HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.03.2011 | ECQ | Armenia | 0-0 | Russia |
LEAGUE POSITION GROUP B - Ireland/Russia/Slovakia all on 10 points at the top of the table. Armenia 4th on 8 points. This is a tight table and points will be critical especially 1) when you are at home and 2) when you are expected to win ( as the 1.24 attests)
HOME TEAM - RUSSIA
RECENT HOME FORM - LDWWWLWLWWLL - one Euro qualifier out of those was a 1-0 loss to Slovakia . In fact there have been 3 1-0's in Russia's last 5 matches LWL.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDWWLWWLLDD - Euro qualifier results
0-2 away win v Andorra
0-1 home loss to Slovakia
2-3 away win v Ireland
0-1 away loss to Macedonia
0-0 away draw v Armenia
GOAL TRENDS - what strike me is a lack of attacking potential from this Russian side. I mean, only scoring 2 against Andorra. 3 against Ireland impressive enough, but the general trend is towards tight matches. Recent friendly losses to Iran 1-0 and 1-1 draw with Qatar fills Russia followers with dread.
STREAKS - 4 overall without a win, 10 at home without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - ARMENIA
RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLD - 2009 matches - includes one Euro match , a 2-2 draw with Macedonia -Armenia should have won that match as Macedonia scored a 95th minute penalty.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLLWLLDWWLD - euros -
0-1 home loss to Ireland
2-2 away draw with Macedonia
3-1 home win over Slovakia
4-0 home win over Andorra
GOAL TRENDS - Armenia actually show a penchant for scoring, more so than the Ruskies.
STREAKS - 10 away without a win
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Russia seem impotent infront of goal which makes this 1.24 quote layable early on rather than backable. Armenia seem more likely to score it would seem but look at the stat above - 10 away without a win. Back the 0-0 initially at 22 with trading in mind? THe market though thinks the Ruskies could score 3 or more today ( 4.4 for unquoted). To be fair, 3 of Armenia's 5 matches have been over 2.5 goals but there was that 0-0 v Russia.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 07.09.2010 | ECQ | Switzerland | 1-3 | England | |
| 06.02.2008 | FRL | England | 2-1 | Switzerland |
LEAGUE POSITION - GROUP G - England joint top with 10 points along with Montenegro.Switzerland are 3rd with 4 points , having only won 1 of their 4 matches.
HOME TEAM - ENGLAND
RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWDDWWDLD - loss was a friendly v France.Euro qualifiers
4-0 v Bulgaria and 0-0 v Montenegro.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - after the World Cup WWWDLWWD - last LD was friendlies.;
GOAL TRENDS - no strong trends - a blast against Bulgaria. It must be noted there is only one upfront today - no Defoe/Rooney/carroll/Crouch. Reliance only on Bent. England are 9 for and 1 against so far in this Euro campaign which signals their strengths.
STREAKS - 3 at home overall without a win
AWAY TEAM - SWITZERLAND
RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWWDWWLWLDD - includes the World Cup - Euro qualifiers - 1-0 loss to Montenegro and 0-0v Bulgaria. Collateral form for England and Swiss v Bulgaria is quite contrasting.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLLWDDD - be ware the last 2 draws 0-0's returns to the Swiss side of the World Cup with their horrendous negative football.
GOAL TRENDS - 9 of 12 matches under 2.5 goals, but overs against Ukraine, Wales and ,importantly, England ( but a different England formation)
STREAKS - 3 away without a win, 4 overall without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I am personally unconvinced by a reliance solely on Darren Bent today . Why not the same formation as beat the Swiss 3-1 last time out and away from home. England's strength is its defence , conceding 1 and scoring 9. I would back 0-0 to trade here as the Swiss have had 2 0-0's consecutively and may frustrate this one up front. Expect a win to nil eventually. 1-0 or 2-0?
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.03.2011 | ECQ | Andorra | 0-1 | Slovakia |
LEAGUE POSITION - GROUP B - one of 3 teams on 10 points and simply a must win( and will win). Andorra have lost all 5 with a goals tally of 1 scored and 12 conceded - average 2 a game so not getting mullered.
HOME TEAM - SLOVAKIA
RECENT HOME FORM - WLLDWLWDWDLL - very mixed bag from the Slovakians Euro qualifiers - 1-0 v Macedonia and 1-1 draw with Ireland. Draw with Ireland lucky as Keane missed a penalty.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWLDLLWL - lost 3 of last 4. - includes a loss to Luxembourg in a friendly.EUROS
1-0 home win v Macedonia
0-1 away win v Russia
3-1 away loss to Armenia
1-1 draw with Ireland
0-1 away win v Andorra.
GOAL TRENDS4 of 5 matches have been under 2.5 goals and in the Euros, Slovakia have shown they cannot score more than 2!
STREAKS - 4 without a draw - 3 at home without a win
AWAY TEAM - ANDORRA
RECENT AWAY FORM - lost last 12 conceding 2,2,3,4,5,6,5,4,1,1,3,4 - they scored only 3 in those 12 matches., Euro matches
3-1 loss to Ireland and 4-0 loss to Montenegro.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - lost last 12 - Euros
0-2 home loss to Russia
3-1 away loss to Ireland
0-2 home loss to Macedonia
4-0 away loss to Armenia
GOAL TRENDS - if Euros are any indication 2-0 should be the minimum scoreline from the Slovakians today but what do we make of the 1-0 away to Andorra - bad day at the office?
STREAKS - pretty obvious!
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the question is not whether Slovakia will win, it is how many goals they will score. That's the angle in - 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 my options. A pity the market is so illiquid on Betfair as I would have opted for a 0-0 throwaway trade at what should be triple figure odds for the 0-0.
Slight concern with apparent inability to score 2 or more by Slovakia.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.03.2011 | ECQ | Malta | 0-1 | Greece | |
| 17.11.2007 | ECQ | Greece | 5-0 | Malta | |
| 28.03.2007 | ECQ | Malta | 0-1 | Greece |
HOME TEAM - GREECE
RECENT HOME FORM - LDLWLDWWWD - 3 of last 5 matches under 1.5 goals is typically Greek
Euro matches?
| 12.10.2010 | ECQ | Greece | 2-1 | Israel |  |
| 08.10.2010 | ECQ | Greece | 1-0 | Latvia | |
| 03.09.2010 | ECQ | Greece | 1-1 | Georgia |
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDDWWWWWD - superb form since the World Cup.
| 26.03.2011 | ECQ | Malta | 0-1 | Greece | |
| 12.10.2010 | ECQ | Greece | 2-1 | Israel | |
| 08.10.2010 | ECQ | Greece | 1-0 | Latvia | |
| 07.09.2010 | ECQ | Croatia | 0-0 | Greece |  |
| 03.09.2010 | ECQ | Greece | 1-1 | Georgia | |
GOAL TRENDS - Greece are, erm, typically Greek, so don't be surprised if this is 0-0 at halftime.
STREAKS - 9 overall without a loss for the Greeks - 5 at home without a loss -
AWAY TEAM - MALTA
RECENT AWAY FORM - lost all of their last 12 away. 4 of the last 5 matches have seen 3 goals or more conceded. This ties in with the 1.08 for Greece today at home. Euros
3-1, 1-0, 3-0
RECENT OVERALL FORM - 10 losses and 2 draws - 1-1 and 0-0 draws in friendlies. Euros
| 17.11.2010 | ECQ | Croatia | 3-0 | Malta |  |
| 08.10.2010 | ECQ | Georgia | 1-0 | Malta | |
| 07.09.2010 | ECQ | Malta | 0-2 | Latvia | |
| 02.09.2010 | ECQ | Israel | 3-1 | Malta | |
GOAL TRENDS - should concede 3 or 4 away today if Greece are on form and do not repeat their 93rd minute 1-0 escape trick against Malta
STREAKS - obvious streaks
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Greece should ideally win by 3 or 4, but do Greek teams actually know how to score 3 or 4?
HEAD TO HEADS
| 07.09.2010 | ECQ | Norway | 1-0 | Portugal |
LEAGUE POSITION - GROUP H - 2nd v 1st and revenge? A new manager for the Pork and Cheese has seen a change in fortunes.
HOME TEAM - PORTUGAL
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWWWDDWWDW - superb home form.
| 08.10.2010 | ECQ | Portugal | 3-1 | Denmark | |
| 03.09.2010 | ECQ | Portugal | 4-4 | Cyprus | |
Should have beaten Cyprus in an extraordinary match.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWDLWLWWWLDW - loss and draw in recent friendlies.
| 12.10.2010 | ECQ | Iceland | 1-3 | Portugal | |
| 08.10.2010 | ECQ | Portugal | 3-1 | Denmark | |
| 07.09.2010 | ECQ | Norway | 1-0 | Portugal | |
| 03.09.2010 | ECQ | Portugal | 4-4 | Cyprus | |
Pretty emphatic since the Norway loss
GOAL TRENDS - as I say, since the Norway loss, Portugal have clicked from an attacking perspective.Superb attacking talent on display, but defensively Carvalho is out.
STREAKS - 18 at home without a loss - Portugeuse expected NOT to lose.
AWAY TEAM - NORWAY
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWWLWL recently -
| 08.10.2010 | ECQ | Cyprus | 1-2 | Norway | |
| 03.09.2010 | ECQ | Iceland | 1-2 | Norway | |
Strength of opposition questionable.
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWLWWWWLWLD - pretty good overall -
| 26.03.2011 | ECQ | Norway | 1-1 | Denmark | |
| 08.10.2010 | ECQ | Cyprus | 1-2 | Norway | |
| 03.09.2010 | ECQ | Iceland | 1-2 | Norway | |
STREAKS - 7 away without a draw
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - expect to see a better Portugeuse performance more in keeping with their 3 goal wins over 2 of the Euro opponents. Norway could be tough to beat, but have gone 7 away without a draw - add that to Portugal's 18 at home without defeat and we have a natural inclination towards a Portugeuse win eventually.
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Eland Ally, 6/1 Bobby´s Doll, 11/1 Lady Rumba, 12/1 Gorgeous Goblin, 14/1 Crew Cut, 14/1 Harmony Wold, 20/1 First Pressing, 20/1 Noels Princess, 20/1 Tsarina Louise, 33/1 Green Ensign.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ELAND ALLY's reappearance fourth in a York handicap which is working out extremely well stands out in this very weak maiden and he really should make it eighth time lucky with something to spare. Something has to finish second, with the tentative vote going to Lady Rumba.[Mel Cullinan]
These price gappers have been placing regularly. This is a maiden and Eland Ally is now 1/3 with next best 7/1
Tough Card at Epsom and the question re Carlton House is regarding fitness.
245 HEXHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Majestic Mayhem, 11/8 Montoya´s Son, 16/1 The Green Hat, 20/1 Kyathos, 20/1 Still Calm, 25/1 Sam Hall.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only the top two on the card are worthy of serious consideration. Majestic Mayhem goes well here and gained a smooth win on his chasing debut but if MONTOYA'S SON is given an aggressive ride, he could make his extra chasing experience tell.[Chris Wilson]
Must be a 2 horse race with a clear round, but a novice chase.
415 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Adlington, 11/8 Screenprint, 4/1 Janet´s Pearl.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ADLINGTON is narrowly preferred to Screenprint, though there isn't a huge amount of form on which to chew.[Paul Johnson]
3 horses, 2 places and a 5/1 shot
520 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Jeu De Vivre, 2/1 A Southside Boy.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JEU DE VIVRE has the form in the book and is preferred to handicap newcomer A Southside Boy in this anticlimactic end to a good card.[Paul Johnson]
Fanning/Johnston in a 2 horse race
255 TRAMORE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Dimona, 7/2 Mojita, 13/2 Melisasofia, 8/1 Pure Greed, 8/1 Regal Tramp, 14/1 Katesgem, 25/1Ellie´s Dream, 25/1 Spirit Diamond.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: John Oxx looks to have found a nice opportunity for DIMONA whose second to Malayan Mist at Gowran is by some way the best form on offer and with the prospect of further improvement over this longer trip she is hard to oppose. Mojita looks best of the remainder while Melisasofia is a likely improver. [Alan Hewison]
Price gapper for John Oxx stable should place
300 WORCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Loughnagall, 7/4 Tregaro, 8/1 On The Bridge, 14/1 The Herb, 16/1 Bob Emmet, 16/1Shadow´s Gold, 25/1 Northern Season, 33/1 Betavix, 33/1 Search For Gold, 50/1 Consult, 50/1 Subtle Approach, 100/1 Go Ruby Go.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An uncompetitive maiden hurdle and one which looks well within the grasp of the Irish challengerLOUGHNAGALL (nap) who has run well in stronger company and will have the assistance of Tony McCoy. Tregaro is likely to give him most to do.[Frank Carter]
5 under 20/1 and front 2 cannot really be split
SHORTLIST
4pm - Russia v Armenia - 1.24 home - Armenia are poor away from home and that is the main factor in opposing them. Back Russia with a 0-0 cover as they are a little impotent infront of goal but the market expects them to let loose today.
445pm - England v Switzerland - 1.37 home - clearly the best side and with a goals ratio of scoring 9 and conceding 1 in the Euros, it seems that if England can get the breakthrough they will win. A 0-0 cover incase this one man attack doesn't work will reduce the odds to 1.28 which is reasonable for me.
715pm - Slovakia v Andorra - 1.03 home - what to make of the 1-0 last time these 2 met? away from home though Andorra should concede 2,3 or 4. But Slovakia are another example of a team impotent in attack.
9pm - Portugal v Norway - 1.37 home - attack v defence this evening with Portugal renewed under a new manager. Again I would do the 0-0 cover as Norway would be happy with a point and I expect Portugal to have the vast majority of possession ( i.e. if Norway do not have the ball, how can they score) - 7 away without a draw for Norway plays 18 at home without defeat.
505 DONCASTER - Eland Ally should place with ease but 1.07 is a little stingy. 1.37 for the win
415 MUSSELBURGH - lovely probability race. One horse at 5/1 will hopefull run as an outsider - default to the market leader here? Adlington for Fahey/Hanagan should be able to finish without getting beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race.Illiquid at present but 1.18 I hope ( may need Betfair SP)
520 MUSSELBURGH - 2 horse race and Fanning/Johnston's Jeu de Vivre is 1.24 fav. Faith in this solid combo? Risk with these races they could turn into sprints and horses entered into 1 mile 4 furlong races are not by definition sprinters.
300 WORCESTER - maiden hurdle dominated by Loughnagall and Tregaro -but will both complete and both place as it is hard to split them. Betfair fancies Loughnagall as place only favourite.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
445pm - England v Switzerland - 1.37 home - if stake is £100, back England in Match Odds at 1.41 currently. Go to Correct score market. Back 0-0 at odds of 13 for £8.70 which will return £99.70 if it is 0-0 ( which will return the stake on England) of course, adapt this to your own stake .
9pm - Portugal v Norway - 1.37 home - same as above but correct score is at 16 for 0-0 so I would back 0-0 for £7 to cover a nominal £100 stake on portugal to win.
415 MUSSELBURGH - pure probability and Adlington at around 1.18 would be my horse to hopefully not get beaten by 2 in a 3 horse race.
520 MUSSELBURGH - toss of a coin but when Fanning/Johnston are on your side, then I am happy to take the chance on Jeu de Vivre at 1.24 to win.
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