back-lay-trade-horses-football: 31/8

Tough day today really. Dubawi dancer is in a perfect 8 runner race for place only purposes. But as a multiple handicap winner, his winning streak will end soon, and at 8/11 the market tells us not today.
Passing stranger is 1.09 to place in the first 2 and 1.23 to win." impossible to oppose" enough to back the win? Or take the insurance of 2 places and back with Randers for a 1.17 bet?
Fredericka are the value in the danish Cup, having scored 3-4-3 recently they face opponents on the back of a 5-1 hiding in their lower leagues.
Faith in Ruby Murray and 3-0 sets today in the 1st round US Open? 1.26 of some appeal and better approached with trading in mind.
Goverla Zakarpatia seem worthy of the 1.13 odds today but I am no Ukrainian 2nd division expert. They should win minimum 1-0 but the previous £13K lay money has disappeared making it an illiquid market.

Analysis of last race " the impression is there is significantly more to come" sides me with Dubawi Dancer here ( Come on Maggie the value here also in good form) in a race where we have 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 14/1

*****ONE A DAY - 400 BATH - DUBAWI DANCER TO PLACE ONLY - again Betfair SP preferable.*****
I hope the curse of the multiple handicap winner does not strike.

Dynamic duo not the 1.4 I envisaged, and Betfair SP of 1.19 did place.

3pm - Goverla Zakarpatia v Enerhetyk Burshtyn - 1.13 home - this is the Ukrainian 2nd division and likely to be illiquid. A whopping £34K at present at 1.13 offers us liquidity as backers in the match odds market. The goals markets are illiquid ( and remember this is sub 1.2 and as Esjberg showed, 4 goals or more could be likely.

06.05.2011	D2	Zakarpattya	1-0	Energetik Burshtin
25.09.2010	D2	Energetik Burshtin	2-1	Zakarpattya
24.05.2009	D2	Zakarpattya	1-0	Energetik Burshtin

Head to heads in stark contrast with what the odds are showing.
Zak are unbeaten in their last 9 league matches DDWWWWWWW and have only lost one of their last 12 matches in all competitions.
4 1-0's again leaves this goals search of ours slightly suspect.
8 of last 9 matches under 2.5 goals.
WWDWWWW at home in last 7 matches but again goal totals of 1-3-2-1-2-1-4 does not signal a huge goal trend today.
Opponents have lost their last 6 league games and now we might see where the goals will come from as they concede regularly.4-2-2-2-3-3- the goals conceded by Burshtin. The only thing Energetik about them is the goalkeeper stooping to pick the ball out of the net. Last 2 3 goal losses have been to nil.
They have failed to score in 5 of last 6 matches.
They have lost their last 3 away from home in the league, but prior to that, form read LWWDLWDLLL
1st v 18th with only 7 matches played. Limited trends with which to work but a hint this is Winners v Losers and a potential for a correct score to nil for the home side, only it is difficult to gauge their maximum goals scored. 1.13 indicates 3/4 or more, as does recent form where 3 is the maximum scored by Zakar. Burshtin have lost their last 2 matches 3-0 which backs this up. Over 2.5 goals then . A lot of 1-0's too makes this less than straightforward.
445pm - Allerod v Naestved - 1.43 away - Division 4 v Division 2 and Naestved have not drawn in their last 11 matches in all competitions.
445pm - Langeskov IF v Randers - 1.08 away - Randers are a Division 2 side who have not scored in their last 2 matches. Previous cup match saw them win 1-8 away. Langeskov I cannot find any info re them in the league. Assumption that this will be a 3/4 or more goal win for away side ( with a strong side out). Slight concern re not scoring in last 2 league matches but lower level opposition today.
445pm - Skovbakken v Fredericia - 1.39 away - D3W v D2 in the Danish Cup. Fred scored 3-4 in their last 2 league matches prior to a 1-1 draw recently so have goals in them if they are motivated for this match. 6-1-4-3-6 the total goals scored in Skov's last 5 matches. They are coming off the back of a 5-1 away league defeat. Potential for goals but you never know with teams with no head to heads history.

5pm - Germany U20 v Poland U20 - 1.36 home

24.03.2011	U20	Germany U20	1-1	Poland U20
10.10.2010	U20	Poland U20	0-1	Germany U20

Don't mention the war! Normally with under 20 football/ under 17/ Womens/ the teams who historically dominate don't tend to . It may be value to take a contrarian view here ( if this was the first team a confident back of Germany would be the call). Under 2.5 goals is the call from head to heads.
Germany's last loss, though , was in October 2009 and since then they have won 7 and drawn 4.
At home, Germany are unbeaten in their last 12. All draws have been score draws ( 4 1-1's and a 2-2)
REcently Germany have scored 3-3-2-1-4-2-3-1 - the last 1 was against Poland. It is hard to know where in the pecking order Poland come as compared to the teams Germany scored 3-4 against.
Poland have won only 2 in their last 10 - 2-3 v Swiss and the Poles were 2-0 down at halftime.
And a 1-0 v Italy.Germany have beaten Italy 5-0 and 4-0 at home -is this a good gauge?
Only 2 relevant recent away performances - 1-0 loss v Italy ( Italy down to 10) and 1-1 draw with Germans ( Germans scored first)
I have a feeling that the first goal should indeed come from the Germans which may be an angle in? If Poland score, we might be on enhanced bet territory as Germans worse case is a score draw ( automatic 1.5 goals angle?)
6pm - Viborg v AaB - 1.54 away - 4 wins, 3 draws for away side in Division 1 playing WDW for Division 2 side so far this season.
7pm - Montpellier v Amiens - 1.47 home - Division 1 v Division 2 sides. Last met 2009 in Division 2 which tells us Montpellier are newcomers to the top flight. French Cup and home advantage, or would Montpellier prefer to prioritise the league?
Mont have scored 3-0-3-4 in their 4 league home matches recently which is solid form.
So far in D2, 1-0 loss and 1-1 draw for Amiens hints at defensive solidity ( down to 10 men in the 1-0 loss). This could be a tight match.
US OPEN
4pm - F Lopez v Ito - 1.11 home - 26th v 127th in the world. 1.11 hints at worse case 3-1 set betting - can we risk 3-0 sets to increase the odds? 2nd/2nd round for Lopez recently all on hard. For ito 2nd/2nd/QF/ 2nd, 1st - last 2 matches in straight sets defeats.
It doesn't scream out total confidence in Lopez. The market accounts though for the rankings.
4pm - K Bondarenko v Zvonareva - 1.14 away - 62nd v 2nd - 1 relevant hard court head to heads 7-5, 6-0 to Zvonareva hints that this might be tradable if Bond can keep it as tight 1st set.
QF and Semi in last 2 tournaments for Zvonareva on hard court as against 2 QF's in warm up hard court tournaments for Bond. I think Zvon could be layable at 1.14 initially if we can hope for a tight first set.
4pm - Soderling v Sorensen - 1.07 Soderling - Quarter Final (QF) for Sorensen in San Jose hard court. Soderling not played on hard court since March where he reached 3rd round in BNP Paribas and Sony Erikkson. - 6th in the world against Sorensen who has not got a ranking on the Betfair Stats site. 3-0 sets open here or is the lack of a pre US Open hard court pipe opener for Soderling a worry?
515pm - Del Potro v Volandri - 1.03 Del - 18th v 85th and a feeling Del should be ranked higher but injury has necessitated a fight up the rankings again.
1.03 signals potential for 3-0 Del set betting - 1.25 is a big price relative to other 1.03 shots .
1st round straight sets defeat for Volandri last hard court tournament recently. Del lost out to Federer in the 2nd round of Hard Court W & S on 17th August.
3 straight sets defeats out of 4 for Volandri in hard court tournaments. 3-0 in Aussie Open too.
6pm - Devvarman v A Murray - 1.02 Murray - recent winner of W & S hard court event - I think Djokovic retired. Murray in good order. 64th v 4th in the world. 1.26 3-0 Murray in sets.

630pm - Mello v Simon - 1.07 away - 113th v 12th - QF of W&S and knocked out by Murray for Simon. Big gulf in class herre -outside the top 100.

00.00am - Roddick v Russell - 1.1 Rodd - 21st v 96th - Semi final of Winston-Salem Open for Roddick recently means he is in good nick.Did not drop a set in 2nd, 3rd and QF.
A big server so should be solid trading material on serve.

400 BATH

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Dubawi Dancer, 4/1 Only You Maggie, 5/1 Oriental Girl, 8/1 History Repeating, 14/1 Galloping Queen, 16/1 Levantera, 16/1 Miss Chicane.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only You Maggie is in good form and Oriental Girl goes well here but it could pay to keep following DUBAWI DANCER (nap) until the handicapper finds the limit of her ability. [Chris Wilson]

7 runners - 3 places - strong market leader and 4 under 16/1 must make Dubawi Dancer a solid place only horse here?

735 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Sharp Relief, 7/2 Royal Bonsai, 11/2 Joe Rocco, 10/1 Mayan Flight, 12/1 Langtoon Lass, 14/1 Rapturous Applause, 16/1 Red Lite, 40/1 Srimenanti.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHARP RELIEF (nap) makes easily the most appeal on recent evidence and has a bit of potential. Royal Bonsai would appear the chief threat, but keep an eye on Joe Rocco who makes a big step up in trip for this handicap debut. Langtoon Lass might also be suited by the longer distance, judged on pedigree at least.[Richard Austen]

8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 14/1 - and Sharp relief should be competitive for the place. But faith in a class 6 0-65 handicap?

320 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Passing Stranger, 5/1 Dualite, 12/1 Enchanted Dream, 16/1 Choose The Moment, 16/1 Shadow Of The Sun, 20/1 Dolly Bay, 33/1 Suffolini.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The odds will be short but it is very hard to see beyond PASSING STRANGER, who in all likelihood will only need to repeat the form of her Windsor debut second in June to win this lesser contest with plenty to spare. Dualite is the tentative choice for second. [Mel Cullinan]

obvious one here .

510 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 The Playful Priest, 5/1 Truckers Benefit, 8/1 Cresswell Comander, 9/1 Dj Milan, 10/1 Ballyturn Boy, 25/1 Smart Agent, 33/1 Ar´r Afon Lewis, 33/1 Mustow Green.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With a good pedigree and a trainer who does fantastically well here, THE PLAYFUL PRIEST looks to have plenty in his favour. He is readily preferred to fellow newcomer Cresswell Comander with Truckers Benefit the pick of those with previous experience.[Stuart Redding]

6 under 33/1 here should make this a 50/50 race for 3 places. The Playful Priest is McCoy/curtis newcomer in this bumper. Market consultation ideal really. truckers has plenty of experience and at 4/1 looks like a perfect each way value alternative to the debutant.

SHORTLIST