back-lay-trade-horses-football: 8/8

*****ONE A DAY - 1pm - Woodlands Wellington v Albirex Niigata - back Albirex in the match odds at 1.28 ( try not to go any lower) Back 0-0 at odds of 29 to win the amount you staked on Albirex.
e.g Back Albirex in the match odds at 1.28 for £100
Go to the Correct score market and back 0-0 at odds of 29 for £3.70 which will return £99.70 if the match remains 0-0 final score.
So look to win back what ever you staked on Albirex in the 0-0 market.

FC Copenhagen managed 4 goals with ease yesterday. Couple of shock results in some leagues where the seasons were just starting. Bayern Munich lost 1-0 and Fortuna v Sparta saw only a single goal. It goes to show that it is difficult to research based on what happened last year.

1pm - Woodlands Wellington v Albirex Niigata - 1.28 away
HEAD TO HEADS

10.05.2011	D1	Albirex Niigata (S)	5-0	Woodlands Wellington
21.02.2011	D1	Woodlands Wellington	0-1	Albirex Niigata (S)
03.11.2010	D1	Albirex Niigata (S)	1-0	Woodlands Wellington
15.07.2010	D1	Woodlands Wellington	0-0	Albirex Niigata (S)
26.04.2010	D1	Woodlands Wellington	1-2	Albirex Niigata (S)
22.02.2010	LC	Woodlands Wellington	0-0/p.4-3	Albirex Niigata (S)

An argument can be made that, on their day, Woodlands could keep it tight - they have done in 4 of the 6 most recent head to heads. 2 recent 1-0's saw 86th and 93rd minute goals for Albirex. This might hint at a 0-0 cover today . But then suddenly 5-0 in May - first goal took 40 minutes and 2 goals were scored in the last 4 minutes which puts a gloss on the scoreline.

LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 5th and a win takes Albirex provisionally 3rd.

HOME TEAM - WOODLANDS

RECENT HOME FORM - LLLDLLLLLLW - draw against 7th and recent win against 10thwas a 1-0.REcent losses against 6th and 4th have seen Woodlands concede 5 goals which coincidentally is the exact number Albirex scored in most recent head to heads.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLLLLLLLWW - recent wins against 6th and 10th generally anomolous and by a single goal margin.

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 9 losses, 1 draw, 1 clean sheet , 0.73 scored and 2.55 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 16 matches overall without a draw, 8 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - ALBIREX

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWWLLWLWL - again it looks like one of those matches where draws are likely to be absent. Losses v 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and wins against 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th ( previously), 12th and they are playing 11th today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLWWLWWWLWWWLW - generally strong overall form and a dearth of draws. Recent losses v 2nd, 4th and 7th.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 5 losses, 0 draws, 3 clean sheets , 1.7 scored, 1.1 conceded on average away from home.

STREAKS - 5 overall without a loss.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - You get the feeling this might be tight early on with perhaps Albirex getting the upper hand in the 2nd half. I would hope that the first goal comes after the half hour in keeping with recent head to heads, making a back of 0-0 interesting ( and at such big odds)
In fact, I would back Albirex and the 0-0 cover as a bettor.
The draw is something these teams avoid, and if the draw price is too high to lay, then perhaps back Albirex? I would wait until a few minutes into the match as you might get better odds on Albirex. Always a risk of an early goal but history points to tight matches. Woodlands recent ability to win 2 on the trot might help enhance this tightness early on.

5pm - Ventspils v Gulbene - 1.18 home - 4th v 7th in a league of 9, and such small leagues can be tricky.. Ventspils have only played 16 matches what with other European Cup matches in the interim. The rest of the league are on 18/19 matches so Ventspils are in a false position in 4th. A win will take them top on goal difference with 2 games to spare over current 1st placed.

28.05.2011	D1	Gulbene 2005	0-2	FK Ventspils
13.04.2011	D1	FK Ventspils	4-0	Gulbene 2005

in head to heads -2 wins without conceding. Very illiquid market.
WWWWWWLL at home for ventspils and they have scored 4 on 5 occasions. As you know by now, sub 1.2 usually indicates goals.
Losses against 2nd and 3rd in the leagueboth 1-0's
WWWWDWWWWWWWLLDL - what has happened in the last 4 matches? Losses to 5rd, 1st, 2nd and draw v 3rd.
Just coincidence that they are playing top 5 sides consecutively?
LLLLWLLWL - all over 2.5 goals these away matches for Gulbene. They beat 3rd and 9th - no draws away.
DLWDLDLD - recent form overall very inconsistent.Sole win recently against bottom side.

Limited research here as it is a league of 9 teams and slight concern with the recent wobble from Ventspils after such strong performance. They are capableof scoring 4 at home as they have done regularly.

6pm - Levski Sofia v Slavia Sofia - 1.31 home - this would seem to be the first match of the Bulgarian league so is best left alone.

845pm - Barcelona v Girona - 1.48 home - when I looked yesterday Barca were 1.36 so watch out for team changes. This is the Copa Catalunya and I suppose Barca win it every year? Barca B beatn Girona 2-0 as recently as May so they are definitely vulnerable. Now 1.53 in the match odds ( albeit an illiquid market) betfairians are keen to lay Barca here. I would see this as approaching a value bet the higher the odds.
A match for team news nearer to 845pm - see the Barca website for more details.

620 BALLINROBE

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Hisaabaat, 11/4 Jouster, 3/1 Luggers Hall, 5/1 Extra Steps, 12/1 Vasoni, 16/1 Eastern Rules, 16/1 Mathildesfootsteps, 33/1 Red Allie, 50/1 Volcanic Jack.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HISAABAAT remains open to improvement and is selected to overcome his poor draw. Jouster is his biggest danger. [Kevin Blake]

5 under 25/1 here and Hisaabaat is the Weld/SMullen horse and commands respect.

850 BALLINROBE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Abarta, 5/2 Craigs Dream, 100/30 Alhellal, 14/1 Imperial Joey, 25/1 Like A Comet, 25/1 Mr Lomas, 25/1 Onlyonasunday, 25/1 Vicalus, 33/1 Baako, 33/1 Fragrant Island, 33/1 Rosee Des Bieffes, 50/1 Rulesofengagement, 50/1 Turnpike Palm.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There's no great temptation to see past the consistent ABARTA (nap), whose latest piece of form at Roscommon was given a terrific boost at Galway. Alhellal and Craigs Dream can offer most resistance.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 under 14/1 currently in this maiden hurdle, and as this is nearer 9pm than 10am, a look at the market is a must nearer race time.

430 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Kawssaj, 5/2 Brinmore, 6/1 Noverton, 7/1 Cahala Dancer, 8/1 Cookieshake, 20/1 Jumeira Field, 40/1 Nubian Gem, 100/1 Pastoral Jet.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was surprising and disappointing to see KAWSSAJ turned over at Warwick last time but he still retains potential to develop into a fairly smart performer and may be too good for Brinmore. [Chris Wilson]

5 under 16/1 and Kawssaj has had 2 runs which I feel is important in maidens. Still learning though although as a 3 year old I am not as concerned as I would be were this a 2 year old.

500 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Valmina, 8/1 Highland Harvest, 10/1 Defector, 10/1 Rio Royale, 12/1 Fantasy Fighter, 12/1 Pippa´s Gift, 12/1 Towy Boy, 14/1 Caramelita, 14/1 Picansort, 16/1 Speak The Truth, 25/1 Interchoice Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VALMINA clearly appreciated the return to 6f here on Friday and scored with some authority. He should be able to defy his 6lb penalty. [Chris Wilson]

What a huge price gap! 15/8 - - - - 8/1

5/2 - - - -11/2 in the live betting market is a lot different. As this is a class 5 0-70 handicap, it might take the gloss off the initial price gap.

215 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Supercharged, 100/30 Sannibel, 6/1 Howyadoingnotsobad, 10/1 Cheeky Wee Red, 12/1 Avon Rising, 16/1 Boucher Garcon, 20/1 Ivory Trilogy, 25/1 By Implication, 40/1 Renesmee.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUPERCHARGED has been beaten at odds-on on her last two starts but she had equipment failure on the first occasion and may not have handled Fibresand when running into an improver on her recent comeback. There are some risks attached but she has a BHA mark of 75 and should take some stopping if running anywhere near her best form. The main dangers are Sannibel and Howyadoingnotsobad.[David Moon]

3 under 14/1 and a 4/6 shot as favourite. Should place I hope.

SHORTLIST

As is typical of a Monday, after a weekend of multiple opportunities, it is a relatively poor day.