Wednesday 13 July 2011

13/7

It can be so frustrating sometimes that some days there are rubbish bets and another day, like today, there are about 8 or 9 strong one a day bets.
Liverpool and Arsenal should win readily despite team news. Arsenal perhaps better for me as Malaysian Football is shocking. Liverpool though have the better attacking force.
Of the Champions League teams, I would look to Maccabi Haifa, Malmo, Rosenborg.
Berdych is 8th in the world playing 138th today.
330 LINGFIELD looks a strong race with 2 under 14/1 for 3 places.
440 UTTOXETER is the perfect profile race but a conditional jockey's maiden hurdle. A clear round should see Pliny safely place in a race where 4 are under 25/1 and there are only 3 places

What to pick?

*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Rosenborg v Breidablik - back Rosenborg in the match odds at 1.16 ****** Plenty of one a days on offer today so difficult to choose. I chose Rosenborg because they are at home, have won last 3 at home scoring 3,2,4 and conceding only 1.



Slovan won 2-0 despite being down to 10 men for a while. It showed their dominance over Borat's boys.

1pm - Guangdong v Liverpool - 1.13 away - here come the big boys in pre-season. Team news key of course with these friendlies. Surely though only complacency and a wholesale change in squad will stop a LIverpool win.
145pm - Malaysia XI v Arsenal - 1.12 away - heat a concern for the nancy boys of Arsenal who fold after going 10 metres north of the Watfiord Gap? Only 2 matches on this Asian Tour should see a winning focus.
530pm - Panathinaikos v FC Kitzbuhel - 1.05 home - no money in the market at all as I write for this friendly. 1.04 at the bookies so expectation for a bloodbath here.
6pm - Maccabi Haifa v Borac Banja Luka - 1.18 home - Champions League qualifier and I do like Maccabi Haifa on my sometime sojourns into Israeli football. As with yesterday, faith in odds and home advantage against Bosnian side. haifa have had 3 friendlies recently in preparation and lost the lot - now that is bad management - let's prepare for a Champions League match by playing teams we will lose to, in order to ingrain our Losing Mentality! In the league at least, Borac like tight games - check out these recent Bosnian league scorelines 0-0,0-0,0-0,0-0,1-0,1-0,1-0,1-0 - perhaps something that Maccabi should be aware of this evening.
6pm - Malmo FF v HB Torshavn - 1.06 home - Sweden v Faroe Islands and a Swedish league in full force. Expect an easy win with goals to nil here for Malmo to enhance the odds. Perhaps halftime/fulltime , or over 4.5 goals
630pm - Bangor City v HJK Helsinki - 1.52 away - I was nearly right with opposing Shamrock yesterday as they only managed a 1-0. Bangor City are a Welsh side away to a Finnish side who are fit as a fiddle as their league is in full force. bangor have not had a match since May, while helsinki have been kept busy and have won 11 of their last 12 matches. Infact, they are on a 10 match winning streak. This 1.52 might look a bit big come 815pm
7pm - Dinamo Zagreb v Neftchi Baku - 1.24 home - Croatia v Azerbaijan in another Champions League match. 2 wins and a loss for Zagreb in recent friendlies. Baku have only played one friendly, losing 1-0
745pm - Linfield v BATE Borisov - 1.4 away - Northern Ireland v Belarus - quite a big away price here.
745pm - Rosenborg v Breidablik - 1.16 home - Norway v Iceland in another Champions League qualifier
1am - New England v Man Utd - 1.36 away - away to Steve Nicol's side and another case of looking for team news . Likely to be a tight match with an eventual United win. Fitness advantage for New England though.
145am - Brazil v Ecuador - 1.28 home - Brazil have a very similar profile to the Argies. 2 draws in first 2 matches and the Argies emphatically won the 3rd match. Brazil have 2 draws so far and scored 2 against Paraguay, albeit the 2nd was after 90 minutes . Ecuador have drawn and lost their 2. Head to heads 1-1 most recent match in 2009 saw BRazil score first.

SKISTAR SWEDISH TENNIS

130pm - Berdych v Gabashvili - 1.12 Berdych. 8th v 138th in the rankings - no head to heads .


250 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Piece By Piece, 9/4 Judas Jo, 12/1 Flying Pickets, 12/1 Koalition.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PIECE BY PIECE (nap) is the one to beat on the strength of his Newcastle form, which looks even better now with the third running okay in last week's July Stakes.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 horses and 2 places and Piece a strong 4/7 shot

320 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hel´s Angel, 4/1 Eijaaz, 6/1 Relative Strength, 7/1 Hernando´s Boy, 7/1 Without Equal, 10/1Guga, 10/1 Lucayan Dancer, 20/1 Hada Men, 50/1 Fiftynotout, 100/1 Charity Fair.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If all three run to form again then HEL'S ANGEL should have no trouble in confirming May course form with Eijaaz and Relative Strength.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 under 10/1 here and Hel's Angel 11/10 favourite

420 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Memory Lane, 5/1 Torun City, 11/2 Bella Montagna, 6/1 Bollin Mandy, 10/1 Hal Of A Lover, 10/1 Kodicil, 12/1 Subramaniam, 25/1 May Burnett, 33/1 Al Furat, 33/1 Fimias.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Memory Lane will be popular on the back of her runaway maiden win but there are less exposed improvers lurking and you'd be disappointed should BELLA MONTAGNA not raise her profile over this extra yardage, a comment which also applies to Bollin Mandy and Torun City.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Hal of a lover is a big market mover into 5/1

540 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sam Lord´s Castle, 4/1 Templeton, 5/1 Takeyourcapoff, 6/1 Karadenia, 7/1 Along Came Casey, 8/1 Amen, 12/1 Steel Park, 25/1 College Sam, 50/1 More Rye, 66/1 Dinger Dan, 66/1 Kestrel, 100/1 Castleinthesky.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SAM LORDS CASTLE is probably one of the slower horses in Ballydoyle, but he has shown enough to suggest he can win a maiden of this standard over this sort of trip. He has most to fear from Templeton. [Kevin Blake]

Ballydoyle price gapper here.

855 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Sin Palo, 5/1 Flycorn, 6/1 Skiing In Tune, 8/1 Brackforde, 12/1 Garden Valley, 16/1 Rosee Des Bieffes, 25/1 Positive News, 50/1 Flying Flame, 50/1 Just Relax, 50/1 Marmisu.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The well-bred SIN PALO will not need to be too far out of the ordinary to make a winning debut in what is no more than an average bumper. Flycorn is the pick of those that have run. [Kevin Blake]

Bumper newcomer has Katy Walsh onboard. Perhaps Flycorn is the best option in a race where there are (currently - remember race time!) 4 under 14/1

330 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Burj Hatta, 2/1 El Muqbil, 12/1 Galloping Queen, 14/1 Lupa Montana, 50/1 Aaranyow, 50/1Alston, 50/1 Cinematique, 50/1 Pani Ash, 100/1 Avon Blaise.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a straight fight between BURJ HATTA and El Muqbil, with preference for the Godolphin runner who had excuses at Chepstow last time.[Andrew Mount]

2 under 14/1 to dominate?

500 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Redvers, 7/1 Wolf Slayer, 8/1 Pippa´s Gift, 8/1 Silly Billy, 8/1 Zalano, 16/1 Jolah, 16/1 Saucy Buck.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wolf Slayer has possibilities now back in trip on Polytrack but it's hard to get away fromREDVERS (nap), who showed a willing attitude when overcoming trouble in-running to score with more in hand than the winning margin suggested at Bath latest.[Andrew Mount]

Pippa's gift is now 7/2 and a strong market mover against what looked like a very strong price gapper in Redvers.

340 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Frosted Grape, 5/1 Calypso Bay, 5/1 Scots Dragoon, 7/1 Minella Bliss, 8/1 Ely Brown, 14/1Mtpockets, 14/1 Pairc Na Gcapall, 14/1 Pheidias, 16/1 Resolute Road, 20/1 Rifleman, 25/1 Makin A Fuss.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FROSTED GRAPE enjoyed a purple patch last summer and the style of last week's win suggests she could be worth following in the up-coming weeks. She gets the vote ahead of Calypso Bay and Minella Bliss.[Stuart Redding]

5 under 14/1 and a 7/4 - - - - 5/1 price gapper makes this Frosted Grape very interesting, as does the connections David Pipe and Conor O'Farrell

440 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Reality Show, 15/8 Pliny, 11/4 Waldsee, 10/1 Elsafeer, 50/1 Point Of Reference, 66/1 Cruise Patrol, 66/1 Shwetzer, 100/1 Satch.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Last year's winning trainer Peter Bowen is in fantastic form and he can strike again with PLINY.Waldsee isn't far behind, while Reality Show is a fascinating newcomer.[Stuart Redding]

Conditional jockey's maiden hurdle usually indicates an " I'll get me coat" race, but the profile is very appealing.

8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 25/1 and 3 under 8/1.



SHORTLIST

1pm - Guangdong v Liverpool - 1.13 away - very obvious of course - team news ideal.
145pm - Malaysia XI v Arsenal - 1.12 away - as above. 745pm start so heat should not be as extreme.
6pm - Maccabi Haifa v Borac Banja Luka - 1.18 home - a hope the Israelis make home advantage count but Bosnian's recent league matches have seen around 7 matches where the highest scoreline was 1-0.
6pm - Malmo FF v HB Torshavn - 1.06 home - a very comfortable win expected. Swedish league in full force so fitness not an issue. 1.06 signals potential for halftime/fulltime at 1.32 and over 2.5 goals minimum at 1.35
745pm - Rosenborg v Breidablik - 1.16 home - Rosenborg are warming up nicely in the Norwegian league with 3 consecutive home wins 3-1, 4-0, 2-0 and an unbeaten overall run of 7. They should find the Icelanders easier than Norwegian league sides in this Champions League qualifier.
SKISTAR SWEDISH TENNIS

130pm - Berdych v Gabashvili - 1.12 Berdych. 8th v 138th in the rankings

250 CATTERICK - 4 horses and 2 places and 4/7 fav in Piece by Piece at around 1.14 to place in an illiquid market.
330 LINGFIELD - faith in the market here and the 2 under 14/1 -both Burj Hatta and El Muqbil are 1.08 to place ( add them to Malmo perhaps?)
340 UTTOXETER - I was quite tempted by Frosted Grape here but 1.67 to place - the confidence is not shared in the place only market.
440 UTTOXETER - the best and worst race of the day. A conditional jockeys maiden hurdle but an outstanding profile. 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 25/1 and 3 under 8/1 - Pliny is the fav at the moment - default to him for easy decision making?





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