back-lay-trade-horses-football: 15/8

Man City should win and to nil and I would speculate a 2-0, 3-0 possible scoreline but they are really facing an unknown for first match of the season. A strong argument can be made on last season ending home form and logically of course with team personnel.

Signor Sassi would be my horse to take from today. I do hope City show that ruthless streak today and I guess 1-1 would be the killer scoreline. 5 clean sheets from last 6 home matches, only 2 losses at home last season and a Swansea side losing 7 out of 10 away matches against top 11 in Championship last season. No Tevez a slight concern but they should prevail eventually.

***** 8pm - MAN CITY V SWANSEA - BACK MAN CITY IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.3*****

A missed penalty by Zenit scuppered the win - how frustrating! These professionals should not be missing penalties! Man Utd won and odemwingie did not play, and it showed as the West Brom goal was a keeper error.

430pm - FC Inter v IFK Mariehamn - 1.44 home
HEAD TO HEADS

13.06.2011	D1	Inter Turku	2-0	IFK Mariehamn
04.02.2011	LC	Inter Turku	1-0	IFK Mariehamn
18.07.2010	D1	IFK Mariehamn	3-0	Inter Turku
10.06.2010	Cup	IFK Mariehamn	2-1	Inter Turku
19.04.2010	D1	Inter Turku	1-1	IFK Mariehamn
20.03.2010	LC	Inter Turku	2-1	IFK Mariehamn

Inter are unbeaten at home but struggle away. 1-1 , 1-0 , 2-0 so relatively tight. Do not concede many at home.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 7th - top team are 12 points ahead so Inter Turko seem to be playing for 2nd place only.

HOME TEAM - INTER TURKO

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWWWDWWW - solid at home. Draws against 8th and 10th -fight backs in both draws including last one - a 4-4 draw which saw Inter 1-2 and 1-3 down

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWDWLWDWWL - losses recently against 4th, 1st and 6th with draws against 10th and 11th -goal laden 4-4 and 3-3 results. Wins recently against 3rd,5th,7th,8th,9th,12th

GOAL TRENDS - 8 wins, 2 draws, 5 clean sheets - 1.89 scored 2 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 14 home matches in all competitions without losing.

AWAY TEAM - MARIEHAMN

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLLLLDLLL - contrasting away form. Wins against 6th and 8th away started the away league form well. Draw was against bottom side and bottom side scored equaliser in 90th minute. Losses v 1st, 2nd , 3rd,4th , 9th 10th, 11th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWDDWLDLLL - 2 wins recently against 5th and 6th. Losses recently v 1st, 4th, 9th, 11th. All losses saw mariehamn unable to score.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 7 losses, 1 draw , 2 clean sheets, 0.7 scored 1.5 conceded away from home.

STREAKS - 8 away games without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - contrasting home and away fortunes it would seem. Potential for a tight match if we investigate Mariehamn's last few matches.
Loss v league leaders was 1-0 with an 81st minute goal. Loss v VPS was 1-0 with a 70th minute goal. Loss v Jaro was 4-0 with goals in the 83rd minute and 2 in the 90th minute. Add to this recent tight matches ( do not be swayed by 4-0) with tight head to heads AT INTER and wins for Mariehamn when they are at home, and this could be 1-0 to Inter until late on. There may be an expectation for a last 15-20 minute collapse from Mariehamn. As a reactive trader, if it is tight coming to the 70th minute, I would be ready to oppose Mariehamn.

7pm - NEC Nijmegen v Excelsior - 1.49 home - 2-2 draw for Nijmegen and very lucky as it was 2-0 down until 83rd minute. Excelsior lost 0-2 at home v Feyenoord with 2nd goal an own goal. 11th v 16th from last year. NEC lost only against 1st, 2nd and 4th at home last year - strong home form. Excelsior lost 10 and drew 1 against top 11 away last season.

13.02.2011	D1	NEC Nijmegen	2-0	SBV Excelsior
20.08.2010	D1	SBV Excelsior	4-2	NEC Nijmegen
28.10.2009	Cup	NEC Nijmegen	2-1 AET	SBV Excelsior

Head to heads a little inconclusive.

8pm - Man City v Swansea - 1.3 home. Will Swansea do a QPR or a Norwich city? Will we be seeing totally naive defending at this level from Swansea? City at home last year were only beaten by Arsenal and Everton. They finished the season at home unbeaten in 10 matches and with a 5 match winning streak.
5 clean sheets in last 6 matches should strengthen confidence in backing them at 1.3.
Swansea away lost 7 matches and won 3 against top 11 sides last year. I would equate top of Championship roughly with bottom of premiership. 2 of the wins were 1-0.
QPR showed how shockingly out of depth teams could get with a simple step up to this far better league.
Complacency would seem to be the only concern as regards a City win.
From www.premierleague.com

Argentina striker Carlos Tevez will sit out Manchester City's opening match of the Barclays Premier League season against Swansea on Monday.

The Blues skipper only returned to training this week and, with his future still uncertain, manager Roberto Mancini does not feel it is worth pushing the 27-year-old into the fray.

Tevez's international colleague Sergio Aguero may be involved for the first time since his club-record £38m move from Atletico Madrid, although Mancini reckons he could contribute only 45 minutes at best.

Swansea team news

Captain Garry Monk is a major doubt for Swansea's Barclays Premier League opener at Manchester City on Monday.

The defender, who signed a new three-year contract earlier this week, is struggling with a foot injury and may have to wait for the home clash with Wigan to make his first appearance of the campaign.

Goalkeeper Michel Vorm comes straight into the squad after completing his move from FC Utrecht and will battle fellow new signing Jose Moreira for the starting berth. Danny Graham, Leroy Lita, Wayne Routledge and Steven Caulker are also in line to make their debuts at Etihad Stadium.

squads

Manchester City: Hart, Pantilimon, Taylor, Richards, Zabaleta, Savic, Kompany, Lescott, Clichy, Kolarov, Boyata, Johnson, Barry, De Jong, Milner, Silva, Toure, Weiss, Wright-Phillips, Balotelli, Dzeko, Aguero.

Swansea City: Vorm, Williams, Taylor, Caulker, Tate, Bodde, Britton, Orlandi, Beattie, Graham, Sinclair, Dyer, Cornell, Dobbie, Routledge, Monk, Cotterill, Lita, Moore, MacDonald, Moreira, Rangel, Harley, Agustien, Butler.

An argument can be made for a potential City win to nil.

430 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 You´ve Been Mowed, 7/1 Dunseverick, 9/1 Ssafa, 10/1 Ferruccio, 10/1 Lockantanks, 12/1 Cool Hand Jake, 14/1 Striding Edge, 14/1 Tilsworth Glenboy, 16/1 Defector, 20/1 Catchanova, 25/1 Exchange, 25/1 Rock Anthem, 33/1 Tuxedo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dunseverivk looks open to a fair amount of progress but YOU'VE BEEN MOWED is the one that stands out. She is rated 82 on turf following her recent Epsom win but competes off her AW mark off 65 today and doesn't appear to have a huge amount of competition for the early lead. [Chris Wilson]

Big price gapper here but out to 4/1 in the live betting market. Can be perceived as value if the betting forecaster was accurate in his assessment.

730 ROSCOMMON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Devil´s Elbow, 4/1 Quarton, 13/2 Knockcroghery, 12/1 Rodriguez, 14/1 Palio Square, 14/1 Ridayef, 20/1 Franziskaner, 25/1 Arthur´s Gem, 66/1 Church Gallery.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DEVIL'S ELBOW stands out clearly and should win with a bit to spare, particularly with doubts about the form of Quarton. The Ted Walsh-trained runner has developed into quite a nice hurdler already and connections might have expected a tougher contest. [Johnny Ward]

Price gapper in a 9 runner hurdle. Need to look at the market nearer the off.

610 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Signor Sassi, 8/1 Corn Rigs, 8/1 Eightfold, 8/1 La Bocca, 10/1 Shamahan, 10/1 Star Kingdom, 12/1 Dana´s Present, 20/1 Amphora, 33/1 Notnowstanley, 33/1 You Got The Love, 50/1 Romany Spirit, 66/1 Kinglami, 66/1 Trisha´s Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A couple of debutante fillies to keep an eye on in Corn Rigs and La Boca, but SIGNOR SASSI is likely to be a tough nut to crack after going close on his Newmarket debut last month.[Adrian Cook]

I would normally like to leave a one time outer in a maiden alone, but Signor Sassi was a beaten favourite, beaten only a head into 2nd place. 4/7 - - - 7/1 price gap currently.

740 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Eastern Breeze, 4/1 Russian Affair, 5/1 Ayaarah, 33/1 Tetbury Lass, 33/1 Teutonic Knight, 100/1 Lechlade Lass.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No strength in depth and an obvious opportunity for EASTERN BREEZE to open her account. Russian Affair and Ayaarah can follow her home.[Adrian Cook]

3 under 50/1 here and now 1/4 this godolphin favourite under Dettori.

Value in determining which of Russian Affair or Ayaarah will place 2nd.

520 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dannios, 11/2 Wings Of Apollo, 13/2 Derby Desire, 13/2 Norcroft, 16/1 Kathindi, 20/1 Littlepromisedland, 25/1 Finnegans Rainbow.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dannios, for all that he carries a big weight under a penalty, may well be capable of following up last week's comfortable C&D success, but he has been fresh for both 2011 wins and it remains to be seen whether this race comes too soon. A sound alternative is SEE THE STORM who was disappointing over 7f here last Wednesday but has two pieces of strong recent form at this sort of trip.[Steve Boow]

8 runner, 3 places and a price gapper to boot, albeit in this class 6 apprentice handicap.

SHORTLIST