back-lay-trade-horses-football: 21/8

***** 3pm - CELTIC V ST JOHNSTONE - BACK CELTIC IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.19***** I wanted to go with Helsingborgs but the match odds market is currently illiquid.

Saved by an illiquid market. Bayern won and it was 0-0 in Zurich's match until Xamax scored 2 late goals! A shot across the bows that leagues of only 10 are perhaps not solid betting propositions.

1245pm - Naestved v Randers - 1.48 away - I thought it was worthy of investigation but there has only been 1 game in this Danish 2nd Division and there should be better matches available today.
5-4 loss for home side and 4-1 win for away side on sole match of season. Randers are newly relegated so should be competitive in this lower league. And I have mentioned before about focussing on newly promoted and newly relegated sides in order to get an angle in.
1pm - Syrianska FC v Elfsborg - 1.59 away
HEAD TO HEADS

27.06.2011	D1	IF Elfsborg	2-1	Syrianska FC
13.05.2009	Cup	Syrianska FC	2-1	IF Elfsborg

Limited head to heads .

LEAGUE POSITION - 15th of 16 v 2nd. A win takes Elfs on equal points at the top and it depends on how many they score whether they will be outright leader on goal difference.

HOME TEAM - SYRIANSKA

RECENT HOME FORM - DLWDWDWLWL - all of the positives have come against bottom 8 bar a 3-0 win against 3rd. Losses have come against top side, 5th and 8th and have seen Syrianska score in all of those defeats.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDLWLLLLWLLL - home wins against 11th and 12th have intertwined with the poor recent losing period.

GOAL TRENDS - 70% over 2.5 goals at home.Score 1.7 on average and concede 1.2 on average at home. Quite a low concession rate. The last 10 matches have all been over 2.5 goals. 5 of the last 6 home matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - no draw in 4 at home and 10 overall.

AWAY TEAM - ELFS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLWLDWWW - losses away to 1st, 6th, 10th and 12th so no real pattern to the losses.Wins against 3rd, 4th, 7th, 13th and 16th. 4 of the 5 wins away came without conceding a goal. They did concede against 16th though ( and playing 15th today)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWLDWWWWWWDW - recent draws v 6th at home and 8th away and sole recent loss v 10th ( 1-0 away loss) - recent winning run saw 5 wins at home and 3 away.Against the bottom 4 sides, Elfs have won 4 at home and 2 away out of 6 matches played. 4 scorelines of 2-1, one 3-2 and another 1-0 shows why they have been quoted 1.59 today. Likely to win but likely to concede and have to scrape a 1 goal advantage.

GOAL TRENDS - 40% over 2.5 goals away from home.6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals.4 of last 7 matches clean sheets for elfs.

STREAKS - 9 overall without defeat - 3 match away winning streak - 4 away without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - it seems the 1.59 quote is spot on, it normally signals a hard fought win with one goal deciding the outcome. A 1-2 would be my starting point ( if we believe Elfs will win). A win takes Elfs joint top so good motivation. Over 2.5 goals has a chance based on recent trends ( last 10 Syrianska and 6/8 elfs have been over 2.5 goals) This might be the safer bet as Elfs are likely to have to battle for a win. The overall form of both sides is contrasting. Syrianska's is dotted with L's and Elfs dotted with W's. Teams with the winning habit tend to be good betting propositions.

115pm - West Ham v Leeds - 1.73 home - 1-0 home loss, 1-0 away win and 4-0 away win v Watford for the Hamsters. I have shortlisted this match because home side are newly relegated and have a long Premiership pedigree which will not disappear overnight. The home loss against Cardiff was a sickener - a 90th minute goal.
Leeds lost 3-1 away to Soton, 1-0 at home to Boro and beat Hull 4-1. The loss v Soton could indicate a positive result for Hammers today, and that 1.73 might be value in a possible tight early first half.
130pm - AZ Alkmaar v NEC Nijmegen - 1.51 home
130pm - Norwich v Stoke - 2.66 home - again has the feel of a Championship match about it as Swansea v Wigan did yesterday. And the fact that Norwich are marginal favourites is interesting.

Norwich hosts Premier League football again when Stoke travel to Carrow Road.

Last weekend the Canaries came from behind to draw against Wigan Athletic, while Stoke earned a credible draw with Chelsea.

Stoke have not scored in seven of their last nine Barclays Premier League away matches. Only one of the last 13 match-ups between Norwich and Stoke have finished as an away win.

Not much else from www.premierleague.com

1-1 draw away to Wigan on opening day for Norwich and 0-0 home draw v Chelsea for Stoke. Stoke only won 3 away matches all last season, and against the finalised bottom 4, lost 3 and draw 0-0 against the 4th. Unlikely that Stoke have made significant changes ( remember to look for changes in key positions - goalkeeper ( Given at Villa) and Forwards ( Aguero at City).

This is likely to be a tight Championship type of match, short on spectacle. Interesting to see how Norwich fare at home ( as it was interesting to see Swansea in their first home match). No strong angle for me here as Norwich are an unknown.

130pm - VVV v Ajax - 1.25 away - one of the triumvirate and another, Twente, were superb at eyewatering odds of 2.12 away at Heerenveen.

20.02.2011	D1	AFC Ajax	1-0	VVV Venlo
28.11.2010	D1	VVV Venlo	0-2	AFC Ajax
11.04.2010	D1	AFC Ajax	7-0	VVV Venlo
20.09.2009	D1	VVV Venlo	0-4	AFC Ajax

VVV have not scored against Ajax in their last 4 matches.
4-1 away and 5-1 at home see Ajax in fine fettle post Suarez.
VVV drew 0-0 at home and lost 4-0 away. Ajax lost 3 away last season, against 4th, 7th and 9th. VVV came 2nd bottom last season and lost at home to top 7 conceding 2,2,3,1,5,4,3.
The 1-0 home win in last head to head is the niggle as regards an obvious goals bet here. An Argument can be made for a win to nil this afternoon for Ajax.
2pm - Wolves v Fulham - 2.54 home

23.04.2011	PR	Wolverhampton	1-1	Fulham FC
11.09.2010	PR	Fulham FC	2-1	Wolverhampton
17.04.2010	PR	Fulham FC	0-0	Wolverhampton
20.09.2009	PR	Wolverhampton	2-1	Fulham FC

Wolves have scored first in these matches and that may be an angle in, as might laying them if they score first. In fact, lay the first team to score might offer us an angle in here in what is likely to be a tight match this afternoon.
New manager for Fulham so how valid are the head to heads now with a likely change of tactics, however subtle.
From www.premierleague.com
"

Wolverhampton are bidding for a second successive triumph when they take on Fulham at Molineux.

Mick McCarthy's team saw off Blackburn Rovers away on the opening day but they have won just one of their last five Barclays Premier League home matches.

Fulham, who were victorious in the Europa League in midweek, have won their last two league matches on the road - after going on a run of just one away win in 35."

Wolves team news

Wolves manager Mick McCarthy is poised to name an unchanged team for Sunday's match.

McCarthy has no fresh injury worries to contend with and is set to retain the side that started last weekend's 2-1 win at Blackburn Rovers.

Defender Richard Stearman is fit after picking up back problem against Rovers while winger Michael Kightly is challenging for a place on the bench as he continues his comeback from knee problems.

Midfielder Dave Edwards, who has been sidelined since February by a back injury, and striker Sam Vokes, who damaged his ankle earlier this summer, remain some way from being in contention despite returning to training this week.

Midfielder Adlene Guedioura, meanwhile, has travelled to Qatar for specialist treatment as he continues his recovery from ankle surgery.

Fulham team news

Danny Murphy is expected to shake off a knock to feature in Fulham's Barclays Premier League match at Wolves on Sunday.

The 34-year-old was substituted in Thursday night's Europa League win against Dnipro with a slight groin complaint but is expected to start at Molineux.

Simon Davies (knee) remains a week away from action despite returning to training, while Bjorn Helge Riise (hamstring) is also out."

The bookies and Racing Post point to a tight encounter which was my initial knee jerk reaction. Back 0-0 , abck the draw for trading purposes? Fulham have kept 7 clean sheets in 8 matches under Martin Jol.

215pm - Motherwell v Rangers - 1.75 away

30.04.2011	PR	Motherwell FC	0-5	Glasgow Rangers
12.02.2011	PR	Glasgow Rangers	6-0	Motherwell FC
30.01.2011	LC	Glasgow Rangers	2-1	Motherwell FC
26.12.2010	PR	Motherwell FC	1-4	Glasgow Rangers
16.10.2010	PR	Glasgow Rangers	4-1	Motherwell FC
09.05.2010	PR	Glasgow Rangers	3-3	Motherwell FC

Goals anyone! Wow - 11 goals in 2 matches for Rangers in 2011 against today's opponents. With Celtic ( below) at 1.19 and expecting an easy home time, this becomes another must win for Rangers who are on the back foot courtesy of a careless home draw on the opening day.
3-0 and 1-0 home wins , interspersed with 0-0 and 0-1 away resultshttp://www.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=7312132027572261300, puts Motherwell top of the SPL.They are yet to concede a goal, but by the same token, they are yet to play the Old Firm, and that is the real test.
This explains why Rangers, having scored 11 to no reply in 2 2011 matches against Motherwell, are 1.75 and not even shorter.
Draw, and 2 away wins 0-2 for Rangers sees them back on course. Key players this early on is jelavic and Naismith.
It is difficult to evaluate Motherwell in the context of head to head maulings , against 4 clean sheets this season. Instinct points to them keeping things tight and frustrating Rangers. under 2.5 goal trade initially? ideal reactive trading match as we would want to gauge, by watching, how Rangers get on and how stubborn Motherwell are at the back.
3pm - Celtic v St Johnstone - 1.19 home

12.04.2011	PR	St. Johnstone	0-1	Celtic FC
26.12.2010	PR	Celtic FC	2-0	St. Johnstone
30.10.2010	PR	St. Johnstone	0-3	Celtic FC
27.10.2010	LC	St. Johnstone	2-3	Celtic FC
20.03.2010	PR	Celtic FC	3-0	St. Johnstone
24.01.2010	PR	St. Johnstone	1-4	Celtic FC

Celtic have not conceded in their last 3 meetings with St Johnston and scored 2/3 in last meetings at Celtic.
0-2, 0-1 and then a 5-1 home win sees Celtic ticking along nicely and with Rangers facing frugal Motherwell away today, John Lennon will not want to slip up in an eminently winnable match.
St Johnstone drew 0-0 away at Aberdeen, lost 2-0 at home to Rangers and 1-0 at home to Dunfermline. This should be routine for Celtic and a potential chance to heap misery upon Rangers.
3pm - Middlesbrough v Birmingham - 2.06 home - shortlisted as Brum are the newly relegated side with a manager who knows how to win this league. 2-2 home draw ( unlucky not to win as equaliser was 90th minute), 0-1 and 1-3 away wins for Boro.
Brum lost 2-1 away at Derby and won 1-0 at home to Coventry. I am afraid I have little knowledge of this league and little to work on at the moment. Brum seem to be struggling initially in this league.
330pm - ADO Den Haag v PSV - 1.76 away - amazing that Twente were available to back at over evens yesterday and spanked Heerenveen. Will PSV perform as well at a great price?

05.02.2011	D1	PSV Eindhoven	0-1	ADO Den Haag
29.08.2010	D1	ADO Den Haag	2-2	PSV Eindhoven
06.02.2010	D1	PSV Eindhoven	2-0	ADO Den Haag
08.11.2009	D1	ADO Den Haag	1-5	PSV Eindhoven
05.02.2009	D1	PSV Eindhoven	6-0	ADO Den Haag

92nd minute ADO winner in last head to head, and the 2-2 came about courtesy of an 81st minute ADO goal.
0-0 home draw and 4-2 away loss ( they were 4-0 down) for ADo this season.
3-1 away loss v AZ and 1-0 home win v Waalwijk less than convincing for PSV this season so far.
Against top 6 at home last season, WLDLLL -draw was v PSV and win was v Ajax. All matches at home to top 6 last season over 2.5 goals bar a 0-2 loss v AZ.
Losses away v 2nd , 10th and 13th last season for PSV. Their results this season suggest they may have lost key personnel in the transfer season? I am afraid I cannot confirm this.
330pm - AIK v Trelleborgs - 1.55 home
HEAD TO HEADS

26.06.2011	D1	Trelleborgs FF	1-2	AIK Fotboll
11.09.2010	D1	Trelleborgs FF	4-1	AIK Fotboll
09.05.2010	D1	AIK Fotboll	1-0	Trelleborgs FF
29.08.2009	D1	AIK Fotboll	1-0	Trelleborgs FF
05.05.2009	D1	Trelleborgs FF	1-0	AIK Fotboll

What of this 4-1 win for Trelleborgs?

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 12th

HOME TEAM - AIK

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLWWWWL - solid home form.Losses against 2nd and 10th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLWWWWWWLLW - not a draw in sight recently. Losses recently in last 3 matches against 2nd and 8th.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs/unders. 60% clean sheets in home matches. Only 1 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals BUT 7 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. Wins at home against 7th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 14th, 16th have all come courtesy of a clean sheet for AIK

STREAKS - 10 at home without a draw, 18 overall without a draw - talk about standout stats.

AWAY TEAM - TRELLEBORGS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDWDLLLLL - losses away to 1st, 4th , 6th and 7th have seen Trelleborg concede 7-4-3-4- - big losses. Wins against 10th and 11th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLLLLWWLLWL - again draws sparce overall. Last 3 wins have come at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 70% over 2.5 goals away from home courtesy of a shocking 2.7 goal concession rate on average away. 9 of last 11 matches over 2.5 goals - exceptions both 2-0 home wins. Trelleborg have scored in all bar 2 matches this season.

STREAKS - 5 away without a draw. No win in 6 away, 12 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - as my showbiz pal Roy Walker says " say what you see" and I see the lack of a draw between these 2 as an obvious starting point, although how much value the draw price is to layers is another story.
This is good winning home form versus 5 match away losing streak. Trelleborg really have been tonked against top 7 away - is this coincidence or just an inability to mix it against the top teams away. If this is the latter, then surely over 2.5 ( or even over 3.5 goals should be a good call) Further confidence added by the fact Trelleborg have scored in all bar 2 matches this season.

330pm - Helsingborgs v Halmstads - 1.27 home
HEAD TO HEADS

27.06.2011	D1	Halmstads BK	1-2	Helsingborgs IF
26.02.2011	CF	Halmstads BK	0-0	Helsingborgs IF
31.10.2010	D1	Halmstads BK	2-4	Helsingborgs IF
22.05.2010	D1	Helsingborgs IF	2-1	Halmstads BK
30.01.2010	CF	Helsingborgs IF	2-2	Halmstads BK
19.09.2009	D1	Halmstads BK	2-1	Helsingborgs IF

Over 2.5 goals anyone? Sole win for halmstads in head to heads back in September 2009.Last head to head should have seen a 0-2 win as Halms scored in 93rd minute.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 16th

HOME TEAM - HELSINGSBORG

RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWWDWWDW - unbeaten at home - draws against 4th, 5th and 9th all score draws and obviously Helsing have scored in all home matches this season.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDWWDWWDWWW - unbeaten recent form too -

GOAL TRENDS - last 6 matches all over 2.5 goals and 8 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals with 1-1 exception. 50/50 overs/unders at home.50% clean sheets at home and scored in all home matches.

STREAKS - 10 at home without defeat, 13 overall without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - HALMSTAD

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLDLLLL - draw was 0-0 against 2nd bottom. 7 of 9 losses away over 2.5 goals , the other 2 were 2-0 losses.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDDLLLLLLLWL - yes a win! 5-4 home win against 3rd bottom. Last 8 matches prior to last match over 2.5 goals.

GOAL TRENDS - 70% over 2.5 goals away from home. 8 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. Concede an average 2.4 away from home. 90% of Halmstad's points are gotten at home.

STREAKS - 10 away without a win, 9 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the odds look well justified today. And 2.5 goals looks a goer based on recent form for both sides.

4pm - Bolton v Man City - 1.82 away

22.05.2011	PR	Bolton Wanderers	0-2	Manchester City
04.12.2010	PR	Manchester City	1-0	Bolton Wanderers
09.02.2010	PR	Manchester City	2-0	Bolton Wanderers
12.12.2009	PR	Bolton Wanderers	3-3	Manchester City
24.05.2009	PR	Manchester City	1-0	Bolton Wanderers

Remember we are in a transfer window and , inparticular with City, there have been significant personnel changes.
From www.premierleague.com, my only source until the form fleshes out
"

Bolton entertain Manchester City looking to build on an impressive start to the campaign.

The Trotters ran out 4-0 winners away to the league's newcomers QPR but face a much sterner test in mega-rich City.

City also had a 4-0 success over new boys Swansea but have a poor record at the Reebok Stadium, winning just one out of their last six league visits."

Bolton team news

Bolton expect to have new signing Tuncay Sanli available.

The Turkey international, who has joined on a season-long loan from Wolfsburg, has been in Germany sorting out the paperwork on his work permit but it is expected to be processed in time.

Midfielder Ricardo Gardner will have a fitness test on Saturday on a groin injury.

Man City team news

Manchester City striker Carlos Tevez could be set to make his first appearance of the season.

Although the 27-year-old handed in a transfer request this summer, a move is yet to materialise and after returning to training with the Blues last week, he will be considered for the match.

Roberto Mancini must also decide whether or not to hand a first start to Sergio Aguero following his sensational two-goal debut as a substitute against Swansea on Monday, while midfielder Nigel de Jong will be assessed after picking up a foot injury.

squads

Bolton Wanderers: Jaaskelainen, Knight, Cahill, Robinson, Steinsson, Petrov, Reo-Coker, Pratley, Eagles, M Davies, Muamba, K Davies, Klasnic, Bogdan, Alonso, Wheater, Blake, Tuncay.

Manchester City: Hart, Pantilimon, Taylor, Richards, Zabaleta, Savic, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Kolarov, Boyata, Johnson, Barry, De Jong, Milner, Silva, Toure, Weiss, Wright-Phillips, Balotelli, Dzeko, Aguero, Tevez."

Team news important - as was seen yesterday with Peter Odimwegie playing eventually for WBA and Van Persie returning for Arsenal, it can change decision making. So do factor in team news at the earliest time you can get it. Today for instance will see the dynamic of the match change if Aguero is selected to start along with Tevez for instance.

5 consecutive clean sheets for Joe Hart is a solid defensive display.I would be happier making any decision based upon team news especially as regards man City.

4pm - Legia Warsaw v Slask Wroclaw - 1.98 home - 2 and 3 matches played in the league. It is at soccerstats.com so will be a featured league for me this season A bit early in the season just yet.

4pm - Paris St-G v Valenciennes - 1.51 home - 18th v 19th in the league, but let's not get ahead of ourselves - both have played 2 matches.

30.04.2011	D1	Paris St. Germain	3-1	Valenciennes FC
11.12.2010	D1	Valenciennes FC	1-2	Paris St. Germain
10.11.2010	LC	Valenciennes FC	1-3	Paris St. Germain
05.05.2010	D1	Paris St. Germain	2-2	Valenciennes FC
22.08.2009	D1	Valenciennes FC	2-3	Paris St. Germain
23.05.2009	D1	Valenciennes FC	2-1	Paris St. Germain

All matches have been over 2.5 goals when they have met since 2009. PSG unbeaten in 2 meetings 2010 and 2011.
0-1 home loss and 1-1 away draw for PSG so far and 1-0 away loss and 0-0 home draw for Valenciennes so far.
Only 2 losses at home last season helped PSG secure 4th place .Valenciennes only won 2 matches away last season against 3rd bottom and bottom side. 8 home draws for PSG and 9 away draws for Valenciennes might hint at both teams scoring?
Head to heads as I say point to goals but 2 matches so far this season see few goals for both sides. Will PSG maintain strong home form of last season?
Again, France will be a featured league a little later in the season when there is more form and will be properly researched.
5pm - Fiorentina v Cittadella - 1.3 home - SERIA A v SERIA B in the Italian Cup and little to go on bar the league differences.
5pm - Shakhtar v Illychivets - 1.13 home

01.04.2011	D1	Illichivets	1-3	Shakhtar Donetsk
29.08.2010	D1	Shakhtar Donetsk	1-0	Illichivets
12.12.2009	D1	Shakhtar Donetsk	2-1	Illichivets
25.07.2009	D1	Illichivets	0-2	Shakhtar Donetsk
02.03.2009	D1	Illichivets	1-2	Shakhtar Donetsk

As has been amply proved this week ( bar the odd exception of Limerick), sub 1.20 usually indicates goals and a potential win to nil. Clean sweep for Shaktar in head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 12th after 6 matches.

HOME TEAM - SHAKTAR

RECENT HOME FORM - WWW - 4-0, 2-1, 2-0 against 16th, 13th, 8th. - only 1 loss in last 45 home matches includes 3 draws!

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWW - scoring 4-2-2-1-2-3 - inference that Shaktar must score 2 to win ( thus bringing in the over 2.5 goals bet?)

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins at home, 2 clean sheets, 2.67 scored on average at home and 0.33 conceded. Don't get carried away - they look impressive but only 3 matches!

STREAKS - 4 at home without a loss, 8 overall without a loss in all competitions.

AWAY TEAM - ILLICHEVETS

RECENT AWAY FORM - DL - draw was 0-0 v 3rd

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLLLD - win v 13th a 1-0, and draws v 3rd and 14th

GOAL TRENDS - pointless with only 2 matches played.

STREAKS - 5 overall without a win, 3 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Shaktar have only lost 1 and drawn 3 in their last 45 matches at home and thus it makes sense to have them on our side. Far too early in the season for any trends . Shaktar this season have won only after scoring 2 or more which brings over 2.5 goals ( and judging by the 1.13 quote, over 3.5/4.5) into play.

6pm - Litex Lovech v Svetkavitsa - 1.13 home - Bulgarian top flight and only 2 games gone. Go with the odds? Svet have yet to score in 2 losses 1-0 and 3-0 and Litex have a 2-1 home win ( coming from behind) and a 1-1 away draw ( courtesy of a Litex 89th minute penalty!!!)
Nothing for me to go on really.

630pm - Galway Utd v Shamrock Rovers - 1.09 away
HEAD TO HEADS

17.06.2011	PR	Shamrock Rovers	4-0	Galway United
29.04.2011	PR	Galway United	0-1	Shamrock Rovers
24.09.2010	PR	Shamrock Rovers	3-0	Galway United
17.09.2010	Cup	Shamrock Rovers	6-0	Galway United
18.07.2010	PR	Galway United	0-1	Shamrock Rovers
07.05.2010	PR	Shamrock Rovers	2-0	Galway United

Clean sweep for Shamrock Rovers.

LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 3rd in a league of 10 and as we saw with Zurich, these small leagues can be difficult. The Limerick match ( 1.08 and drew 1-1 recently) also reminds us that Irish Football is of a really poor standard.

HOME TEAM - GALWAY

RECENT HOME FORM - 11 match losing streak.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - 20 match losing streak.

GOAL TRENDS - 61.5% over 2.5 goals at home.Score 0.38 and concede 2.76 at home. 5 won and 36 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 20 match losing streak, no goal scored in last 5 matches,

AWAY TEAM - SHAMROCK

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWDWDDLWLLWW - last 4 matches have seen all 1-0 results which might hint at a throwaway lay of Shamrock at such short odds.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWDWDLWLWWW - 4 wins in last 5 includes a 6-0 home win over UCD which put to bed the recent 1-0 results.

GOAL TRENDS - 15.4% over 2.5 goals away from home

STREAKS - 6 without a draw away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 1.09 signals a complete drubbing and likely win to nil comfortably for Shamrock. I am not taken by Irish football myself, but Galway seem to be opposable this season. 1.09 layable in the hope that Shamrock replicate recent run of 1-0's away and that amazing 15.4% over 2.5 goals stat signals a struggle today.

505 NEWTON ABBOTT

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Johns Spirit, 7/1 Hold The Fort, 7/1 Zagreb Express, 8/1 Celtic George, 10/1 Busby Berkeley, 10/1 Magic In Motion, 12/1 Billy Cuckoo, 16/1 Romeo Americo, 20/1 Kings Heroine, 25/1 Shootemup, 33/1 Darius Khan, 33/1 Little Wadham.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hold The Fort should be able to build on his quite promising debut and Zagreb Express is an interesting newcomer for a stable that does well in bumpers but JOHNS SPIRIT looks the one to beat after his near-miss at Towcester. [Chris Wilson]

Huge price gapper here in this bumper , 6/4 - - -5/1 in the live betting and one of 5 under 16/1 so Johns Spirit interesting.

240 DEAUVILLE - no betting forecast up so I will work from the Betfair market which sees a now 7 horse race with Frederick Engels and Dabirism market leaders. I like both as one is an O'Brien horse and the other has Dettori onboard. Both around 1.35 to place in a 7 horse race for 3 places

SHORTLIST