back-lay-trade-horses-football: 22/8

*****ONE A DAY - 6pm - Sundsvall v Vasteras SK - back Sundsvall in the match odds at 1.28 , down to 1.24***** Wait til nearer 6pm as the market may gain liquidity during the afternoon.

A missed 3 minute penalty completely changed the dynamic of the match yesterday. Celtic score it so early, and likely St johnstone capitulate. It wasn't to be. Again this SPL is a head scratcher.

430pm - KooTeePee v FC Espoo - 1.28 home - Finnish 2nd division and time constraints mean I should focus on soccerstats featured matches above others.

530pm - Lechia Gdansk v LKS Lodz - 1.55 home - Lodz are a new team to the Polish top flight and as it is on soccerstats.com, worthy of a small bit of research until the form fleshes out.
1-0 away loss, 2-1 away loss, 1-1 home draw for lechia Gdansk and the market expects the first win of the season against the newcomers with home advantage.
5-0 home loss, 4-0 away loss, 2-0 away loss. Lodz are yet to score in this Polish league so far, albeit only 3 matches. Far too early to be conclusive, but a pattern of not scoring and a 1.55 home side could signal a 1-0, 2-0 home team win?
Lechis Gdansk scored first in the 2 matches they scored in so far this season and their concession in a 1-0 loss was to a 79th minute goal. This hints again at the 1-0, 2-0 scoreline and a possibility that they could score first .
lodz have already conceded 7 goals in the first half this season.
6pm - Hammarby v Qviding - 1.49 home - Swedish 2nd division is on soccerstats.
HEAD TO HEADS

19.05.2011

Qviding FIF

2-2

Hammarby IF

LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 16th of 16. The tightness of this league means that a win for Hammarby could take them as high as 6th or 7th depending on goals scored. Quividing are on 10 points from 2 matches. Very poor.

HOME TEAM - HAMMARBY

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWLWLWDL - losses against 1st, 4th and 9th. sole draw away v 8th was a 0-0. Have played 4 of the bottom 5 at home, winning all 4 , but 2 of the matches were 1-0s, the others 2-1 and 3-1.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDDWWLWDDLLD - very poor recent form has seen 3 0-0's against 6th, 8th, and then 2 losses 3-1 and 3-0 against 9th and 14th.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 over 2.5 goals. hammarby have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches and 5 of their last 7 matches. 3 0-0's in the last 5 matches.

STREAKS - no win in 5 overall

AWAY TEAM QVIDING

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDDLLLWDLL - sole win was 1-0 v 8th. 2 of the 3 draws were, yes you guessed, 0-0. Losses against 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th ,9th ,10th . hammarby are 12th

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLDWLDLLLL - win as above. Conceded 3 goals in 3 of the last 4 losses.

GOAL TRENDS - 60% overs. Failed to score in 70% of their away matches. 4 of last 5 matches overall over 2.5 goals. Failed to score in 3 of last 6.

STREAKS - 6 overall without a win. 4 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Hammarby have beaten 4 of bottom 5 at home ( playing 5th today). Recent form very poor. 3 0-0's and a 3-1 and 3-0 loss. Not scored in 4 of last 5 matches! Qviding conceded 3 goals in 3 of the last 4 losses. Qviding have failed to score in 70% of their away matches.
What do we make of Hammarby's inability to score in 4 of their last 5 matches? Today's match against an away side incapable of scoring in 70% of away matches could signal a 1-0 win? But then Qviding have conceded 3 in 3 of their last 4 losses.
A messy affair and a dodge pot favourite on a recent run of poor form, playing an even worse side at the bottom of the table.

6pm - IFK Goteborg v Gefle - 1.54 home - on soccerstats.com
HEAD TO HEADS

26.06.2011	D1	Gefle IF	1-0	IFK Göteborg
07.11.2010	D1	IFK Göteborg	2-2	Gefle IF
16.05.2010	D1	Gefle IF	0-0	IFK Göteborg
13.09.2009	D1	Gefle IF	0-3	IFK Göteborg
09.07.2009	Cup	IFK Göteborg	3-1	Gefle IF
07.05.2009	D1	IFK Göteborg	3-0	Gefle IF

Bit of a fightback in head to heads from Gefle of late. In the last 2-2 home draw, Goteborg were 2-0 up.

LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 10th - Gefle have a game in hand over Goteborg and would be on parity points wise with a win.

HOME TEAM - GOTEBORG

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWWDLDWWW - losses against 1st, 7th and 13th. Wins against 3rd, 5th, 6th, 15th ,16th. Have yet to play 9th, 10th, 11th at home. Have scored 3 in last 3 home wins, albeit 2 matches against bottom 2 sides but more impressive win against AIK.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWDLWWLWLWL - losses are coming away from home so onus must currently be on home performance.

GOAL TRENDS - 60% over 2.5 goals at home. Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. 6 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals, the exception a 2-0 scoreline.

STREAKS - 3 match winning streak at home - 4 without defeat. 8 overall without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - GEFLE

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDLWDDWLL - losses come away against 1st, 11th and 12th, but against 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 9th, we see, away from home, WDWDWD - all draws 0-0's and 2 of the wins 2-3 scorelines. 0-0 cover and hope for volatility in this match?

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWDWWLLLLL - 3 of those losses at home. A losing rut is not a good place to be.

GOAL TRENDS - last 2 matches under 2.5 goals but 4 of last 6 over 2.5 goals. 40% overs away from home. Gefle have failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches. A sudden collapse?

STREAKS- 7 overall without a draw, current losing streak of 5.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Goteborg historically have the upper hand at home. 8 and 7 without a draw for both sides. Goteborg have scored 3 in the last 3 home wins, albeit 2 matches against bottom 2 sides. BUT note Gefle's scorelines away to 3rd-9th inclusive, 2 2-3 wins, 3 0-0's and 2-0 win. It is the 2-3's that might picque my interest given Goteborg's recent home abilities to score 3 goals.
Could be a humdinger 5 match thriller or another 0-0!!
3 match winning streak at home v 5 match overall losing streak for Gefle.
It is another headscratcher, but it could be the type of match where you lay the first goalscorer if Gefle can reproduce their away form which showed in their 2 2-3 away wins.

6pm - Sundsvall v Vasteras SK - 1.28 home - Swedish 2nd division
HEAD TO HEADS

19.05.2011

Västerås SK FK

0-0

GIF Sundsvall

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 15th

HOME TEAM - Sundsvall

RECENT HOME FORM - LWDWDWWWWW - solitary loss at home against 8th. draws against 10th adn 12th, Beat 14th and 16th 2-0 and 4-0 ( without conceding!!)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWWWWWWWL - recent winning streak broken away to 9th 3-1 loss. 5 home matches and 2 away in recent 7 match winning streak.

GOAL TRENDS - 80% over 2.5 goals at home. Score an average 2.5 and concede an average 0.6 at home

STREAKS - 5 match winning streak at home, 9 without defeat at home, 9 overall without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - Vasteras

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLDLLLWLL - wins against 5th 3-4 and bottom 0-1 away -losses against 1st, 2nd ,4th, 7th, 12th, 13th, 14th. Playing 3rd today so inference is that they are vulnerable. Conceded 3-4-4 against top 4 sides away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLLWDLWLL - 4-2 at home against 7th and 1-0 away to bottom the wins - that 4-2 is rather random!

GOAL TRENDS - 70% overs away from home. last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - no draw in 6 away matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - one of the more readable matches today - I suspect it will be let down by market illiquidity. I suspect the 0-0 head to head will nto be repeated. Possibility of a 3-4 goal home win if Vasteras are as bad against 3rd away as they were against 1st, 2nd and 4th. Goals looks a call as well, 80% and 70% overs percentages are high.

650pm - Hapoel Tel Aviv v Maccabi Petah Tikva - 1.6 home - Israel not on soccerstats.

7pm - KR Reykjavik v Stjarnan - 1.41 home - on soccerstats this Icelandic league so I will do my research
HEAD TO HEADS

25.05.2011	Cup	Stjarnan FC	0-3	KR Reykjavik
22.05.2011	D1	Stjarnan FC	1-1	KR Reykjavik
05.08.2010	D1	KR Reykjavik	3-1	Stjarnan FC
20.05.2010	D1	Stjarnan FC	2-2	KR Reykjavik
20.09.2009	D1	KR Reykjavik	7-3	Stjarnan FC
02.07.2009	D1	Stjarnan FC	1-1	KR Reykjavik

Reykjavik have scored 10 in last 2 head to head meetings at home.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 5th and Reykjavik have played 2 matches fewer than Stjarnan and indeed the rest of the league so have done extremely well to be top with a 2 match handicap.

HOME TEAM - Reykjavik

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDWW - draws against 4th and 7th both 1-1's Might signal vulnerability v 5th

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWWDWWWWDWWW - all draws 1-1's against 4th 5th ( away) and 7th.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs at home. Have scored in all matches this season.last 3 over 2.5 goals and 5 of last 6 over 2.5 goals with a 1-1 draw inbetween.

STREAKS - 2 match home winning streak - no defeat in 13 overall.

AWAY TEAM - Stjarnan

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWLLDD -2 wins against bottom 5 sides. Lost away to 2nd and 3rd away 2-1 and 3-0.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWDWLDWD - inconsistent as unable to string together a sequence of wins or draws. All wins have come from 6th to 12th, and mostly at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 57% overs away from home. 8 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals and again 2 1-1 draws stop a full house!Have conceded in all bar 2 this season home and away.

STREAKS - 2 away without defeat ( both 1-1 losses)

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - it would seem the only scoreline to scupper a home win will be 1-1. Concern that Starjnan are so inconsistent as to be unreadable. LWLWDWLDWD -no sequences at all recently. Could be anything? But if we suggest they are incapable of stringing a sequence together, then this should not be a draw today should it?

715pm - St Pauli v Duisburg - 1.87 home - another look at a newly relegated side who could be dominant in Bundesliga 2

29.01.2010	D2	MSV Duisburg	0-2	St. Pauli
22.08.2009	D2	St. Pauli	2-2	MSV Duisburg
12.04.2009	D2	St. Pauli	2-2	MSV Duisburg

Recent head to head missing as St Pauli were in the Bundesliga.
2-0 and 3-1 wins at home and WDWW so far this season. Back to a level they can be competitive in.
St Pauli have conceded first in their last 2 matches, winning both eventually.
LLDD for Duisburg so far. 3-2 away loss and 1-2 home loss ended with 2 0-0 draws away and at home.
I cannot see this being 0-0 this evening and St Pauli could be value to break the deadlock having found their goalscoring boots at home , scoring 5 in 2 home matches. - 0-0 a cover bet and back St Pauli?

8pm - Man Utd v Tottenham - 1.65 home - first match of the season for the Spuds, but a recent European dismantling of Hearts showed the attacking flair they possess.Early season means no real form analysis, so I will round up what I can find. first stop is www.premierleague.com
"

Man Utd v Tottenham

Manchester United have an excellent record against Tottenham with their unbeaten stretch lasting 20 Premier League matches.

Spurs' last league success at Old Trafford came in December 1989 with a 1-0 win.

Wayne Rooney enjoye playing against the North Londoners having scored five goals in seven Premier League matches.

United only hit one shot on target against West Bromwich last week but still won 2-1 due to an own goal."

ottenham Hotspur become the last club to get their Barclays Premier League campaign under way as they face a tough trip to Manchester United.

Man Utd team news

Patrice Evra returns to the Manchester United line-up for Monday's Barclays Premier League match with Spurs after missing the season-opening win at West Bromwich Albion with an ankle injury.

With Rio Ferdinand unlikely to return until next weekend due to a hamstring injury, and with captain Nemanja Vidic out for up to five weeks with a calf problem, youngsters Phil Jones and Jonny Evans will form the centre-back pairing.

Darren Fletcher (virus), Antonio Valencia (ankle) and Javier Hernandez (concussion) are all closing in on a return, but are not yet ready.

Michael Owen is out with a back problem, whilst Rafael faces up to 10 weeks on the sidelines after undergoing surgery to repair a dislocated shoulder.

Spurs team news

Luka Modric is likely to return to Tottenham's starting line-up after missing the 5-0 win over Hearts with a minor groin injury.

Tom Huddlestone (ankle) could also return after starting on the bench at Tynecastle, but fellow midfielders Sandro, Wilson Palacios (both knee) Steven Pienaar (groin), and Jermaine Jenas (Achilles) are all out.

Peter Crouch will be tested over the weekend after missing yesterday's win with an ankle injury but Ledley King and Alan Hutton are sidelined with knee injuries and William Gallas is also out with a calf problem.

squads

Manchester United: De Gea, Lindegaard, Smalling, Ferdinand, Jones, Evra, Evans, Fabio, Nani, Park, Cleverley, Anderson, Carrick, Giggs, Young, Rooney, Berbatov, Welbeck, Diouf, Macheda.

Tottenham Hotspur: Gomes, Friedel, Cudicini, Bale, Kaboul, Bassong, Dawson, Corluka, Walker, Assou-Ekotto, Huddlestone, Lennon, Van der Vaart, Modric, Kranjcar, Rose, Livermore, Townsend, Bentley, Pavlyuchenko, Crouch, Defoe.

Possible issues? Well Ferdinand and Vidic both out hints at vulnerability in defence. Compound that with a less than assured De Gea and United could be vulnerable to an electric front line from the Spuds. I would like to see a strong Spuds outfit out tonight such as Bale, Van Der Vaart, Defoe, Lennon - this kind of speed could upset the fledgling centre back pairing.

Nice stat from last week - United managed only one shot on target against WBA last week but still won 2-1. As our over weight American cousins would say " Go figure!"

palacios a big miss I would say for Spurs as a defensive midfielder.

16.01.2011	PR	Tottenham	0-0	Manchester United
30.10.2010	PR	Manchester United	2-0	Tottenham
24.04.2010	PR	Manchester United	3-1	Tottenham
01.12.2009	LC	Manchester United	2-0	Tottenham
12.09.2009	PR	Tottenham	1-3	Manchester United
25.04.2009	PR	Manchester United	5-2	Tottenham

United have won the last 4 recent head to heads at old Trafford, and by a comfortable 2 or more goal margin. United have generally scored 2nd half goals in their wins, so we might be looking at a tight first 20 or so minutes ( please Mr Rooney, curb your enthusiasm after you scuppered by early 0-0 trade v WBA).
If the match is 0-0 at halftime, or Spurs are leading at halftime, expect at least 2 goals in the 2nd half.
Tough to get an angle in as this is a transfer window match, Man Utd is a relatively new side, and this is Spurs first match of the season. Just because it is high profile does not make it a good trading or betting medium.

740 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Secret Hero, 6/1 Balmont Flyer, 8/1 Lombrici, 10/1 Headache, 10/1 Shirley Schmidt, 12/1 Sacre Fleur, 14/1 Bangalore Prince, 14/1 Sli Na Croi, 16/1 Catalpa, 20/1 If Paradise, 20/1 Mountain Mama, 25/1 Cookie Crumbles, 25/1 Dinah Doll, 25/1 Elusive Gent, 25/1 Proper Madam.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The in-form Ado McGuinness will be delighted at the opportunity presented here to SECRET HERO, who is hard to oppose. In a race littered with regressive types, Headache has some scope to trouble the favourite. [Johnny Ward]

Big price gapper in this handicap won last time out. disadvantages? 15 runners means 3 places - one more runner would have paid out 4 places.

400 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 1/12 Quails Hollow, 8/1 Elk Trail, 20/1 Spread Boy, 20/1 Why So Serious.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's impossible to get away from QUAILS HOLLOW, despite the scars from a previous odds-on failure. It's anyone's should he blow out a second time.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Obvious.

800 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Candelita, 9/4 Mini Muck, 9/2 Lily Le Braz, 10/1 Corlea, 14/1 Bold Tara, 14/1 Sun Up, 20/1 Kings Heroine, 25/1 Panashka, 25/1 Whatalittlecracker, 33/1 Sweet Vera.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CANDELITA and Mini Muck finished placed in two bumpers on the same card at Worcester earlier this month and the selection's division was run in a much quicker time.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

i like form in bumpers and 32 for Candelita might see the horse place again. 8pm race time though and a bumper so market is important.

515 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Kawssaj, 5/1 Cape Rambler, 13/2 Local Singer, 7/1 Golden Tempest, 10/1 Foxtrot Hotel, 10/1 Moretta Blanche, 12/1 She Ain´t A Saint, 14/1 Rondeau, 16/1 Douze Points, 16/1 Imprimis Tagula, 20/1 Charles Fosterkane, 20/1 Ocean Legend, 25/1 Copperwood.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The key horse is Kawssaj, who is bred to go on to much better things after his winning his maiden on this surface but does have a tricky draw to contend with and won't be much of a price. LOCAL SINGER is a sporting alternative, as the horses he divided at Salisbury last time have since run well in competitive handicaps and he's definitely got a race in him off his current mark.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

I mentioned Kawssaj last time and he won. Wide draw here the concern but a strong market leader still.

SHORTLIST