The 305 York looks a great race to shortlist. Seville the obvious one a day, but Namibian a speculative punt.
*****305 YORK - SEVILLE TO PLACE ONLY***** - I hope the ground does not become softer. Betting indicates this race should be dominated by 3 - it is an 8 runner race for 3 places so ideal place only material. AS I say above, speculators look no further than Namibian.
1.19 Betfair SP for First Fast Now and, despite the price, I would take those bets all day. 5 times 2nd placed, in a 7 runner race for 3 places! Yes please.
Champions League football was difficult. Copenhagen beaten comprehensively away and all but out unless they score 3 in Plzen to no reply.
3pm - UkrAhroKom Holovkivka v Metalurg Zaporizhya - 1.37 away. Home supporters must be sick of singing " there's only one UkrAhroKom Holovkivka" - Ukraine Cup and away side have won their last 7 matches ( now they are in Division 2) so have the winning thread. Home side are a D3A side ( division 3?)
4pm - Partizan Minsk II v FC Minsk - 1.08 away - sub 1.15 should equal goals and an automatic look at over 3.5/4.5 goals markets . Enhance the bet too with a HalfTime/FullTime bet. Belarussian Cup match - Minsk are top flight and I can get no details on home side which might signal that they are non league? Very little money in the markets alas on Betfair.
745pm - B Munich v FC Zurich - 1.21 home - 2 home losses on the trot at the start of a new season is unthinkable. Bayern got an important 0-1 away win in the league last time and must progress in the Champions League. You know the drill. A win to nil is ideal ( 0-0 is tolerable as they will only have to score away to go through). Zurich drew 1-1 away and won 1-0 at home against Standard Liege. The goal away came in the 79th minute. If it takes nearly 80 minutes to break down Liege, what chance do they have against Bayern?
Robben might be out for Bayern which is a huge blow as he is such an attacking force.
I return to the fact that 2 losses on the trot at home will not be tolerated which makes this a must win. New manager has brought about 2 1-0 scorelines so far. I hope for better this evening.
745pm - Leicester v Bristol City - 1.55 home - 10th v 15th from last year. Not much to go on this early in the season apart from last year's performances.
| 18.02.2011 | LCh | Leicester City | 2-1 | Bristol City | |
| 20.11.2010 | LCh | Bristol City | 2-0 | Leicester City | |
| 16.02.2010 | LCh | Bristol City | 1-1 | Leicester City | |
| 08.12.2009 | LCh | Leicester City | 1-3 | Bristol City |
leicester only lost 4 matches at home, 2 of those against eventual 1st and 2nd. Solidity at home. 61% over 2.5 goals at home last season for Leicester. Last season, away to top 11 ( leic were 10th), Bristol only beat Swansea ( 0-1) 57% over 2.5 goals away from home. Signals a potential lay of City if last year's form is not improved upon.
745pm - Maccabi Haifa v Genk - 4.4 away - Genk impressed me last season in the Belgian League and could get something this evening. Perhaps lay Maccabi on that basis? 2 draws and a win so far in the league for Genk. Against Partizan, Genk were extremely lucky - a penalty in both legs and a 92nd minute winner in the home leg against a 10 man Partizan ( and genk themselves were down to 10 )
10pm - Barcelona v Real Madrid - 1.97 home - now I don't know if away goals count etc in this 2nd leg of the Spanish Super Cup but I would be keen to oppose Real Madrid especially if they score first again. Barca at home should be a different proposition.
515 BELLEWSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Diamond Daze, 11/8 Boom To Bust, 10/1 Zero Euro, 25/1 Barkins Hill, 25/1 Matua Flyer, 33/1 Lazarian, 66/1 Volcanic Jack, 100/1 Gordon Lord Byron, 100/1 Sultana Belle, 100/1 Wonderful Memories.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to be a straight match between Boom To Bust and DIAMOND DAZE, with marginal preference being given to the latter. [Kevin Blake]
Diamond Daze would be my choice here of the 2 main protagonists given he has 2 2nd places and PAt Smullen on board.
350 CARLISLE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Present Danger, 4/1 Diablo Dancer, 6/1 Bella Noir, 8/1 Alluring Star, 8/1 First Class Favour, 14/1 Breezolini, 16/1 Indian Giver, 20/1 Ishiadancer, 33/1 Social Rhythm.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alluring Star goes well here but the presence of other front-runners is enough to look elsewhere this time. Present Danger is sure to be popular given her profile and she has to be on the shortlist, but DIABLO DANCER ran well off this mark last week and she has a couple of relations who were fully effective on easy ground.[Paul Smith]
11/10 - - -6/1 price gapper this Present Danger in a handicap.
730 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Whitstable Native, 5/1 Novabridge, 6/1 Cool Water Oasis, 6/1 Jahanara, 6/1 Prophet In A Dream, 10/1 Aurivorous.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Moderate stuff and WHITSTABLE NATIVE is the not-so-confident choice, preferred to Cool Water Oasis.[Ron Wood]
6 runners now and Whitstable Native is still a price gapper. good probability of finishing in the top 3 but this is a lowly class 6 handicap.
740 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Snow Blizzard, 100/30 On Terms, 7/1 No Choice, 8/1 Crazy Chris, 12/1 Beat All Out, 20/1 Highland Park, 25/1 Dr Anubis, 33/1 Megagrace, 50/1 Bawdsey Bank.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Snow Blizzard went down fighting on his recent stable debut and is sure to be popular with AP McCoy on board again but the winner has looked nothing special on his other hurdle runs and the value of the form is open to question. Consequently, a chance is taken on hurdling newcomer ON TERMS. [Chris Wilson]
2 to dominate here? McCoy's Snow Blizzard obviously popular.
305 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Seville, 3/1 Sea Moon, 7/2 Namibian, 14/1 Al Kazeem, 14/1 Hunter´s Light, 20/1 Thimaar, 25/1 Genius Beast, 50/1 Regent Street.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The moment of truth for Sea Moon who has to put substance to his promise if he is to prove himself a genuine Leger contender. Namibian has a fine attitude but SEVILLE (nap) is clearly the one to beat on form and can further strengthen his claims for the season's final Classic.[Adrian Cook]
8 runners - 3 places and 3 under 14/1 in the betting forecast. Seville is obvious of Aidan O'Brien but Mark Johnston has been very positive about the chances of Namibian is rain softened ground.
340 YORK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Await The Dawn, 9/4 Midday, 9/2 Twice Over, 66/1 Zafisio, 150/1 Windsor Palace.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race Khalid Abdullah's Juddmonte is very keen to win with crack filly Midday pitched in here alongside their 2010 runner-up Twice Over, but it is another of their breeding, AWAIT THE DAWN, who is expected to take the prize back to Ballydoyle.[Adrian Cook]
3 horse race for 2 places -Await the Dawn is odds on, but the other 2 cannot be split price wise.
SHORTLIST
4pm - Partizan Minsk II v FC Minsk - 1.08 away - moving away from illiquid Betfair, I suspect goals could be the call here in the over 3.5 goal category. Worth the risk I think.745pm - B Munich v FC Zurich - 1.21 home -Bayern lost their first match of the season at home and surely will not do so a 2nd time. Slight concern with the absence of Arjen Robben.
10pm - Barcelona v Real Madrid - 1.97 home - lay Real Madrid if they score first.
515 BELLEWSTOWN - Diamond Daze should have good place claims here under leading Irish Flat jockey.
730 FOLKSTONE - less than enamoured by the race type, I do like the fact this is a 6 runner race for 3 places and original market leader Whitstable Native retains favouritism and price gapper status ( remember though this is 11am analysis and race time is 730pm!!)
305 YORK -perhaps the best race of the day for me. A high class field likely to be dominated by 3 horses under 14/1. Add to the fact this is an 8 runner race for 3 places and we have the ideal ingredients. Seville is the obvious one here, but for speculators, Mark Johnston is very bullish as regards Namibian and these horses' " thou shalt not pass" attitude might make for a good value each way bet.
Seville is a reasonable 1.25 to place currently with Namibian a juicy 1.73 to place.
340 YORK - as is typical of an Ebor meeting we have another high class race and 3 horses for 2 places. Default to the odds on shot await the dawn at about 1.25 to place?
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