back-lay-trade-horses-football: 26/8

*****ONE A DAY - 7pm - Ajax v Vitesse - back Ajax in the match odds at 1.23***** Remember the trading option is available to lock in profit, as yesterday. Over 2.5/3.5 goals a speculative option if Ajax replicate recent goalscoring exploits and vitesse concede 4 or more as they did in 6 of their 10 away matches against top 10 last season. Efistorm is very interesting in a 6 horse race for 3 places too, will those 3 wins on the trot mean he blows out today? Must have a chance of first 3 finish surely?
Lifetime at Hamilton might be a good win only bet for Mark Johnston - a huge price gapper.

An 82nd minute goal scuppered the win. But the match was tradeable. I traded out for instance at 1.11 having backed Roma at 1.31 so profitted on the day ( i entered the match a bit late), despite acknowledging that this was not a trade tip. Frustrating as a bet. And I blame myself for being swayed by the Racing Post's positivity when the better paying Stoke wallopped Thun.

5pm - Gyori v Zalaegerszeg - 1.35 home - likely to be illiquid so not going to spend too much time on this Hungarian league match. 6 wins on the trot for Gyori and 5 losses and a draw for Zala.
1-1, 1-0(zala), 1-1, 1-0 (zala), 1-1 signals that Zala could be a bogey team for Gyori?

530pm - LASK Linz v FC Lustenau - 1.3 home - Austrian 2nd tier perhaps not as reliable , but both teams matches seem to trend towards over 2.5 goals.
6pm - Esbjerg v Hjorring - 1.32 home
HEAD TO HEADS
None apparently which indicates one of these 2 are newcomers.

LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 14th after 2 matches

5-4 home win and 3-2 away loss for Esbjerg
4-0 away loss and 4-1 home loss for Hjorring.
Goals anyone despite the fact we only have 2 matches to work on?

6pm - Willem II v Maastricht - 1.61 home -WILLEM II a relgegated side from last year and could be dominant or at least competitive at home this season in a lesser league.
1-3 away win, 1-1 home draw and 3-2 away loss so far for Willem II
3-2 home win, 2-0 away loss, 2-1 home win for Maastricht.
Again not much to go on, and Willem II of last year will not tell us much as they were out of their depth in the top flight.

7pm - Ajax v Vitesse - 1.23 home - 2nd v 4th in the top flight. Both 2 wins and a draw.
1-4 away win, 5-1 home win, 2-2 away draw ( when Ajax were 2-2 down) - plenty of goals post Suarez.

12.12.2010	D1	Vitesse Arnhem	0-1	AFC Ajax
14.08.2010	D1	AFC Ajax	4-2	Vitesse Arnhem
21.02.2010	D1	AFC Ajax	4-0	Vitesse Arnhem
29.11.2009	D1	Vitesse Arnhem	1-5	AFC Ajax
08.02.2009	D1	Vitesse Arnhem	4-1	AFC Ajax

All bar the last match goal laden. What happened to suddenly stop the avalanche of goals ? was this just anomolous? At home, Ajax have scored 4 in both recent encounters.
0-0 away draw, 4-0 home win, 2-1 home win for Vitesse. Again more goal laden matches than not.
1st v 15th from last season so the inference is that Vitesse will become less consistent over the season.
Vitesse lost to all of the top 10 away last season , 6 of those matches saw them concede 4 or more!
Ajax lost only 2 at home last season.
Possibility of another 4 goal haul for Ajax at home. Unconvincing in 2-2 draw last time, despite coming back from 2-0 down when similarly priced. What of the 0-1 ( yes it was away) last time? Anomolous?

745pm - Barcelona v Porto - 1.38 home - the domination of Europe apparent with a 1.38 quote against a Porto side who won all bar 3 league matches last season. Super Cup and this could be an exciting match. 2 sides with a winning mentality and loads of attacking quality. Barca likely to have the lion's share of possession and eventually make it count. Worth watching with a reactive trader's mindset - if Porto score first, then get stuck in. Goals looks an obvious call but then I recall the match against Shaktar ( I think) which was a 1-0.

2pm - FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Miss Rosie, 5/2 Molly Jones, 9/2 Redair, 5/1 Imelda Mayhem, 10/1 Thirsty Bear, 14/1 Princess Banu.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It can pay to concentrate on the progressive pair at the foot of the handicap. Molly Jones will appreciate the return to 6f but may have to give best to MISS ROSIE (nap) who is officially 2lb well in. [Frank Carter]

2 under 7/1 and a Mark Johnston market leader in Miss Rosie. 2 places and 2 year old handicap, but Mark Johnston market leaders are generally reliable.

600 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Lifetime, 10/1 Jack Bell, 10/1 Takhreej, 14/1 Sky High Diver, 14/1 Vinniespride, 16/1 Riczar, 20/1 Carnelian, 25/1 Miss Pronounce, 25/1 Ultimate Best.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Whether LIFETIME deserves a mark of 79 is highly debatable but he's nonetheless the one to beat having chased home horses from strong Newmarket yards the last twice and the stable had six to choose from at the five-day stage.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Johnston market leader again and a big price gapper, a maiden favourite with a strong of good form, 5-3-2

430 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Outback, 11/4 Fort Sam Houston, 5/1 Wimpole Street, 6/1 Dazzling Pearl, 8/1 Hurricane Ridge, 20/1 The Tally Ho Kid, 33/1 Mad For Road, 50/1 Rule By Decree.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OUTBACK sets a solid standard and should prove difficult to peg back from the front. Market support for either of the well-connected newcomers would be very interesting. [Kevin Blake]

5 under 33/1 - Wachman/Lordan have been extremely consistent when on fancied horses - Outback is the fav here in this 8 runner - 3 place race. 2 debutants from big stables at to the spice.

605 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Galileo´s Choice, 11/2 Blossom Gate, 6/1 Luska Lad, 8/1 The Last Don, 16/1 Merveilles, 100/1 Destined For Fame, 100/1 Ms Whatshername.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GALILEO'S CHOICE makes most appeal to follow up his odds-on Galway hurdling success last month.
Dermot Weld's challenger chased home the useful Pittoni over 3f shorter in his penultimate start at Tipperary and he has most to fear from dual bumper winner Blossom Gate and Luska Lad. [Brian Fleming]

3 under 12/1 and the Weld horse galileo's choice is of interest here, back on the flat.

625 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Hunter Forward, 7/2 Sennockian Storm, 11/2 Lucky Windmill, 13/2 Advisor, 12/1 Amazing Blue Sky, 12/1 Red Fama, 12/1 Thin Red Line, 14/1 Rubi Dia, 16/1 Spirit Of A Nation, 20/1 Best Prospect, 25/1 Magic Echo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sennockian Storm should be suited by the return to 1m4f and remains ahead of the handicapper but HUNTER FORWARD has the most appealing profile in the field and she looks one to follow. Unbeaten in two starts since joining Luca Cumani's stable, there should be more progress in her and she'll stay 1m4f if taking after her sire.[Steve Boow]

Hunter Forward did the job under Fallon last time out and as a multiple handicap winner, he will eventually lose. But today?

210 THIRSK

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Stevie Gee, 5/2 Efistorm, 4/1 Tabaret, 8/1 Go Go Green, 10/1 Grandmas Dream, 14/1 Ishetoo, 14/1 Olynard.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Stevie Gee and Tabaret are both capable of winning a lowly event like this, but EFISTORM's will to win could prove a key factor and he can continue his recent hot streak despite these terms.[Paul Smith]

6 horses remain and 3 places makes this a 50/50 race.

Efistorm of obvious interest with Stevie Gee a non runner.

SHORTLIST

7pm - Ajax v Vitesse - 1.23 home - remembering there were only 2 points in 1st and 2nd last year, every match is important, the home matches more so, and I expect Ajax to beat a team who lost away to all of the top 10 last season. Possibility for 4 goals from Ajax if they click.