back-lay-trade-horses-football: 29/8

***ONE A DAY -
7pm - KR Reykjavik v Fram - Back KR in the match odds at 1.3***** - worse case should be a score draw . Leave bets til as near 7pm as possible as there is no money in the market at present. If this remains illiquid you will be backing a 1.3 shot at ridiculously valueless odds . Barca an obvious alternative and must win really, but this could be an interesting trading match. they should score first and liquidity not an issue.
Of the horses, Roedean should make experience count for Hannon/Hughes against , it must be said, a lot of newcomers who could be proverbial dark horses.

Rangers won and I got the correct score, 2-0. Also, if you feel confident you can back NO in the Both teams to score market, if you think Rangers will win to nil

Soccer > Rangers v Aberdeen : Both teams to Score?

Showing 1 - 1 of 1 Selections

Selection	Odds	Stake(€)	Bid type	Placed	Profit/loss(€)
No	1.76	37.00	Back	28-Aug-11 14:52	28.12
*Average odds: On Off				Back subtotal:	28.12
				Lay subtotal:	0.00
				Market subtotal:	28.12
				Commission @ 4.59%:	1.29
				Net Market Total:	26.83

I only placed a £37 bet herre as it was a new market to me.

3pm - Alania Vladikavkaz v Shinnik - 1.36 home. - Russian 2nd division.
430pm - Haka v HJK Helsinki - 1.57 away - Finnish First Division - I said I was going to focus on soccerstats leagues this season but I am way ahead of schedule so will squeeze in this finnish league.

HEAD TO HEADS

18.06.2011	D1	FC Haka	0-5	HJK Helsinki
18.02.2011	LC	FC Haka	0-3	HJK Helsinki
28.01.2011	CF	HJK Helsinki	1-1/p.3-4	FC Haka
24.07.2010	D1	FC Haka	0-3	HJK Helsinki
26.04.2010	D1	HJK Helsinki	1-1	FC Haka
31.01.2010	CF	HJK Helsinki	3-0	FC Haka

This reminds me of the Rangers v Motherwell price. Rangers scored 11 in last 2 but were backable at better odds than HJK today and won with ease. Well HJK have scored 8 to no reply away to FC Haka ( albeit one match a cup match) and have scored 3 or more to no reply in 4 of their last 6 encounters. That makes this 1.57 very tempting.

LEAGUE POSITION 6th v 1st but it's 28 points v 54 points.

HOME TEAM HAKA

RECENT HOME FORM - DLDWWLWLLW - no draw in 7 at home. Wins against 12th, 10th, 9th, 2nd. 2nd looks a tad anomolous but was a cut and dried 2-0 win. Losses v 1st, 3rd, 7th

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLLDLWWW - recent winning streak v 12th, 2nd, 10th where HAKA scored 2 in each match.

GOAL TRENDS - last 11 matches all over 1.5 goals. 19/20 matches over 1.5 goals. 4 wins, 4 losses, 2 draws at home - 4 clean sheets , 1.1 scored, 1.4 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 7 home matches in all competitions without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - HJK Helsinki

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLWWWWWLW - no draw away - losses v 8th and 9th and playing 6th today - vulnerable?

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWWWWWWWLWWWW -nowt to say there!1-0 away loss to 9th.

GOAL TRENDS - 7 wins, 3 losses away - 6 clean sheets - 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded on average away.

STREAKS - 15 away without a draw - 32 in all competitions without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - BOING! Standout draw stats for HJK gives us a clear angle in surely?Winning streak too at present and likely to win rather than lose ( if there is to be no draw.) 18/19 matches over 1.5 goals and 19/20 for Haka over 1.5 goals. obvious way in. Might be an illiquid market but get better nearer kick off?

5pm - Omonia v Alki Larnaca - 1.19 home - 1st match of a new Cypriot league so watching brief advised. Omonia have only drawn 1 match in their last 12 - an angle in?
530pm - LKS Lodz v Legia Warsaw - 1.81 away

16.07.2010	CF	Legia Warszawa	2-1	LKS Lodz
02.05.2009	D1	Legia Warszawa	1-0	LKS Lodz
18.11.2008	LC	LKS Lodz	2-3	Legia Warszawa

One of these teams is a newcomer and the odds suggest it's the home side. On soccerstats so worth looking at. No really relevant head to heads to work on.

LEAGUE POSITION - 16th of 16 v 9th.

HOME TEAM - LKS LODZ

RECENT HOME FORM - 0-5 loss to current league leaders ( albeit after only 5 matches)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLD - Have failed to score in 4 matches. Have played 1st (H), 2nd (A), 3rd (A), 11th (A) - 0-0 draw. Playing 9th today, likely to find it a bit easier than tricky start. A feeling already that Lodz are going to struggle this season.

GOAL TRENDS irrelevant as only 1 home match to work on.

STREAKS - 4 losses and a draw, failed to score in all 4 matches, 3 matches saw 3-4-5 conceded.

AWAY TEAM - LEGIA WARSAW

RECENT AWAY FORM - 1-3 away win against current 15th

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWL - saw Legia score 3-3-1 in those 3 matches.

GOAL TRENDS -scored in all matches this season, albeit only 4

STREAKS - irrelevant with only 3 matches

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 3 and 4 matches to work on, but already Lodz will struggle it would seem, even to score. Logically, therefore, we back Legia Warsaw and the 0-0 incase Legia score first ( as they are likely to provide a goal?)
You know as well as I do, though, that getting stuck in based on 3 and 4 matches and no recent head to heads is not ideal !

6pm - Maccabi Tel Aviv v FC Ashod - 1.42 home - Israeli top flight not on soccertats.
6pm - Rosenborg v Odd Grenland - 1.65 home
HEAD TO HEADS

30.05.2011	D1	Odd Grenland BK	3-3	Rosenborg BK
18.07.2010	D1	Rosenborg BK	1-1	Odd Grenland BK
11.04.2010	D1	Odd Grenland BK	1-3	Rosenborg BK
02.08.2009	D1	Odd Grenland BK	1-1	Rosenborg BK
19.04.2009	D1	Rosenborg BK	1-1	Odd Grenland BK

4 draws and a Rosenborg away win. At home, 2 1-1 draws between these 2. The longer this 1-1 sequence goes on, the nearer it is to ending ( note Eintracht Frankfurt yesterday with their 1-1 sequence - it ended with a 0-0, BUT at least it ended!) These draws relate one thing. Perhaps it is worth laying the first goalscorers in the hope of a comeback?

LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 13th -Rosenborg have played only 18 matches to others' 20 and 21 matches.

HOME TEAM - ROSENBORG

RECENT HOME FORM - LDWLWWWW - great recent winning form. Back in the groove.Wins against 1st, 2nd, 5th, 8th, 16th. Losses against 4th and 7th. Tough to gauge how they will perform against teams around Odds as they have not played 10th - 16th inclusive at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLDDWWDWWLDWD - only 1 loss in 11 was an away loss. 4 of the last 5 draws were score draws which infers over 1.5 goals has a chance.

GOAL TRENDS - 62.5% over 2.5 goals at home. Average scoring 2.37, conceding 1.12 at home which becomes a naturalised over 2.5 goals. 7 of last 10 matches over 2.5 goals. Rosenborg have scored in last 4 matches. 10 of last 11 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 6 at home without a draw, 4 match home winning streak,

AWAY TEAM - ODD GRENLAND

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDDWLLW - inconsistent away form. Wins away to 11th, 12th adn 14th ( 2 1-0 wins) signals that Odd are comfortable against teams of relative similar ability. remember if Rosenborg won as many as 3 games in hand, they would be 2nd in the league! And odd have lost away to 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 7th , conceding 2 goals in each of those defeats. This is what Rosenborg should be capable of.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWWLLLLWDW - 7 losses in 9 matches against the top 7 sides indicates that odd struggle against the top half of the league. Remember that rosenborg are in a false position having played 18 matches to others' 20/21 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - 33% over 2.5 goals away from home, has seen 2 1-1 draws and 2 2-0 losses.

STREAKS - 4 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Rosenborg are in a false position having played 3 matches less than some and 2 less than others. They win those 3 in hand and they are 2nd for instance. Now Odd grenland have lost 7 of 9 matches against top 7 sides home and away, and lost away to 2nd, 3rd , 5th, and 7th. It would not be too much of a leap surely to put Rosenborg as a top 7 side? Inference therefore for a 2 goal loss for Odd with the potential for them to score one. Rosenborg on a winning streak at home too.

7pm - KR Reykjavik v Fram - 1.3 home - Icelandic league at soccerstats so I will investigate - 15/16 matches played too should inform us of good trends.
HEAD TO HEADS

29.05.2011	D1	Fram Reykjavik	1-2	KR Reykjavik
11.02.2011	CF	KR Reykjavik	0-0/p.5-3	Fram Reykjavik
19.08.2010	D1	KR Reykjavik	2-1	Fram Reykjavik
29.07.2010	Cup	KR Reykjavik	4-0	Fram Reykjavik
10.06.2010	D1	Fram Reykjavik	2-3	KR Reykjavik
14.02.2010	CF	Fram Reykjavik	2-4	KR Reykjavik

Nearly a clean sweep for KR

LEAGUE POSITION 1st v 11th of 12 - KR have a game in hand at the top and can extend their lead.

HOME TEAM - KR

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWDWWDD - 4 1-1's and a 2-2 amongst the draws.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWWDWWWWDWWWDD - 4 of the 5 draws have come against top 5, and 3 of those at home. Seem to beat the rest of the league. Makes that 1.3 of some appeal although I suspect the market will again be illiquid.

GOAL TRENDS -50/50 at home. Have scored in all matches this season so traders take note if KR concede first.2.12 on average scored at home, 1 conceded.
6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals, the others were 1-1 scorelines.

STREAKS - 8 at home without defeat - 15 overall without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - FRAM

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLDLWLD - sole away win v bottom side 1-0.Lost 1-0 to 2nd and 4th so could frustrate top side today?

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLLDWLLDDW - draws against 7th, 5th and beat 4th at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 25% over 2.5 goals away from home, so can be competitive away. 3 1-0 losses, 1 1-0 win, 1 0-0, 1 1-1 and 3-0 losses and 2-2 draws. Major trend towards few goals.

STREAKS - 3 overall without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - KR obviously the form team in this league. What do we make of the 2 1-0 losses for FRAM away to 2nd and 4th? 25% overs away from home could signal a tight match. 1-1 probably worse case scenario. I would expect an eventual KR 1-0 win.

8pm - Barcelona v Villarreal - 1.22 home - this is the SPL on a grander scale, by which I mean 2 teams vying for the title and it's basically the first to lose who will lose this title. Real Madrid imperous yesterday, routing Zaragoza 0-6 away from home. Barca must win this match already!

02.04.2011	D1	Villarreal CF	0-1	FC Barcelona
13.11.2010	D1	FC Barcelona	3-1	Villarreal CF
01.05.2010	D1	Villarreal CF	1-4	FC Barcelona
02.01.2010	D1	FC Barcelona	1-1	Villarreal CF
10.05.2009	D1	FC Barcelona	3-3	Villarreal CF

More high profile signings for Barca.
Only 1 loss at home last season, the famous loss against Hercules when the barca squad were on some meaningless friendly in Argentina representing Spain and Argentina if memory serves. They practically played that match with jetlag!
2.42 scored on average at home last season , 63% over 2.5 goals and squad strengthened by signings.
Barca score first in 84% of matches last season and led at halftime in 6 out of 10 matches.
Real put down a marker yesterday in a season which may hinge on the El Classico matches and goal difference?
12 home matches finished over 2.5 goals, 4 matches had 2 goals in them, so we can hope for over 2.5 goals for trading. It is likely to occur more often than not.
33 of 38 matches last season saw Barca matches go over 1.5 goals.

Quite simply a must win. A goals bet covers any potential shocks ( Rossi on fire for the Yellow Submarines) but this should be a home win to keep in Real Madrid's footsteps.
8pm - Shamrock Rovers v UCD - 1.2 home - irish Cup so no point doing any analysis - take the odds or leave the match alone. Both teams are in the same league.

845pm - Nacional v Benfica - 1.58 away - one of 4 likely to dominate Portugeuse football alongside Porto, Sporting and Braga.

22.01.2011	D1	SL Benfica	4-2	Nacional Madeira
21.08.2010	D1	Nacional Madeira	2-1	SL Benfica
14.03.2010	D1	Nacional Madeira	0-1	SL Benfica
03.01.2010	LC	SL Benfica	1-0	Nacional Madeira
26.10.2009	D1	SL Benfica	6-1	Nacional Madeira
02.05.2009	D1	Nacional Madeira	3-1	SL Benfica

Well, Nacional are competitive at home, and it's not coincidence. Consistently getting results at home in head to heads.2 wins from 3, and a small 0-1 loss.
Amazing season last season, where Benfica drew only 3 matches. Could this be a sign that they are all out, win or bust? Only one away draw last season. As with all non english leagues , I am not up with comings and goings in squad and management.
Benfica lost away to 1st, 4th, 5th , 6th last season ( Nacional were 6th)
Nacional only lost 4 at home last season, and 2 of those were 0-1. Likely this 1.58 layable initially, IF there is a move in the odds as it remains 0-0. Nacional could be tough to beat. This might be 0-0 halftime.
27% over 2.5 goals last season at home, and average 0.8 conceded at home for Nacional ( and anything under 1 is very good defensive work). Tough evening in store for Benfica.Porto have the only 100% record so far.

545 BANGOR ON DEE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Anna´s Arch, 3/1 Pampelonne, 100/30 Trackmate, 17/2 My Girl Millie, 20/1 Dessie Gray, 33/1 Best Excuse, 33/1 Future Dominion, 50/1 Darius Khan, 50/1 Deerhurst, 66/1 Kata Rock, 66/1 Lucky For Some.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very few to consider, and this may be safest left to ANNA'S ARCH, who left the impression there was still further improvement in him when making a successful debut under this rider at Perth nine days ago. Trackmate's second to dual summer scorer Bevnott last time marks him out as the likeliest threat, though he does have to respond the right way for the removal of blinkers. [Jeremy Grayson]

4 under 16/1 here in this conditional's bumper should dominate.

315 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Kid Suitor, 6/1 Hyperlink, 6/1 Wayne Manor, 10/1 Tushuk Tash, 12/1 Khan Of Khans, 20/1 Dubai Rythm, 20/1 Kingscombe, 33/1 Bathwick Street, 100/1 Recway Striker.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KID SUITOR (nap) sets the standard after finishing second on his debut and has a good chance to go one better. [Chris Wilson]

3 under 14/1 in this maiden. Fav one time outer with favourable first run. Can we trust a 2 year old on only 2nd ever run? But it is a Hannon/Hughes 2 year old!

350 CHEPSTOW

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Roedean, 4/1 Good Morning Star, 5/1 Brundon, 12/1 Abundantly, 12/1 Fleur De La Vie, 14/1 Johanna Fosie, 14/1 Little Dutch Girl, 33/1 Annaluna, 33/1 Sammie Fallon, 50/1 Kozmina Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most interesting of the newcomers are Brundon and Good Morning Star but ROEDEAN can make her experience tell.[Adrian Cook]

Plenty of debutants and some support it would seem for Fleur de la Vie ( 12/1 betting forecast into 5/1 live betting market) - despite all the newcomers, I like the experience of Roedean and again faith in Hannon/Hughes to at least get the place.

Small fields at the jumps venues put me off them so far.

550 DOWNPATRICK

ETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Warwickshire, 5/1 Super Oscar, 6/1 Well Mett, 8/1 Wee Doll, 10/1 All Honours, 12/1 Owning Hill, 16/1 Lizzies Boy, 16/1 Local Knowledge, 20/1 Misty Blue.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market should be a useful guide regarding the prospects of the four newcomers in the field but on overall form WARWICKSHIRE, runner-up at Tramore at his second attempt earlier this month, is taken over Super Oscar.
[Brian Fleming]

9 runner bumper and a price gapper with Nina Carberry onboard.

705 GALWAY

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Missy O´ Gwaun, 5/1 Louisville Lip, 13/2 Goldplated, 7/1 Virgil Earp, 8/1 Crying Aloud, 10/1 Horsewithnoname, 12/1 Neighbourly, 14/1 Teajaybe, 16/1 Driveheron.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The interesting one is MISSY O'GWAUN, who is certainly bred to be better than her current mark and the manner of her success at Tramore was encouraging with the future in mind. Crying Aloud can also make her presence felt.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Price gapper in an admittedly lowly handicap

415 HUNTINGDON

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Pippa Greene, 100/30 Bullet Man, 10/1 Samarinda, 12/1 Cape Dutch, 14/1 Captains Measure, 14/1 Dear Maurice, 16/1 Far Flung, 20/1 Wulfrida, 25/1 Durgan, 25/1 Rainsborough, 33/1 Bin End, 33/1 Brunton Blue, 100/1 Millers Crossing, 100/1 Starbird.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pippa Greene is the most likely winner but he did fail favourite backers last time and BULLET MAN is a feasible alternative. Paul Webber's Flat winner was admittedly disappointing at Sedgefield but not all horses take a liking to that place and he's given another chance.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

2 2nd places for the fav augurs well in this maiden hurdle where only 2 are under 10/1 in the betting forecast -Pippa remains odds on in the live betting. Of course assumption is that the horse will complete.

250 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 The Osteopath, 9/4 Bold Marc, 7/1 Master Of Dance, 14/1 Monthly Medal, 20/1 Dechiper, 20/1 Isheforreal, 50/1 Charity Fair.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bold Marc and The Osteopath should go well but NICHOLAS POCOCK is not out of it on these terms if turned out again after running respectably at Beverley yesterday.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 under 12/1 here in a now 8 runner race. This is a class 6 claimer so perhaps not an ideal race, but a good profiled race - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 12/1

325 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Position, 9/2 Quick Bite, 6/1 Alborz, 6/1 New Decade, 10/1 Loyal Master, 12/1 Mcvicar, 20/1 Flurry Of Hands.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POSITION (nap) is Sir Mark Prescott's only runner on the card and his chosen representative from two options at the five-day stage. It's hard to draw any firm conclusions from his maiden win but he has the build to carry top weight in this ground and his assured stamina (bred to stay at least 1m2f) could come in very handy. Alborz should make more of a race of it with a 17lb pull, while Quick Bite and Lady Layla could also be on competitive marks.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

A nursery ( or 2 year old handicap) and Prescott/Sanders market leader and only runner on the card must be mentioned. Again an ideal race as this is now a 7 runner race for 3 places with 3 under 10/1

SHORTLIST