I am going back to Scotland. I know that Celtic let me down last week , and that was largely due to a missed 3 minute pen which could have changed the dynamic of the match. Rangers have kept 3 away clean sheets and are playing a team who have not scored in 4. 0-0 is the killer and risk could be reduced with a 0-0 insurance bet, but 1.29 appeals today and the hope Rangers can keep that 1 point lead over Celtic.
*****ONE A DAY - 3pm - Rangers v Aberdeen - back Rangers in the match odds at 1.29*****
No 1-1 draw to scupper a horse racing bet! 1.19 Betfair SP for Elusive Pimpernel to place in a 6 horse race for 3 places.
1230pm - Eintracht Frankfurt v Paderborn - 1.43 home - German 2nd tier. 1-1 back in 2008 so one of these is a newcomer to this league. 2 1-1 home draws for Frankfurt so far and the probability of a 3rd 1-1 must be small surely. They are great away scoring 3-3-4 in 3 away matches and 2 clean sheets.
Paderborn away lost 3-0 and won 2 matches 2-1 so are in reasonable form.Those 2 wins the only ones this season.
I would oppose 1-1 here ( but odds of 11 are a bit high for the layer) - alternately back Frankfurt with a 1-1 insurance cover? You will get some movement in the odds if either team scored ( particularly Paderborn first)
Again not much info to work on this early in the season.
1245pm - Bronshoj v Randers - 1.58 away - Danish 2nd tier and not a prioritised match.
1245pm - St Mirren v Celtic - 1.42 away - yet another must win as they cocked it up at home last time as Rangers were away and Celtic had what looked like an easy match ( missed 3 minute penalty did not help) - only one of the last 22 meetings between these 2 has ended in a draw - quite a stat from Racing Post.
2 1-0's at home for St Mirren ( win and loss) and a 1-0 and 2-0 away win so far for Celtic.
For me, that 1.42 is layable, but I was watching the Rangers price last week and it did not move much after 20 minutes. To see a tradable price move having laid at 1.42 we may need to wait a while. Will Celtic lose 2 on the trot? Surely it cannot be tolerated?
1pm - Newcastle v Fulham - 2.32 home - another example of transfer market changes which might affect the dynamic of the Geordies. The t#at that is Joey Barton is no longer at the side. I found yesterday tough to get angles into because teams like Liverpool had so many changes ( which turned out positive!) The odds suggest a tight affair again.
From www.premierleague.com
"
After a midweek trip to Ukraine to play Dnipro, Fulham arrive at St James' Park in search of their first Barclays Premier League win of the season.
Manager Martin Jol will be looking for a significant improvement after the disappointment of last week's away defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers, while Alan Pardew will be hoping Newcastle can build on last week's 0-1 victory at rivals Sunderland.
When these teams met on Tyneside last season, they played out a 0-0 draw."
0-0 draw last season - now why does that not surprise me.
Joey Barton is unlikely to be included in the Newcastle squad for Sunday's Barclays Premier League match with Fulham as he considers his future.
The 28-year-old has this week undergone a medical at QPR, but is yet to agree to join the promoted club, and manager Alan Pardew does not believe he would be in the right frame of mind to play.
Central defender Mike Williamson is facing up to six weeks on the sidelines after suffering an ankle injury in last night's 2-1 Carling Cup victory at Scunthorpe, while keeper Steve Harper will miss out with a knee problem and striker Shola Ameobi could be limited by a hip injury.
Fulham pair Bobby Zamora and John Arne Riise are doubts for the match.
The England international striker missed Thursday's Europa League play-off against Dnipro with an ankle injury and is rated 50-50 for the match at St James' Park.
Riise was forced off with a groin problem yesterday and has had a scan, while Simon Davies could face a further five months out with a knee injury.
Newcastle: Krul, Sodeberg, Simpson, R. Taylor, Ferguson, Coloccini, S. Taylor, Tiote, Cabaye, Gutierrez, Marveaux, Obertan, Gosling, Smith, Abeid, Ba, Shola Ameobi, Lovenkrands, Best, Vuckic, Sammy Ameobi.
Fulham: Schwarzer, Etheridge, Kelly, JA Riise, Hangeland, Baird, Senderos, Hughes, Halliche, Sidwell, Kasami, Murphy, Gecov, Duff, Etuhu, Dempsey, Johnson, Dembele, Zamora.
Zamora a significant miss I would suggest ( for me goalkeepers and forwards missing is key). And with Fulham failing to score in 4 of their last 5 away, this could be key. A hint that the early Europa League obligations are getting in the way?
1pm - OB v SonderjyskE- 1.5 home
HEAD TO HEADS| 25.04.2011 | D1 | SønderjyskE | 0-2 | Odense BK | |
| 25.10.2010 | D1 | Odense BK | 1-2 | SønderjyskE | |
| 14.08.2010 | D1 | SønderjyskE | 1-3 | Odense BK | |
| 03.05.2010 | D1 | SønderjyskE | 2-0 | Odense BK | |
| 13.03.2010 | D1 | Odense BK | 1-1 | SønderjyskE | |
| 25.07.2009 | D1 | Odense BK | 3-1 | SønderjyskE |
115pm - Nottm Forest v West Ham - 2.8 for Forest and 2.78 for West Ham signal what the bookies expect here - tighter than my brother when it's his round. Hammers win 2 on the road and should have beaten Leeds at home ( traders note they scored first and led 1-0 and 2-1 ) 2 draws for Forest at home so far, the key one a 2-2 v Leicester - v lucky as they were 0-2 down and a penalty and 90th minute goal got the point.
West Ham might look value today for the backer at 2.78 to trade off if they score first.
130pm - Dinamo Moscow v Spartak Nalchik - 1.28 home
130pm - Feyenoord v Heerenveen - 1.6 home - Heerenveen have conceded 2, 5 and 5 this season ( Ajax and Twente and Feyenoord are not quite up to their level yet)
One home match for Feyenoord was a 3-0 home win v Roda.
| 06.03.2011 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 0-1 | Feyenoord | |
| 14.11.2010 | D1 | Feyenoord | 2-2 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 02.05.2010 | D1 | Feyenoord | 6-2 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 12.12.2009 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 0-2 | Feyenoord | |
| 20.01.2009 | Cup | Feyenoord | 0-3 | SC Heerenveen | |
| 16.01.2009 | D1 | SC Heerenveen | 3-1 | Feyenoord |
130pm - Tottenham v Man City - 2.46 away - City have impressed as has Aguero who should have scored 2 minimum in his last match.
Over the last two seasons, meetings between these sides have proved decisive in realising the clubs' respective Champions League ambitions.
Spurs find themselves in the Europa League this term and faced Hearts in midweek. Manager Harry Redknapp rested many of his first-team regulars with much of the work done in last week's 5-0 first-leg win.
This fixture sees the sides at the top and bottom of the Barclays Premier League going head-to-head. City have taken maximum points from their first two matches but bottom club Spurs have won 11 of the last 14 top-flight encounters against the Citizens.
Two ambitious sides, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City, meet in the first Barclays Premier League match of the season to take place at White Hart Lane.
Luka Modric looks set to make his first Tottenham appearance of the season after taking part in full training on Friday.
The Croatian has been carrying what has been diagnosed as a minor hamstring complaint but should be fit, along with Jermaine Jenas and Alan Hutton, who have recovered from recent Achilles and knee injuries respectively
William Gallas (calf), Steven Pienaar (groin), Ledley King, Wilson Palacios and Sandro (all knee) miss out while loan signing Emmanuel Adebayor is unavailable to play against his parent club.
New signing Samir Nasri could make his Manchester City debut in Sunday's Barclays Premier League match at Tottenham.
Midfielder Nigel de Jong is out with a foot problem but manager Roberto Mancini has no other injury concerns.
Carlos Tevez could also feature but is again likely to be on the bench due to a lack of match sharpness.
Tottenham: Gomes, Friedel, Cudicini, Bale, Kaboul, Bassong, Dawson, Corluka, Walker, Hutton, Assou-Ekotto, Huddlestone, Lennon, Van der Vaart, Modric, Jenas, Kranjcar, Livermore, Townsend, Bentley, Pavlyuchenko, Crouch, Defoe, Dos Santos.
Manchester City: Hart, Richards, Zabaleta, Savic, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Kolarov, Boyata, Johnson, Barry, Milner, Silva, Y Toure, Wright-Phillips, Balotelli, Dzeko, Aguero, Tevez, Pantilimon, Taylor.
| 10.05.2011 | PR | Manchester City | 1-0 | Tottenham | |
| 14.08.2010 | PR | Tottenham | 0-0 | Manchester City | |
| 05.05.2010 | PR | Manchester City | 0-1 | Tottenham | |
| 16.12.2009 | PR | Tottenham | 3-0 | Manchester City | |
| 16.05.2009 | PR | Tottenham | 2-1 | Manchester City |
145pm - Zenit St Petersburg v FK Krasnodar - 1.22 home - not on soccerstats.com and time limits mean I only want to focus on soccerstats sides.
3pm - Debrecen v Ujpest - 1.42 home - as above
3pm - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg - 1.38 home - showing the consistency that traders want to see, Copenhagen return home.
HEAD TO HEADS| 25.04.2011 | D1 | FC København | 2-0 | Silkeborg IF | |
| 24.10.2010 | D1 | Silkeborg IF | 0-3 | FC København | |
| 11.09.2010 | D1 | FC København | 2-2 | Silkeborg IF | |
| 09.05.2010 | D1 | Silkeborg IF | 2-0 | FC København | |
| 25.10.2009 | D1 | FC København | 1-0 | Silkeborg IF | |
| 01.08.2009 | D1 | FC København | 1-1 | Silkeborg IF |
Silkeborg unable to score in last 2 meetings, but were thorns in the side in previous encounters.
3pm - Rangers v Aberdeen - 1.29 home
| 13.04.2011 | PR | Aberdeen FC | 0-1 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 13.11.2010 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 2-0 | Aberdeen FC | |
| 26.09.2010 | PR | Aberdeen FC | 2-3 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 07.04.2010 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 3-1 | Aberdeen FC | |
| 28.11.2009 | PR | Aberdeen FC | 1-0 | Glasgow Rangers | |
| 26.09.2009 | PR | Glasgow Rangers | 0-0 | Aberdeen FC |
4 wins on the trot in head to heads. Last 2 home matches wins.
Naismith and Jelavic look key players for Rangers.
3pm - West Brom v Stoke - 2.38 home
After their midweek Europa League exploits against FC Thun, Stoke face West Brom with both teams looking for their first Barclays Premier League victory of the season.
While the Baggies are yet to pick up a point following defeats to Manchester United and Chelsea, Stoke are undefeated after drawing with Andre Villas-Boas' side and new boys Norwich City.
In the same fixture last season, Stoke romped to a 3-0 victory at The Hawthorns thanks to a Matthew Etherington strike and a brace from Jon Walters.
West Brom coach Roy Hodgson is considering whether to give a first start of the season to striker Peter Odemwingie in Sunday's home Barclays Premier League matchh with Stoke.
The Nigeria international, Albion's top scorer with 15 goals last term, has recovered from an ankle injury suffered in pre-season and came on as a substitute during last weekend's 2-1 defeat at Chelsea.
Midfielder Zoltan Gera is the only player currently sidelined as he builds up his fitness after ankle surgery.
Stoke have influential duo Robert Huth and Matthew Etherington back for the encounter.
The pair return to the Potters squad having both been suspended for last night's Europa League play-off victory over FC Thun.
Manager Tony Pulis withdrew Jermaine Pennant in the second half of that match as a precaution and hopes the winger will be fit to face the Baggies, while Rory Delap will also be assessed for a hamstring problem.
West Brom: Foster, Reid, Tamas, Dawson, Olsson, Shorey, Brunt, Scharner, Mulumbu, Morrison, Long, Tchoyi, Odemwingie, Dorrans, Fulop, Cox, Jara, McAuley, Cech, Thomas.
Stoke: Begovic, Wilson, Huth, Shawcross, Upson, Collins, Pugh, Wilkinson, Whelan, Whitehead, Diao, Etherington, Walters, Jones, Sorensen, Shotton, Tonge, Arismendi, Woodgate, Pennant, Delap, Soares.
Some signifcant returnees for both sides.
| 28.02.2011 | PR | Stoke City | 1-1 | West Bromwich | |
| 20.11.2010 | PR | West Bromwich | 0-3 | Stoke City | |
| 04.04.2009 | PR | West Bromwich | 0-2 | Stoke City |
Stoke only won 3 away last season ( and yes 1 was against WBA)
A management change for WBA a key addition. 0-0 and 1-1 for Stoke this season - tough to beat.
330pm - PSV v Excelsior - 1.14 home - Twente did the job at 1.17 yesterday scoring 4 ( as you would expect with sub 1.2 odds) - it's PSV, another of the Triumvirate, today sub 1.15 and expectation is for an easy 3/4 goal win.
| 05.03.2011 | D1 | SBV Excelsior | 2-3 | PSV Eindhoven | |
| 13.11.2010 | D1 | PSV Eindhoven | 4-2 | SBV Excelsior | |
| 26.01.2008 | D1 | PSV Eindhoven | 2-1 | SBV Excelsior |
345pm - Rubin Kazan v Kryliya Sovetov - 1.29 home - Russian top flight not on soccerstats -research available at www.soccerway.com and www.futbol24.com
4pm - Man Utd v Arsenal - 1.51 home - The Arse are all but written off, but as long as they have van Persie in the side, I feel they have some attacking potential. Silly Hair cut Gervinho could also click soon. From www.premierleague.com
After a difficult start to the season, Arsenal arrive at Old Trafford hoping to build on their victorious performance against Champions League opposition Udinese.
Wednesday's 2-1 away win ensured the Gunners' safe passage to the competition's group stage, and Arsene Wenger will be hoping the impressive second-half display will instil some confidence back in to the side who have lost star duo Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri and dropped five points already this season.
In a test of United's status as Barclays Premier League champions, Sir Alex Ferguson will doubtless be asking for more of the same after the 3-0 demolition of Spurs on Monday night.
Arsenal have not enjoyed a victory at Old Trafford since September 2006 and United have won 21 of their last 22 Barclays Premier League matches at home."
Darren Fletcher will return to Manchester United's squad for Sunday's Barclays Premier League showdown with Arsenal.
The Scotland skipper has struggled to shake off the effects of a virus he was struck down by in March but, after coming through his second 90-minute reserve-team outing last night against Swansea, has been drafted into manager Sir Alex Ferguson's plans.
Rio Ferdinand (hamstring) and Antonio Valencia (ankle) have been training, but Nemanja Vidic (calf) and Rafael (shoulder) are definitely out.
Arsenal trio Alex Song, Gervinho and Emmanuel Frimpong are suspended for the match.
Jack Wilshere saw a specialist but the club are still waiting for an update on his ankle injury which is expected to keep him out for three more weeks.
Nicklas Bendtner is sidelined with an ankle problem and Sebastien Squillaci is also out, along with Kieran Gibbs (hamstring) and Abou Diaby (ankle).
Defender Thomas Vermaelen will have a fitness test but is expected to be fit and Laurent Koscielny came through a similar check on his back problem on Friday morning.
Manchester United: De Gea, Lindegaard, Smalling, Ferdinand, Jones, Evra, Evans, Fabio, Nani, Park, Cleverley, Anderson, Carrick, Fletcher, Giggs, Young, Rooney, Berbatov, Welbeck, Diouf, Owen, Macheda.
Arsenal: Szczesny, Jenkinson, Djourou, Koscielny, Vermaelen, Sagna, Walcott, Arshavin, Rosicky, Ramsey, Traore, Van Persie, Lansbury, Fabianski, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Chamakh, Miquel, Miyaichi.
Gervinho missing today -a key position too. big miss for United in defense might be a way in for Walcott and Van Parsnips.
| 01.05.2011 | PR | Arsenal FC | 1-0 | Manchester United | |
| 12.03.2011 | Cup | Manchester United | 2-0 | Arsenal FC | |
| 13.12.2010 | PR | Manchester United | 1-0 | Arsenal FC | |
| 31.01.2010 | PR | Arsenal FC | 1-3 | Manchester United | |
| 29.08.2009 | PR | Manchester United | 2-1 | Arsenal FC | |
| 16.05.2009 | PR | Manchester United | 0-0 | Arsenal FC |
United have won 2 this season, scoring 5 and rooney has scored in both matches.
4pm - Odesa v Shakhtar - 1.21 away - Ukrainian top flight -research available at www.soccerway.com and www.futbol24.com - have a look 30 mins before the game if you want to get an angle in.
7pm - Zaragoza v Real Madrid - 1.3 away - I suspect Barca are not going to lose this season so this mirrors the SPL with both the big boys having MUST WINS in every single match. 4 points the difference between Barca and Real last season. Only 2 losses away last season against Barca and 9th , 3 0-0's and 13 wins away.
| 30.04.2011 | D1 | Real Madrid | 2-3 | Real Zaragoza | |
| 12.12.2010 | D1 | Real Zaragoza | 1-3 | Real Madrid | |
| 24.04.2010 | D1 | Real Zaragoza | 1-2 | Real Madrid | |
| 19.12.2009 | D1 | Real Madrid | 6-0 | Real Zaragoza |
830pm - Sp Lisbon v Maritimo - 1.51 home
| 24.01.2011 | D1 | CS Marítimo | 0-3 | Sporting Lisboa | |
| 22.08.2010 | D1 | Sporting Lisboa | 1-0 | CS Marítimo | |
| 26.03.2010 | D1 | CS Marítimo | 3-2 | Sporting Lisboa | |
| 01.11.2009 | D1 | Sporting Lisboa | 1-1 | CS Marítimo | |
| 16.05.2009 | D1 | CS Marítimo | 1-2 | Sporting Lisboa | |
| 10.01.2009 | D1 | Sporting Lisboa | 2-0 | CS Marítimo |
last 2 home head to heads have been tight. 2 draws so far for Sporting must end if they hope to be competitive.0-0 and 2-0 away loss for Maritimo.
Only 2 matches in and logic tells us it is not enough to make a concrete decision. From what we have, a tight match looks the call. Perhaps lay the draw if you think that Sporting MUST end that draw sequence which is leaking points.
33% over 2.5 goals at home for Sporting last season and 40% overs away last seasonfor Maritimo backs up this tightness.
220 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Double Cee, 3/1 Maastricht, 7/2 Naseem Alyasmeen, 7/1 Bapak Pintar, 14/1 Curtain Patch, 20/1 Dr Irv, 20/1 Last Zak.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This test is likely to suit MAASTRICHT better than those he faced at Musselburgh and Epsom last twice and he is preferred to Double Cee who made an encouraging debut at Haydock last month.[Adrian Cook]
Maastricht for Johnston has a good probability chance of placing.
255 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 100/30 Jeu De Vivre, 7/1 Fossgate, 7/1 Gems, 7/1 Grey Command, 8/1 Bradbury, 12/1 Maybeme, 12/1 Motafarred, 14/1 Golden Future, 14/1 Green Lightning, 14/1 Saint Thomas, 14/1 Singzak, 20/1 Kames Park.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Bradbury and Grey Command are much better than they showed last time while the return to 1m4f will suit the rejuvenated Fossgate but preference is for the well-bred 3yo JEU DE VIVRE, who has been progressing steadily in middle-distance handicaps and likely still has more to offer.[Adrian Cook]
2/1 - - - -6/1 and another Johnston market leader.
245 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lightening Pearl, 7/2 An Ghalanta, 4/1 Boris Grigoriev, 6/1 Experience, 7/1 Captain Obvious, 8/1 Aaraas, 33/1 Lady Pastrana.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LIGHTENING PEARL brings much the best form into the race and is selected in the hope that she can produce it over this shorter trip. Aaraas shouldn't be underestimated on her return from a short break. [Kevin Blake]
An Ghalanta could be the value here , albeit only 2 places.
425 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Maybe, 3/1 La Collina, 8/1 Fire Lily, 10/1 Princess Sinead, 12/1 Rubina, 16/1 Teolane, 33/1 Coral Wave, 33/1 Soon, 100/1 Chieftess, 100/1 Criostal, 100/1 Miss Ellany.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAYBE has all the makings of an exceptional filly and while La Collina is a more than worthy adversary for her, the daughter of Galileo is selected to maintain her unbeaten record. [Kevin Blake]
2 under 10/1 here and Maybe should place for Ballydoyle. Will these 2 dominate? If so you get a better price about la Collina.
SHORTLIST
1245pm - St Mirren v Celtic - 1.42 away - only based on the must win factor. Like last year, it's Russian Roulette with Celtic. One result will get you , as happened at home last weekend. They cannot afford to lose 2 on the trot with Rangers at home today .1pm - OB v SonderjyskE- 1.5 home - somewhat put off by the drift. As I have written this blog, OB now 1.58. Injury news? I don't know. I would plump for a goals trade here if they can continue to score 2 goals .
1.25 over 1.5 goals.
115pm - Nottm Forest v West Ham - 2.8 for Forest and 2.78 for West Ham - they cannot be split in the match odds but I would back West Ham to score first and trade out. They have won 2 so far away from home.
3pm - FC Copenhagen v Silkeborg - 1.38 home - a chance for a win to nil for Copenhagen today as they continue their consistent goal scoring.
3pm - Rangers v Aberdeen - 1.29 home - McCoist emphasis on defence so far has seen 3 consecutive away clean sheets and all wins. This could continue at home against an Aberdeen side who have failed to score in 4 of 5 matches this season.
330pm - PSV v Excelsior - 1.14 home - 1.31 over 2.5 goals involves both sides. This should be a comfortable home win by 4 ( speculative) -excelsior cannot win against top sides if last year is anything to go by.7pm - Zaragoza v Real Madrid - 1.3 away -all matches must wins for Real Madrid. Could be a sticky opener but with Benzema a far better player now than last year, the goal threat has increased for Madrid.
220 BEVERLEY - 1.47 for Maastricht tells us this is a tight handicap but is he worth a chance as this is a 6 horse race for 3 places. 4 under 10/1
425 CURRAGH - surely Maybe will continue an exceptional run. She is some filly! 1.1 to place and 1.42 to place for La Collina ( the value alternative)
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