back-lay-trade-horses-football: 30/8

I'm going to place my faith in a maiden today. I fully acknowledge it is dangerous to do so, particularly when all 7 runners have only had the one run. I place my faith in the betting market here. 2 under 20/1 and an original favourite a non runner surely opens things up to Dynamic Duo. From the Hannon yard, I just hope he improves on first run ( not guaranteed) and that the need to only beat 4 horses to place can help him get in the first 3

*****ONE A DAY - 315 EPSOM - Dynamic Duo to place only*****

The late late show from KR Reykjavik but job done.

430pm - Klubi-04 v FC Kiffen - 1.37 home - Finnish division 3 - I don't think my knowledge stretches to the Finnish lower tiers. Likely an illiquid match too. It is researchable at www.soccerway.com and www.futbol24.com but I feel would be time wasted due to aforementioned illiquid markets.
445pm - OKS v Esbjerg - 1.18 away - Danish Cup and the odds look about right as Division 4 plays Division 2. I know esjberg and their recent matches have seen them score 2-2-3-3-5-2-3 and total goals of 3-3-4-4-4-9-5-3. Against a Division 4 side, they should score 4 minimum ( as per the sub 1.2 odds) - likely illiquid again for traders, but might be worthwhile getting involved. In all cup encounters I like seeing gulfs in leagues.
6-12-7-5-4- the total goals in OKS's last 5 matches augurs well for goals.
530pm - HIK v HB Koge - 1.42 away - Division 3A v Division 1 and Koge are struggling in the top tier.6 losses and a 3-0 home win. Will the Cup be a welcome distraction?
Both team's matches are full of goals.
745pm - Swindon v Southampton - 1.77 away - I venture into the lower leagues rarely but like to follow the hot teams and Soton are one of those.

26.02.2011	L1	Southampton	4-1	Swindon Town
11.09.2010	L1	Swindon Town	1-0	Southampton
31.08.2010	JPT	Southampton	0-3	Swindon Town
16.03.2010	L1	Southampton	0-1	Swindon Town
18.08.2009	L1	Swindon Town	1-0	Southampton

league Cup and both teams of contrasting fortunes. One went down to League 2 and the other up to the Championship. At Swindon, Swindon have won 1-0 in both recent encounters. All down to team news for a Soton side with 5 wins and a 3-2 away loss v Leicester.Swindon have not had a draw in their last 12 and have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
US OPEN - look for big guns and back them to win in straight sets to enhance the odds.
6pm - Wozniacki v Llagostera Vives - 1.05 - one of the big guns and look immediately to 2-0 sets.
715pm - Djokovic v Niland - 1.01 - 3-0 sets? Look also for possible shock and swoop at better odds. 1.02 layable of course for minimal risk.
Midnight - Golubev v Nadal - 1.03 Nadal - again trust 3-0 sets?
2am - Jovanovski v S Williams -1.04 Williams - Mike Tyson's twin brother Serena returns.

315 EPSOM

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Albamara, 7/4 Burano, 7/1 Dynamic Duo, 12/1 Shivsingh, 14/1 Tallevu, 33/1 Edensor, 33/1 Le Cagnard, 50/1 Paloma´s Prince.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A less competitive maiden than the ones Burano has been contesting and he looks sure to go close, but ALBAMARA was unfortunate on her debut at Kempton last week and she can gain compensation.[Adrian Cook[

8 runners - 3 places - 3 under 20/1 and obviously Dynamic Duo is the each way value alternative. Burano has had 3 runs, the rest are all one time outers open to improvement.

325 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dick Doughtywylie, 4/1 Always The Lady, 6/1 Late Telegraph, 10/1 Red Lago, 14/1 Astragal, 25/1 Mafeteng, 66/1 Touching The Stars, 100/1 Royal Reason.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There should be plenty more to come from DICK DOUGHTYWYLIE, who made an encouraging debut at the Newmarket July meeting, and he should get off the mark. Always The Lady has not really built on her 2yo promise, while it will be interesting to see what the market makes of the 320,000gns buy Late Telegraph who is equipped in a hood for his debut.[Adrian Cook]

8 runners - 3 places - 3 under 14/1 adn an odds on shot who must have a good chance of placing if the odds are accurate ( it is a maiden after all)

Goodwood has nearly all 8/9 runner races which scream out for each way involvement if so inclined. 8 runners is the minimum which pays out on 3 places.

2pm RIPON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Janet´s Pearl, 4/1 En Fuego, 6/1 Yorksters Prince, 12/1 Umbonga, 20/1 Spread Boy, 25/1 Fairys In A Storm, 40/1 May Burnett, 40/1 Sally Anne.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's impossible to oppose JANET'S PEARL who is 1-1 at Ripon, 2-3 in selling grade and well clear on adjusted official ratings. En Fuego and Yorksters Prince look set for minor honours.[Steve Boow]

2 under 10/1 and "impossible to oppose" Janet to place? en fuego the value alternative albeit in a seller.

440 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ghost Train, 3/1 Three Sugars, 4/1 Scrooby Doo, 6/1 Bogey Hole, 10/1 New Romantic, 16/1 Bengaline, 33/1 Echo Of Dubai, 50/1 Gilly´s Giant.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Anything saddled by Jeremy Noseda wants considering at the moment and, while newcomer Three Sugars doesn't hold any notable entries, she's related to winners. Scrooby Doo has plenty of Fibresand experience but is limited, and GHOST TRAIN, who found it all too much on his first day at school last month, is given the chance to show what he's capable of.[Graham Wheldon]

Another 8 runner race today for 3 places and Scrooby doo interests as he has the most experience.

755 WOLVERHAMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Change The Subject, 5/1 Mahfal, 6/1 Kyllachy Spirit, 10/1 Swooping Hawk, 14/1 Midnight Waltz, 20/1 Akarana, 20/1 Fairest Isle, 20/1 Novirak, 20/1 Our Freedom, 100/1 Millers Dhustone, 100/1 My Cherie Amour, 100/1 Noneedtofret.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many of these make much appeal in the short term and the pair to concentrate on could be Mahfal and CHANGE THE SUBJECT. The former is bred to be useful and has joined a stable who are likely to maximise his ability, but the selection looked an improved performer on his handicap debut earlier in the month and a reproduction of that form should suffice.[Paul Smith]

A big price gapper, even bigger in the live betting, but note the race time ! Need to see the market a bit nearer to 8pm than 1020am!

As an aside, there are many 8/9 runner races throughout the cards today and if you want to speculate the bigger prices, and take on the favourites, then each way betting is the way to go with these 8/9 runner races. Perhaps each way doubles and trebles ( to throwaway stakes?) I cannot recall a day as each way friendly as this one.

11 8/9 runner races and remember the bookies hate each way betting for a reason! The odds are in your favour not theirs!

SHORTLIST

445pm - OKS v Esbjerg - 1.18 away - likely an illiquid betting market on Betfair but I would be happy taking 1.18 given the gulf in the leagues. Goals looks on the cards too if we are basing the suggestion on recent form.