back-lay-trade-horses-football: 7/8

Strong football contenders today in Celtic, against an Aberdeen team without a goal scored so far, Copenhagen against Koge, and others such as Porto , Ajax, and Bayern Munich strong contenders. Perhaps a multiple on these teams?

I think the strongest bet would have to be FC Copenhagen today against a Koge team who have conceded 3 in each of their 3 and a Copenhagen team scoring 2 in each of their 3 matches this season.

***** ONE A DAY - 3pm - HB Koge v FC Copenhagen - BACK FC COPENHAGEN IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.32 *****

Tampines Rovers won, albeit a Fergie time winner. It shows they are not in the best of form at present. 3 1-0 wins now .

1215pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.34 away - with Rangers already dropping 2 points, Celtic must ideally keep the pressure up with a win away at Aberdeen.

17.04.2011	Cup	Aberdeen FC	0-4	Celtic FC
01.02.2011	PR	Aberdeen FC	0-3	Celtic FC
29.01.2011	LC	Aberdeen FC	1-4	Celtic FC
22.01.2011	PR	Celtic FC	1-0	Aberdeen FC
06.11.2010	PR	Celtic FC	9-0	Aberdeen FC
13.02.2010	PR	Aberdeen FC	4-4	Celtic FC

Head to heads point to a comfortable afternoon. Celtic won 2-0 away at Hibs when priced higher than 1.34 so that augurs well for this afternoon.
Aberdeen drew 0-0 at home to St Johnstone and lost 1-0 away to St Mirren. They have not scored a goal yet which points to the likelihood that Celtic will score first and likely go and replicate their last 2 victories where they did not concede. In fact, Celtic have only conceded 1 in their last 5 head to heads in all competitions and kept clean sheets in the last 3 head to heads.

1pm - Singapore Armed Forces v Young Lions - 1.37 home
HEAD TO HEADS

12.02.2011	D1	Young Lions	0-2	Singapore Armed Forces
07.10.2010	D1	Singapore Armed Forces	5-2	Young Lions
17.06.2010	D1	Young Lions	1-0	Singapore Armed Forces
08.04.2010	D1	Young Lions	4-3	Singapore Armed Forces
17.08.2009	D1	Young Lions	0-5	Singapore Armed Forces
27.06.2009	D1	Singapore Armed Forces	2-1	Young Lions

2-2 in most recent head to heads but SAF came out the winners in the most recent 2.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 9th

HOME TEAM - SAF

RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWDWWWLW - losses v 2nd and 6th were both 1-0s. Draw was one of, get this, only 3 in 43 home matches -talk about standout stats!

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLDWWWWWLLWL - again a scarcity of draws in overall matches ( home and away) -only 3 in last 38 home and away matches is a huge standout stat. Losses recently against 1st, 3rd and 6th, with 2 1-0's recently

GOAL TRENDS - no strong trend at home with overs and unders. 7 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw at home, 3 clean sheets. 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 2 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - YOUNG LIONS

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDLWLWW - good recent form. - beating 3rd, 8th and 11th. Losses against 2nd, 4th and 6th - 2 of those losses were 1-0

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLWWLLWWLW - no draw in 8 and remember SAF's monster draw stats!Recent wins v 3rd, 6th, 8th, 10th, 11th - predominantly lower half of , it must be said, a league of only 12 teams.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 3 losses, 2 draws, 3 clean sheets. 1.25 scored, 1 conceded on average away from home.

STREAKS - 9 games without a draw, 4 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - what chance a draw today? So scarce in SAF matches and , in recent times, in Young Lions matches. I would like to lay the draw but I suspect the price is not very appealing from a layer's perspective. So if it's not a draw, it must be a 2 result game - home win or away win. Most likely to result in a win for SAF but as I say, laying the draw looks the call here based on all known form.

1pm - West Ham v Cardiff - 1.86 home - like Brum yesterday, West Ham are relegated yet still have a Premiership pedigree. Brum scored first yesterday for the traders, despite losing, -will West Ham do the same? An Allardyce like team? We will have to wait and see.
130pm - De Graafschap v Ajax - 1.34 away - one of the triumvirate. A Suarez less Ajax - how much will his absence impact on them. He scored a ridiculous amount of goals for Ajax, high 40's every season so will be extremely hard to replace.

04.02.2011	D1	AFC Ajax	2-0	De Graafschap
29.08.2010	D1	De Graafschap	0-5	AFC Ajax
15.03.2009	D1	AFC Ajax	3-0	De Graafschap
21.12.2008	D1	De Graafschap	0-6	AFC Ajax
06.04.2008	D1	AFC Ajax	4-1	De Graafschap
19.08.2007	D1	De Graafschap	1-8	AFC Ajax

Suarez scored 7 goals in 4 matches against this lot. Ajax have not conceded in 4 meetings and scored 8 - 6-5 in 3 away head to heads. It points to a price a lot lower than 1.34 that's for sure. The 1.34 factors in the fact this is away, is the first match of the season, and ajax are missing Suarez.Feyenoord won their first match of the season and this could be an ideal launching pad for a win and an enhancement of the goals for column.
We are betting blind really unless there are any dutch experts who can analyse the Ajax squad minus Suarez.
This is 1st v 14th from last season and away Ajax only lost 3 times to top 9 sides, drew 4 times again to top 6 sides. 8 wins and a draw against teams 10th and lower away from home.
That's all we can go on -historic stats, and as you know this is less than ideal .
130pm - Sparta Rotterdam v Fortuna Sittard - 1.51 home - 74% of Fortuna's matches last season were over 2.5 goals. In fact, in one part of the season they had an 18 match run over 2.5 goals . Away from home last season, they conceded an average 2.41 goals and won only 2 away games.

11.03.2011	D2	Fortuna Sittard	3-1	Sparta Rotterdam
03.09.2010	D2	Sparta Rotterdam	3-3	Fortuna Sittard
06.05.2005	D2	Fortuna Sittard	3-0	Sparta Rotterdam
03.12.2004	D2	Sparta Rotterdam	4-3	Fortuna Sittard
05.04.2004	D2	Sparta Rotterdam	1-0	Fortuna Sittard
03.10.2003	D2	Fortuna Sittard	1-1	Sparta Rotterdam

Only 2 recent head to heads see the over 2.5 goals trend easily breached. Fortuna's last 5 matches ( all friendlies though) have all been over 2.5 goals.
76% of Sparta's matches last season were over 2.5 goals. They had no draw in their last 15 matches overall last season.They lost only 4 at home last season, against 1st, 2nd, 5th and 14th. In Matches against bottom 4 at home, total goals were 6-6-5-13! Yes 13!
Goals today . Of course first match of season but let's hope for a continuation of trends from last season.
230pm - Ham-Kam v Lov Ham - 1.31 home
230pm - Man City v Man Utd - 2.36 away

16.04.2011	Cup	Manchester City	1-0	Manchester United
12.02.2011	PR	Manchester United	2-1	Manchester City
10.11.2010	PR	Manchester City	0-0	Manchester United
17.04.2010	PR	Manchester City	0-1	Manchester United
27.01.2010	LC	Manchester United	3-1	Manchester City
19.01.2010	LC	Manchester City	2-1	Manchester United

The head to heads point towards an argument for backing 0-0 as a trade initially for the first 25 minutes or so ( or as long as you dare). The 2-1 saw a 40th minute then 2 65+ minute goals. This is the Charity Shield or whatever you want to call it. Expect the strongest teams to be picked. As ever with an ever changing team sheet, it is difficult to go on historical form here, especially when United are no longer with Van Der Saar ( a huge miss in a vital position) - best tackled as a reactive trader I think.
3pm - HB Koge v FC Copenhagen - 1.32 away
There are teams you just warm too as a punter and as a trader , Porto for one, barcelona, and FC Copenhagen too!
HEAD TO HEADS

05.05.2010	D1	FC København	4-0	HB Køge
18.10.2009	D1	HB Køge	0-2	FC København
25.07.2009	D1	FC København	7-1	HB Køge
19.06.2005	D1	FC København	1-1	Herfølge BK

Only 3 relevant head to heads here see total dominance from FC Copenhagen, albeit a smaller scoreline away from home.

LEAGUE POSITION 12th ( of 12) v 3rd -

HOME TEAM -KOGE

RECENT HOME FORM - L - 3 conceded in a 2-3 loss

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLL - conceded 3 in each match so far this season - a small trend to work with , albeit short trends are not strong trends.

GOAL TRENDS - too early to have any realistic trends but 3 conceded in 3 matches means that, against the best team in Denmark, there may be a chance that Copenhagen can replicate this.

STREAKS - 3 match losing streak

AWAY TEAM - FC COPENHAGEN

RECENT AWAY FORM - W - 0-2 win against Sonderjylland

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDW - Copenhagen have scored 2 goals in all matches so far this season. They were winning against Odense but ended drawing 2-2

GOAL TRENDS - 2 scored so far in each match. 2 2-0 wins and a 2-2 draw.

STREAKS - no defeat in 3

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - we have little to work on but very small trends - Koge concede 3 in all matches so far this season, losing them all, and FC Copenhagen score 2 in all 3 matches this season. You don't have to be Shirley K Holmes to deduce that FC Copenhagen have a realistic opportunity to score 2 or more away from home as long as they have a full complement of players. I reiterate that short trends are not strong trends and this early in the season ACROSS ALL LEAGUES we have to bet/trade in the knowledge that we have little to work on.

430pm - B Munich v Mgladbach - 1.23 home

02.04.2011	D1	Bayern München	1-0	Mönchengladbach
06.11.2010	D1	Mönchengladbach	3-3	Bayern München
24.04.2010	D1	Mönchengladbach	1-1	Bayern München
04.12.2009	D1	Bayern München	2-1	Mönchengladbach
02.05.2009	D1	Bayern München	2-1	Mönchengladbach
15.11.2008	D1	Mönchengladbach	2-2	Bayern München

Again we can only go by historical data for this first match of the season for both sides. Bayern at home, won 2-1, 2-1, 1-0 which indicates Monchengladbach can be tough to beat.
3rd v 16th and Bayern were 10 points shy of top and Monchengladbach just glad they're back in the Bundesliga after a flirtation with Relegation. Bayern only lost 2 matches at home against 1st and 5th. Sole draws were both 0-0's. 82% of home matches were over 2.5 goals although I do not know what impact the absence of Robben and Ribery might have.
3 of 5 away wins for Monch came against top 6 sides ( 3 of the 5 wins were 1-0). They conceded an average of 2 goals away last season.
5pm - Lillestrom v Sarpsborg - 1.42 home
5pm - Lokomotiv v Kryliya Sovetov - 1.29 home
5pm - Shakhtar v Kryvbas - 1.18 home
5pm - Valerenga v Sogndal - 1.46 home
530pm - Dinamo Kiev v Karpaty - 1.34 home - 4 matches into the Ukrainian season sees DWWD for Kiev and LDLL for Karpaty who were in the Europa League ( so they must have had a decent season last season) - still a little early for strong trends. Shaktar beat karpaty 2-1 recently ( Karpaty scored first) and Kiev are capable of replicating that , but the draw is a problem for kiev
9pm - Porto v Guimaraes - 1.33 home - Portugeuse Super Cup a precursor to the season sees unbeaten Porto face Guimaraes, who they beat 2-6 in the Cup in May, and 2-0 previous to that. Porto are obvious here if taking this seriously. They are missing their manager but let's face it, he could have just been lucky to have had such a good squad when he was in charge.

230 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Banimpire, 11/4 Dunboyne Express, 7/1 Mutahadee, 8/1 Gemstone, 10/1 Cocozza, 12/1 Aoife Alainn.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The relentless progress of BANIMPIRE is showing no signs of slowing and she is selected to add to her tally. Dunboyne Express is her biggest danger on the book, but the promising Mutahadee shouldn t be underestimated. [Kevin Blake]

A superb card at the Curragh and this race could see the dependable Bolger/Manning partnership get Banimpire to place at least. 4/5 - - - - 5/1 - the betting market expect too

335 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Maybe, 100/30 Remember Alexander, 5/1 Teolane, 7/1 Yellow Rosebud, 8/1 Rubina, 11/1 Soon, 16/1 Lightening Pearl, 16/1 Redoutable, 50/1 Tiffilia, 100/1 Chieftess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A high-class renewal in which a case could be made for most of them, despite the presence of standout Guineas favourite MAYBE. Many were unimpressed with the optics of her Leopardstown win and the chances are she was just doing enough. In contrast, Remember Alexander is probably not quite as good as she looked in the Tyros, but it was still an outstanding effort and, rated 1lb below Maybe, she is a danger. Teolane, who blotted her copybook at Royal Ascot after a busy spell, is a threat on her previous efforts. The dark ones are maiden winners Rubina and Yellow Rosebud. [Johnny Ward]

Wow! Another excellent race and Aidan O'brien and son have Maybe here - 5 under 16/1 here affords us a good probability bet.

505 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Deacon Blues, 15/8 Hitchens, 10/1 Empowering, 12/1 Six Of Hearts, 20/1 Arctic, 20/1 Winker Watson, 25/1 Norville, 25/1 Radharcnafarraige, 50/1 Oor Jock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to effectively be a match between DEACON BLUES and Hitchens. The superior draw and progressive profile of the former is enough to sway the argument in his favour. [Kevin Blake]

2 under 10/1 with Deacon Blues the strong market leader

250 DOWNPATRICK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Atlanta Falcon, 9/4 Bachelor Lad, 25/1 Bold Apache, 33/1 Lucks Certain.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A match barring calamities. ATLANTA FALCON has been landing ordinary British races and Gordon Elliott will be surprised to find an Irish race so winnable. Bachelor Lad has a chance if he runs to his mark but he was disappointing here last time. His supporters will be hoping that he can dictate a tactical race. [Johnny Ward]

A match barring accidents, and therefore Bachelor lad is the value placer instead of the obvious Falcon.

450 DOWNPATRICK

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Court Lexi, 7/2 Savello, 10/1 Prowling Tiger, 12/1 Stella´s Delight, 14/1 Back Load, 20/1 Dr Dan, 20/1 Mullaghwillin Boy, 20/1 Whereisthemoneynow, 25/1 Bridgets Pet, 25/1 Pond Cottage, 33/1 Fighting Kate, 50/1 Well In.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Savello could make a race of it if ready for action after his break but even he'll need to find some improvement to contain COURT LEXI, who should make it third time lucky under Nina Carberry.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

2 2nd places for Gordon Elliott's horse and with Nina back in the plate,another place at least looks assured in this bumper.

SHORTLIST

1215pm - Aberdeen v Celtic - 1.34 away - a very appealing price about Celtic -Aberdeen have not scored yet and look to face an uphill task against one of the Old Firm. early in the season though but the hope is Celtic will enhance their lead over Rangers which might be a telling lead, even though we are still in August.