8/6

From a pure probability perspective, I must opt for the 240 Yarmouth. You will see my argument is strong. 7 runners, 3 places still on Betfair, only 4 under 16/1

So the market leader must have a good chance of placing if justifying favouratism considering 3 horses are 16/1, 25/1 and 66/1

*****ONE A DAY - 240 YARMOUTH - LOCUM TO PLACE***** - as ever try to wait til nearer the off as there is little money in the place only market. Alternately take Betfair SP 1.3 is currently available and putting bets on now means you get valueless bets as there are no market forces.

England's overpaid nancy boys take note! Sweden showed you how a 1.38 team should perform at home. A 5-0 spanking of Finland went better than I had predicted. And yes, the majority of the International players for Sweden have had just as long a season as the England players.

And when I saw, with Spain later, that Villa and Pedro were starting , I would have gladly put these up in a double.

6pm - Brommapojkarna v Qviding - 1.42 home - Division 2 Swedish league and I will do the kind of research I did with the Internationals and get a kind of " snapshot"

THis is 7th against bottom but only 9/10 matches have been played.

Bromma have only lost 4 of their last 12 home and away to 5th, 13th and 15th in a league of 16 so I will call an abrupt halt to research here. If they cannot beat 13th and 15th, and are playing 16th today, then they do not look to be solid betting propositions. 2 of their last 4 home wins have been 1-0's as well. I will get involved in the Swedish 2nd tier I think after 15 or so matches have been played.

7pm - Germany U19 (W) v Switzerland U19 (W) - 1.19 home - UEFA WOMEN EURO u19 match so not a friendly. I was very impressed with my call for the ladies first team yesterday as I nailed the 5-0 correct score. Are the under 19's as dominant?

The last head to head was a 3-0 Swiss win which was most unexpected and that was in a competitive match.

Unbeaten in last 12 home and away, it seems the German yunger fraulein dominate as much as the first team. Only 2 draws, one in the Euro u19 semi final of 2010 and the other against Wales.

Germans have won their last 6 on the trot, with only one of those a friendly.Germans have scored 4,5,2,1,2,1,2,3,5,3,1,2 in their last 12, so can breach the 3+ goal mark when allowed. 1.19 hints that this could be the case today.

At home, the Germans have suffered only 2 defeats , yes again against the USA but , back in July 2009 against Switzerland - the last meeting between the 2.The Germans have won their last 5 home matches, conceding 0,0,1,0,0 . Germans have scored 2,2,5,3,1 in those 5 so as long as they keep a clean sheet they are most likely to score.

The Swiss have not been too bad, only 2 losses in their last 11 matches against Holland, and most recently a 1-0 v Italy with an 84th minute winner for the Italian ladies.

3 draws, 3 wins, 2 losses in last 8 overall. 3 draws saw 2 0-0's against Russia and Denmark.Wins against Ukraine, Czechs and Belgium.

Collateral form/ Germans have beaten both Holland and Italy, who defeated the Swiss.

Swiss away have lost 3, drawn 1 and won 7 of last 11, losses against Scotland , France and Italy. The latter 2 were both 1-0 losses.The last 2 matches away were a 0-0 draw with Russia and a 1-0 loss to italy. Can the Swiss keep it tight or are the Germans a level higher?

There is not much I can get from the UEFA website suffice to say they label this match a " semi final" although futbol24.com have this competition formatted by tables? IF this is a semi final then I would consider laying such a short price initially .

730pm - Uruguay v Netherlands - given the Netherland's imperious unbeaten record, laying Uruguay looks the logical way to go. This is a friendly though. 3-2 in the head to heads in July 2010 and this could be repeated with the likes of Suarez, robben, Van Persie, Van der Vaart, Hunteelaar, possibly Van Horseface.

The key stat is this. In their last 50 internationals ( I cannot get any further back), the Dutch have lost only 2, 2-1 v Belarus in November 2007 and 1-2 in a friendly against Australia in September 2008 ( Dutch had a man sent off then conceded a penalty and lost to a 76th minute Aussie winner)

They are unbeaten in their last 36 matches in all competitions ( including friendlies) and have drawn only 8 of those 36 matches.

Last match was a 0-0 in a friendly with Brazil.

Possible concerns tonight are fatigue after a long season.

Uruguay have lost 3 of their last 4, against Chile, Estonia and Germany and have an overall general trend towards goals. Total goals in last 12 matches 1,3,2,5,5,2,8,4,2,2,5,3 - surely the Dutch can chip in if playing anywhere near their strongest side?

Last 7 matches have been friendlies for the uruguayians WWWLLWL - no draws there.

I am not sure if this match is In uruguay, away from Uruguay or at a neutral venue and I cannot find any of this peripheral information on the internet.

The Dutch record is wonderful and I am sure they would like it to continue. Like Spain , the Dutch seem blessed with a number of world class players in all positions at one particular time. Now surely it seems logical to oppose Uruguay given this imperious unbeaten record of the Dutch? They are available at 2.68 to lay.

200 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Mousie, 11/2 Beaumaris, 10/1 Flying Pickets, 10/1 Island Bird, 16/1 Elsie Tanner.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pint Size was an easy winner at Redcar yesterday and could take plenty of beating if he's allowed to turn out quickly. His main rival appears to be MOUSIE who was quite highly tried two starts back and looked more at home in this grade when runner-up at Folkestone next time. Market support for newcomer Beaumaris should be noted.[Steven Boow]

With Pint Size a non runner, Mousie has now shortened to 1/2

550 CLONMEL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Ordinary Man, 7/1 Haste Ye Bach, 8/1 Baresi, 8/1 Bingo Lady, 10/1 A Hill To Climb, 12/1Another Gear, 16/1 Jack The Hat, 25/1 Always Thinking, 25/1 Gone To The Beach, 25/1 Realta Rathcabhain, 33/1 Indalo Return, 33/1 Kelsey´s Girl, 33/1 Western Promise, 50/1 Upthecats, 66/1 Sarahs Lass, 66/1 Star Palm.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ORDINARY MAN took many an eye here last time and, for all that he remains something of a quirky customer, he is hard to oppose in a pretty weak maiden. Another Gear is put forward as an each-way alternative. [Johnny Ward]

Huge price gapper here. A little more tentative in the betting market 5/4 - - - -6/1

800 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Belle Noverre, 2/1 Fremen, 9/4 Moody Tunes, 6/1 Smarty Sam, 33/1 Child Of Our Time, 66/1 Psalm Twentythree, 200/1 Matilda May, 200/1 Singing Lion.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little to choose between Fremen and Moody Tunes on the book and both are likely to be involved but, in receipt of the sex allowance, BELLE NOVERRE can retain her unbeaten C&D record.[Paul Johnson]

In the betting forecast it's 4 under 33/1 for the places. This is a seller but is a perfect place only race. 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 33/1 and 3 under 16/1 - will these 3 be the 3 placers? Can Fremen get involved again? Worse case place?

220 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Udabaa, 4/1 Frontline Phantom, 7/1 Boss´s Destination, 8/1 Prince Apollo, 10/1 Dahaam, 10/1Pelham Crescent, 12/1 Mistoffelees.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks much less competitive than the handicaps UDABAA (nap) has been placed in at Newbury and Ascot this year and he can end the winning run of Frontline Phantom.[Adrian Cook]

11/8 - - - -4/1 here in this now 7 horse race for 3 places - note the "outsider" is only 14/1 which generally indicates a tight enough handicap.

320 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Kitty Wells, 3/1 Dance Tempo, 6/1 Porgy, 8/1 Line Of Duty, 10/1 Dansili Dancer, 14/1Granston, 16/1 Classic Vintage, 20/1 Tominator, 25/1 Mister Angry.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No surprise if KITTY WELLS is capable of holding her own at a higher level than this before the season is out and she can make amends for her unfortunate second over C&D on last month's return. Dance Tempo, who improved markedly on last year's maiden form when winning at Windsor on his return, is feared most.[Adrian Cook]

7/4 - - - - -5/1 here for Cumani/FAllon on Kitty Wells in this handicap.

350 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Keys, 2/1 Wild Coco, 3/1 Thubiaan, 7/1 Ithoughtitwasover, 14/1 Body Language, 33/1 Crimson Knight, 33/1 Sacred Sound, 50/1 Navigation Track, 100/1 Patricias Pride, 100/1 Springtime Melody, 100/1 Union Zak, 200/1Alltheclews.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a great deal of strength in depth. Smart bumper performer KEYS may be able to recoup Kempton losses at the expense of Wild Coco and Thubiaan.[Adrian Cook]

3 under 25/1 here in this maiden. Wild Coco odds on at present.

210 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Lady Nickandy, 6/4 Mystery Cool, 6/1 Willies Diamond, 17/2 Masivo Man, 25/1 Goldies Band.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A close call between form principals MYSTERY COOL and Lady Nickandy. With the return to 5f a likely plus. Irish raider Mystery Cool is just preferred. [Mel Cullinan]

fav now 1/3 and value in 2nd fav

240 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Locum, 3/1 Art Scholar, 3/1 Golden Waters, 17/2 Spiritual Art, 14/1 Libre, 14/1 Sanctum, 25/1 Carlcol Girl.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Art Scholar has to be respected after a sound effort over C&D last time on just his second start for this stable but preference is still for LOCUM (nap), who has a decent record here and can land course win number three after a sound enough return here in April. [Mel Cullinan]

7 horses but 3 places on Betfair increases probability of fav placing. 4 under 14/1 too increases the probability chance.

SHORTLIST

730pm - Uruguay v Netherlands - team news important especially for the Dutch but I would lean towards laying Uruguay given the Dutch's current 36 match unbeaten run and the fact they have lost only 2 of their last 50 internationals.

In order to lay Uruguay, you would click the pink box, currently 2.6, and click on liability on the right of betfair and enter your usual backing stake. This means that you would lose your backing stake if Uruguay win, but if it is a Dutch win or draw, you would win the equivalent of a 1.59 return.

200 BEVERLEY - a quite pleasing 1.17 for 1/3 shot Mousie to place.

550 CLONMEL - Ordinary Man is the best price gapper of the day and a reasonable place only price, but dare we trust maiden hurdlers, especially in Ireland?

800 HAMILTON - forgetting the fact this is a seller, it is a perfect place only race. 4 under 33/1 in an 8 runner 3 place race, fremen is currently 1.1 to place - maybe slightly better odds with Moody tunes ? Illiquid place market as you can guess with 8 hours to go.

220 HAYDOCK - 7 runners and 3 places and 1.4 for Udubaa looks very good value given there is greater probability of his placing now he only has 4 to beat to place.

320 HAYDOCK - 4 under 12/1 here and Kitty Wells is 6/4 - - - - 5/1 price gapper for Cumani/Fallon. Around 1.3 to place, again it looks a good prospect.4th fav a non runner reduces the obvious rivals.

350 HAYDOCK - the problem I have with top heavy maiden markets is that rarely do the 1-2-3 in the market finish 1-2-3 in the race. Who may falter in such a tight head of the market? Wild Coco is the market leader at around 1.15 to place. If you feel this race will be 1-2-3 for the 3 under 25/1, then Thubiann at 1.6 is a great price.

240 YARMOUTH - another 7 runner and 3 place race.4 under 16/1 in a 7 runner race and again 3 places. This looks the best probability of the day. 1.3 for Locum tells you it is a handicap.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

So many good argument probability races today.

I would speculatively lay Uruguay today as Holland have only lost 2 internationals in their last 50 and are 36 unbeaten ( only 8 draws). Spoilers? - team news unknown - where is it being played ?

240 YARMOUTH - must be top of the list. 4 under 16/1 in a 7 runner race paying out 3 places. Default on Locum the fav?

800 HAMILTON is the next best probability race. 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 33/1 and 3 under 16/1 -superb stuff bar the fact it is a seller.

320 HAYDOCK - Kitty Wells looks primed to place. 6/4 - - - -5/1 price gapper, 4th fav non runner, 4 under 12/1

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