Wednesday 1 June 2011

1/6

Andy Murray won 7-5 in the final set and the 1.37 most welcome .

*****ONE A DAY - 545 FONTWELL - Tony Donizzo to place only****** - has experience and McCoy on now. Better to bet with Betfair SP or wait til 545




HEAD TO HEADS






Generally SAF have the upper hand but Balastier did win 2-0 only 2 matches ago and away from home.
LEAGUE POSITION
- 3rd v 8th


HOME TEAM - SAF
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWDW - recent loss to Tampines Rovers
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWWDLDWW - recent loss and draw were both coupon busters but back to winning ways recently
GOAL TRENDS - average 2.17 scored at home and 0.67 conceded away.
STREAKS - 3 at home without a loss
AWAY TEAM - BALASTIER
RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDWLLL - losses against TAmpines and Home United away where they conceded 5 goals in each match - armed forces are 3rd
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLDLWWLLLW - wins against 9th, 11th and 12th ( 12th is bottom side) so no real concern to SAF
GOAL TRENDS - 1.14 scored away and 2 conceded away on average
STREAKS - 3 away without a win, 4 away without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Armed Forces were recent coupon busters with an unexpected 2-2 draw with 2nd bottom but that was away from home. Their opponents have conceded 5 goals exactly twice against 1st and 2nd in the league which augurs well for 3rd placed S.A.F. Are S.A.F. over a recent blip which saw them concede the 6 goals and also draw as mentioned above? if so, then this should be a comfortable afternoon ( evening) for them.


430 - PK-35 v JIPPO - 1.4 home - Finnish 2nd Division slightly stretching my sphere of knowledge

7pm - Ukraine v Uzbekistan - 1.3 home


HEAD TO HEADS
22.08.2007FRLUkraine2-1Uzbekistan

2-0 to Ukraine back in another friendly in 2007 saw a 90th minute consolation so the scoreline belies the apparent ease of the victory.

LEAGUE POSITION - Irrelevant
HOME TEAM - UKRAINE
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWDDL - all friendlies since 2010 and an impressive draw against the incomparible Dutch 1-1. Recent loss was 2-0 to Italy.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDDWDLDDDL - losses to Brazil and Italy not too surprising. All of these matches have been friendlies and the general trend , outside the top international sides, is for Ukraine not to lose.
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS - 6 without a win, 3 at home without a win
AWAY TEAM - UZBEKISTAN
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLLDLWDWWLL - let's look at the wins - against Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.And the losses - Albania, Armenia ( all of the poor sides beginning with A - they have not played Arsenal yet!)
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLWDWWDWLLL - recent losses against Australia ( 6-0), South Korea ( 3-2 but South Korea were 3-0 up and the next goal was an Uzbeki penalty) and 1-0 Montenegro ( 90th minute loser)
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS - 2 away without a win, 4 away without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - as ever we need to excersise extreme caution in friendlies, but Uzbekistan are poor and should lose away to a Ukraine side if the latter are full strength and take the game seriously.
We also have difficulty in comparing form as opponents are so difficult. Only recent losses for Ukraine though were against Italy and Brazil. Priced about right surely


730pm - San Marino U21 v Bosnia U21 - 1.1 away

Tough for the Bosnians last time out with only a 2-0 win, the 2nd goal coming in the 87th minute. These under 21 matches have been great for enhanced bettors ( Turks 1-0 down to Montenegro yesterday eventually won 3-1) and that 1.1 is more layable than backable with a minimal liability


3am - Mexico v New Zealand - 1.32 home - remember New Zealand in the World Cup - no pushovers, and this Mexico side are hardly world beaters themselves which makes the 1.32 layable initially.


HEAD TO HEADS
04.03.2010FRLMexico2-0New Zealand

Chicharito on the scoresheet in a comfortable enough win.

LEAGUE POSITION - irrelevant - international friendly
HOME TEAM - MEXICO
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWLDLWDWWDD - last 4 draws all score draws and 3 of them were 1-1's, including one against Spain ( but put in the context of Spain winning the World Cup just before!) Losses against Ecuador ( friendly) and Uruguay( World CuP) makes for a decent enough home record in friendlies.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWDWWDD - all of the last 8 matches overall have come at home.
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS - 6 without a loss overall - 6 home games without a loss
AWAY TEAM - NEW ZEALAND - boosted by the World Cup?
RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLLDDD - 2 of the last 3 draws occured in the World Cup. Unlikely to win, but could threaten a draw?

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLDDDDLD - again draws prevalent and 3 of those draws were in the World Cup with one against Italy.
GOAL TRENDS
STREAKS - 8 without a win overall - 5 without a win away -
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - have New Zealand set a higher standard for themselves since the World Cup. Will the drawitis strike tonight? Surely Chicarito is too classy for that lumbering defence? A lay of Mexico early on or a back of 0-0 to trade might be wise here.


FRENCH OPEN - 215pm - Nadal v Soderling - 1.36 NADAL - looks a great price considering all the specials about Nadal to win the Tournament. Likely to be a "tough it out" match this one with Nadal's price likely to rise on some occasion during the match.

220 CARTMEL

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Beau Fighter, 5/2 Benbens, 4/1 Hunters Belt, 8/1 Mut´ab, 16/1 Grethel, 20/1 Parky, 20/1 Talk Of Saafend, 25/1 Itstooearly, 100/1 Sposalizio.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a long way from Sussex but Gary Moore appears to have unearthed a suitable opening for BEAU FIGHTER to open his account over hurdles. Benbens is feared most, though he'll almost certainly want further than this in time.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 under 16/1 here to dominate?


535 CARTMEL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ardesia, 6/1 Arisea, 6/1 General Eliott, 8/1 Turbo Shandy, 10/1 Heart Of Dubai, 10/1 Nisaal, 10/1 Red Skipper, 14/1 Man Of Principles, 20/1 Lets Go Girls, 20/1 Royal Flynn, 25/1 Endeavor, 33/1 Castletown Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: General Eliott is an interesting runner on this handicap debut but he may struggle to concede 14lb to in-form course specialist ARDESIA (nap), who bids to emulate last year's feat of winning here on the Saturday before following up under a penalty (from the same marks as this year) in this race. [Richard Young]

General Eliot is now 3/1 and the market mover here. Slight risk with this race as it is a conditional jockey's Handicap Hurdle.

300 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Teenage Kicks, 2/1 Kasban, 4/1 Inner Steel, 10/1 Chicharito, 12/1 Cunning Plan, 20/1 Twentyten, 33/1 Colonel Henry, 33/1 Kaygeekay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to concern the two previous winners, with KASBAN narrowly preferred to Teenage Kicks. He may be racing on less favourable terms but he ran well in a better contest last time whereas Teenage Kicks won a conditional jockey's contest and a mark of 120 looks a bit harsh.[Stuart Redding]

8 runners and 3 places always worth investigating. This is another perfect place only race with 4 runners only under 28/1 Teenage kicks is now odds on, and along with Kasban are the 2 to focus on.

515 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Themanfromfraam, 7/1 Spot The Ball, 8/1 Sovereign Spirit, 9/1 Karshaan, 20/1 Tavalu, 25/1 Galant Eye, 25/1 Mrs Peacock, 33/1 Jessica.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THEMANFROMFRAAM is a serious blot on the handicap. Sovereign Spirit is best placed to take advantage if the selection is still feeling the effects of Sunday's win.[Stuart Redding]

The fav is now 3/10 and the market expects another easy win, only 3 days after his previous win.

4 under 20/1 and 8 runners means that each way speculators can have a go at any of the 3 others under 20/1

545 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Tony Dinozzo, 7/2 Chuckery, 5/1 Titch Strider, 7/1 Chartplan, 10/1 Tinagenic, 16/1 Sovereigns Legacy, 50/1 Cariboo Lady, 66/1 Soitsakai, 66/1 Thunder On.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nicky Henderson and AP McCoy have a 33% strike-rate when they team up in bumpers and they have another decent chance with TONY DINOZZO (nap), who could improve on this first outing under an experienced partner. Titch Strider looks the best each-way alternative.[Stuart Redding]

4 under 16/1 and a favourite partnership with a 1 in 3 chance of winning ( never mind placing!) Very interesting then this Tony Dinozzo

310 NOTTINGHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Bear Behind, 7/2 Justineo, 11/2 Beau Mistral, 10/1 Master Of Ages, 25/1 Mount Mcleod.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BEAR BEHIND showed plenty of speed when a promising second to a useful Royal Ascot bound rival on debut at Folkestone last Thursday. He sets a clear standard and should be hard to beat for an in-form yard which is 10-33 with 2yos this season. The one to check in the market is newcomer Justineo who is out of a half-sister to classy prolific 5f-7f winner Galeota. [David Moon]

Now 4 runners with the outsider a non runner - surely this affords Bear Behind a great place only opportunity at least? Maidens on only 2nd run could still be learning of course but a 50/50 chance of placing.

345 NOTTINGHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Kepler´s Law, 7/2 Brezza Di Mare, 15/2 Investment World, 8/1 Peira, 12/1 Dark Dune, 12/1 Mina´s Boy, 20/1 C P Joe, 25/1 Hartforth, 25/1 High Fallutin.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KEPLER'S LAW looked a completely different proposition on 1m4f handicap debut when powering clear at Chepstow last week. This further step up in trip should work for him and he could take some stopping under a penalty. The chief threat is Brezza Di Mare, who was a much improved second in a 1m2f maiden last time and should appreciate another step up in trip on handicap debut. [David Moon]

Price gapper in a class 5 0-70 handicap and could be the start of a nice run for Kepler's Law?

415 NOTTINGHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Al Zir, 13/8 Border Patrol, 11/2 Balcarce Nov, 10/1 Vitznau.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AL ZIR and Border Patrol have to prove their wellbeing but it would be no surprise to see them fight out the finish. The former is preferred on the basis that he retains potential to develop into a top-quality performer.[Chris Wilson]

Now Border patrol is out, this is a 3 runner race and surely Al Zir has an outstanding place only chance ( although likely to be reflected in the live betting market.)

640 RIPON

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Right Result, 4/1 Rivington, 5/1 Giorgio´s Dragon, 10/1 Always Et Toujours, 10/1 Iffraam, 10/1Travis County, 14/1 Forster Street, 16/1 Pontius Pilate, 20/1 One New Cat, 20/1 Regal Acclaim, 25/1 Fifteentwo, 33/1 Optimum Rose, 100/1 Isolde´s Return.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RIGHT RESULT holds a Group 2 entry in Ireland and showed distinct promise at Salisbury despite failing to justify odds-on favouritism. Giorgio's Dragon is interesting having also shaped encouragingly in a maiden at the Dante meeting and yet Paul Hanagan prefers Rivington, which clearly brings him into the equation.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4/5 - - - - 7/1 price gapper this Right Result - the market really fancies him in this 13 runner 2 year old maiden, despite only the single run ( the Hannon Factor?)

630 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Zabarajad, 11/2 Advenio, 6/1 Acts Out Loud, 6/1 Ma Browne, 12/1 Glanusk, 14/1 Back Burner, 14/1Bankroll, 20/1 Alnashmy, 20/1 Can We Dare, 20/1 Catadalya, 33/1 Kalanore, 50/1 Apache Gold, 50/1 Great Companion, 50/1 Hill Of Content, 50/1 Ibiza Diamond, 50/1 The Four Elms.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The market should be very informative regarding the prospects of newcomers' Acts Out Loud, Advenioand Ma Browne but with a rating of 105 coming into this it looks a nice opportunity for ZABARAJAD to deservedly open his account dropping down in class since he was sent off fourth favourite in the Irish 2,000 Guineas won by Roderic O'Connor. [Brian Fleming]

Wow! 4th fav in the Irish 2000 Guineas has Murtagh onboard and warm order for this maiden.Quite naturally 3/10 now

800 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Bondage, 11/2 Perfect Gemstone, 8/1 Glamorous, 10/1 Regresa A Mi, 12/1 Cry For The Moon, 12/1Gypsie Queen, 12/1 Hassanali, 12/1 Melodie D´amour, 12/1 Paramount, 14/1 Gra Geal Mo Chroi, 14/1 Leah Claire, 14/1 Miranda´s Girl, 14/1 Taralga, 20/1 Chevalier Country, 20/1 Galakina, 20/1 Laurel Creek, 20/1 Scots Gaelic, 20/1 Surrey Spinner.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BONDAGE [NAP] was a convincing winner at Ballinrobe over 1m6f on Monday evening and turning out again quickly dropping down in trip is difficult to oppose under his mandatory penalty given he has been raised a stone following his recent win. Perfect Gemstone and Glamorous are two interesting handicap recruits with course winner Paramount another with place prospects. [Brian Fleming]

Handicap Blot? 4 places as we have 21 runners.


SHORTLIST

1230 - Singapore Armed Forces v Balestier Khalsa - 1.23 home - Balastier's recent wins have come against the bottom sides, but then again S.A.F. drew 2-2 with 2nd bottom and recently conceded 6 - are these shocks over now back at home?

7pm - Ukraine v Uzbekistan - 1.3 home - a friendly and betting blind as we do not know team news, but a first team from Ukraine should dispatch this lot as easily as they did in 2007.

FRENCH OPEN - 215pm - Nadal v Soderling - 1.36 NADAL - a mighty battle in prospect but surely the clay King Nadal will come through on top. The price is high as Soderling has beaten nadal at the French Open.

220 CARTMEL - Beau Fighter is 1.19 to place currently ( illiquid) in a race where 4 are under 20/1 - Novice Hurdle so beware the Fashionable gal factor - a fall is only a fence away!

300 FONTWELL - another perfect place only race this one. Why? 8 runners - 3 places - 4 horses only under 33/1 - Teenage Kicks 1.11 to place and McCoy's kasban 1.24 to place.

515 FONTWELL - Handicap blot Themanfromafraam only ran 3 days ago and today is 2 miles 6 - 1.32 the win and 1.11 to place

545 FONTWELL - McCoy replaces inexperienced conditional in a race where 4 currently are under 18/1 ( I say currently as this is a bumper and a late afternoon bumper to boot and the market is likely to have a say) Tony Donizzo has already had 2 decent efforts in bumpers and should place with no obstacles to overcome. Could be a decent enough place only price.

310 NOTTINGHAM - 4 horses, one 14/1, 2 places and a strong market leader in Bear Behind should have an outstanding chance of finishing in the first 2.

A 2 year old maiden race and only 1 run - experienced enough to replicate form?

415 NOTTINGHAM - 3 horses and 2 places and of course never straightforward - Al Zir would be my pick here but was unbelievably bad on reappearance in a listed race last time out. Still, with a poor performance,. will he get beaten by 2 others in a 3 horse race.

630 TIPPERRARY - surely 4th in the betting in the 2000 Guineas has too much for this lot? 1.06 to place is giving nothing away - 1.3 for the win?

800 TIPPERARY - Bondage 9 lb well in ? 4 to be placed so we have the insurance of the 4th place


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

7pm - Ukraine v Uzbekistan - 1.3 home - 6 draws in last 9 a concern for Ukraine but only 2 losses recently came at the hands of Brazil and Italy . 3 wins in last 7 for Uzbeks but they were against very poor sides. Team news ideal for the Ukrainians as we want to see a solid First team as a win should then be easy

220 CARTMEL - Beau Fighter has an outstanding place only chance if he completes - around 1.19 - may need to take Betfair SP. No jumps form since November but won 3 times on All Weather so fit.

300 FONTWELL - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 33/1 - Teenage Kicks 1.11 to place - chance McCoy's Kasban at 1.24 to place? Clear round of course.

545 FONTWELL - surely McCoy on Tony Dinozzo must have an outstanding chance of placing here ( slight risk as this is a bumper and the market may reveal the proverbial dark horses). Currently 4 under 18/1.

310 NOTTINGHAM - Bear Behind - trust this 2 year old? Only one run - 4 horses and 2 places so we have a 50/50 chance.

630 TIPPERARY - Zabarajad should have a superb chance of winning - has been plying his trade in much much better company.








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