Monday 27 June 2011

27/6

The best profile race today is the 445 Pontefract and York Glory - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 14/1 and a fav 10/11 - - - 4/1 price gapper.
Slight niggle re ground today as it might not be totally suitable to York Glory ( hint he may like cut in the ground better ) but looks a good probability race.
Etoile should not lose in the 1230 kick off and Elfsborg have scored 2 or more at home in all home matches and are playing a side who have lost against 1st, 4th, 6th ,8th and 11th without scoring and have only scored 1 goal in a 1-0 away win against Trelleborg.
Safest bet of the day is Befortyfour at Wolves who could be backed along with Djokovic at 1.11?

***** ONE A DAY - 445 PONTEFRACT - YORK GLORY TO PLACE - currently illiquid so please wait til nearer the off or take Betfair SP***** Hope that this race goes as per the betting. 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 14/1 and an odds on shot with a great probability chance of placing.


World Cup halted German ladies scoring their usual bucket loads. 2-0 up until a late Canadian goal but a win all the same.

1230pm - Geylang v Woodlands Wellington - 1.33 home - the weekly "let's oppose Woodlands" bet

HEAD TO HEADS

13.04.2011D1Woodlands Wellington2-2Geylang United
06.09.2010D1Geylang United0-1Woodlands Wellington
13.06.2010D1Woodlands Wellington0-0Geylang United
10.04.2010D1Geylang United1-0Woodlands Wellington
20.10.2009D1Woodlands Wellington0-1Geylang United
15.07.2009D1Geylang United4-0Woodlands Wellington

A run of very tight matches ended with a 2-2 in April this year. Geylang took the lead. Woodlands got a penalty. Woodlands scored an 86th minute apparent winner, then consented to score an own goal to make it 2-2 in the 89th minute! It just looked like one of those games!


LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 12th after 17 matches.

HOME TEAM - GEYLANG

RECENT HOME FORM - LWLWWLDWW - losses v 2nd, 8th and 9th. Draw was a 3-3 v 10th which needed 2 penalties, the 2nd in 93rd minute to salvage what looks an undeserved draw.

Wins have come against 4th, 7th, 11th, 6th and 3rd. The wins against 6th and 3rd, most recently, were 1-0's and both penalties.In fact, in their last 3 league matches, Geylang have scored 4 penalties from 5 goals. This might hint at a weakness in attack if they cannot score from open play.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDLLDLLWWW - sudden resurgence last 3 matches v 6th, 7th and 3rd - 2 1-0's as mentioned above v suspect form as scored from penalties.Recent losses against 9th, 4th, 1st, 2nd,

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins 3 losses, 1 draw at home. Average 1 scored, 0.88 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 6 without a draw in all competitions. 3 without a draw at home.

AWAY TEAM - WOODLANDS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLLLWL - draw was 0-0 v 11th ( of 12) and win was 1-2 v 10th in a messy match -1-1 half time, Young Lions get a man sent off 2nd half. Woodlands miss the penalty then score an 85th minute winner. Woodlands have failed to score in 7 of their last 8 away matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLLLLWLLLL - draw and win explained above. Have conceded 5 goals in last 4 matches ( 3 league and one Cup match).

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 6 losses, 1 draw, 1 clean sheet away. Score 0.25, concede 2.63 on average away from home.

STREAKS - 7 away without a draw, have failed to score in 7 of last 8 away matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I am not overtly convinced by Geylang - 4 of their last 5 league goals have been penalties. And there is a smattering of red cards and "incidents" in their matches which might catch them out. So perhaps this very short price is worth laying. Last 2 matches were 1-0 wins with, yes , 2 penalties. Woodlands beat 10th, drew with 11th, lost 2-0 away to 9th ( 2 late 2nd half goals), and are playing 8th today. They recently played 1st, 2nd and 4th and conceded 5 in each of those matches, but I feel Geylang will not score anywhere near that today. Perhaps lay any unquoted in the correct score, and back 0-0 initially and hold out for as long as you dare? Possibility of a 0-0 at half time. Definitely not a team I would back at 1.33 today.

1230pm - Tanjong Pagar v Etoile - 1.33 away

HEAD TO HEADS

15.06.2011CupEtoile FC (S)2-0Tanjong Pagar Utd
22.03.2011D1Etoile FC (S)3-0Tanjong Pagar Utd

One cup, one league, both this year and both clean sheets and at home. Etoile are away though today.

LEAGUE POSITION - 11th ( of 12) v 5th - Etoile have only played 13 games ( and are 5th!! when all others have played 17)

HOME TEAM - TANJONG - - RECENT HOME FORM - DLDLLDLL - draws against 12th, 10th and 3rd. The latter was a 2-2 which took a S.A.F. own goal for Tanjong to equalise. Losses against 1st, 9th, 6th ,2nd ,4th and are playing 5th ( with 4 games in hand) Augurs well for Etoile today.

?

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLLLDWLLLW - wins were 1-0 against bottom ( 79th minute winner) and 1-0 against 10th ( opponents got a red card and Tanjong scraped an 89th minute winner) Draws against 10th and the anomolous result against S.A.F.(3rd)

GOAL TRENDS 0 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, 2 clean sheets at home. 0.5 scored , 2.38 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 6 without a draw overall, 10 at home without a win.

AWAY TEAM - ETOILE

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWWWDW - loss against 7th saw the match 0-0 until the 87th minute when opponents got a red card and opponents scored a 91st minute winner!. Draw was 1-1 against 3rd placed.Wins against 8th, 4th, 12th, 1st, 9th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWLWDWWL - 2 postponed matches there as well. Losses v 2nd in the league 2-1 saw Etoile leading 1-0 and 2 very late goals. Recent loss was 1-2 at home v 10th On the 15th June, played today's opponents in the Cup and won 2-0 but yet to play them away.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw, 4 clean sheets away.1.57 scored, 0.43 conceded on average. Look to be strong defensively away?

STREAKS - 4 overall without a draw. 5 away without a loss.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Etoile are 5th but with about 4 games in hand, so they are realistic contenders for the title. 2 home ties in head to heads have been clear cut, 3 and 2 scored to no reply. Tanjong are 11th for a reason - 2 wins, 3 draws, 12 defeats. Tanjong have not won at home this season and the best they can hope for is a draw. Losses against 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th ,9th augurs well against a 5th placed side with 4 games in hand! 2.38 on average conceded at home, and 0.5 scored which should not trouble etoile. Only 1 loss for Etoile was an 87th minute winner for opposition away. 4 wins and a draw in last 5 away.Wins against 1st, 4th, 8th, 9th, 12th augurs well against 11th.

Played today's opponents, albeit at home, as recently as 15th June in the Cup and won 2-0. I expect this could be an away win to nil today, worse case a draw.

2pm - Japan (W) v New Zealand (W) - 1.24 Japan - like the under 17 World Cup, look for surprises where there shouldn't be any.
4pm - Alania Vladikavkaz v Kamaz - 1.51 home - Alania I researched last week so I have some familiarity with it.Last venture into this 2nd tier in Russia was successful

HEAD TO HEADS

13.07.2010CupKAMAZ N. Chelny0-0/p.2-4Alania Vladikavkaz
12.08.2009D2Alania Vladikavkaz2-3KAMAZ N. Chelny
08.04.2009D2KAMAZ N. Chelny1-1Alania Vladikavkaz
29.07.2008D2Alania Vladikavkaz0-1KAMAZ N. Chelny

no real recent league form. 2 tight 2009 encounters and a recent tight Cup match in July last year.


LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 4th. Quite tight points wise too

HOME TEAM - ALANIA

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWDW - quite a sequence which, if upheld, results in a D for Draw today. Wins against 6th, 5th, 20th, 3rd. Recent 4-0 against 3rd place v messy with 1-0 halftime. Own goal 2nd half makes it 2-0, penalty makes it 3-0, man sent off for opponents, then another goal for 4-0.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWDWDDWW - unbeaten recent run. Draws against 13th, 15th, 12th ,11th - 2 0-0's and 2 1-1's

GOAL TRENDS - 4 wins, 0 losses, 3 draws, 5 clean sheets - 1.53 scored, 0.35 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 11 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - KAMAZ

RECENT AWAY FORM- DDDWLWW - draws were against 7th, 6th and 13th , 2 1-1's and a 0-0.Wins against 5th, 15th and 16th, scoring 3,3 and 2 goals. Loss was 1-0 v bottom side!

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLDWWWLWWDW - losses against 9th and bottom. Loss against 9th messy game with sending off for each side. Decent form then!

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 1 loss, 3 draws, 3 clean sheets, 1.43 scored 0.71 conceded away

STREAKS - 4 away without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the 1.5 quote for Alania does suggest slight unease . I am impressed with kamaz's recent overall form, None of their wins and draws -only recent top 5 result was a 3-2 win v 5th away.What do we make of Alania's unbeaten home record? tough match to get an angle into for me.

5pm - Mexico (W) v England (W) - 1.52 away - likely England are more layable than backable here in this first round of the World Cup
6pm - Elfsborg v Syrianska FC - 1.33 home

HEAD TO HEADS

13.05.2009CupSyrianska FC2-1IF Elfsborg

One head to head and a cup match wholly inconclusive.


LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 12th after 13 matches so slight niggle that this might be a little early for accurate form analysis.

HOME TEAM - ELFSBORG

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWWW - draw against 5th was 2-2 when they were 2-0 down. Wins against 7th, 9th, 13th, 14th, 16th scoring 3,2,2,4,3 - all 6 home matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored at least 2 in each home match this season.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDLWWWLWWWLD - losses were away to 1st, 2nd, 6th and 15th.Draws home against 5th and away v 10th.

GOAL TRENDS - 100% over 2.5 goals at home. 33% clean sheets at home. Have scored in all home games, a minimum of 2 goals.average 2.66 scored and 1 conceded. Only 1 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals as the last 3 were unders.

STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak - 6 at home without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - SYRIANSKA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLWL Losses against 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th, 11th. Failed to score in all of those losses, and 3 of them were 1-0's ( against 1st, 4th, 8th) Only win was against 15th and that was 1-0.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLWLDLWWDLW - draws against 2nd, 7th and bottom side were at home. Losses against 9th at home makes up all losses - all others were away as mentioned above.

GOAL TRENDS - 17% over 2.5 goals in the small sample of 6 matches away from home. 0.16 scored away and 1.33 conceded

STREAKS - 6 away without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the away form of Syrianska hints at a loss to nil and the potential of a single 1-0. The fact these matches are generally tight ( 2 1-0's v top 4 away) means we cannot discount the 0-0 and could back it initially in the hop Syr keep it tight and frustrate.

Elfsborg's ability to score 2 minimum might hint at a 2-0 scoreline best case?


WIMBLEDON
115pm
Wozniacki v Cibulkova - I neglected Woz at these kind of odds last time out and she won with supreme ease. 1st v 24th and it's WWWLW
for Woz since 2010 all on hard courts.
215pm
Llodra v Djokovic - 1.11 - biggest odds for Novak so far. 35th v 2nd in the world 2-1 to Djoko head to heads WLW all on hard in 2007,
2010 and 2011
415pm
Nadal v Del Potro - 1.23 Nadal - again by far the biggest odds for Nadal ( the biggest test for Nadal and the odds may factor in the
slight injury niggles he has. 1st v 21st 5-3 to Nadal in head to heads.WWWWLLLWW - all losses came in 2009 - sole show on grass was
in 2007


655 MUSSELBURGH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Westlin´ Winds, 5/1 Zefooha, 7/1 Los Nadis, 10/1 Rare Coincidence, 12/1 Dechiper, 12/1French Seventyfive, 12/1 Park´s Prodigy, 14/1 Silent Lucidity, 14/1 Soprano, 14/1 Strikemaster, 25/1 Via Archimede.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was clear from the strength in the betting that WESTLIN' WINDS (nap) was expected to do the business last time but he didn't get the run of the race after being held up off a fairly sedate gallop. He can make amends under Simon Walker if there's more pace on today.[Chris Wilson]

13/8 - - - - -5/1 price gapper albeit in an amateur riders handicap. Gamble gone astray last time and revenge mission today?

315 PONTEFRACT

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Sans Loi, 13/8 Princess Banu.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak turnout for a decent prize. SANS LOI ran better than the bare result might suggest at Royal Ascot and may have the edge on Princess Banu.[Frank Carter]

2 horses 50/50 shot back the bigger priced?

445 PONTEFRACT

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 York Glory, 4/1 Moral Issue, 5/1 Breezolini, 13/2 Defence Council, 13/2 Golden Taurus, 12/1Celtic Sixpence, 12/1 Eshoog, 14/1 Kinlochrannoch.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: YORK GLORY had a few subsequent winners behind him when making an encouraging turf debut at Nottingham, looks open to further progress and has the most attractive profile in the field. Punters looking for a Placepot selection could do worse than the consistent Moral Issue, for all he's still a maiden.[Steve Boow]

10/11 - - - - -4/1 price gapper in an ideal 8 runner - 3 place race with 4 under 14/1

230 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hidden Valley, 15/8 A Boy Named Suzi, 9/2 Tanmawy, 14/1 Princesse Gaelle, 16/1Chlodan, 16/1 Sulliman.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The others are unexposed but HIDDEN VALLEY and A Boy Named Suzi clearly head the list and have shown at Kempton that they handle Polytrack.[Richard Austen]


2 under 10/1 here in this all weather maiden. Will they dominate and fill the 2 places?

330 WOLVES

BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Befortyfour, 5/1 Jigajig, 8/1 Grudge, 12/1 Mottley Crewe, 16/1 Atlantic Beach, 16/1 Decider, 50/1 Flaxen Lake, 100/1 Lady Vivien.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a golden opportunity for BEFORTYFOUR who ran off 95 in turf handicaps on his last two starts and had no problems with Polytrack when he last encountered it in 2008. Jigajig and Grudge are the most likely to chase him home.[Richard Austen]

2 under 14/1 makes Jigajig the obvious alternative to the obvious Be44

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Tanjong Pagar v Etoile - 1.33 away - looks the safest of the Singapore league matches. Etoile should win this but I have no away head to heads to go by. They have not conceded against Tanjong in last 2 meeting at Etoile

6pm - Elfsborg v Syrianska FC - 1.33 home - away side have only scored 1 away all season while home side score 2 or more at home. Simple?

115pm - Wozniacki v Cibulkova - 1.24 for Woz. Faith in her?

215pm - Llodra v Djokovic - 1.11 - likely these odds will rise during the match. Novak surely over 5 should go through?

Murray about to start and I would lay him today as he is likely to face a tough opponent

445 PONTEFRACT - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 14/1 here and an odds on price gapper. Surely if the market is accurate the favourite
york Glory has a great chance of placing.

330 WOLVES - Befortyfour is 1.06 to place and Jigajig 1.5 to place - the latter is the only other horse under 14/1 here and could be worth
a punt in a race where there is only 8 runners, 4 of which are 20/1 or bigger.






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