19/8

***** ONE A DAY - 920 WOLVES - KEPLERS LAW TO PLACE ONLY - Betfair SP advised as this is a long way away*****




Midnight fun won, and thus placed, but the race was reduced to 4 runners from 5 so the odds I wanted ( 1.35 ) were reduced considerably. A real pity.

3pm - Ural v Khimki - 1.48 home - Russian 2nd flight but I will use the betting research template as this league has been going for some time and trends should make themselves known if they are there.
HEAD TO HEADS

15.04.2011	D2	FK Khimki	3-1	FK Ural
11.09.2010	D2	FK Khimki	1-1	FK Ural
10.05.2010	D2	FK Ural	0-2	FK Khimki
06.10.2006	D2	FK Ural	2-1	FK Khimki

The head to heads certainly do not point to Ural being 1.48 shots do they? Ural have not won the recent meetings of interest from 2010 onwards.

LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 16th in a league of 20. 21 matches played so far. A win takes Ural 4th in the league ( a tight top part of the league)

HOME TEAM - URAL

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWDLDWWD - only 2 losses at home - against 5th and 12th - draws against 3rd, 4th, 19th, 2 of them 0-0's

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWDWWDWDWWL - recent losses v 5th, 11th and most recently 13th ( 1-0 loss with a 19th minute red card for Ural) Recent wins against 6th, 9th, 10th, 12th, 17th

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 2 losses, 3 draws, 5 clean sheets, 1.5 scored, 1 conceded at home.The average goals conceded is 0.63 and anything under 1, for me, signals a good defence.

STREAKS - 5 home matches without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - KHIMKI

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDLDLDDLWL - only win was against bottom side with an 88th minute winner. Now that really will have Ural quivering!! A lot of draws, against 13th, 19th, 1st, 11th. 3 of those draws were score draws.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDLDLLDLWLWLD - only 2 wins recently against 4th and 20th, both 1-0 wins. 6 losses recently against 15th, 3rd, 8th, 6th, 5th

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 6 losses, 4 draws, 2 clean sheets away - 0.82 scored at home and 1.64 conceded away

STREAKS - 3 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - first thing to note are the head to heads which see Ural struggle ( since 2010). Only 2 losses at home for Ural so they should not lose, but whether they are backable is another matter. Recent wins against 6th,9th, 10th, 12th, 17th augurs well against 16th today.0.63 concession rate overall is very good ( anything sub 1 is).
Khimki have only won 1 match away this season, an 88th minute winner against bottom side.
This is a match where I would look to laying Khimki. In all honesty, without soccerstats, it's hard to nail real trends. And we do not need to get involved in all matches we research

330pm - Shinnik v Baltika - 1.4 home
HEAD TO HEADS

04.07.2011	Cup	Shinnik Yaroslavl	2-1	Baltika Kaliningrad
15.04.2011	D2	Baltika Kaliningrad	0-1	Shinnik Yaroslavl
06.11.2010	D2	Shinnik Yaroslavl	1-1	Baltika Kaliningrad
06.07.2010	D2	Baltika Kaliningrad	0-1	Shinnik Yaroslavl
22.10.2009	D2	Shinnik Yaroslavl	0-0	Baltika Kaliningrad
24.06.2009	D2	Baltika Kaliningrad	0-2	Shinnik Yaroslavl

Most recent head to heads have been tight and Shinnik have not lost. Only 1 over 2.5 goal match and that was in the cup.

LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 18th in the league and a win takes Shinnik 4th.

HOME TEAM - SHINNIK

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWLDLWWW - 2 losses at home against 7th and 9th. Wins against 11th, 15th,16th, 17th, 20th. playing 18th in the league today, and beat 4 of the bottom 6 already at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLWWWWWW - good recent winning streak for Shinnik - comprehensive win against 16th 4-1, but the other recent wins have been 1 goal wins 2-1, 2-3, 2-3, 0-1, 1-0 - this indicates a fighting spirit and may help the REACTIVE TRADER if Shinnik concede first.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 2 losses, 2 draws, 4 clean sheets, 1.78 scored, 0.89 conceded at home on average.

STREAKS - 9 games overall without a draw, and 6 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - BALTIKA

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLDDWDDDLD - only the single win away 2-3 against bottom side. BUT check out the draws against 6th, 4th, 17th, 16th, 9th, 19th, either 1-1 or 0-0. Losses against 3rd, 7th, 8th, 10th and playing 6th today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDLWLDLLLWL - wins recently against 15th and 4th

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 4 losses, 6 draws , 3 clean sheets,0.64 scored, 1.64 conceded away on average.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Shinnik are unlikely to lose today based on head to heads. 2 losses at home against 7th and 9th and playing 18th today. On a 6 match winning streak currently but a lot of 1 goal wins , hard fought victories which might alert you to a trade if Shinnik concede first. 9 overall without a draw for Shinnik.
Baltika love their draws away though!BUT losses against 3rd, 7th, 8th and 10th and playing 6TH today.
Interesting draw stats for Baltika, 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 home correct scores potentially, but I would be more inclined to lay baltika and I would also look at this match from a REACTIVE trading perspective given Shinnik's fighting spirit recently. I expect a tight scoreline

7pm - Roda JC v Waalwijk - 1.56 home

03.04.2010	D1	Roda Kerkrade	5-1	RKC Waalwijk
26.09.2009	D1	RKC Waalwijk	4-1	Roda Kerkrade
16.03.2007	D1	RKC Waalwijk	3-2	Roda Kerkrade

Goals anyone? Waalwijk have won 2 of the last 3 head to heads and as they are outsiders, a neutral goals bet covers both sides.
2-1 home win and 3-0 away loss so far for Roda.
2-2 draw for Waalwijk ( 2 85th and 90th minute goals for Waalwijk) and a 1-0 away defeat v PSV.
Not much to go on as this is the 3rd match of the season and the trends will appear throughout these european leagues come the end of September.
715pm - FK Jablonec v Banik Ostrava - 1.31 home

08.05.2011	D1	FK Jablonec	3-3	Banik Ostrava
24.10.2010	D1	Banik Ostrava	1-3	FK Jablonec
07.03.2010	D1	Banik Ostrava	4-1	FK Jablonec
17.08.2009	D1	FK Jablonec	2-1	Banik Ostrava

Wow - they love the goals these 2 teams.Jablonec were 2-0 down in the last meeting. Jablonec have scored 4-3-3- in their last 3 meetings and to be fair, Banik have scored in each match too. An automatic over 2.5 goals call?
DLW overall this season - away loss v Sparta Prague.
3-0 loss away v Sigma the sole away match for Banik - again that number 3 recurrs.
LLL so far this season for Banik , 3-4, 3-0, 1-4 -again that number 3 reappears!
- again only 2 matches to go on for this new season sees jablonec draw 0-0 against Mlada and beat Bohemians 5-0.

745pm - Limerick v Salthill Devon - 1.08 home - as we saw last night, with Lazio winning 5-0 and PSG winning 4-0, both teams were sub 1.2 in odds. The inference therefore here is for a comfortable night for Limerick and the prospect of a win to nil.

26.05.2011	D1	Salthill Devon	0-1	Limerick FC
11.03.2011	D1	Limerick FC	3-0	Salthill Devon
09.02.2011	CF	Salthill Devon	0-4	Limerick FC
02.10.2010	D1	Salthill Devon	1-3	Limerick FC
09.07.2010	D1	Limerick FC	5-0	Salthill Devon
17.04.2010	D1	Salthill Devon	2-3	Limerick FC

In a day of goals, head to heads generally point to goals as per the 1.08 quote. 1-0 last time out anomolous.
43 points plays 9 points. recent losses for Limerick against 1st and 3rd should not overtly concern us today.
Salthill, like galway, are dire. 9 points from 21 matches is shocking.
6 of the last 8 Limerick matches overall have been over 2.5 goals.
They have won 6 and lost 2 of those 8 matches.
One win recently ( the only one away) against 2nd from bottom was a 3-1 win. 2 0-0 draws against 7th and 9th.
The only wins garnered by Salthill have come against the same side Wexford youths.
5-4-4-1-1-4-1-5 conceded by salthill recently.
With a quote of 1.08, Limerick should be capable of scoring 4-5 goals as has happened against Salthill Devon previously. 2 recent Limerick losses no real concern I think as they were against 1st and 3rd.

Dutch 2nd division matches are usually goal laden but I will not research them yet until there are more matches under the belt. Ditto with a number of other leagues.


435 KILBEGGAN

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 In A Nutshell, 11/4 Esporao, 9/2 Burma Rock, 13/2 Boxer Beat, 12/1 Arderin, 14/1 Good Conn, 14/1 Moonlight Dancer, 16/1 Two And Gone, 20/1 Zulu Principle, 33/1 Ballycomclone, 33/1 Capacity, 33/1 Highkingofmunster, 66/1 Cloneyhurke Flyer, 66/1 Oakmoss.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IN A NUTSHELL might be worth another chance and is primed to go close again, with the short run-in here probably in his favour. Burma Rock has more to do after his Tramore near-miss but can go well, as should Esporao if he partakes. [Johnny Ward]

Davey Russell did the business yesterday with a similarly profiled horse and In a Nutshell could place again . 5 under 20/1

700 SALISBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lord Ofthe Shadows, 5/2 Coupe De Ville, 11/2 Basantee, 7/1 Sound Advice, 9/1 Goldoni, 11/1 Opera Buff, 66/1 Thecornishcockney.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Richard Hannon has landed the last two renewals of this Listed event and, with the two highest rated runners, has an obvious chance of completing the hat-trick. Lord Of The Shadows stands out on form but conditions will impose much greater strain on his doubtful stamina and stable companion COUPE DE VILLE, more stoutly bred and proven on good to soft, is preferred. [Frank Carter]

Coupe de Ville takes over favouratism - 7 runners and 3 places makes for ideal place betting. Lord is the Hannon horse and he has targeted this race recently.

445 WEXFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Criostal, 15/8 Cloudracer, 4/1 Hazel Wand, 16/1 Nakuru Breeze, 25/1 Ice Ice Baby.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CRIOSTAL looked to know her job quite well on debut and that sharpness will be a valuable asset at this track. Cloudracer is her main danger on form, but she didn't look so streetwise on her debut and may still need this experience. [Kevin Blake]

3 horses for 2 places it looks like. Await the Dawn's failure to place yesterday in a similarly profiled race means we cannot readily discount any of the 3 main players.

920 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kepler´s Law, 7/1 Colonel Sherman, 7/1 Maoi Chinn Tire, 8/1 Straversjoy, 8/1 Zamina, 14/1 Blue Cossack, 14/1 Hygrove Welshlady, 25/1 Resplendent Ace.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This trip is probably a bare minimum for KEPLER'S LAW but he is still open to plenty of improvement and he can complete his hat-trick. The form of both his wins this year has been franked since and he is preferred to Maoi Chinn Tire and course specialist Straversjoy.[Paul Smith]

Huge price gapper here 11/10 - - -5/1 currently. 920pm means we need to look at the race a bit nearer but that price gap is still great and Kepler should place.

SHORTLIST

330pm - Shinnik v Baltika - 1.4 home - opponents love to draw and head to heads are tight. Can we trust Shinnik to win or do we need to cover the draw?

715pm - FK Jablonec v Banik Ostrava - 1.31 home - 1.23 over 1.5 goals ( slightly illiquid market) but looks a good bet if those 3 goals that tend to appear with these teams appears today.

745pm - Limerick v Salthill Devon - 1.08 home - 1.42 over 2.5 goals is suspiciously big for a 1.08 shot but represents value is sub 1.2's continue as they did yesterday.

700 SALISBURY - 4 under 12/1 and both favourites are Hannon horses. Trust them to dominate? Coupe de Ville the favourite.

920 WOLVES - Keplers Law is a big price gapper - on a hatrick and a Stoute/Sanders handicapper.

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