Thursday, 18 August 2011

18/8

Strong bets for me today? 245 Stratford sees 5 horses and 3 places - superb probability. Midnight fun might be worth risking against the 1.11 to place favourite, at better odds of around 1.35. Only 2 horses to beat in a race where 3 are under 14/1

Next best is Eagle Canyon in the 455 Tipperary for the O'Brien's. Interesting that Joseph is here and not at York

Paris St germain could knock in a few this evening - 1.11 to beat Differdange from Luxembourg. Perhaps back PSG along with Anna Svelta at Stratford?

*****ONE A DAY - 245 STRATFORD - Midnight Fun to place only - take Betfair SP as the markets are illiquid and expect, I hope, 1.35 *****


Seville placed 3rd but that's what place only betting is about. Bayern won to nil and the info I got about Robben being out was erroneous. He chipped in with a goal as well. A nice 2-0 win.

5pm - Lokomotiv v Spartak Trnava - 1.29 home - Europa League qualifier - Russia v Slovakia. 2 0-0's recently for Lokomotiv in the league but prior to that they were banging in the goals. First leg match so HOME side ideal score is 0-0, 1-0 or any scoreline to nil and AWAY side ideal score is 0-0 or any goal scored away .

5pm -
VMFD Zalgiris v Dainava - 1.23 home
HEAD TO HEADS
22.05.2011 D1 Dainava Alytus 0-2 Zalgiris Vilnius
03.11.2001 D1 Dainava Alytus 2-2 Zalgiris Vilnius
Looks as if the away side are returning to the top flight
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 7th

HOME TEAM - ZALGIRIS

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWLDDW - loss v top side 0-1, and draws v 8th and 4th , 1-1 and 0-0 . Why the sudden halt in solid winning form at home?

RECENT FORM OVERALL - first thing to note is only 2 losses all season for Zalgiris.12 clean sheets as well and a lot of 1-0 wins. DLWWDWWWDDWWW - good unbeaten run.2 0-0 and 3 1-1 draws this season. We can infer that they have a relatively solid defensive unit.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws, 4 clean sheets at home.2.67 scored and 0.56 conceded on average at home. And overall, a superb 0.48 conceded on average.

STREAKS - 11 overall in the league without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - DAINAVA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWWLDWWWL - wins against 4th, 5th, 6th, 10th, 12th and remember that is away from home. Reasonable away form.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWDWWWLWL - losses v 5th and 9th recently and wins against 4th, 6th, 11th ,12th recently.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw, 3 clean sheets, 1.2 scored, 1.4 conceded on average.

STREAKS - 6 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - another small league of only 12 teams and over familiarity could bring about shocks. A new side to the top flight, I was surprised at relative solidity for the away side. Recent losses overall against 5th and 9th could be a sign of recent weakness which Zalgiris should exploit. Zalgiris have a superb defensive record as witnessed by an average concession rate this season of 0.48 goals. If we are looking to a Zalgiris win, perhaps then we can look to a win to nil, without spanking Dainava who themselves have been quite good defensively. 1-0, 2-0?

530pm -
HJK Helsinki v Schalke - 1.6 away - HJK out of the Champions League at the first hurdle and demoted to the Europa League face a decent german outfit in Schalke. Remember that this is the first leg . Tough to weigh up this match but a logical assumption that German Bundesliga a lot tougher than Finnish League.
7pm -
Besiktas v Alania Vladikavkaz - 1.32 home - Alania are leading Russian Division 2 ( must have got in through a cup route?) and recently have kept things tight - 10 of last 12 matches have featured 2 goals or fewer. Turkish league yet to get going . Besiktas have won 6 and drawn 1 of their last 7 home matches in all competitions.WWWWLWL in the Europa League at home since 2010 - losses against Porto and Dinamo Kiev.
Another toughie to weigh up as we have a fit lower league Russian outfit and a home side ( albeit reknowned at home) whose season is yet to start.
730pm -
Fulham v Dnipro - 1.62 home - Fulham have won their last 8 home matches in the Europa League, dating back to December 2009, and have not conceded in their last 3. A sign they have a definite tactic at home. To win without conceding. Fulham have not conceded in their last 4 matches ( 3 in the Europa league and one in the Premiership) at home.
Dnipro are not regular Europa league contenders. Recent Europa league away form saw a 2-1 away loss v Subotika and a 0-0 draw v Lech Poznan in August 2010. The latter scoreline suits Fulham as no away goal will have been scored.
The Fulham record at home really stands out doesn't it? As ever in these leagues, we have 2 teams who have never met before and no idea how either will cope against a team from a different league. Plzen's win over Copenhagen reminds us that nothing is cut and dried when teams meet for the first time.
Logic of course points to a Fulham side with solid home form in the toughest league in the world ( to be fair our Sunday League is tough, especially having to get up for the early matches), and winning home form in this competition.
745pm -
AEK v Dinamo Tbilisi - 1.5 home
WWDLDWDL in the Europa League since 2009 for AEK at home.They have only lost 2 matches at home against Everton and Zenit.
LLDWDWDW away for Dinamo Tblisi - wins against Gelfe, Milsami and KR - those well known, ahem, sides. Tblisi have won their last 5 in all competitions and AEK have only really been playing friendlies.
Logically? Greek team with a defensive plan and we are likely to see a protracted 0-0? A latish first goal. Again I cannot tell you how good Tblisi is. That is the problem.
745pm -
Differdange v Paris St-G - 1.11 away - Luxembourg v France. WDDL in the Europa league at home for Differdange. Last loss was 0-3 v Olympiakos Volous.
WWLLWDDDL for PSG away in the Europa League recently. Draws were all score draws and that will suite them today as they will have the away goal. Loss was v Benfica and PSG did score first.
6 draws in their last 8 matches in the Europa League overall for PSG.Recent form in the French league 1-0 loss and 1-1 draw.
Differdange were beaten 3-0 home and away in their last Europa League venture - PSG are certainly capable of that and the 1.11 suggests they will - but they do like their draws in this competition, BUT then they have not met teams from a poor Luxembourg league before!!
745pm -
Hearts v Tottenham - 1.67 away - I always think is is prudent to side with the Premiership side whenever SPL and Premiership meet.
Hearts have not had a draw in 9 Europa League home matches going all the way back to 2000. WWLWLLLWW - last 2 wins against Dinamo Zagreb and Paksi were 2-0 and 4-1.
Spuds away from home in the Europa League are DWDWWDLWL - losses recently against Shaktar Donetsk and Udinese back in 2008 and 2009 were both 2-0.
1-0 away loss to Motherwell and 3-0 home win v Aberdeen so far for Hearts in the league.
Spuds have only played friendlies recently and won their last 3 0-3, 2-3, 2-1
I return to my idea that the English Premiership sides are far better than the SPL sides as witnessed by recent losses for Celtic and Rangers when they play Premiership teams.
Racing Post goes with the goals angle here, but importance for Hearts is to not concede and that will be their tactic this evening. Spuds personnel though are good, especially in attack and John lennon and Bale would be good to see in the team, as would Van Der vaart who is superb.
8pm -
Lazio v Rabotnicki - 1.17 home - WDWDDWLWL - losses recently at home against Salzburg and Levski Sofia in the Europa League.
DLWDLWWW for Rabotnicki away v Trans, Juvenes and Anorthosis. Liverpool in 2010 beat Rabotnicki 2-0 , one goal of which was a penalty so this might hint at Rabotnicki not being as easy prey as the 1.17 suggests. ( I am sure Liverpool would have been similarly priced . As we are dealing with an Italian side at home who would ideally like not to concede, can we put faith in Italian defensive football, and this assume another win to nil?
lazio are yet to start their SERIA A season but have won their last 3, all friendlies, at home, the last 2, against Aris and Real Sociedad, 2-0.
Again I refer to Copenhagen v Plzen - shocks cannot be discounted but faith in Italian defense in a home tie where they will be seeking a clean sheet.
805pm -
Celtic v Sion - 1.55 home
Celtic have only lost 2 at home in the Europa League matches they have played thus far.Since 2009, it has been draw (1-1 v Rapid Wien), loss ( 0-1 to Hamburg), Win, win, 2-0's against Hapoel Tel Aviv and Utrecht.
Sion away in the Europa League have posted DLDLD from 2006 to 2009. Sion have scored 1-1-1-2 ( 2 against Fenerbahce in 2009) away in their last 4 matches which is good of course for an away side in the first leg.
CEltic have won their 2 Premier league fixtures, and Sion have WLWDD in their recent Swiss league fixtures.
Logic again may dictate matters as we have no head to heads. The SPL is stronger than 10 team Swiss league. Celtic will be seeking to replicate their last 2 home matches in the Europa League - 2-0 wins . Sion may be able to get in a blow as they have shown in Europa matches away ( albeit last one was 2009)

9pm -
Atl Madrid v Guimaraes - 1.38 home - no Aguero now for Athletico. How will they play without him? Home side have played plenty of recent Europa League matches and posted, at home, DDDWWDWLW - solid results - the loss was 2-3 v Aris.
How much of a difference will the loss of Aguero be to Madrid? That is the question. he scored in 2 of the last 3 Europa League home matches.
WLLLD for Guimaraes in the Europa League away from home, dating back as far as 2005. Draw was 0-0 v Mitdjylland.
It seems that Reyes is stepping up to the plate as regards scoring goals which is a good sign. Forlan remains too and ideally Madrid should find Guimaraes well within their compass. A 0-0 draw is possible, and Guimaraes recently kept Porto down to a single goal ( albeit at home and Guimaraes at home are solid)


505 BELLEWSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Inspector Clouseau, 3/1 Jacksonslady, 7/2 Dumitas, 14/1 Spring Hawk, 33/1 Duchamp Jack, 100/1 Bobs Way.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INSPECTOR CLOUSEAU comes out on top on figures and Willie Mullins challenger despite dropping down in trip following his pleasing effort over further at Galway is taken over the mare Jacksonlady. [Brian Fleming]

Mullins/Townend favourite here and an obvious probability race - 3 horses for 2 places.

640 BELLEWSTOWN


BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Gormanstown Cuckoo, 3/1 Bandra Bullet, 8/1 Ardnavalley, 8/1 Hollyville, 10/1 Taken Twice, 10/1 Warrants A Name, 14/1 Rowanville Lady, 14/1 Shanann Star, 16/1 De Bartishell, 16/1 Emerald Pearl, 20/1 Away Up North, 20/1 Ironsinthefire, 20/1 She Will Return, 20/1 Walkonabubble, 33/1 Whereisthemoneynow, 33/1 Yanavita.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This staying maiden could be narrowed right down and GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO [Nap], placed in three of his last four starts over hurdles, looks the solution under Davy Russell over Bandra Bullet and Barry Geraghty. [Brian Fleming]

I like Davey Russell and Gormanstown Cuckoo , already 2nd twice, looks to have a good chance of continuing the place only form in this big field maiden hurdle.

One of only 4 under 14/1 currently.

815 BELLEWSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Maller Tree, 5/1 Mike Frazer, 5/1 Young Dale, 6/1 Bridgets Pet, 6/1 Butterfly Lion, 14/1 Not Today, 14/1 Summer Salts, 20/1 Missus Archie, 33/1 Superstar Status.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mike Frazer is the sole newcomer in this bumper and is one to watch in the market with Nina Carberry booked but the consistent MALLER TREE looks difficult to oppose on overall form with Young Dale probably looking the main threat. [Brian Fleming]

A lady rider's maiden race this one and 5 horses set to dominate. A bumper so ideally a market inspection nearer 8pm is the call here.

2 maidens and an amateur riders race opens the card in a tough Epsom!

520 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Kack Handed, 7/4 Franco Is My Name, 10/1 Titch Strider, 16/1 Doctor Ric, 16/1 Rainsborough, 16/1 The Society Man, 20/1 Ahjayah, 40/1 Cariboo Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only two of these can be seriously considered. Kack Handed sets a reasonable standard but doesn't have a very good strike-rate and needs to bounce back from a below-par run. FRANCO IS MY NAME is fairly useful on the Flat and may be good enough to make a winning start over hurdles.[Chris Wilson]

2 set to dominate this novices hurdle and Kack Handed would get my provisional vote based on experience. 8 runners - 3 places - 3 under 10/1

330 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Fol Hollow, 4/1 Northern Bolt, 6/1 The Jailer, 16/1 Andrasta, 16/1 Charlie Delta.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FOL HOLLOW, who's always been reliable in the past when striking form and tries hard, will only have had his confidence boosted by winning again, and is the ideal type for short-price backers at this level. Another furlong or softer ground would have been ideal for Northern Bolt, but he could be the one for the forecast if turned out again after a sound enough run at Carlisle yesterday.[Graham Wheldon]

2 to dominate? Only 2 places and a claimer should give us reasonable place odds on Fol Hollow.

515 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Jeu De Vivre, 3/1 Sharp Sovereign, 5/1 Morning Time, 8/1 Stags Leap, 10/1 Acclaben, 12/1 Record Breaker, 12/1 Regent´s Secret, 16/1 Middlemarch.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sharp Sovereign continues to run well in defeat but may again find one too strong in the shape of JEU DE VIVRE, who's run well twice off this mark in the past nine days.[Graham Wheldon]

Johnston favourite and now a 7 runner - 3 place race augurs well for place only backers.

245 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alla Svelta, 3/1 Teenage Kicks, 4/1 With Grace, 9/2 Midnight Fun, 14/1 Dot Or Feather, 14/1 Ironical, 33/1 Gouranga Society, 100/1 Sunrise Court.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's a suspicion that current handicap marks may flatter one or two of these but ALLA SVELTA could be an exception, having looked a horse with considerable potential ever since chasing home the very smart Dare Me at Exeter last November.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

5 horses remain and still 3 places on Betfair makes this a superb probability race. Mignight fun and Teenage kicks the 2 others under 2/1 in the place only market. Only have to beat 2 to place.

455 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Eagle Canyon, 6/4 Olfa, 5/1 Sovereign Secure, 8/1 Judies Child, 25/1 Enough Is Enough, 33/1 Misty Lane, 33/1 Oh Marcius, 100/1 The Squatter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This can be narrowed down to a handful of contenders, but that doesn't make it any more appealing. OLFA has fewer marks against her than Eagle Canyon and she is given marginal preference. [Kevin Blake]

O'Brien mafia on eagle Canyon in an 8 runner - 3 place race where 4 are under 25/1 in the betting forecast.

4 under 50/1 in the live betting.

200 YORK

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Crown Dependency, 15/2 Bogart, 8/1 Red Art, 10/1 West Leake Diman, 12/1 Hestian, 14/1 Magic City, 16/1 Electric Qatar, 16/1 Parc De Launay, 20/1 Gerfalcon, 20/1 Moustache, 20/1 Ponty Acclaim, 20/1 Roger Sez, 25/1 Byronic Hero, 25/1 Miss Work Of Art, 33/1 Apostle, 33/1 Ewell Place, 33/1 Letsgoroundagain, 33/1 Worthington, 40/1 Hamza, 66/1 Ortea.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good-quality renewal with a number having run creditably in higher class and seven holding Group-race entries in the weeks to come. Both remarks apply to CROWN DEPENDENCY (nap) who has not really had things go his way at Royal Ascot or Goodwood and has an obvious chance of hitting the jackpot back at 6f at a slightly lower level. A low draw seemed an advantage yesterday. Bogart and Red Art could be the pick of his rivals. [Frank Carter]

Big price gapper in this 2 year old race. 2/1 - - - 7/1 - Hestian the market mover. Hannon/Hughes - trust this 2 year old in a race of 20 2 year olds - yikes!

415 YORK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wild Coco, 4/1 Field Of Miracles, 5/1 Mirror Lake, 6/1 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Amazing Beauty, 9/1 Spin, 14/1 Set To Music, 25/1 Cracking Lass, 40/1 Certral.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may well be between WILD COCO and Mirror Lake. The return to 1m4f on easier ground than last time may well help Wild Coco rediscover her previous winning form from a 1m4f Newmarket Listed race, in which case she is very much the one to beat. [Mel Cullinan]

7/4 - - -9/2 in the live betting - 9 runners - 3 places -


SHORTLIST

5pm - VMFD Zalgiris v Dainava - 1.23 home - strong defensive unit at home could see a win to nil here against returnees to the top flight.

7pm - Besiktas v Alania Vladikavkaz - 1.32 home - very impressive historical home form in the Europa League for Besiktas. Alania the unknown though.

730pm - Fulham v Dnipro - 1.62 home - Fulham are unlikely to lose and have a good recent habit of not conceding at home. Perhaps 0-0 insurance bet as we back Fulham in the match odds?

745pm - Differdange v Paris St-G - 1.11 away - Differdange impressed against Tblisi, but what of this significant step up to the French Top flight. PSG propensity to draw in Europa ties hopefully ends as they face far inferior opponents.

745pm - Hearts v Tottenham - 1.67 away - highly defensive set up likely for Hearts this evening could signal a back of 0-0 and Spuds , the latter having the far better players.

8pm - Lazio v Rabotnicki - 1.17 home - Liverpool only beat Rabotnicki 2-0 at Anfield and one of those goals was a penalty. The 0-0 therefore would be a value bet for 15 minutes or so as Rabotnicki hope to keep Lazio quiet. 1.17 is layable too if you think Rabot can keep Lazio quiet for a concerted period

9pm - Atl Madrid v Guimaraes - 1.38 home - a likely eventual Madrid win this evening against opponents who find it hard on the road when they are in Europa League

505 BELLEWSTOWN - 3 horses and 2 places and Inspector Clouseau would interest -and as I write, 1.3 to place is very appealing ( albeit the market is illiquid)

815 BELLEWSTOWN - Maller Tree should fill the places here

520 FONTWELL - Kack Handed would be my initial choice in this novices hurdle - should be around 1.25 to place

515 HAMILTON - 7 runners -3 places and jeu De Vivre a Mark Johnston market leader - 1.34 to place

245 STRATFORD - best probability race by a mile - 5 runners - 3 places - Alla Svelta 1.11 to place but Midnight fun has won last 3 , and at 4/1, could place in the first 3 in this race ( only 2 to beat) - only 3 under 14/1

455 TIPPERARY - Eagle Canyon looks poised to swoop for a place here in this 8 runner race for 3 places.





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