Tuesday 23 August 2011

23/8

*****ONE A DAY - 745pm - Aston Villa v Hereford - back Villa in the match odds at 1.19***** - McLeish knows how to win the Carling Cup and I hope will continue with a strong team selection at home.
Villareal are next best in a must win after a shock 1-0 loss to Ob Odense in the first leg.
Eshoog has a great chance of placing today in the early evening maiden and Stunning View is one to watch at Killarney for Weld/Smullen


Good research, bad choice. Although Sundsvall scored first and did score a 3rd by all accounts, it was not allowed. Another draw!

745pm - Aston Villa v Hereford - 1.19 home - Carling Cup and any sign of that impressive 3 pronged attack from the weekend should see a comfortable home win. Hereford have conceded 3 and 4 at home to Macclesfield and Morecambe so this will be a tough ask. Likely to see some personnel changes for Villa. That would be the only niggle.
745pm -
Burnley v Barnet - 1.49 home - 3 draws in last 4 matches for Burnley and last 2 matches for League 2 Barnet both draws. Lay the Draw?
745pm -
FC Zurich v B Munich - 1.53 away - Should be job done with Bayern not conceding an away goal in the first leg. They only really need 1 away goal to leave Zurich needing to win 4-1 to go through - it isn't going to happen. Slight concern that Bayern need simply a 0-0 or a 1-0 loss to still go through. Teams that don't need to win rarely do.
745pm -
Hibernian v Berwick - 1.24 home - 3-0 away win for Hibs in a friendly as recently as July 2011 augurs well for this Scottish League Cup match. Hibs desparately need a confidence boosting win after 2 defeats in the SPL shipping 4 and 2 goals.
745pm -
Millwall v Morecambe - 1.49 home - Willwall have scored 2 in each of their 2 league matches at home, and fans expect similar this evening against League 2 outfit Morecambe, who have started the season confidently, scoring 3-2-2 in 3 wins in the lesser league. This might be tougher than Millwall or the 1.49 suggests?
745pm -
Northampton v Wolves - 1.78 away - Runaway Premier League leaders (ish). Mick McCarthy will rest some of the heroic stars who have quite literally lit up the Premiership in recent weeks with their sparkling Barcelona'esque football. Wolves have won their last 5 matches on the trot, including 2 in the Premiership and any semblance of a first team should have a chance at a reasonable 1.78 against a Northampton side who have lost their last 2 League 2 matches.
745pm -
Villarreal v OB - 1.24 home - 84th minute winner for OB Odense in their home leg and they have something to fight for. They need an away goal to get Villareal rattled. The Spanish League has not started yet but Villareal have 3 friendlies under their belt for August and should be fully attuned and match fit ( as the Spanish league was supposed to start this weekend gone).
This really is a must win for Villareal and a must score first as well . They dare not leave the Champions League at the qualifying stages!
OB have only lost 2 matches in their last 12 in all competitions against the same side AAB AALBORG and have I suppose the competitive edge at present albeit in a Danish league which is only 6 matches old.

610 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Money Spider, 7/2 Secretary Of State, 5/1 Orchestra Leader, 6/1 Crimson Sunrise, 7/1 Vegas Rocks, 8/1 Danequest, 12/1 Southfork, 25/1 Jjs Pride.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MONEY SPIDER (nap) shaped really nicely at Gowran Park last time and she is the one to beat in this. Secretary Of State looks to be the pick of the remainder. [Kevin Blake]

If I was still in IReland I would be at Killarney this evening. A most beautiful course. 8 runners this race, and 3 places. The betting forecast signals it's quite tight with only one real recognised outsider in Jj's Pride.

Money spider is currently 7/4 with Secretary of state interestint at 3/1. This is a nursery which is a 2 year old handicap.

640 KILLARNEY


BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Stunning View, 4/1 Wild Wind, 6/1 Banna Boirche, 7/1 Barack, 8/1 Marvada, 10/1 Sapphire Pendant, 12/1 Bay Knight, 16/1 Royal Blue Star, 20/1 Gossamer Seed, 25/1 Duchess Of Foxland, 25/1 Lightening Stricks.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: STUNNING VIEW looked like a Group horse in a handicap when winning the Topaz Mile last time and he can register a first success at stakes level in this. Marvada may be the one to give him the most to think about. [Kevin Blake]

Weld/Smullen on a solid enough favourite - yes please.

5/2 in the early market and it signals slight negatives in Listed company. Could be value or could be a sign.

215 SEDGEFIELD


BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Bhaltair, 6/4 Tower, 10/1 Pompan, 14/1 Port View.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BHALTAIR boasts the best recent credentials but this might not be a straightforward exercise, with Tower a real threat if his latest flop is forgiven.[Jonathan Neesom]

Bhaltair is the McCain/Maguire horse here and deserves respect in a possible 2 horse dominated hurdles race.

530 WARWICK


BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Noverre To Go, 5/1 Could It Be Magic, 5/1 Silver Wind, 6/1 Dark Lane, 8/1 Our Piccadilly, 16/1 Eternal Youth, 16/1 Memphis Man, 33/1 Indian Dumaani, 33/1 Little Perisher, 33/1 Trade Centre.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This represents a huge drop in grade for NOVERRE TO GO and he should prove too good for the likes of Silver Wind and Dark Lane, especially in receipt of weight. [Mark Brown]

6/5 - - - 11/2 for Noverre to Go but this is a poor race.

600 WARWICK

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Emkanaat, 4/1 Eshoog, 7/1 Darsan, 8/1 Amazing Win, 8/1 Hollie, 10/1 Howyadoingnotsobad, 12/1 Adaeze, 14/1 The Flying Cholita, 16/1 Decimate, 20/1 My Piccadill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Eshoog looks the pick of those with experience, but it will be disappointing if EMKANAAT, from a leading yard, can't run to a level on his debut that's good enough to win this weak maiden. Fellow newcomer Darsan is also of interest. [Mark Brown]

2 under 14/1 here and I would always go with experience and Eshoog over debutants ( Emkanaat)


SHORTLIST

745pm - Aston Villa v Hereford - 1.19 home - the manager won the Carling Cup, the forward line is superb and Villa at home would want to keep the high spirits of the weekend 3-1 win.

745pm - FC Zurich v B Munich - 1.53 away - obviously the better side by some distance - only concern is they do not need to win, rather avoid defeat 2-0 , 3-0.

745pm - Hibernian v Berwick - 1.24 home - 3-0 away win for Hibs in a recent July friendly should signal a win this evening in the League Cup. Hibs have lost their last 2 SPL matches and need a confidence boosting win.

745pm - Millwall v Morecambe - 1.49 home -goals this evening? 1.26 over 1.5 goals has a reasonable chance surely if recent goalscoring exploits are anything to go by.

745pm - Villarreal v OB - 1.24 home - a must win for the Yellow submarines who should be fully wound up as the weekend should have seen the start of La Liga.

610 KILLARNEY - Money Spider should have a great place only chance if improving. A 2 year old handicap , 8 runners and 3 places.

640 KILLARNEY - Stunning view should have a competitive chance of placing, albeit up in class to listed class and an unfavourable draw. But Smullen onboard.

600 WARWICK - Eshoog would be my choice here from the front 2 in the market. The market leader is an expensive debutant and of course should be anything, but 2 2nd places out of 2 is a sign that Eshoog is doing well. Concern that the horse has all sorts of headgear on, hinting that the horse is not that straightforward.





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