back-lay-trade-horses-football: 18/8

Strong bets for me today? 245 Stratford sees 5 horses and 3 places - superb probability. Midnight fun might be worth risking against the 1.11 to place favourite, at better odds of around 1.35. Only 2 horses to beat in a race where 3 are under 14/1

Next best is Eagle Canyon in the 455 Tipperary for the O'Brien's. Interesting that Joseph is here and not at York

Paris St germain could knock in a few this evening - 1.11 to beat Differdange from Luxembourg. Perhaps back PSG along with Anna Svelta at Stratford?

*****ONE A DAY - 245 STRATFORD - Midnight Fun to place only - take Betfair SP as the markets are illiquid and expect, I hope, 1.35 *****

Seville placed 3rd but that's what place only betting is about. Bayern won to nil and the info I got about Robben being out was erroneous. He chipped in with a goal as well. A nice 2-0 win.

5pm - Lokomotiv v Spartak Trnava - 1.29 home - Europa League qualifier - Russia v Slovakia. 2 0-0's recently for Lokomotiv in the league but prior to that they were banging in the goals. First leg match so HOME side ideal score is 0-0, 1-0 or any scoreline to nil and AWAY side ideal score is 0-0 or any goal scored away .

5pm - VMFD Zalgiris v Dainava - 1.23 home
HEAD TO HEADS

22.05.2011	D1	Dainava Alytus	0-2	Zalgiris Vilnius
03.11.2001	D1	Dainava Alytus	2-2	Zalgiris Vilnius

Looks as if the away side are returning to the top flight

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 7th

HOME TEAM - ZALGIRIS

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWLDDW - loss v top side 0-1, and draws v 8th and 4th , 1-1 and 0-0 . Why the sudden halt in solid winning form at home?

RECENT FORM OVERALL - first thing to note is only 2 losses all season for Zalgiris.12 clean sheets as well and a lot of 1-0 wins. DLWWDWWWDDWWW - good unbeaten run.2 0-0 and 3 1-1 draws this season. We can infer that they have a relatively solid defensive unit.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws, 4 clean sheets at home.2.67 scored and 0.56 conceded on average at home. And overall, a superb 0.48 conceded on average.

STREAKS - 11 overall in the league without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - DAINAVA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWWLDWWWL - wins against 4th, 5th, 6th, 10th, 12th and remember that is away from home. Reasonable away form.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWDWWWLWL - losses v 5th and 9th recently and wins against 4th, 6th, 11th ,12th recently.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 4 losses, 1 draw, 3 clean sheets, 1.2 scored, 1.4 conceded on average.

STREAKS - 6 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - another small league of only 12 teams and over familiarity could bring about shocks. A new side to the top flight, I was surprised at relative solidity for the away side. Recent losses overall against 5th and 9th could be a sign of recent weakness which Zalgiris should exploit. Zalgiris have a superb defensive record as witnessed by an average concession rate this season of 0.48 goals. If we are looking to a Zalgiris win, perhaps then we can look to a win to nil, without spanking Dainava who themselves have been quite good defensively. 1-0, 2-0?

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Inspector Clouseau, 3/1 Jacksonslady, 7/2 Dumitas, 14/1 Spring Hawk, 33/1 Duchamp Jack, 100/1 Bobs Way.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INSPECTOR CLOUSEAU comes out on top on figures and Willie Mullins challenger despite dropping down in trip following his pleasing effort over further at Galway is taken over the mare Jacksonlady. [Brian Fleming]

Mullins/Townend favourite here and an obvious probability race - 3 horses for 2 places.

640 BELLEWSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Gormanstown Cuckoo, 3/1 Bandra Bullet, 8/1 Ardnavalley, 8/1 Hollyville, 10/1 Taken Twice, 10/1 Warrants A Name, 14/1 Rowanville Lady, 14/1 Shanann Star, 16/1 De Bartishell, 16/1 Emerald Pearl, 20/1 Away Up North, 20/1 Ironsinthefire, 20/1 She Will Return, 20/1 Walkonabubble, 33/1 Whereisthemoneynow, 33/1 Yanavita.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This staying maiden could be narrowed right down and GORMANSTOWN CUCKOO [Nap], placed in three of his last four starts over hurdles, looks the solution under Davy Russell over Bandra Bullet and Barry Geraghty. [Brian Fleming]

I like Davey Russell and Gormanstown Cuckoo , already 2nd twice, looks to have a good chance of continuing the place only form in this big field maiden hurdle.

One of only 4 under 14/1 currently.

815 BELLEWSTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Maller Tree, 5/1 Mike Frazer, 5/1 Young Dale, 6/1 Bridgets Pet, 6/1 Butterfly Lion, 14/1 Not Today, 14/1 Summer Salts, 20/1 Missus Archie, 33/1 Superstar Status.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mike Frazer is the sole newcomer in this bumper and is one to watch in the market with Nina Carberry booked but the consistent MALLER TREE looks difficult to oppose on overall form with Young Dale probably looking the main threat. [Brian Fleming]

A lady rider's maiden race this one and 5 horses set to dominate. A bumper so ideally a market inspection nearer 8pm is the call here.

2 maidens and an amateur riders race opens the card in a tough Epsom!

520 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Kack Handed, 7/4 Franco Is My Name, 10/1 Titch Strider, 16/1 Doctor Ric, 16/1 Rainsborough, 16/1 The Society Man, 20/1 Ahjayah, 40/1 Cariboo Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only two of these can be seriously considered. Kack Handed sets a reasonable standard but doesn't have a very good strike-rate and needs to bounce back from a below-par run. FRANCO IS MY NAME is fairly useful on the Flat and may be good enough to make a winning start over hurdles.[Chris Wilson]

2 set to dominate this novices hurdle and Kack Handed would get my provisional vote based on experience. 8 runners - 3 places - 3 under 10/1

330 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Fol Hollow, 4/1 Northern Bolt, 6/1 The Jailer, 16/1 Andrasta, 16/1 Charlie Delta.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FOL HOLLOW, who's always been reliable in the past when striking form and tries hard, will only have had his confidence boosted by winning again, and is the ideal type for short-price backers at this level. Another furlong or softer ground would have been ideal for Northern Bolt, but he could be the one for the forecast if turned out again after a sound enough run at Carlisle yesterday.[Graham Wheldon]

2 to dominate? Only 2 places and a claimer should give us reasonable place odds on Fol Hollow.

515 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Jeu De Vivre, 3/1 Sharp Sovereign, 5/1 Morning Time, 8/1 Stags Leap, 10/1 Acclaben, 12/1 Record Breaker, 12/1 Regent´s Secret, 16/1 Middlemarch.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sharp Sovereign continues to run well in defeat but may again find one too strong in the shape of JEU DE VIVRE, who's run well twice off this mark in the past nine days.[Graham Wheldon]

Johnston favourite and now a 7 runner - 3 place race augurs well for place only backers.

245 STRATFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alla Svelta, 3/1 Teenage Kicks, 4/1 With Grace, 9/2 Midnight Fun, 14/1 Dot Or Feather, 14/1 Ironical, 33/1 Gouranga Society, 100/1 Sunrise Court.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's a suspicion that current handicap marks may flatter one or two of these but ALLA SVELTA could be an exception, having looked a horse with considerable potential ever since chasing home the very smart Dare Me at Exeter last November.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

5 horses remain and still 3 places on Betfair makes this a superb probability race. Mignight fun and Teenage kicks the 2 others under 2/1 in the place only market. Only have to beat 2 to place.

455 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Eagle Canyon, 6/4 Olfa, 5/1 Sovereign Secure, 8/1 Judies Child, 25/1 Enough Is Enough, 33/1 Misty Lane, 33/1 Oh Marcius, 100/1 The Squatter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This can be narrowed down to a handful of contenders, but that doesn't make it any more appealing. OLFA has fewer marks against her than Eagle Canyon and she is given marginal preference. [Kevin Blake]

O'Brien mafia on eagle Canyon in an 8 runner - 3 place race where 4 are under 25/1 in the betting forecast.

4 under 50/1 in the live betting.

200 YORK

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Crown Dependency, 15/2 Bogart, 8/1 Red Art, 10/1 West Leake Diman, 12/1 Hestian, 14/1 Magic City, 16/1 Electric Qatar, 16/1 Parc De Launay, 20/1 Gerfalcon, 20/1 Moustache, 20/1 Ponty Acclaim, 20/1 Roger Sez, 25/1 Byronic Hero, 25/1 Miss Work Of Art, 33/1 Apostle, 33/1 Ewell Place, 33/1 Letsgoroundagain, 33/1 Worthington, 40/1 Hamza, 66/1 Ortea.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good-quality renewal with a number having run creditably in higher class and seven holding Group-race entries in the weeks to come. Both remarks apply to CROWN DEPENDENCY (nap) who has not really had things go his way at Royal Ascot or Goodwood and has an obvious chance of hitting the jackpot back at 6f at a slightly lower level. A low draw seemed an advantage yesterday. Bogart and Red Art could be the pick of his rivals. [Frank Carter]

Big price gapper in this 2 year old race. 2/1 - - - 7/1 - Hestian the market mover. Hannon/Hughes - trust this 2 year old in a race of 20 2 year olds - yikes!

415 YORK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wild Coco, 4/1 Field Of Miracles, 5/1 Mirror Lake, 6/1 Polly´s Mark, 13/2 Amazing Beauty, 9/1 Spin, 14/1 Set To Music, 25/1 Cracking Lass, 40/1 Certral.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This may well be between WILD COCO and Mirror Lake. The return to 1m4f on easier ground than last time may well help Wild Coco rediscover her previous winning form from a 1m4f Newmarket Listed race, in which case she is very much the one to beat. [Mel Cullinan]

7/4 - - -9/2 in the live betting - 9 runners - 3 places -

SHORTLIST