***** 310 HAYDOCK - BACK HUNTER FORWARD IN THE PLACE ONLY MARKET - PERHAPS USE BETFAIR SP AS THE MARKET IS ILLIQUID AT PRESENT - EXPECT 1.2 OR HIGHER*****
Job done with Real and Ruby Night. I was really happy with the Singapore league match, swerving a 1.41 shot for the outsider who won 2-0!
1pm - Albirex Niigata (S) v Tanjong Pagar Utd - 1.15 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 19.07.2011 | LC | Tanjong Pagar Utd | 1-3 | Albirex Niigata (S) | |
| 06.06.2011 | D1 | Tanjong Pagar Utd | 1-2 | Albirex Niigata (S) | |
| 16.02.2011 | D1 | Albirex Niigata (S) | 5-0 | Tanjong Pagar Utd |
comfortable enough position in head to heads.
730pm - Crvena Zvezda v Ventspils - 1.28 home - 1-2 to Crvena and a 93rd minute 2nd goal put a gloss on the scoreline. 0-0 will see Crvena through. 0-1 will see Crvena through on away goals.
730pm - Fulham v RNK Split - 1.23 home - 0-0 from the first leg and it is advantage to Split as they did not concede an away goal. Bookies expect the Premier League side to do the business.
0-1 to Split will see them through. 1-0 to Fulham will see them through.
745pm - Hearts v Paks - 1.45 home - 1-1 from the first leg and Advantage Hearts with their penalty. They only need a 0-0 minimum to progress with home advantage. I suspect this will be a tight match. 2nd leg and progression for Hearts a real possibility as long as they do not lose by one goal without scoring themselves.
805pm - Austria Vienna v Olimpija - 1.48 home - Europa League and 1-1 from the first leg again puts it in Austria Vienna's favour. Carbon copy of Hearts match above. To recap
minimum scorelines to go through for Vienna is 0-0, 1-0 , minimum for Olimpija is 0-1
11pm - Argentina U20 v North Korea U20 - 1.3 home - 1-0 back in 2007 and remember with these U20 World Cups a contrary view could pay. The Koreans have a reputation for enthusiasm, fitness and defensive apability, so if the Argies are to win, I suspect it might replicate the 1-0 of previous matches. But head to heads are so long agon we cannot be that confident. Both teams were 0-0 v England. Against Mexico, Argentina won 1-0 and Mexico beat Korea 3-0. Is this collateral form to be taken on trust? The Mexico scoreline was 1-0 at halftime. 2-0 by 55 minutes and the 3rd goal was a 94th minute goal. The first goal too was an own goal so 3-0 is a little fortunate and I may stand by my initial prognosis for a tight match.
1am - Sao Paulo v Bahia - 1.52 home - available on www.soccerstats.com so worth investigating.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 08.10.2003 | D1 | Bahia/BA | 3-0 | São Paulo/SP | |
| 08.06.2003 | D1 | São Paulo/SP | 2-2 | Bahia/BA |
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ermyntrude, 7/2 Eastern Gift, 5/1 Mighty Mambo, 13/2 Polly Holder, 13/2 Strike Force, 7/1 Megalala, 8/1 Humor Me Rene, 33/1 Corlough Mountain.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ERMYNTRUDE (nap) pulled clear of the third when going very close at Epsom returned to turf last Thursday and is 2lb ahead of the handicapper turned out before her new mark kicks in. Her appeal is cemented by the fact she was a course winner last August and goes well for female riders. Strike Force and Eastern Gift have gone well in this contest in the past.[Steve Boow]
5 remain in the field which may point to adverse weather/ground? There are still 3 places on offer and Corlough Mountain remains ( the original outsider) which should make it a choice between the other 3 for 3 places?
550 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Miss Lahar, 4/1 Meloneras, 14/1 Brilliant Crystal, 20/1 Empressive, 33/1 Brown Eyed Lass, 33/1 Imperial Weapon.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MISS LAHAR stands out on form and is hard to oppose, despite slight misgivings. Meloneras is the one most likely to take advantage if Mick Channon's filly fluffs her lines.[Frank Carter]
A 2 year old favourite with a modicum of form. A 2 horse race with the 2 under double figure odds? Surely then Meloneras is the value place only alternative.
805 CHEPSTOW
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Dreams Of Dawn, 6/4 Lady Bayside, 7/2 Red Marling, 25/1 Orpen´arry, 50/1 Poyle Todream, 100/1 Bawdsey Bank, 100/1 Fleetwood Daughter, 100/1 Greyemkay, 100/1 Millers Dhustone.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lady Bayside is expected to confirm recent course form with Red Marling and rates a big threat to DREAMS OF DAWN, who is given another chance largely on the strength of his debut effort at Newbury.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 under 25/1 in this 3 year old maiden.
745 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Fire Fighter, 11/4 Kadouchski, 14/1 Whitcombe Spirit.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tactics will play a part but FIRE FIGHTER is the one going forwards and it will be a surprise if he is beaten.[Stuart Redding]
2 under 14/1 here -will they dominate in another excellent probability race?
310 HAYDOCK
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hunter Forward, 5/1 Pivot Bridge, 13/2 Rockweiller, 8/1 Kyle Of Bute, 8/1 Reset To Fit, 10/1 Escape Artist, 12/1 Pinotage, 14/1 Forks, 33/1 Brouhaha, 33/1 Strong Knight.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive one here is HUNTER FORWARD (nap), who created a good impression on her first run for Luca Cumani over 1m1f and she'll be hard to beat under her penalty (due to go up 4lb in future), especially if settling better over this longer trip. Pivot Bridge is well worth a try over this trip and looks the chief threat. [Richard Young]
Very tempting here - a price gapper on a potential winning run in a handicap, turned out quickly before the penalty from the handicapper comes into effect. Fallon in the saddle too is a plus.
8/11 - - - -6/1 and really hardened in the betting.
545 LEOPARDSTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Learn, 5/1 Miss Dylan, 6/1 Fastidious, 8/1 Akeed Mofeed, 9/1 Daddy Longlegs, 14/1 Akeed Wafi, 14/1 Requisition, 16/1 Strada Colorato, 25/1 Stagecoach, 33/1 Flashy Falcon, 33/1 The Kernigal, 50/1 Bert Trick, 50/1 Fibril, 50/1 Mayarju.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LEARN (nap) has shown enough so far to make him really hard to beat in this field, which mainly comprises newcomers who would probably need to be Group-class to win this first-time out. Miss Dylan could put it up to him after her nice debut effort here. [Johnny Ward]
Price gap remains and this is an O'Brien price gapper with previous placed form in 2 runs. Plenty of debutants who, of course, could be anything dampens confidence a little.
850 SLIGO
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Local Celebrity, 11/4 Good Time Harry, 9/2 Madam Bovary, 12/1 Alexandr Nevsky, 16/1 Coldstonesober, 16/1 Miss Native, 25/1 Boots Hollow, 25/1 Misty Blue, 25/1 Wilkens Bar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LOCAL CELEBRITY can conclude a good day for the Willie Mullins yard. His second at Naas last year is the best of the limited form on offer here and granted he returns in similar vein after such a lay-off he should win, unless the Nina Carberry-ridden newcomer Good Time Harry is above average. Madam Bovary is the obvious threat. [Alan Hewison]
4 under 20/1 here but market consultation required nearer the off as this is a bumper.
320 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Janet´s Pearl, 5/2 Chilledtothebone, 7/2 Crown Ridge, 9/1 Maz, 25/1 Imperial Fong, 40/1 Ippi N Tombi, 50/1 Sally Anne.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Things didn't go well for JANET'S PEARL on her recent hurdles debut but she is unbeaten in two starts in sellers on the Flat and this 70-rated filly sets the standard for the others to aim at. The main danger is Chilledtothebone, who finished two places ahead of Crown Ridge when caught close home in a Leicester seller last time.[David Moon]
4 under 20/1 here for 3 places makes for an excellent probability race. A seller though.
SHORTLIST
1pm - Albirex Niigata (S) v Tanjong Pagar Utd - 1.15 home - my research indicates that the only way Tanjong will get anything from this match is if they keep a clean sheet. That has happened on 3 occasions this season and they have won 2 ( 1-0) and drawn 1 match (0-0).500 BRIGHTON - great probability race - 5 horses remain and still 3 places on Betfair. Mighty Mambo is the favourite. Default to him in this amateur rider's handicap?
805 CHEPSTOW - 3 horses under 25/1 - trust these maidens? Dreams of Dawn the favourite currently - late race so market watch ideally required
745 FOLKSTONE - 3 horses and 2 places but no liquidity to speak off yet in the place market.
310 HAYDOCK - Hunter Forward - everything looks in place here for a solid run with FAllon in the plate , a big price gap, and due to go up 4lbs in the future. What I have noticed about handicap favourites is an element of inconsistency re their runnings , but I hope here that I am picking a horse on the cusp of another winning performance and who will place at least at 1.2 currently ( again illiquid market)
545 LEOPARDSTOWN - price gappers for Aidan O'BRien rarely let me down. Learn is one such example . Lots of debutants though mean market inspection ideal.
320 YARMOUTH - a class 6 seller but 7 runners, 3 places and 4 under 20/1 makes this interesting from a probability perspective. Again I would opt for the market leader here , currently JAnet's Pearl at a suspiciously high 1.3 ( relays the fact this is a glorified donkey derby)
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
1pm - Albirex Niigata (S) v Tanjong Pagar Utd - 1.15 home-form would suggest that if Tanjong concede, they lose. Albirex have been in good home form and the odds suggest a 2,3,4 goal victory for the home side.All of the above probability races would be shortlisted. We have a greater chance of picking a horse to place than not. ( but it does not mean we will not pick the one to finish outside the places - it is pure luck but probability is on our side)
Elsewhere 310 Haydock Hunter Forward looks really good here - a good old fashioned strongly profiled price gapper.
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.
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