The horse racing is terrible today bar the 315 SAlisbury which sees the fav missing the 2nd fav. I would like to have him onboard at 1.08 and perhaps add a tennis match to bump the odds?
*****ONE A DAY 315 SALISBURY - MUNDANA TO PLACE ONLY - 1.08 currently. Then back WOMEN WIMBLEDON KVITOVA V KEOTHAVONG - 1.06 ( faith in 8th in the world beating 111th) Makes a 1.14 bet and readers of the newsletter know we double our bank with 7 of those.
With the Footy, Spain should win but this is a semi final which might see nerves play a part, and USA looks standout against Uzbecks but I cannot trust 17 year olds in a World Cup environment.
Now you know why I was keen on Sillimae as a one a day - 7-0 win and , like the Argies against Albania, one for the really big hitters.
Talking of big hitters, Wozniaki won in 2 straight sets and dropping only 3 games. Wholly expected given the huge gulf in rankings.
1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Home Utd - 1.09 away - our good friends Woodlands " likely to concede a bucketload" Wellington in the Singapore League.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 14.06.2011 | |||||
| 27.03.2011 | |||||
| 31.08.2010 | |||||
| 08.06.2010 | |||||
| 22.03.2010 | |||||
| 25.09.2009 |
Possibility of " wounded animal" after last Cup humiliation? Home United have scored 2 minimum in all recent head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 2nd - 5 points accumulated for Woodlands. Home United are 4 points behind league leaders with a game in hand so a win ideal to close the gap to 1. 3rd place are also equal on points with Home United and Home have the superior goal difference. Now we are 16 games into the season, we should see some good trends .
HOME TEAM _WOODLANDS
RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLLLDLLLL - let's look at the draw first - 2-2 against geylang - saw Woodlands leading until 89th minute when they scored Geylang's equaliser. In the last 4 matches, Woodlands have lost 0-1 to 6th, 1-4 to 7th, 0-1 to 11th, and 1-5 to 3rd. Recent performances against top 3 - 1-3 v top and 1-5 v 3rd. Playing 2nd today.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLLLLWLLL - reccent win was 1-2 away win against 10th.1-1 at halftime. Young Lions get a man sent off. Woodlands miss a penalty and score an 85th minute winner.
GOAL TRENDS - 7 losses and 1 draw at home, averaging 0.75 scored and 2.38 conceded which pretty much tallies with the 1-3 when they lost to top team at home recently.
STREAKS - 9 games overall without a draw. 20 home games without a win ( in all competitions, not exclusively the league),
AWAY TEAM - HOME UNITED
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWDDWWDLWWL - draws against 6th and 9th were both 1-1's, drew 1-1 with top side too, and losses were against 3rd and 4th , 2-0 and 2-1. It looks as if worse case today would be a draw as they only lose against top 4 away.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLLWWWWWLW - those losses mentioned above.2,5,4,4,1,3 scored in recent league matches - quite consistent. Of course, mullered Woodlands 5-1 in the Cup in their last match.
GOAL TRENDS - 4 wins, 2 losses, 2 draws, 3 clean sheets away - 2.38 scored and 0.88 conceded away on average again hints at a 3-1 scoreline in favour of Home.
STREAKS - 10 games in all competitions without a draw , 4 away without a draw.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - looks like another loss for Woodlands and they may manage a consolation goal. In head to heads at Woodlands, the scorelines of 2-2 and 1-2 loss are quite respectable so this might not be the mullering the 1.09 suggests. Over 2.5 goals surely has a chance here? Beware wounded animal syndrome, as these 2 last met in their last game and Home won 5-1.
345pm - Rubin Kazan v Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod - 1.32 home
HEAD TO HEADS - none suggests Volga are newcomers to the top flight
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 13th of 16. 14 matches played in the league so far - I would prefer more matches played
HOME TEAM - RUBIN KAZAN
RECENT HOME FORM - WDDWDWW - unbeaten at home - 16th, 10th and 6th were the draws - 0-0 against bottom side a slight concern? In fact, 2 of the draws were 0-0, and 1 was 1-1. Wins against 11th, 7th , 12th, 4th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDLDDWDDWDWW - a few too many draws a slight concern -they have won 3 of last 4 , scoring 4,3,3 against 12th, 3rd and 14th.
GOAL TRENDS - 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 clean sheets - average 1.71 scored and 0.43 conceded.
STREAKS - 9 overall without a loss, 8 at home without a loss,
AWAY TEAM - VOLGA
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLLDLL -win against 14th -draw against bottom side.Losses agaisnt 6th,11th,10th , and 9th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWLLLLDLWLL - wins against 13th, 14th and 15th should not overtly concern Rubin kazan.
GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 5 losses, 1 draw, no clean sheets away. 0.86 scored and 1.43 conceded on average away.
STREAKS - 4 overall without a draw, 5 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - worse case for Rubin would be a 1-1, or 0-0 I feel. Their opponent's only wins were against 13th, 14th and 15th, and with Rubin in 3rd, you would expect them to continue their unbeaten home record.
5pm - Spain U21 v Belarus U21 - 1.2 home - this is a gifted Spanish side.UEFA u21 - this is a European Championship semi final. THis game gets Spain into the Olympics if they win and go into the Final and win.
HEAD TO HEADS - no head to heads
LEAGUE POSITION - not applicable
HOME TEAM - SPAIN U21
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWDDD since 2010 at home - draws against Belarus, Russia and England but Belarus was an u23 match. Last 4 wins were 3-1, 2-1, 2-1, 2-1
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDDDWW - loss was 3-2 v France , draws as above and 2 wins v Czechs and Ukraine.
GOAL TRENDS - none really available.
STREAKS - only 1 loss in 14 matches
AWAY TEAM - BELARUS u21
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLLLLL - Belarus have failed to score in 3 of their last 4. Poor away form, but with both sides apparently playing in Denmark it is an away match for both.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLWLDLLLWLL - wins against Azerbaijan, Italy after extra time, and Iceland.
GOAL TRENDS - unavailable.
STREAKS - 6 games without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I am not too sure what this match is about, but Spain look extremely strong and this is likely to be defense v attack. This is a Euro Championship semi final apparently
530pm - Frankfurt v MFK Kosice - 1.41 home - I cannot get any details on this match - assumption this is a friendly.
6pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Kuban Krasnodar - 1.28 home
HEAD TO HEADS
| 18.10.2009 | |||||
| 30.05.2009 | |||||
| 02.09.2007 |
Head to heads previous to that were in 2004.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 7th - only 14 matches played. CSKA top , 2 points ahead with a game in hand. Zenit go top with a win, provisionally
HOME TEAM - ZENIT
RECENT HOME FORM - WLWDDWW - last 2 wins 3-0 and 4-0 - 2 score draws prior to these. Wins against 14th, 15th, 8th and 5th. Loss against top side
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDDLWDWW - again the loss v 12th, 2-1 away.
GOAL TRENDS - 4 wins, 1 loss and 2 draws - 2.14 scored and 0.86 on average.
STREAKS - 4 without a loss overall, 2 home match winning streak, 5 home without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - KUBAN
RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWLDDL - 4 1-0 scorelines, a 0-0 and a 1-1.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWLWDDDWLL - 2 1-0 losses against 9th and 15th recently. Only 1 win in last 6.REcent win was a 3-2 home win against 10th.
GOAL TRENDS -2 wins, 3 losses and 2 draws.3 clean sheets away. 0.57 scored and 0.71 conceded on average away.
STREAKS - 4 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I feel this might be a tight match with the number of 1-0's, 0-0, and 1-1 scorelines for the away side. Zenit should win eventually we would suspect.
9pm - USA U17 v Uzbekistan U17 - 1.4 home - yesterday's under 17 matches showed that this World Cup is a nervy tight world Cup but surely the USA have a far better framework in place
9pm - Uruguay U17 v Rwanda U17 - 1.3 home - learn from the English - Rwanda are likely to be tough to break down.Uruguay with home(ish) advantage.
1159pm - Canada U17 v England U17 - 1.3 away - this looks like a logical england win - Canada lost 3-0 against Uruguay in this Tournament. England beat Rwanda 2-0 with 2 late goals.
3am - Honduras v Mexico - 1.34 away - again we must look at Gold cup only. Honduras drew 0-0 v Guatemala, beat Grenada 7-1, lost 1-0 v Jamaica, and drew 1-1 v Costa Rica ( where Costa Rica missed a 76th minute penalty)
Mexico beat El Salvador 5-0, beat Cuba 5-0, beat Costa Rica 4-1 and beat Guatemala 2-1., Collateral form points to an easy Mexico win?
TENNIS
MENS WIMBLEDON
12pm
|
| Bolelli v Wawrinka - 1.18 Waw - 116th v 14th in the world - 2-0 in head to heads, both in 2008 and on hard. Wawrinka did not |
|
| Gasquet v Kunitsyn - 1.14 home - 13th in the word v 66th - no head to heads. |
|
| Benneteau v Berdych - 1.14 Berd - 77th v 7th - 1-0 head to heads for Benneteau - in 2004 at Wimbledon |
|
| Nadal v Sweeting - 1.01 - again a look at 3-0 sets? - 1 v 69 in rankings. 2-0 head to heads both on hard and both in 2011 where |
|
| A Murray v Kamke - 1.02 - 3-0 sets might be pushing it with Ruby. Perhaps 3-0 and 3-1 dutch if odds allow.4th v 83rd - no head to |
|
| Del Potro v O Rochus - 1.11 Del - 21st v 73rd and Rochus is 1-0 up head to heads - hard court in Bangkok. |
|
| Monfils v Zemlja - 1.07 mon - 8th v 157th - no head to heads. |
| Hanescu v Roddick - 1.08 Rod - 63rd v 10th in the world. 3-0 in head to heads on hard, clay, carpet without losing a set. 2 7-6's in 2004 |
|
| Date Krumm v V Williams - 1.03 Venus - 57th v 30th . |
|
| Benesova v Azarenka - 1.1 Aza - 53rd v 5th - 1-0 head to heads for Azarenka - 6-2, 6-3 in US Open hard court 2008 |
| Kvitova v Keothavong - 1.06 Kvit - 8th x 111th - a nice gulf in class.Kvitova has won 2 matches in head to heads. Interestingly the |
|
| Dubois v Petkovic - 1.15 Pet - 122nd v 13th - Dubois won a sole head to head in 2009. |
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Mundana, 3/1 Lay Time, 6/1 Totheendoftheearth, 11/1 Rosairlie, 11/1 Swing Door, 20/1Lady Bridget, 25/1 Amazing Win, 25/1 Noverton, 28/1 Zartina, 40/1 A B Celebration.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lay Time, a well-bred filly who showed promise over this C&D on her debut last September, has to be respected but preference is for MUNDANA, who might very well have made a winning debut at Goodwood last month but for starting slowly. Totheendoftheearth is best of the rest. [Mel Cullinan]
Laytime is a non runner which is extremely good news for Mundana - 2 under 14/1 and 3 under 20/1 - this is a maiden race so we must take that into account.
The horse racing today is extremely difficult and this was the only race I could salvage. A lot of maidens today with a lot of debutants, mixed with some difficult handicaps.
SHORTLIST
345pm - Rubin Kazan v Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod - 1.32 home - Rubin should continue their home form and opponents have only beaten 13th, 14th and 15th which should not concern unbeaten at home 2nd placed
5pm - Spain U21 v Belarus U21 - 1.2 home - apparently a European Championship Semi Final and Spain u21 really are a superb side, and Belarus away form makes Spain clear favourites
6pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Kuban Krasnodar - 1.28 home - solid home form - 7 goals scored in last 2 matches. Have won at home against 5th and 8th and are playing 7th today. 4 1-0 results for away side in last 7 away, 2 losses, 2 wins, 1 1-1 and a 0-0 might temper enthusiasm.
9pm - USA U17 v Uzbekistan U17 - 1.4 home - surely USA are too good?
1159pm - Canada U17 v England U17 - 1.3 away - looks like England should win here, but no side at this level can be underestimated.
3am - Honduras v Mexico - 1.34 away - collateral form puts mexico clear.
215pm - Nadal v Sweeting - 1.16 3-0 sets
315pm - Monfils v Zemlja - 1.07 looks good considering the huge gulf in class.
415pm - Hanescu v Roddick - 1.08 Rod - perhaps a double with these 2?
5pm - Kvitova v Keothavong - 1.06 Kvit - 8th x 111th - 1.06 and another huge gulf in rankings
315 SALISBURY - Mundana is one of 2 under 18/1 - 2nd fav a non runner and surely that heralds a place at least at 1.08.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
345pm - Rubin Kazan v Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod - 1.32 home - with Zenit playing a side whose away matches have been very tight indeed, this looks the safer of the Russian matches with Rubin home form.
5pm - Spain U21 v Belarus U21 - 1.2 home - Spain are head and shoulders above Belarus, but will the fact this is an apparent European Championship Semi Final change the dynamic? Logic dictates an easy Spain win unless the pressure of a semi final freezes Spain.
9pm - USA U17 v Uzbekistan U17 - 1.4 home - this level can produce shocks especially in a World Cup, but the Uzbeks were beaten 4-1 by New Zealand for goodness sake and lost 3-1 to Azerbaijan.USA have beaten Czech republic 3-0 recently.
I would like to back Monfils and Kvitova today to make a 1.13 back bet.
315 SALISBURY - fav missing - Mundana 1.08 to place.
Now how about backing Mundana and Kvitova (8th in the world v 111th)
No comments:
Post a Comment