1/8

I'm going to chance the win only on FC Inter today , although I acknowledge that over 1.5 goals has a greater chance of success.

*****ONE A DAY 430pm -FC Inter v RoPS - back FC Inter in the match odds at 1.19*****




All of the German Cup matches yesterday featured over 2.5 goals , so in 3 days , only 2 matches have finished under 2.5 goals ( and they both finished 2-0).
Dermot Weld did it again at Galway!

430pm - FC Inter v RoPS - 1.19 home
HEAD TO HEADS

22.05.2011	D1	RoPS Rovaniemi	3-4	Inter Turku
01.08.2009	D1	Inter Turku	4-0	RoPS Rovaniemi
08.07.2009	Cup	Inter Turku	2-0	RoPS Rovaniemi
07.05.2009	D1	RoPS Rovaniemi	0-2	Inter Turku
18.02.2009	LC	RoPS Rovaniemi	0-3	Inter Turku

Clean sweep from Inter turko and an ability to score 4 in 2 consecutive matches , albeit nothing in 2010.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 12th of 12th. Both teams have played 16 matches, where others have played 17 or 18.

HOME TEAM INTER

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWWWDW - solid home form. Draws against 7th and 10th saw a recent 4-4 draw saw Inter 2-0 down, 3-1 down and 4-2 down

RECENT FORM OVERALL -WWWWLWDWLWD - only losses against 1st and 4th

GOAL TRENDS - 10 of last 12 matches over 2.5 goals - 8,5,6,7,6 scored in total in last 5 matches.

STREAKS - 12 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - ROPS

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLWLLLLL - draw was 3-3 against 6th and win was 0-4 against 7th. 2,6,10,3,2 scored in last 5 away matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDDLDLDLLL - draws against 4th, 6th, 10th and 11th

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 6 losses, 1 draw, 1 clean sheet, 1.25 scored, 3 conceded on average away from home.

STREAKS - 11 overall without a win, 5 away without a win, 7 away without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - ROPS are unlikely to win away , and a draw looks the best case for them. Goals could be a distinct possibility here and over 3.5 goals for the speculator could come in, albeit the markets might be too illiquid ( go to bookies instead?) Should be a comfortable home win and goals the value call if the markets are liquid.

6pm - GAIS v Halmstads - 1.42 home
HEAD TO HEADS

16.04.2011	D1	Halmstads BK	0-2	GAIS
20.01.2011	CF	Halmstads BK	0-1	GAIS
22.09.2010	D1	GAIS	1-1	Halmstads BK
18.04.2010	D1	Halmstads BK	3-0	GAIS
01.11.2009	D1	Halmstads BK	1-3	GAIS
12.07.2009	D1	GAIS	1-1	Halmstads BK

Only one match lost by gais. A draw could be a possibility. A 90th minute for 1-0 in the friendly, and Halmstads got 2 men sent off and Gais missed a penalty for the 0-2 away win, so that 1.42 is not looking all that appealing.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 16th - that is why I include league position as it can point to reasoning behind the 1.42 for the home side.

HOME TEAM - GAIS

RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWWWWLW - losses against 2nd and 8th. 2-3 against 8th rather flattered gais as they were 0-3 down and scored a late 90th+ minute goal. Have beaten 9th, 10th, 12th, 13th, 14th and playing 16th today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLWDWLWWL - only 2 draws this season, both away and both 1-1. Inconsistency recently and that has come really from poor away form.

GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals at home. Average 2 scored and 0.77 conceded at home. 4 of last 6 overall have been over 2.5 goals, the 2 exceptions were 2-0. Gais have conceded in their last 4 and have failed to score in only 3 of their 18 matches this season.

STREAKS - 9 at home without a draw - 7 overall.

AWAY TEAM - HALMSTADS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLDLLL - says it all - draw 0-0 against 14th. Have conceded 3-4-3 against 2nd, 3rd and 4th ( playing 6th today) and conceded 3-2-3-2-2 against 7th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLDDLLLLLL - most recent draws 0-0 at home to 10th and 0-0 away to 14th. Sole win at home to 15th - 1-0.

GOAL TRENDS - 67% over 2.5 goals away from home. 0.66 scored 2.44 conceded away on average. Last 6 matches all over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 9 matches away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - in head to heads recently, Halmstad have been unlucky to lose 1-0 and 2-0 ( 2 red cards last time leaves us questioning the scoreline with parity in team size) BUT we face that conundrum that comes up regularly. Is head to heads irrelevant in the shadow of recent form which overwhelmingly sees Halmstad opposably away from home, conceding 2-3 readily. The 1.42 is a little high with that in mind ( it should really be lower for a team so consistently beaten away by 2 or 3 goals) and perhaps factors in the head to heads? The absence of a draw sees a lay the draw have some real potential but the absence of a draw is generally because Gais win at home, and you guessed it, Halmstad lose away from home.

730pm - Braunschweig v B Munich - 1.35 away - home side promoted to Division 2 and have won their 2 matches scoring 3 and 2 - we all know Bayern Munich and team news would be ideal as there is a ? over the fitness of Ribery and Robben and confidence will be enhanced with those 2 on the pitch. Yes, having read the Bayern website, Ribery and Robben are missing. Over 1.5 goals will cover any potential shocks ( as has happened in the Cup already where neutral bets were successful)
2am - Brazil U20 v Austria U20 - 1.42 home- I have mentioned before that we should be taking a contrarian standpoint on these tournaments ( women's world cup, under 17's world cup) as the name "Brazil" does not resonate as it would if this were the first team . A 1-1 draw v Egypt perhaps proves my point. BUT we enter must win territory now for the Brazilians? And you saw with Rangers that must wins tend to win.


350 NAAS

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Royal Reveille, 7/1 Derinlaur, 8/1 Quiet Thought, 9/1 Shanrod, 10/1 Blazing Beacon, 10/1 Island Oscar, 10/1 Larkwing, 16/1 Loukaja, 50/1 Persian Buck.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The famed Walsh clan and namesake Mark will be delighted with the paucity of rivals in any sort of form taking on ROYAL REVEILLE (nap), who looks a good thing here. Nothing against him is any way solid. [Johnny Ward]

Big price gapper - 3 under 16/1 now with royal at 4/7 and near rivals 4/1

450 NAAS

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Maunsells Duke, 8/1 No Trimmings, 8/1 Ultra Cool, 9/1 Webcast, 10/1 An Mhi, 10/1 Curl Cat, 12/1 Gagnant, 12/1 Lord Kenmare, 12/1 Spirit Of Xaar, 12/1 Star Links, 14/1 Cheers Buddy, 16/1 Eur Elusive, 33/1 Fabbiaano, 33/1 Kalacan, 33/1 Lord Rathvinden.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Maunsells Duke is sure to be very popular under his penalty, but he has a poor draw to overcome and preference is given to EUR ELUSIVE at what will be a much bigger price. [Kevin Blake]

6/4 - - - 8/1 price gapper here for Dermot Weld , this time in Naas. Poor draw to overcome but a massive price gap.

330 NEWTON ABBOT

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Two Kisses, 7/4 That´ll Do, 7/2 Barizan, 12/1 Daneva, 66/1 Bull Market.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It would be no surprise to see That'll Do bounce back from his disappointment at Worcester but, even if he does, C&D winner TWO KISSES (nap) may prove a tough nut to crack. [Chris Wilson]

3 under 66/1 for 2 places - simply a probability race , albeit a novices chase.

215 RIPON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Mehdi, 7/2 Bapak Pintar, 8/1 Alfred George, 20/1 Indyend, 25/1 Margo Channing.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alfred George is a likely type on pedigree and there should be improvement to come from Bapak Pintar but it is difficult to get away from the downgraded MEHDI.[Frank Carter]

Obvious one in Mehdi now 1/4 with Bapak now 4/1

810 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Polperro, 5/2 General Synod, 11/2 Ashiri, 7/1 Haman, 20/1 Broken Eagle, 20/1 Queen´s Silk, 33/1 Fairling, 33/1 Palazzo Bianco, 66/1 Tiger´s Pride, 100/1 Miracle Play.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Polperro should be suited by this easier test at the trip but GENERAL SYNOD did well in a decent 1m maiden at Newbury on his reappearance in the spring and is well worth another try at this trip after being highly tried over it when last seen in May.[Emily Weber]

Polperro has the form in the book, and the experience to have a good chance of placing again in this maiden. 4 under 14/1 currently

SHORTLIST

430pm - FC Inter v RoPS - 1.19 home - 1.1 over 1.5 goals and 1.35 over 2.5 goals looks very generous with all of the evidence to hand. A likelihood too that FC Inter will win by 2 or 3.

730pm - Braunschweig v B Munich - 1.35 away - a home side with a solid start to the season and a jam packed home venue against a Bayern side missing Robben and Ribery. Potential shock on the cards? Hmm, if you think so, then neutral goals bet and all bar 2 of tens of German Cup matches have finished over 2.5 goals. 1.18 over 1.5 goals is a little illiqud at present alas.

350 NAAS - Royal Reveille is 1.09 to place

450 NAAS - Maunsells Duke is some price gapper here and around 1.3 to place.

330 NEWTON ABBOT - write down the 3 horses under 66/1 on 3 pieces of paper, put them in a hat, and pick one out. As relevant a method of deciding which to pick as anything else! 3 should fight it out for 2 places. Play the probabilities.

215 RIPON - Mehdi 1.29 to win and 1.06 to place - trust a maiden?

810 WINDSOR - Polperro to place looks worth a chance - again we can argue for probability based on current market ( albeit some 8 hours til race time)

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

430pm - FC Inter v RoPS - 1.19 home - 1.1 over 1.5 goals - chance the win for Inter or the safety net, and lower odds, of over 1.5 goals.

330 NEWTON ABBOTT - I cannot put forward a horse here suffice to say that 3 should fight it out for 2 places.

810 WINDSOR - Polperro to place looks strong albeit with plenty of time to go.

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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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