14/8

I am so tempted by Man Utd today, even more so if Peter Odimwegie is out for West Brom - he is a great striker and a big absence. Ajax look reasonable safe, Zenit more so.

*****ONE A DAY - 245pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Amkar - back Zenit in the match odds at 1.17***** If Peter Odimwegie is out of the West Brom first team, I would look to back Man United at 1.6 as an unofficial one a day, but I cannot tell you the WEst Brom team news at 11.25am



A pity , of all the football matches I could have chosen, I chose the one that ended 1-1.
A strong message let down by those Frenchies . I was eyeing up PSV, Polonia, Celtic as a one a day and wished i had gone with these!

130pm - Ajax v Heerenveen - 1.26 home -

01.05.2011	D1	SC Heerenveen	1-2	AFC Ajax
27.10.2010	D1	AFC Ajax	3-1	SC Heerenveen
13.02.2010	D1	SC Heerenveen	0-2	AFC Ajax
22.11.2009	D1	AFC Ajax	5-1	SC Heerenveen
31.01.2009	D1	AFC Ajax	0-1	SC Heerenveen

Ajax have scored 5 and 3 in last 2 head to heads at Ajax. Champions by 2 points last year so every point will count. 13 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats at home last season .They left last season on a home winning streak of 8.
Suarez no longer plying his trade at Ajax.
heerenveen finished 12th last season and their troubles against the top sides are evident last season where they won only 3 matches out of 22 against the top 11 home and away. Those 3 matches were at home.Lost 3-1 away at Ajax last time, but drew against 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th last season.
1-4 away win for Ajax on sole match of the season saw them go behind.
Heerenveen threw away a 2-0 lead at home to NEC Nijmegen to draw 2-2.
Could be a goal laden match and should be an Ajax win.

130pm - Stoke v Chelsea - 1.78 away - all matches must wins for Chelsea this season with Man United looking clear favourites for the title, and Man City buying like it's out of fashion. Liverpool slipped up yesterday and dropped 2 points at home.

02.04.2011	PR	Stoke City	1-1	Chelsea FC
28.08.2010	PR	Chelsea FC	2-0	Stoke City
25.04.2010	PR	Chelsea FC	7-0	Stoke City
07.03.2010	Cup	Chelsea FC	2-0	Stoke City
12.09.2009	PR	Stoke City	1-2	Chelsea FC
17.01.2009	PR	Chelsea FC	2-1	Stoke City

Stoke, at home, are tough to beat for Chelsea if the last 2 matches are anything to go by. Stoke scored first last time and scored first the time before at home. So enhanced traders take note if Stoke score first again, they could concede, so are layable or Chelsea backable at better odds.
13th against 2nd from last season.
10 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses and the only losses amongst the top 10 was v Man Utd and Spurs.
Away from home a different matter where Stoke lost against all of the top 8, but , hey, they are playing at home today. Solidity the calling card at home. Tough to beat. Conceded on average 0.94 at home last season which says it all really.
Chelsea won only 2 away matches against top 13 last season ( Stoke 13th) which is significant.
New management for Chelsea and in Torres they have a total waste of money. A ready alternative in Daniel Sturridge is actually injured and I see Chelsea having trouble getting a quick opener.
How good is this manager? His Porto side was superb - down to the Porto team or his tactical nouse? We will have to see. Likely the first half will see few goals. 0-0 again backable for the first 15-20 mins perhaps as with the Rangers match.
Remember we are talking about teams in a transfer window with some changes to last season and with no form bar pre season ( and remember Chelsea had a terrible pre season but finished 2nd last year). Tough to get an angle in on the first day .
BUT , I see the absence of Sturridge as significant for Chelsea.
245pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Amkar - 1.17 home
HEAD TO HEADS

17.04.2011	D1	Amkar Perm	1-3	Zenit St Petersburg
16.10.2010	D1	Zenit St Petersburg	2-0	Amkar Perm
10.05.2010	D1	Amkar Perm	0-2	Zenit St Petersburg
21.04.2010	Cup	Amkar Perm	0-0/p.2-4	Zenit St Petersburg
16.08.2009	D1	Amkar Perm	2-4	Zenit St Petersburg
12.04.2009	D1	Zenit St Petersburg	0-0	Amkar Perm

Plenty of goals for Zenit when these 2 meet.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 11th

HOME TEAM - ZENIT

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWDDWWWDW - beware, last 3 matches have been 1-0, 0-0, 1-0. But signals a strong Zenit defence as they have not conceded in their last 5 home matches. Draws against 4th, 8th, 14th. Sole loss at home was against top side.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDWWWDWWW - Zenit have not conceded in their last 7 matches overall. Superb defensive display.

GOAL TRENDS - last 6 matches under 2.5 goals because of this I suppose. 6 wins, 1 loss, 3 draws , 7 clean sheets at home.1.7 scored. 0.6 conceded at home.

STREAKS -10 overall without a loss, 5 at home without a loss, 7 overall without conceding.

AWAY TEAM - AMKAR

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDWLLLD - fortunate with draws and win - one 1-1 saw a late own goal secure Amkar the draw, the win was secured with 82nd and 90th minute winners. Positive results against 4th , 7th and 16th ( of 16)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWDWLLDL - last 3 losses have been to nil. Drew 1-1 with bottom side inbetween the losses. 3 1-0 wins have come at home against 10th, 13th, 14th -bottom half sides.

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 5 losses, 2 draws, 0 clean sheets - 0.75 scored, 2 conceded on average away

STREAKS - 4 overall without a win, 4 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this could be a win to nil match for Zenit where we can enhance the odds with a correct score bet. Amkar have lost 3 of their last 4 without scoring - they scored against bottom side. Zenit have not conceded in their last 7 matches. In the last 4 head to heads, Amkar have only scored 1. 2-0, 3-0, 4-0? Maybe start at the 3-0, 4-0 and a 3-1 in between incase? 1.17 usually signals 3/4 goals.

4pm - West Brom v Man Utd - 1.6 away. The great thing about the Community Shield is that we have had a sight of the new United and it looks GOOD! 1.6 could be a steal at the end of the match and looks invitingly high.

01.01.2011	PR	West Bromwich	1-2	Manchester United
16.10.2010	PR	Manchester United	2-2	West Bromwich
27.01.2009	PR	West Bromwich	0-5	Manchester United

75th minute Hernandez winner last time United visited and always goals in this encounter should see a neutral bet enough to cover a potential shock.
West Brom at home last season lost to the top 3 and drew against the 4th and 5th.
They won 8, drew 6, lost 5 and if this is reflected this term, they are more likely NOT to win than win.
68% over 2.5 goals at home
From www.premierleague.com

West Brom team news

New signing Shane Long is poised to make his West Brom debut in the match.

But Long's forward partner Peter Odemwingie is struggling to overcome the ankle injury suffered in the pre-season friendly at Bristol City a fortnight ago.

Right-back Steven Reid (calf) and Youssouf Mulumbu (abdominal strain) are available after injury but summer signing, defender Gareth McAuley, is ruled out through illness.

Man Utd team news

Patrice Evra is a major doubt for Manchester United's opening Barclays Premier League match at West Brom on Sunday.

The full-back was forced out of last week's Community Shield win over Manchester City with a knee injury and was not fit enough to play in France's midweek friendly with Chile.

United manager Sir Alex Ferguson confirmed Evra is still struggling, so either Fabio or Jonny Evans will likely step in. Darren Fletcher (virus) and Antonio Valencia are pencilled in for reserve-team appearances on Monday, while Javier Hernandez (concussion) is sidelined for another fortnight.

squads

West Bromwich Albion: Foster, Reid, Tamas, Olsson, Shorey, Mulumbu, Scharner, Brunt, Morrison, Thomas, Long, Odemwingie, Cox, Fulop, Jones, Cech, Tchoyi, Ibanez, Dorrans, Jara, Fortune.

Manchester United: De Gea, Lindegaard, Rafael, Smalling, Ferdinand, Vidic, Jones, Evra, Evans, Fabio, Nani, Park, Cleverley, Anderson, Carrick, Giggs, Young, Rooney, Berbatov, Welbeck, Diouf, Owen, Macheda.

Woy Hodgson at the helm at WBA helped WBA lose only 2 in their last 13 matches but remember the time of year! That is what he was employed to do. Keep WBA up Significantly though, Chelsea when visiting inflicted a 1-3 defeat on WBA during that period and under Woy's Tenure.

United lost away against 2nd, 4th, 6th and 17th last season 5 wins, 10 draws, 4 defeats. Will the new breed arrest the alarming double figure away draws? Imagine the accumulated dropped points. A steady 63% over 2.5 goals overall for United.

Completely new look about United this season and it will be interesting to see how Cleverley and Welbeck gel in the heat of Premiership battle.

7pm - Guimaraes v Porto - 1.51 away - first match without their manager who presided over an unbeaten season last season.

07.08.2011	SC	FC Porto	2-1	Vitória Guimarães
22.05.2011	Cup	Vitória Guimarães	2-6	FC Porto
05.03.2011	D1	FC Porto	2-0	Vitória Guimarães
04.10.2010	D1	Vitória Guimarães	1-1	FC Porto
18.04.2010	D1	FC Porto	3-0	Vitória Guimarães
04.12.2009	D1	Vitória Guimarães	1-4	FC Porto

A 1-1 draw in the last league encounter - Porto have scored first in last 4 matches, albeit 2 cup matches., These 2 met as recently as 7th August in the Cup and Porto scored first, Vitoria scored next, and Rolando got the winner.
Was Porto's winning streak all about the manager, or was the manager just lucky to be blessed with a team which picked itself?
This is 5th v 1st from last season.
Guimaraes only lost 2 at home last season. Will they be as strong this season? worse case, on this basis, is a draw, and as I see Porto scoring, a score draw IF you think the home side can continue their strong home form of last year. The key to home success? Defence! 20% over 2.5 goals at home signals this.
Porto nearly perfect last year.27 wins , 3 draws ( one against today's opponents)
13 wins and 2 draws away from home last season .
33% over 2.5 goals away from home seems strange - but it may be down to all the 0-2 wins for Porto away - 5 in total last season.
73% clean sheets away last season and scored in every away match last season.
I have to repeat " LAST SEASON" as we have no recent strong form to go on and need to see if Porto are different personnel wise and tactically under new management.
For me, Porto should score first and a speculative correct score 1-1, 0-2 , 1-2 to Porto might be worth it? I stress speculative as this is only the 1st match of the season.
9pm - Real Madrid v Barcelona - 3.15 away - yes please! I would have Barca over Real madrid any day of the week. Spanish Super Cup match .

03.05.2011	CL	FC Barcelona	1-1	Real Madrid
27.04.2011	CL	Real Madrid	0-2	FC Barcelona
20.04.2011	Cup	FC Barcelona	0-1 AET	Real Madrid
16.04.2011	D1	Real Madrid	1-1	FC Barcelona
29.11.2010	D1	FC Barcelona	5-0	Real Madrid
10.04.2010	D1	Real Madrid	0-2	FC Barcelona

Historically tight matches in the domestic Cups and in the last 4 head to heads in 2011. The Champions League is unique in that it is tactical and Barca got it spot on with 2 away goals.
Interestingly Barca have scored first in all of the last meetings shown above ( where there have been goals)
With all the attacking flare on the pitch, a back of 0-0 looks like betting suicide, but I see tightness early doors. Again 15-20 minutes and then up to you how long you stay in the 0-0. ( cue 1 minute Messi goal followed by Ronaldo equaliser after 2 minutes)
Any significant signings? Not sure. Both squads are superb. The Barca new players seem home grown. Villa pre season, what I saw of him, was sharp as a tack !

330 PONTEFRACT

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dever Dream, 11/2 Rimth, 7/1 Desert Poppy, 10/1 Dubai Media, 10/1 Folly Bridge, 12/1 Rose Blossom, 12/1 Sharnberry, 14/1 Ishbelle, 16/1 Capercaillie, 16/1 Sioux Rising, 20/1 Darajaat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The draw could have been better for DEVER DREAM but she has decent claims on her best form and this should be a suitable opportunity. Desert Poppy appeals as an in-form filly who is going the right way and she may be next best.[Emily Weber]

Price gapper here but Rimth is 10/3 and has shortened the price gap in this listed race. Rimth would be the value alternative based only on that small market move.

345 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Denton Ryal, 7/2 Medicinal, 9/2 El Presidente, 6/1 Highland Brave, 7/1 Mut´ab, 16/1 Dunaskin, 25/1 Spirit Of Love, 33/1 Lily Eva, 50/1 Caliban, 50/1 Cockney Colonel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Consistency counts for a lot in this grade so Denton Ryal deserves respect but she could be vulnerable under a double penalty and the booking of AP McCoy suggests a big run is expected from the formerly useful MEDICINAL.[Stuart Redding]

Medicinal into 5/2 favourite now - the McCoy factor?

415 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bhaltair, 7/4 Sharadiyn, 5/1 Paddy The Hare, 12/1 Sharmon, 16/1 Dont Tell Sailor, 25/1 Cashmere Ted, 25/1 Tregaro, 50/1 Starbird.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BHALTAIR is getting the hang of things over hurdles and he should have more to come, especially with the help of Sharadiyn in the field to cut out the early running. The latter looks the biggest threat, though Paddy The Hare should be involved providing the ground doesn't ease.[Emily Weber]

8 runners - 3 places - 2 market leaders but hang on, Paddy the Hare is now 5/2 in the betting and one of 3 under 12/1 - a big market move for Paddy is very interesting.

425 TRAMORE

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hampshire Express, 5/2 Fort George, 11/2 Sebadee, 6/1 Trendelenburg, 12/1 Credit Box, 12/1 Swift Counsel, 33/1 Saddler´s Native, 50/1 Duroob.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HAMPSHIRE EXPRESS makes most appeal to register his second victory over fences in this interesting conditions event with the locally-trained Fort George looking the obvious threat following his pleasing success over this trip at Killarney last month. [Brian Fleming]

8 runners - 3 places and a Townend/Mullins favourite - 4 under 16/1 -great probability race.

SHORTLIST

130pm - Ajax v Heerenveen - 1.26 home - - looks like a home win, and needs to be a home win for Ajax given the tightness of the league last year. heerenveen struggle against top 10 sides.

245pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Amkar - 1.17 home - a win to nil enhances the odds for a Zenit team who have not conceded in their last 7 matches.

4pm - West Brom v Man Utd - 1.6 away - this 1.6 could look big come 545pm. 1.28 over 1.5 goals is relatively good. united will want to change that 10 draw away stat from last season. There were no home wins yesterday in the Premiership. Hopefully this will continue.

7pm - Guimaraes v Porto - 1.51 away - a tough opener for Porto against a team who only lost 3 at home last season. Draw would be worse case scenario.

415 SOUTHWELL - 3 under 14/1 and Paddy the Hare is a significant mover. I would normally have opted for the Maguire/McCain runner Bhaltair but this market move for Paddy stands out. Clear round as ever assumed. Paddy should be around 1.6 if the market is liquid enough.

425 TRAMORE - Hampshire Express looks solid for the solid Townend/Mullins pairing. 1.26 to place is reasonable albeit in an illiquid market.