back-lay-trade-horses-football: 5/8

it's a choice for me from Home United ( I would deem this a little more speculative) who should keep superb home record up, Derry City who should heap more misery on Galway UNited, and An Ghalanta who is a consistent Irish maiden running in the 515 Tipperary.

*****ONE A DAY - 1pm - HOME UNITED v GOMBACK UNITED - BACK HOME UNITED IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.28 - 1.3*****
Yes, a draw could be a possibility here as Gomback have drawn against 2nd and 4th before, but recently lost 7 of last 9 and lost 4 of last 5 away and recently conceded 2,3,5 goals against 4th, 5th and 6th,
It is the bigger price of the more solid alternatives. I hope Home United remain as strong as they have been at home this season.

A nice enough 1.3 Betfair SP for Hunter Forward was very welcome as the horse won.

1pm - Home Utd v Gomback Utd - 1.3 home
HEAD TO HEADS

12.05.2011	D1	Gombak United	1-4	Home United
24.02.2011	D1	Home United	3-0	Gombak United
22.10.2010	D1	Gombak United	1-1	Home United
05.07.2010	D1	Home United	2-0	Gombak United
21.04.2010	D1	Gombak United	1-0	Home United
25.02.2010	LC	Home United	0-1	Gombak United

Early tight head to heads quashed by last 2 2011 results which saw Home United score 7 goals to 1 conceded.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 8th and a need for Home United to really keep up the pressure with a tight top 3 points wise.

HOME TEAM - Home United

RECENT HOME FORM- WWWLWWWWWW - superb home form -solitary loss was a 1-0 63rd minute loss v 3rd placed. A relative consistency in goals scored at home this season - 3,2,2,0,2,5,4,3,2,3 - basically if Home United score at home, they should win. The solitary occasion they did not score, they lost. 5,4,3,2,3, scored since then adds an element of confidence that they should find the net today.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWWWWLWWWWLW - no draw recently ties in with no draw AT ALL at home. All losses against top 5 sides includes twice against Etoile.

GOAL TRENDS - 9 wins, 1 loss, 3 clean sheets - 2.6 scored, 1 conceded on average at home - a naturalised over 2.5 goals. 9 of last 11 matches have been over 2.5 goals -the 2 exceptions were 2-0.

STREAKS - 12 matches at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - GOMBACK

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDWWDLLLLD - 3 wins away against 9th, 10th, 11th . Draws against 12th, 2nd and 4th - interesting against 2nd and 4th and playing 1st today. 0-0 draw against bottom side most recent and probably reflective of Gomback's level. Recent losses against 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th,

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLLLLWLLLD - only one win in last 10 was at home to 10th.Most recent draw a 0-0 against bottom side.

GOAL TRENDS - have recently conceded 2,3,5 against 4th, 5th and 6th. 3 wins, 5 losses, 3 draws, 4 clean sheets , 0.82 scored, 1.18 conceded away from home. 4 clean sheets in 11 away matches is quite a good return.

STREAKS - 7 away matches without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Home United consistently score 2 or 3 at home, and have won all bar one match ( a 1-0 loss againsst 3rd in the league). Gomback lost 4 on the trot until a 0-0 draw against 12th. Suspect a home win is the most obvious outcome , what with a dearth of draws for Home United at home and a Gomback United side unlikely to win. CAUTION - draws against 2nd and 4th seem anomolous for Gomback but could hint at, on their A game, they could frustrate 1st in the league? Recent losses to 4th, 5th and 6th though might swing us back in Home United's camp

730pm - Anderlecht v KV Mechelen - 1.42 home - only the 2nd match of the season and an unexpected 2-1 defeat for Anderlecht ( so often the dominant force in Belgium)

30.01.2011	D1	KV Mechelen	0-0	Anderlecht
26.09.2010	D1	Anderlecht	5-0	KV Mechelen
21.02.2010	D1	Anderlecht	2-0	KV Mechelen
25.10.2009	D1	KV Mechelen	0-2	Anderlecht
13.03.2009	D1	KV Mechelen	2-1	Anderlecht
13.01.2009	Cup	KV Mechelen	2-1	Anderlecht

Historically, in recent home meetings, Anderlecht dominate without conceding and away they MAY struggle but last 2 aways saw 0-2 win and 0-0 draw. 4 matches on the trot Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet against Mechelen.
Anderlecht lost 2-1 away to OH Leuven and Mechelen beat Sint Truiden 2-1 at home. WHat I normally like to do with these early season matches is to look at how Anderlecht performed at home and how Sint Truiden performed away from home last season, but soccerstats does not have historical tables for these lesser leagues. www.futbol24.com has the table still up. Anderlecht won the league , won 11 and drew 4 matches without loss at home all season.
Sint Truiden came 12th last year, and away they won 2, drew 3 and lost 10 matches.

Make of that what you will. These early season matches are difficult to evaluate with any recent form.

745pm - Galway Utd v Derry - 1.14 away
HEAD TO HEADS

30.05.2011	PR	Derry City	6-0	Galway United
15.04.2011	PR	Galway United	1-4	Derry City
13.04.2010	LC	Derry City	3-2	Galway United
13.02.2010	CF	Derry City	2-1	Galway United
16.10.2009	PR	Galway United	3-1	Derry City
01.09.2009	PR	Derry City	1-3	Galway United

Derry have won the last 4 encounters and all matches have been over 2.5 goals. 10 goals scored by Derry in last 2 head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION 10th ( of 10) plays 2nd - a win takes Derry top, albeit provisionally.

HOME TEAM - GALWAY UNITED

RECENT HOME FORM - LDLLLLLLLLLL - solitary draw was against 8th in the league. In 6 matches out of 7 against the top 7, Galway have failed to score. They conceded 8 and 4 against 1st and 2nd at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL - last loss a 1-0 - a glimmer of hope?

GOAL TRENDS - 58.3% over 2.5 goals at home. Have failed to score in 75% of home matches.Average 0.41 scored and 2.75 conceded at home. 8 of last 11 matches over 2.5 goals - 2 matches were 2-0 losses and the other a 1-0 loss. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches all season and have conceded in all of their last 20 matches.Have failed to score in 11 of their last 14 matches.

STREAKS - lost last 10 at home.

AWAY TEAM - DERRY

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDWWWLLDDDWW - pretty good away form.Draws were all score draws against 3rd, 4th, and 8th. Wins against 5th, 7th, 9th , 10th Losses against 1st and 6th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWDLWDDWDDWWWD - draws mostly confined to top 7 sides.

GOAL TRENDS - 58.3% over 2.5 goals away from home. Over 2.5 goals in 3 of last 5 matches. Have kept a clean sheet in 5 of last 7 matches. The only times they have failed to score away from home, they lost both matches.

STREAKS - 5 without a loss away - 2 match winning streak away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - can we keep oppposing Galway United - surely they will put in a good performance eventually? It all points, though, to a Derry win to nil here, by 2,3,4 ?

2am - France U20 v Mali U20 - 1.29 home - France beat South Korea 3-1 and lost to 4-1. Mali lost 2-0 to Columbia and 2-0 to South Korea
Against South Korea, France were flattered by 81st and 91st minute goals so 3-1 does not tell of any kind of dominance. As I have said before, taking a contrarian view in these matches could pay.

500 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Snowy Peak, 100/30 Ishikawa, 4/1 Drumadoon, 6/1 Out Of The Storm, 10/1 Harry Lime, 14/1 Talkative Guest, 16/1 Avon Supreme, 33/1 Notify.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's all about getting a win out of the impeccably bred SNOWY PEAK and Jeremy Noseda might well have unearthed the ideal opening at a venue he clearly likes (strike-rate of 15-31 last five seasons). Ishikawa and Drumadoon are the alternatives, though neither are the quickest.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

7 runners and still 3 places and 4 under 10/1 but a class 6 handicap ( not the best race in the world) -are you taken by Jeremy Noseda's strike rate at Brighton? It is very impressive.Suspiciously high place only price ( probably because of the poor race type) but good probability of placing for Snowy peak.

210 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Jamr, 9/2 Fairy Pose, 5/1 Wayward Glance, 7/1 High Samana, 7/1 Rien Ne Vas Plus, 12/1 Scotsbrook Cloud, 20/1 Mancunian, 33/1 Veradis, 100/1 Himalayan Moon.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No Verdict

No Verdict here which is strange. Jamr though is a price gapper, represents Godolphin and ever dependable Ted Durcan. This is now a 9 runner maiden with 5 under 20/1 for the 3 places. Wayward Glance is the market mover into 9/4 with Jamr remaining at 6/4 - next best is 5/1

830 NEWMARKET

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Long Awaited, 13/2 Quasi Congaree, 13/2 Rocket Rob, 8/1 Macdillon, 9/1 Clear Praise, 12/1 Cardinal, 12/1 Desert Strike, 12/1 Mirza, 12/1 Rough Rock, 14/1 Rafaaf, 16/1 Fabreze, 20/1 Merchant Of Medici.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some of these have had their favours from the handicapper for now but LONG AWAITED (nap) remains a sprinter of potential despite getting turned over at Chester last time. He will appreciate the drop in class and is well worth another chance. Quasi Congaree may be best of the others.[Emily Weber]

Price gapper in a handicap now 7/4 - - - -6/1 - but notice race time - a lot could happen between now ( midday) and 830pm

515 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 An Ghalanta, 7/2 Angels Art, 7/1 Kerriegold, 8/1 Homecoming Queen, 10/1 Secret Vale, 12/1 Hexagonal, 12/1 Multitasking, 14/1 Antiquus, 20/1 Clubland, 33/1 Jpevie, 33/1 Malt Reed, 33/1 Tubbertown King, 50/1 Genuine Hawk, 100/1 Boudicca.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No Verdict

Why the Racing Post is not providing a verdict on all races is beyond me. Any ideas anyone? In any case, an Ghalanta has proven to be a consistent maiden for Bolger/Manning and could be worth place only backing again here 11/10 - - -- 7/2 so hardened at the head of the market.

SHORTLIST