19/7

I hope you can follow the logic of my selection today. Ekranas were 3-0 up against Valetta away from home , only to succumb to a 42nd minute goal and a 92nd minute penalty. This puts a gloss on a 3-2 scoreline, but importantly for us, it ensures the tie is still alive, and Ekranas with home advantage should surely put this tie to bed. Yes, admittedly, they need only a 0-0 or a 0-1 loss even to go through, but I am pinning my hopes on the initial 0-3 Ekranas away scoreline suggesting enough of a gulf in abilities to back them today at 1.36

*****ONE A DAY - 5pm - Ekranas v Valletta - back Ekranas in the match odds at 1.36 **** Now please take your cues from the home leg and if 2-0 up , trade out perhaps (just incase?)

There are safer bets today such as BATE at home v Linfield and Litex Lovech. And are Spurs a good speculative bet? After all they went down to a 93rd minute goals and surely will not tolerate 2 losses on the trot, even if admittedly today's match is meaningless?

Horse racing v tough today with soft at Yarmouth, small fields at Bangor. Perhaps In a Nutshell at Ballinrobe would be my choice, and again faith is a strong Irish jumps jockey in davey Russell






The 515 Yarmouth went to other than the fav, so I am glad I left alone. Giants Quest won for Pat Smullen. Elsewhere, Man City almost inevitably won 2-1, and Singapore won 3-2, but a no bet day for me.

12pm - Singapore U18 v Singapore U17 - 1.36 - any betting geniuses out there who want a fix, well they would engineer a tight win for Singapore u17 at 8/1 or bigger!!

1230pm - Tanjong Pagar v Albirex Niigata (S) - 1.25 away
HEAD TO HEADS
06.06.2011 D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 1-2 Albirex Niigata (S)
16.02.2011 D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 5-0 Tanjong Pagar Utd
21.07.2004 D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-3 Albirex Niigata (S)

Only 2 recent matches of interest. Albirex were 2-0 up in last match away from home.

LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 5th - with Woodlands, perennial bottom side, winning last match, Tanjong are warming up 12th place .A win will take Albirex 3rd, albeit they have played 21 games and 3 of top 4 have played 20, with the other side playing only 19.

HOME TEAM - TANJONG

RECENT HOME FORM -
09.07.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-0 Gombak United
01.07.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-1 Geylang United
27.06.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-2 Etoile FC (S)
06.06.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 1-2 Albirex Niigata (S)
30.05.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 1-3 Tampines Rovers
11.05.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 2-2 Singapore Armed Forces
25.04.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-5 Hougang United
12.04.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-1 Balestier Khalsa
31.03.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-0 Young Lions
18.03.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-6 Home United
04.03.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-0 Woodlands Wellington

Pretty conclusively crap! Draws against 11th, 10th, 8th, 4th.


RECENT FORM OVERALL -
09.07.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-0 Gombak United
05.07.2011 SIN D1 Balestier Khalsa 2-0 Tanjong Pagar Utd
01.07.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-1 Geylang United
27.06.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-2 Etoile FC (S)
19.06.2011 SIN D1 Young Lions 0-1 Tanjong Pagar Utd
06.06.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 1-2 Albirex Niigata (S)
30.05.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 1-3 Tampines Rovers
27.05.2011 SIN D1 Home United 3-1 Tanjong Pagar Utd
17.05.2011 SIN D1 Woodlands Wellington 0-1 Tanjong Pagar Utd
11.05.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 2-2 Singapore Armed Forces
25.04.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-5 Hougang United

Solitary win was a 1-0 ( 79th minute) against alternative bottom side Woodlands. A look at recent scorelines, and Tanjong tend to keep things tight until eventually succumbing. Perhaps a 0-0 back early doors in the hope that they can keep another first half tight.


GOAL TRENDS - 7 losses, 4 draws, 3 clean sheets - 0.36 scored, 2 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 13 home matches without a win.

AWAY TEAM - ALBIREX

RECENT AWAY FORM
13.07.2011 SIN D1 Singapore Armed Forces 2-1 Albirex Niigata (S)
04.07.2011 SIN D1 Gombak United 1-5 Albirex Niigata (S)
24.06.2011 SIN D1 Geylang United 1-0 Albirex Niigata (S)
06.06.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 1-2 Albirex Niigata (S)
15.05.2011 SIN D1 Tampines Rovers 3-1 Albirex Niigata (S)
18.04.2011 SIN D1 Hougang United 1-0 Albirex Niigata (S)
06.04.2011 SIN D1 Balestier Khalsa 0-1 Albirex Niigata (S)
26.03.2011 SIN D1 Young Lions 0-5 Albirex Niigata (S)
13.03.2011 SIN D1 Home United 2-1 Albirex Niigata (S)
21.02.2011 SIN D1 Woodlands Wellington 0-1 Albirex Niigata (S)

Not an away draw in sight for Albirex.Losses against 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th. Losses against 6th and 7th were 1-0's and both unfortunate ( Albirex miss a penalty for example and lose 1-0 to a penalty) Can we infer , therefore, that they tend to lose most readily to top 4 sides away and it is a case of bad luck if they lose against any of the top 4 ?

RECENT OVERALL FORM
13.07.2011 SIN D1 Singapore Armed Forces 2-1 Albirex Niigata (S)
07.07.2011 SIN D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 5-1 Hougang United
04.07.2011 SIN D1 Gombak United 1-5 Albirex Niigata (S)
28.06.2011 SIN D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 1-0 Balestier Khalsa
24.06.2011 SIN D1 Geylang United 1-0 Albirex Niigata (S)
12.06.2011 SIN Cup Albirex Niigata (S) 3-0 South Melbourne
06.06.2011 SIN D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 1-2 Albirex Niigata (S)
31.05.2011 SIN D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 4-2 Young Lions
21.05.2011 SIN D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 2-1 Home United
15.05.2011 SIN D1 Tampines Rovers 3-1 Albirex Niigata (S)
10.05.2011 SIN D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 5-0 Woodlands Wellington
28.04.2011 SIN D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 6-3 Singapore Armed Forces

again a case of "SPOT THE DRAW" with losses v 1st, 4th, 7th and wins in their other 9 matches.


GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 5 losses, no draws away. 3 clean sheet, 1.7 scored, 1.1 conceded on average away from home.

STREAKS - 14 without a draw away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - whopping stat is that final stat - no draw in 14 away for Albirex, and as they are playing bottom side today, and a draw is not expected, this should default therefore to the Albirex win? Albirex only really lost to top 4 away . tanjong have lost all at home bar draws v 4th, 8th, 10th ,11th.

5pm - BATE Borisov v Linfield - 1.11 home - CHampions League qualifier 2nd leg. 1-1 from the first and BATE needed a penalty to gain parity. They have that important away goal and the market expects an easy home win. BATE have scored 4,1,5,2,2 in their last 5 home matches. Linfield have won their last 6 away matches in their league, but surely the Belarussian league is far stronger.

5pm - Ekranas v Valletta - 1.36 home - 2-3 to Ekranas in the first leg belies a relative ease with their win. 3-1 until a 93rd minute penalty for Valetta. 3 away goals means that Ekranas will go through with a 0-0, 0-1 loss and really Ekranas only need to score a goal to realistically put this tie to bed.


6pm - Litex Lovech v Mogren - 1.19 home - Bulgaria v Montenegro and Mogren took the lead in the first half until being pegged back by 2 77+minute goals from Litex. They have the away goal advantage and a 0-0 or 1-0 will put Litex through with ease, as with the latter scoreline, Mogren would have to score 3 away goals to go through. 1.19 suggest an easier time of it at home for Litex. A tie still very much alive so a home side priced short should be dependable.

7pm - Aberdeen v Villarreal - 1.7 away - I think Villareal are doing the rounds of friendlies at the moment and any semblance of a first team will have Aberdeen for breakfast. But likely changes given their schedule. A 4-3 win for UCD Dublin ( Villareal late own goal gives UCD the win) perhaps exemplifies the Villareal Mentality on their Celtic adventure. Will they be as generous with Aberdeen? Can we expect goals? 1.7 is a very tempting price isn't it for quite clearly a superior team, but as this is a friendly, there may be a story behind such generous odds.

7pm - Hajduk Split v Sibenik - 1.24 home - Croatian top flight starting today.
05.12.2010 D1 HNK Sibenik 1-3 Hajduk Split
08.08.2010 D1 Hajduk Split 2-0 HNK Sibenik
05.05.2010 Cup HNK Sibenik 0-2 Hajduk Split
21.04.2010 Cup Hajduk Split 2-1 HNK Sibenik
17.04.2010 D1 HNK Sibenik 0-1 Hajduk Split
18.10.2009 D1 Hajduk Split 0-1 HNK Sibenik

League wise, fairly good wins last twice. 2-0 and 1-3 for Hajduk. 2nd v 12th in the league from last season. 10wins, 3 draws, 2 losses at home for Hajduk. 3 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses away for Sibenik last season. And that is all we really have to go on as a new season begins.
Only 2 wins away in their last 12 in all competitions for Sibenik came against 14th and 16th ( of 16).
2 draws, 2 wins, 2 losses at end of last season for Hajduk BUT remember the time of year. Attitudes at the end of a season may produce an under performing side?


715pm - Plzen v FC Pyunik - 1.19 home - 4-0 to Plzen away and this tie is all over unless FC Pyunik win 4-0 or 5-0. Plzen clearly dominant and we may see a weakened side out - I am just guessing.

715pm - Orlando Pirates (SA) v Tottenham - 1.68 away - Tottenham lost 1-0 to the Kaiser Chiefs last time out in this South African tour, and logic dictates that Harry will not want another defeat for Spuds , if only to save face. 2-1 in head to heads from 2007. Poor old Spuds. The 1-0 goal came in the 92nd minute and seems to have just been unlucky. I would suspect Spurs and a 0-0 insurance might work in this match.

730pm - Blackpool v Rangers - a well matched match but dare we chance goals here given Blackpool's rep last year at home. Purely a suggestion as we do not know teams ( and remember Charlie Adam is now a scouser)

730pm - Wisla Krakow v Skonto Riga - 1.2 home - 0-1 to Wisla and a key away goal, but at 0-1 it is all to play for and the 1.2 quote suggests the Poles will put this Champions League tie to bed although the goal was an own goal!! The dynamic of the match may signal under 2.5 goals or a back of 0-0 if the away scoreline suggested a tight match. Skonto are bang in the tie and need a simple 1-0 to extend the match.

745pm - Skendija v Partizan Belgrade - 1.45 away - 4-0 from the home leg and 1 goal for partizan should be enough to kill this tie.

520 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 In A Nutshell, 5/2 Cumulus Nimbus, 11/2 Alamanda, 8/1 Rusty Halo, 8/1 Super Collider, 12/1 Dalkeith, 20/1 Coxwain, 20/1 Live Trade, 20/1 Much Acclaimed, 25/1 Hey Bosco.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Though his jumping ability has to be taken on trust CUMULUS NIMBUS will be hard to beat if making an effective transition. He is a hopeful choice to beat obvious alternatives In A Nutshell and Alamanda. [Alan Sweetman]

In a Nutshell has Davey Russell onboard, and has come 2nd last 2 hurdles races. Looks a strong contender in a race where 5 are under 14/1

550 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Seader, 6/1 Minella King, 8/1 Bran Castle, 10/1 Scopey, 12/1 Rural Retreat, 14/1 Simon Says, 25/1 Imperial Joey, 25/1 Whiskey And Red, 33/1 Alexs Big Decision, 33/1 Arderin, 33/1 Kelsey´s Girl, 50/1 Almirante Brown, 50/1 Annalast, 66/1 Iamonthefastlane, 100/1 Dark Solace.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This should be quite straightforward for SEADER, whose two seconds at Punchestown in May make him a cut above these rivals. Minella King is a possible forecast option. [Alan Sweetman]

A case of selective memory loss sees Seader 2/5 - - - 5/1 here. What about his disappointing 4th last time out when he was off the bridle a long way out? It seems to have been conveniently forgotten in favour of his previous 2 runs. A risk in a maiden hurdle and more layable than backable at the price surely .

850 BALLINROBE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Some Fiddle, 9/2 Super Oscar, 10/1 Charlie Swift, 14/1 Lady Brown, 16/1 Sir Cool, 16/1 The Fox Tully, 20/1 Native Wolf, 20/1 Time Max, 20/1 Whynotgiveup, 25/1 Cordashri, 25/1 Deep Quay, 25/1 Jamesson, 33/1 Tristan Shout.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very little form of note with SOME FIDDLE the standout and representing a powerful trainer/jockey combination will be a very short price. Super Oscar may improve enough for her debut effort to chase the favourite home. [Alan Hewison]

4/6 - - - 7/1 simply because of Nina Carberry/Gordon Elliott in this bumper where the market nearer to 850pm will reveal all.

BANGOR is all sub 8 runner jumps races. No thanks.

630 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Pint Size, 3/1 Auntie Joy, 12/1 Ciara Boo, 12/1 Miss Medici, 12/1 Spring Daisy, 20/1 Johnny Cavagin.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PINT SIZE is returned to a much easier level after running well in the face of a very stiff task in a 5f handicap here last week. She is the one to beat, though Auntie Joy should also be involved.[Emily Weber]

2 under 12/1 in this 5 furlong polytrack 2 year old claimer - YUK!

730 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Quails Hollow, 2/1 Zenarinda, 8/1 Cluain Dara, 12/1 Fair Dinkum, 12/1 Frolic Along, 25/1 Delight Of The Eye, 66/1 Miss Kessie, 66/1 Seawood, 100/1 Micky´s Bird.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: QUAILS HOLLOW (nap)'s Chester third has been boosted by the two in front both winning handicaps off marks in the low 70s since and he looks the one to beat now upped in trip. Zenarinda, who comes out level with the selection on official ratings in receipt of the sex allowance, is the obvious danger.[Graham Wheldon]

4 under 33/1 here and can we trust Southwell newcomer QUails Hollow to reproduce solid turf form on this very unique surface?

415 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Chiefdom Prince, 9/2 Indian Emperor, 11/2 Below Zero, 7/1 Jack My Boy, 10/1 Cardinal, 16/1 Capone.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHIEFDOM PRINCE was beaten 4l when squeezed out at Ascot last time, but that form has been well advertised since and this half-brother to dual 6f Listed winner Rising Shadow still has plenty of potential as a handicapper. Below Zero gave a hint of a revival last time and could be a factor if taking another move back in the right direction, while unexposed Indian Emperor could get back on track with cheekpieces applied.[David Moon]

6 runners for 3 places and Chiefdom Prince is still market leader. Has a much better chance of placing with this reduced field, but how will he cope with soft ground?

He has come 2nd in October 2010 in Soft.

515 YARMOUTH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Susan Stroman, 3/1 Astromagick, 11/2 Talbot Green, 8/1 Hoofprintinthesnow, 12/1 Little Jazz, 14/1 Investment World, 14/1 Snow Hill, 25/1 Grecian Goddess.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUSAN STROMAN (nap) found a big surge of improvement when powering clear over 1m6f at Wolverhampton last week. She looks well treated under a penalty and should be hard to beat if repeating the form back over a shorter trip on turf. The one that is feared most is Astromagick, who chased home a handicap blot at Folkestone last time. [David Moon]

7 runners now and 3 places still. 11/10 fav 11/10 - - 3/1 - - - 7/1 the front 3 but again we have the ? over ability to handle soft ground.

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Tanjong Pagar v Albirex Niigata (S) - 1.25 away - message too late for this match - Albiex inability to draw should prompt the away win given Tanjong have not won away

5pm - BATE Borisov v Linfield - 1.11 home - best to focus on matches whose 2nd leg is still alive. Linfield likely to succumb away.

5pm - Ekranas v Valletta - 1.36 home - 3 away goals should be enough but the tie is still alive and the 2-3 away scoreline is not wholly reflective of Ekranas dominance. 3-1 for a long time. This could be a good opportunity to back Ekranas at a decent enough price at home against, let's face it, a MALTESE side!!

6pm - Litex Lovech v Mogren - 1.19 home - 1-2 from the first leg leaves this leg still alive. And market makers expect home advantage to really count for Litex today.

715pm - Orlando Pirates (SA) v Tottenham - 1.68 away - now Spuds went down to a 93rd minute winner from Kaiser Chiefs and instinct tells me Sir Harry would not want 2 losses on the trot regardless of the meaninglessness of the match.

520 BALLINROBE - In a nutshell has been 2nd last twice under today's great irish jockey and should be competitive again ( caveat as ever - clear round required) - wholly illiquid market at present

730 SOUTHWELL - 4 under 33/1 and Quails Hollow a good placer? But a debutant at SOuthwell's unique surface ( described variously as running on very soft/heavy turf ground). Probability suggest a place but dare we risk debutant maidens to this surface?

415 YARMOUTH - soft ground not withstanding, Chiefdom Prince, original favourite, has only 3 to beat to place in this 50/50 race and is a relatively generous 1.2 to place.









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