back-lay-trade-horses-football: 24/8

Very tough day today and speculation on team news the key in the Carling Cup. 2nd leg Champions League . Liverpool look most reliable this evening in the Carling Cup as I am taken with the racing Post argument for strength in depth. Dangerous, as we saw yesterday, to go with Carling Cup, but the hope is the 2nd side for Liverpool, with a smattering of first team players, is enough to see off struggling Exeter. Elsewhere Udinese and Arsenal's match surely has a great chance of finishing under 2.5 goals ( at least from a trading rather than outright betting angle.

*****ONE A DAY -745pm - Exeter v Liverpool - back Liverpool in the match odds at 1.37 *****

Villa won, Villareal won, and nice to see Eshoog at 9/2 win.

4pm - Roudnice v FK Jablonec - 1.36 away - Division 3 v top flight in the Czech Cup. Jablonec's last 2 home league meetings have seen them score 4 and 5 to no reply. Ominous for Roudnice if Jab field a full squad.
5pm - Notodden v Mandalskameratene - 1.18 home - Norwegian Division 3 and Sundsvall the other day indicates these leagues may not be reliable. looks goalladen if we base it on head to heads - 6-4-7 in head to heads albeit from 2007. Notodden won 5- 0 in their last home match and mandal's last 9 matches have all been over 2.5 goals with total goals 3-3-3-3-6-7-4-5-3 - consistently 3 goals or more. 9 of Mandal's last 10 matches over 2.5 goals, the exception was 2-0 .
1st v 4th, 43 points v 26 points so Notodden clearly dominant in this league.
11 of Notodden's last 12 matches have been over 2.5 goals at home - goal totals of 7-7-3-1-6-6-3-6-6-3-4-5 - a pity this is likely to be an illiquid game. 1.18 as you know signals a win by 3/4 for the home side but Mandal might score.
745pm - Benfica v Twente - 1.53 home - with these 2nd leg matches I feel it is important to start with the minimum required for each team. Well it is advantage Benfica with 2 away goals in a 2-2 home match where I signalled the potential for goals. Benfica need a 0-0 to go through. In fact any draw and they are through. Twente need a 0-1 to go through on aggregate.
With this new dynamic it will be difficult to predict how the managers will approach this match.
These are 2 teams who do not like losing . Benfica have only lost 1 in their last 12, and Twente lost 2 in their last 12.
Remember a draw will suite Benfica . A win will put Twente through.
745pm - Exeter v Liverpool - 1.35 home - Carling Cup for King Kenny and, as with Villa yesterday, some teams will labour with team changes. Quite simply this is all about the Liverpool personnel this evening - a first team and we can steam in. Far too early for me to comment at 930am. Exeter have lost their last 2 league encounters at home and have not won yet in League 1. A welcome distraction or a need to address this losing streak in the more important league.
Racing Post make an interesting point that with no European Football this term, any cup run will be favourable to none. The Racing Post also point to strength in depth at Liverpool as this is unlikely to be the First team out this evening, but Ngog and Cole and players of that ilk make for a strong looking Reds Reserves,
745pm - Plzen v FC Copenhagen - 2.9 away - a 1-3 deficit for Copenhagen, one of my favourite domestic teams for trading, is a mountain to climb - the first leg was a lesson in what can happen when 2 sides from different leagues who have never met before play each other. And for punters Plzen were automatically written off.
0-0, 0-2 loss enough for Plzen to go through on the away goals rule. Copenhagen will fail if they draw 3-3 , so they must score 4 to go through(even if allowing Plzen to score 1)
can we infer that Plzen are good defensively if they kept Copenhagen to one goal in the first leg? COpenhagen have reached the last 16 in recent years and to go out so early is a bitter blow for confidence and coffers! We can expect a full blown Copenhagen assault but we, as punters, still remain in the dark as far as the capabilities of Plzen are concerned.
Speculators will be looking at goals potential here if Copenhagen click.
745pm - Udinese v Arsenal - 2.44 home - Arsenal did what was necessary in the first leg, scored without conceding. Udinese looked sharp in attack and their centre forward ( top scorer in Seria a last 2 seasons) was very threatening. Arsenal have their work cut out this evening . They need a 0-0 minimum to progress. Udinese need a single goal to gain parity. Likely this will be a tight encounter early on as Udinese dare not concede an away goal first.
Nasri joined Man City who keep collecting players without giving a thought as to how to accomodate them into an XI.a big blow.
745pm -West Ham v Aldershot - 1.36 home - Hammers at home look good. And although they threw away 3 points against Leeds, they did score first. Again, it is down to team news. allardyce has sights on a return to the Premiership above a Mickey Mouse Cup. Priorities might see wholesale changes.
8pm - Bolton v Macclesfield - 1.36 home - as ever team news will justify support or not. Does Owen Coyle have a history of interest in the Carling cup? Whatever Bolton side he chooses you know they will be tough to beat at home. Motivation the only question
8pm - Everton v Sheff Utd - 1.45 home - Everton's Cahill should have scored 2 or more at the weekend. It was the first game of the season for Everton, and I ask you, will the Everton faithful tolerate another home defeat on the trot, regardless of what competition this is? Psychologically therefore, this could be argued to be a must win for Everton?Don't discount extra time though, that is the worry!
3 of Everton's last 4 scorelines ( including pre season) have been 1-0 scorelines and all losses. Concerns upfront for a side with no new signings . Sheff Utd likely to be pains in the arses this evening.WWWD in League 1 for Utd signals they are in reasonable form.

250 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Cheherazad, 13/8 Green Howard, 9/2 Strong Man, 25/1 Kyllachykov, 33/1 Diumara, 33/1 Munaa´s Dream, 50/1 Indigo Sands, 50/1 Stella Marris, 50/1 Tancred Spirit, 100/1 Govenor Eliott.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The trip doesn't look right for either CHEHERAZAD or Green Howard but that's not likely to matter too much in this company and the filly just edges it.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

3 under 25/1 albeit in a maiden -Strong Man the each way value quite obviously and Green Howard has become the market leader as I write.

450 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Silver Tigress, 5/1 Al Furat, 5/1 Black Pond, 7/1 Lady Intrigue, 8/1 Kian´s Delight, 10/1 Hernando Torres, 12/1 Smart Step, 14/1 Downtown Boy, 20/1 Shirls Son Sam, 25/1 Srimenanti.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SILVER TIGRESS won at Musselburgh in the style of an improving filly and has every chance of following up against rivals with questions to answer.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Class 6 0.60 handicap price gappers like Silver tend to run into a place. These price gappers can run up a sequence. I have seen it plenty of times before. But then on the other hand, dare we trust our hard earned on such lowly rated horses whose heights of ambition includes being a donkey at Blackpool beach.

230 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Cavaleiro, 4/1 Kings Decree, 7/1 Wayne Manor, 12/1 Methaen, 20/1 Hint Of Mint, 25/1 April Ciel, 33/1 Bathwick Street, 33/1 Dont Take Me Alive, 33/1 Miss Granger, 40/1 Midnight Sequel, 50/1 Cash Injection, 100/1 Brown Eyed Lass.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAVALEIRO probably has a fine opportunity and that is judged on all three of his performances, not just the best. Most of the rest may be very lightly raced and therefore open to improvement, but on current evidence Kings Decree looks clearly the chief threat.[Richard Austen]

A 2 year old maiden but form of 332 for cavaleiro means he looks reliable enough for the place. 3 under 20/1 makes Kings Decree the obvious alternative with 10/1 Don't take me alive a possible monster each way gamble ( 33/1 in the betting forecast)

330 CHEPSTOW

ETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Sannibel, 6/4 Whitecrest, 4/1 Ginzan, 25/1 Griffin Point, 33/1 Coalburn.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SANNIBEL and Whitecrest have the best form, with the Sannibel's best figure recorded on Polytrack last time but that was only her second start, whereas Whitecrest has had 15.[Richard Austen]

Likely a 3 horse race for 2 places.

455 KILLARNEY

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Purple, 11/4 Madhmoonah, 4/1 French Quebec, 8/1 Lady Geronimo, 12/1 Sandy Wells, 14/1 Jackemil, 16/1 Colla Pier, 16/1 Laura´s Delight, 20/1 Crazylittlething, 33/1 Foreign Princess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market suggested that better was expected from PURPLE on her debut at the Curragh earlier this month and with the experience under her belt, she could well belatedly deliver on those expectations in this. Madhmoonah is also open to plenty of improvement and rates as her main danger. [Kevin Blake]

4 under 16/1 here and Purple represents Aidan O'Brien.

Madhmoonah is the Weld/Smullen horse at better odds.

Small fields at a jumps course in Worcester temper enthusiasm there.

SHORTLIST

The football is difficult as it is largely conjecture with team selection in the Carling Cup. As was seen with Villa yesterday, they took a while to score.

4pm - Roudnice v FK Jablonec - 1.36 away - Jablonec have scored 4 and 5 to no reply recently and this is a big gap in leagues in the Czech Cup. We are betting blind really here because I do not know if Jablonec will field a weakened side, or whether Roudnice's home ground has certain peculiarities. A very illiquid market as quite obviously the Czech Cup is not high on the checklist for Betfairians today

5pm - Notodden v Mandalskameratene - 1.18 home - likely to suffer from a lack of interest amongst market makers , a pity as an argument could be made for goals.