24/6

230 FOLKSTONE MIZBAH TO PLACE at 1.06 along with Berdych at 1.09 against Bogomolov looks the call today.

730 CURRAGH Famous Name of great interest this evening but I cannot recount to you the odds as it is so far away time wise.

Surely Sharapova will win in 2 straight sets if the gap in rankings is anything to go by 254th v 6th in the world. At 1.18 it is enticing.

I am going to opt with Sharapova here. She beat a previous player ranked 52nd 6-1, 6-2 so hopefully can replicate here?

*****ONE A DAY - WOMEN'S WIMBLEDON ROBSON v SHARAPOVA - scheduled for 1pm- Back Sharapova in the SET BETTING at 1.18***** If illiquid on betfair, use bookmakers.

Sea Soldier won and kept his price at the off.

3pm - Alania Vladikavkaz v Mordovia Saransk - 1.44

HEAD TO HEADS

07.04.2010	Cup	Mordovia Saransk	0-3	Alania Vladikavkaz
05.09.2007	D2	Alania Vladikavkaz	0-0	Mordovia Saransk
20.05.2007	D2	Mordovia Saransk	3-1	Alania Vladikavkaz

Last league head to heads in 2007 pretty irrelevant 4 years on.

LEAGUE POSITION -1st v 2nd in the Russian 2nd division should immediately point to a lay of the home side.1st on 33 points, 2nd on 32.

HOME TEAM - ALANIA -

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWD so far this term - Alania were relegated last year. 2 1-0's, 2 1-1's and a 0-0 along with an anomolous 4-0 at home. Overall trend towards tight matches at home. Draws against 18th, 14th , 7th and wins against 5th, 6th and 19th ( of 20) . How accurate, then, was that Cup head to head in April 2010?

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDDLWDWWWDWDDW - great recent unbeaten run. Sole loss was 1-0 against 16th in the league and that was a 90th minute goal, so unlucky not to have an unbeaten run this season.

GOAL TRENDS - 12 of the last 13 matches have been under 2.5 goals. 5 matches have been 1-0 wins against 20th, 19th, 17th, 8th, 6th , 3 1-1's against 7th, 9th, 18th, and 2 0-0's against 10th and 14th. Not really played the top 5 yet. They did win 3-0 against 3rd in the league in April 2011. 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 clean sheets.1.33 scored and 0.33 conceded.

STREAKS - 10 home matches in all competitions without a loss, 6 overall.

AWAY TEAM - MORDOVIA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDDWD - losses against 5th and 7th, draws against 6th, 14th and 19th ( 0-0, 1-1, 0-0) and win was 0-6 against 18th .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWWLLDWDDWWWDWW - long unbeaten run like Alania's

GOAL TRENDS - 4 of last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. 1 win, 2 losses and 3 draws away, scoring 1.33 , conceding 0.83

STREAKS - 10 overall without a loss, 4 away without a loss.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I can see a tight match here despite 4 of Mordovia;s last 6 matches being overs. Alania's home scorelines and Mordovia's away scorelines ( 0-0 , 1-1, 1-0 scorelines in both) hint a possible tight affair without Alania losing. Mordovia have only won 1 away so far and that was against bottom 3 side.

6pm - Shakhtyor Soligorsk v Belshina Bobruisk - 1.5 home - Belarussian top flight and totally illiquid market.

745pm - Bohemians v Drogheda - 1.39 home - not for me thanks after Drogs miserable performance lately. 6th v 9th in the league and likely to be an unpredictable match.

745pm - Dundalk v Galway Utd - 1.17 home - Dundalk are this price because galway keep losing. I do not though trust a team which is 7th of 10, and has lost 3 and drawn 1 of their last 4 . They only beat GAlway 3-2 previously so I would be looking to lay Dundalk here at limited liability.

9pm - Jamaica U17 v France U17 - 1.28 away - a degree of normalcy returned yesterday with Germany winning easily, although it took a free kick for Brazil to win 1-0, and really they bear no resemblance to their elders, so do not be put off by laying these names who are normally synonymous with superior football.

Collateral form

Jamaica lost 1-2 to Argentina, France beat them 3-0

Jamaica lost 1-0 to Japan, France drew 1-1 with them, after scoring first and conceding a penalty

Jamaica's goal against Argentina was an 89th minute goal when 2-0 down and might hint at the Argies taking their foot off the pedal. With that in mind, it seems that the Jamaicans may have trouble scoring? What do we make of France's 3-0 win over Argentina - very impressive and all first half goals. Enough firepower for a narrow win over Jamaica this evening?

WIMBLEDON

12pm

Bartoli v Dominguez Lino - 1.07 Bart - 9th v 48th and Dom has 1-0 2007 clay win.

Wozniacki v Razzano - 1.06 Woz - drifted a little - 2-0 still the call? 1pm

Robson v Sharapova - 1.03 - see yesterday's message - 2-0 a real goer here surely. 254th v 6th 230pm

Bogomolov Jr v Berdych - 1.08 Berd - 72nd v 7th

Gasquet v Bolelli - 1.15 Gasquet - 13th v 116th - 3-0 head to heads includes 2-0 sets on grass in 2008. 330pm

Nadal v Muller - straight sets so far for Nadal - more of the same today? - 1st v 92nd - beat Nadal on grass in 2005 at Wimbledon. 415pm

A Murray v Ljubicic - 1.09 Murray - I would lay Murray at those odds against a player who should put up some resistance. 3-3 in head to heads and that 1.09 looks ever more appealing as a lay. 4th v 33rd 600 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Sharestan, 9/2 Betrothed, 8/1 Dodging Bullets, 8/1 Miss Gardenia, 8/1 Opa Loca, 10/1 Olfa, 10/1 Quill And Vellum, 12/1 Krivan, 14/1 Foot Of Pride, 14/1 Man Of Erin, 14/1 Sharalam, 14/1 Velesgo, 20/1 Jet To Rio, 20/1Mountain Woman, 20/1 Spice Power, 25/1 Diamond Daze, 33/1 All About Alfie, 33/1 Compromise Rules, 33/1 Elusive Fairy, 33/1 Gallos Secret, 50/1 Courtileo, 50/1 In High Esteem, 50/1 Midador, 50/1 Parasympathetic.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's possible that John Oxx has put aside one of his better unraced inmates for a maiden that kicks off the Derby festival, and thus SHARESTAN gets the vote over Betrothed, whose official rating of 80 appears to set the standard among those that have run. [Alan Sweetman]

5/4 - - --7 /1 this Sharestan but a huge field Irish Maiden. Hmmm!

730 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Famous Name, 5/2 Jan Vermeer, 4/1 Elusive Pimpernel, 20/1 Last Crusade, 25/1 Mid Mon Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Jan Vermeer possibly vulnerable in the wake of an ill-starred run at Royal Ascot this presents FAMOUS NAME with a fine opportunity to add to his considerable earnings. [Alan Sweetman]

Sumpuous race! I suspect FAmous Name will do the business again for Weld/Smullen in this 3 horse race for 2 places.

250 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 West Side, 11/4 Trojan Rocket, 9/2 Dictionary, 13/2 Little Jimmy Odsox, 12/1 My Own Way Home, 25/1 Noels Princess, 25/1 Russian Winter, 33/1 Deslaya, 33/1 Lovely Lynn.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WEST SIDE, whose Leicester form is working out well, looks open to further improvement and makes plenty of appeal in a relatively ordinary maiden for the track. Trojan Rocket's Polytrack form puts him in the mix andDictionary may progress again if coping with the drop back in distance.[Steve Boow]

4 under 16/1 here and an odds on fav albeit in a maiden.

230 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mizbah, 3/1 Cockney Rocker, 4/1 Tidal Way, 6/1 Mr Knightley, 10/1 Artistic Thread, 25/1Welease Bwian, 33/1 Valley Of Stars, 66/1 Ernest Speak.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MIZBAH looks the one to be on with potential for improvement over the longer trip, though having been turned over by a Channon horse on the second occasion any confidence behind Tidal Way could be significant.Cockney Rocker is also considered.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

7 runners now, 3 places and dependable Ted Durcan on the market leader.

650 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Principal Role, 5/1 Piano, 7/1 Opera Gal, 7/1 Plaisterer, 10/1 Cracking Lass, 12/1 Crystal Gal, 14/1 Matula, 16/1 Fanditha, 20/1 Silver Grey, 20/1 Starkat, 33/1 Snow Dancer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Principal Role sets the standard here and if she can reproduce her Goodwood third on this easier ground, she has to be on the shortlist. Plaisterer will be more at home on this ground and couldn't be completely ruled out, but PIANO is still relatively lightly raced and she did enough on her first crack in this company to make her of interest here.[Paul Smith]

15/8 - - - 4/1 price gapper in this listed race.

SHORTLIST

745pm - Dundalk v Galway Utd - 1.17 home - must be shortlisted but Dundalk lost shockingly recently against Drogheda and this fixture was 3-2 when they last met at Dundalk. Looks a lay with no real concerns re liability.

9pm - Jamaica U17 v France U17 - 1.28 away - You know very well that this is a tournament of shocks. Collateral form though points to France scoring

1pm - Robson v Sharapova - surely 254th v 6th in the World beckons 2-0 sets?
230pm - Bogomolov Jr v Berdych - 1.08 Berd - 72nd v 7th - perhaps back it with Mizbah?

Gasquet v Bolelli - 1.15 Gasquet - 13th v 116th - 3-0 in head to heads and big gulf in rankings.

730 CURRAGH - faith in Famous Name again. Totally illiquid market as you can appreciate so far away from race time.

230 FOLKSTONE - you can't really go wrong with a 7 horse race, 3 places and a Godolphin fav ridden by TEd Durcan. Alas that is what the

market thinks too at 1.06 to place. Tidal Way at 1.57 to place looks the value alternative in a race where 3 are under 14/1 and 4 under

28/1

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Gasquet v Bolelli - 1.15 Gasquet - 13th v 116th - a straight back of Gasquet here -3-0 head to heads. 13th in the world v 116th - anyone

out of top 100 usually vulnerable.

230pm - Bogomolov Jr v Berdych - 1.08 Berd - 72nd v 7th - Berdych has looked in good nick of late. Perhaps consideration given to

backing with 230 FOLKSTONE MIZBAH at 1.06. The tennis match is unlikely to go off at 230pm on the dot.

730 CURRAGH - This looks a superb race - 3 horses for 2 places and the ever dependable Famous Name - a slight blip when 3rd when

upped to Group 1 , but this horse is a proven Group 3 performer and likely to oblige with a place now back in that group of race.

The market tells us little regarding the price.

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