I am going to take a punt on Sweden this evening in light of the Finns recent appalling 1-0 win over San Marino. Strong at home , with a strong tidy squad, they should oblige.
Next best? Spain look strong in the final match for a while , although a long trip to Venezuela might see a slightly jaded side.
Brazil will play Ronaldo for a short while but the team I found looks very good.
Horse wise, Set me free surely? But unknown quantity in a 2nd fav who is a debutant and could be the proverbial dark horse.
*****ONE A DAY -
7pm - Sweden v Finland - back Sweden in the match odds at 1.38*****
2-1 to the Mexicans and the right match chosen as the French only managed a 1-1.
In their last 12 matches, Germans have won 9 and lost 3 - losing all 3 to USA ( bogey team?) In the wins, they score consistently - 3,4,7,5,5,2,8,2,5 and we know what sub 1.2 odds indicate - usually a win by 3 or 4 or more.
At home, again, the Germans are dominant with 10 wins in their last 12 and the 2 losses - yes against USA again! No draws in last 12 at home and last 12 overall.
3rd June saw a 5-0 drubbing of Italy, so Fraulein take this seriously.
Losses against Norway, Brazil and Canada recently for the Dutch ( and bear in mind Germany beat Canada 5-0 recently - good collateral form).
Losses away in last 12 to Canada ( twice) and Brazil is not too shabby. Drew 2-2 with England recently ( but needed a late penalty to draw)
Slight caution with friendlies. Germans so dominant in last friendly , scored 1 in first half and 4 in 2nd half so REACTIVE traders fear not if 0-0 at halftime. The 1.17 is illiquid on Betfair, but looks about right.
Correct score speculators? Try a 4-0, 5-0?
4pm - Lithuania U21 v Malta U21 - 1.44 home - Lithuania have lost 4 of their last 6 and you want me to back them at 1.44? Hmm. Maybe based on Malta winning only 1 of their last 12, and not winning any of last 11. Yes, last win v the mighty Albania 1-0 in August 2009. 2 draws on the trot last 2 matches. Lithuania have only won 2 of their last 12 at home, and have lost their last 3 at home. it may be that the opposition is stronger than Malta .
4 of Malta's last 7 matches have been 1-0 losses, and there was a 0-0 last time out v Finland in a qualifier which hints at some defensive solidity before eventually succumbing?
malta have conceded 1,1,1,1,2,1,0 in their last 7 matches ( 2 v France) so could conceivably keep it tight for a period.
0-0 for traders perhaps or a lay of Lithuania INITIALLY, not for the whole 90 minutes.
1-0 Lithuania scoreline may see some tradeable action?
6pm - Azerbaijan v Germany - 1.12 home - manager says Germans are " exhausted" and has had to make changes. No Schweinsteiger, Rolfes, Khedari, and Podolski, and The Germans may do an " England" with one up front - MArio Gomez. 4-0 and 6-1 in last 2 head to heads augurs well -they were both at home for Germany, and enough scored to suggest the gulf in class remains despite the changes to Germany. 1.12 hints at 4 or more being scored today. That might not occur with all the changes and with Germans away?
Azerbaijan have lost 6 of their last 7 overall with a sole 1-0 win against Turkey.Only 2 wins in last 12, the other against Luxembourg. Only one win at home in last 12 was that 1-0 v Turkey. Lost 2-0 to Germany last time they met at Azerbaijan and the goals were scored by absentees Schweinsteiger and possible absentee Klose.
Germany have only lost 1 of last 12 and that was a 2-1 loss v australia in a friendly. 8 wins and 3 draws came against Sweden, Italy and Denmark.
This looks all out a German win, but the 1.12 indicates they will replicate 4 or 6 scored in last 2 head to heads. This might not be the case today as the Germans are " exhausted" and have made many changes ( some forced through injury)
6pm - Belarus v Luxembourg - 1.16 home - 0-0 last time these 2 met at Luxembourg.Luxembourg have lost 5 and drawn 1 so far this campaign and Belarus are 2nd only to France having lost only 1. Belarus Euro matches have all been under 2.5 goals and Belarus have been unable to score more than 1. Infact, France scored their goal in the recent 1-1 draw.1,0,0,2,1,0,1 scored in their last 7 home matches - 2 scored against Albania. Luxembourg have only won one of their last 12 matches , a 2-1 home win over Slovakia.They lost 8 and drew 3 of the remaining.They have lost all of their last 6 away matches.Their last 2 wins away were against Belarus in 2007 and Switzerland in 2008. my knee jerk reaction is that this 1.16 is way too short for a Belarus side who have had trouble scoring. 8 first team regulars are out for Belarus which makes this 1.16 very layable initially.
7pm - Sweden v Finland - 1.38 home - my assessment of Finland ( and excuse the French) after their 1-0 win over San marino - Finland are shite! This is a qualifier and Sweden are a good side. They have only lost once in their last 12 matches( 4-1 to a Holland side who last lost in 1629 or something like that) overall and to offer a contrast, Sweden beat SanMarino 6-0, Finland beat them 1-0 last match.
More collateral form through Moldova - Sweden beat them 2-1 and 4-1 home and away last 2 matches, and Moldova beat Finland 2-0.
Sweden at home are very strong. One loss in 2009 against Denmark was a 1-0 and Kallstrom missed a penalty for the Swedes.
Since then it has been WWWWWWWDW - emphatic home form. The draw was 0-0 v Germany. Slight concern with level of opposition but they have the winning thread at home.
Finland are under a new manager and I, for one, expected them to spank San Marino, they merely clipped their ear with a hard fought 1-0 at odds of 1/25. finland have lost 5 in their last 12 overall to Estonia, Moldova, Hungary, Holland and Portugal. The latter 2 sides are wholly expected I suppose. Sweden have beaten Hungary and Moldova ,so again collateral form points to Swedish dominance.
Finland have only won 4 of their last 12 away matches against Azerbaijan, Malta, Turkey B and San Marino which really will have Sweden shaking in their boots.
Finland have won 2 of their last 3 away, both 1-0s so this could be an insurance bet this evening .
Sweden ( 12 points) need 3 points to close the gap on Holland ( 18 points) while Finland have a poor 6 points.
Possible spoilers - local derby of sorts could see the Finns raise their game - Ibrahimovic possible absence but Sweden won 4-1 last time without him - new Manager for Finland. It looks though as if Sweden will eventually win.
730pm - San Marino v Hungary - 1.04 - are San Marino improving defensively or was the 1-0 loss to Finland a sign that the Finns are really bad! We know all about San Marino, but in their last 3 matches, they have only lost 2-0 ( 86th minute for 2nd goal) v Moldova, 1-0 v Leichtenstein ( San Marino down to 10 men after 4 minutes), 1-0 v Finland. Coincidence?
Hungary smashed them 8-0 ( but then so did Finland before their 1-0 away). Hungary have not had a draw in their last 12 and losses came against Germany, Holland ( 3 times), England and Sweden - solid opponents.
Again no draw away from home for Hungary, they have won 3 of their last 4 away matches albeit 2 were friendlies.
like the Finn game, this is not a matter of them not winning, it is a matter of nailing the correct score. Like the Finn game where I advised 0-0 back initially, perhaps with this new found defensive attitude at home from San Marino, they can keep things tight. 2-0 could be a better scoreline to trade, with 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 possibles if odds allow.
San Marino are yet to score this campaign and have conceded 30 goals in 6 matches ( average of 5 goals a match)
930pm - Venezuela v Spain - 1.36 away - Spain really put USA to the sword with 3 in the first half, they look to be in great form . International Friendly and again I would like to see the Spanish side, but the 4-0 recent win over USA sees them in good heart. Venezuela have won only 4 of last 12 against Ecuador, Bolivia, Jamaica and guatemala. They have only won 1 of their last 6 at home, an 86th minute winner against Ecuador.Spain have lost only 2 of their last 12 , and they were friendlies against Portugal and Argentina. Venezuela are not in the same ball park!
Spain have won 6 of last 7. Again away from home, they have lost 2 of last 12, against the same teams. Spain have scored 3 and 4 in their 2 2011 away matches.
You don't know the team news -slight problem, nor the mentality of the Spanish who can down tools in some friendlies. Slight concern too with exhaustion for the Spanish who contain the majority of the Barca squad.
1am - USA v Canada - 1.31 home - CONCACAF GOLD CUP and USA must be near market leaders for the actual tournament. Lost 4-0 in a friendly v Spain latest has done their confidence a world of good - not! Only 2 wins in their last 12 were against Algeria 1-0 in the World Cup and 1-0 v South Africa in a recent friendly.7 draws in last 12. Lost last 2 . Canada have won only 2 of last 12 against Belarus and Honduras. A recent 2-2 draw with Ecuador was a tad lucky with a 92nd minute equaliser.
Ideally, you would expect USA to win this with the better squad.
150am - Brazil v Romania - 1.23 home -another friendly but logically the odds are right. Brazil have only won 1 of their last 4 friendlies, and that was against Scotland. They lost 1-0 v France and Argentina. Not much else I can look at . IS this being played in Brazil? If so, Brazil will not lose.
630 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Themanfromfraam, 2/1 Gem Mill, 6/1 Fruitfull Citizen, 8/1 The Iron Giant, 25/1 Graphex.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This largely revolves around THEMANFROMFRAAM, who was surprisingly beaten over hurdles at Fontwell last week but remains thrown in on his chase win there the time before. Gem Mill is the obvious alternative, having already found improvement for Peter Bowen.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
Theman is still ahead of the handicapper and was caught out last time ( but still placed)
200 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Lexi´s Prince, 5/2 Whisky Bravo, 4/1 Ingleby Angel, 6/1 Red Socks, 14/1 Cataract, 16/1Roger Sez, 20/1 Only Orsenfoolsies, 50/1 King Laertis.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This modest maiden can go to LEXI'S PRINCE who stepped up markedly on his debut effort when fifth behind some promising types at Haydock last time. Whisky Bravo is feared most.[Adrian Cook]
Always worth seeing if we can get something from these 8 runner races - 3 places and 5 under 20/1 should shorten the field. Market mover is Ingleby Angel into fav now.
445 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Set Me Free, 5/1 Born To Shine, 14/1 Bella Montagna, 33/1 Georgeoflancashire, 66/1 Into Mac, 100/1 Cono, 100/1 Pope Potter.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No strength in depth whatsoever and if there is no money for Alan Swinbank's newcomer Born To Shine, clear form choice SET ME FREE could go off at desperately short odds.[Adrian Cook] 3 under 33/1 and Born to Shine the obvious each way alternative , albeit a debutant.
420 SALISBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Istishaara, 5/1 Miss Chicane, 5/1 Saint Helena, 6/1 Isolate, 6/1 Love Over Gold, 8/1Goldtrek, 16/1 Beyeh, 16/1 Golden Aria.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ISTISHAARA, who ran well in a similar C&D contest on last month's return to action, has the strongest claims. Isolate can chase her home.[Andrew Mount]
Istishaara is now 6/4 - - - - 4/1 price gapper here - Richard hills onboard and this is another great 8 runner, 3 places race.
720 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sentimentaljourney, 11/4 Smart Freddy, 7/2 Sara´s Smile, 6/1 Captain Sully, 10/1Brompton Brow, 14/1 Dazzling Rita, 50/1 Sor Brook, 100/1 Gemini June, 100/1 Penyfan Man.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sentimentaljourney will do for many after his fast-finishing first effort over hurdles but SMART FREDDY is arguably the form pick and hopefully a break since February won't count against him.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
The front 2 cannot really be split at around 7/4 - MCCoy or Bass?
900 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Western Approaches, 4/1 Easter Fayre, 9/2 Blase Chevalier, 16/1 Top Rose, 20/1 Mckyla, 33/1 Midnight Myth, 33/1 Miss Matiz, 33/1 Musical Sigh, 50/1 Total Obsession, 66/1 Dalarna, 100/1 High Meadow Jo, 100/1Kaduna.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Blase Chevalier should not be underestimated while Easter Fayre should have a race in her sooner or later but the safest option appears to be WESTERN APPROACHES, who did the job well at Bangor.[Jonathan Neesom]
A big each way move for Midnight Myth in this race at a tasty price ( it is a bumper after all) but Western Approaches remains at 4/6 in a race where only 4 are under 20/1
But note the time of the race - a lot more tales to come from the market I suspect.
SHORTLIST
330pm - Germany (W) v Netherlands (W) - 1.17 home - I hate friendlies but I like German efficiency. It seems the only team that can beat the Germans is the USA ( beat them 3 times) - betting market totally illiquid which is a pity as that 1.17 is not the true odds.
6pm - Azerbaijan v Germany - 1.12 home - Germany should win despite their enforced changes ( injury) and changes through exhaustion. This is no must win as they are comfortable. They scored 10 in last 2 meetings and play a lone striker today in Mario gomez.Normally with 1.12 I go for goals but might be a little retiscent today with all the changes.
7pm - Sweden v Finland - 1.38 home - I like Sweden especially at home, and the finns must be in trouble if they can only beat San Marino 1-0 . Slight concerns today mentioned in initial analysis 1) local derby of sorts might see the Finns "man up" 2) new Finnish manager might have learnt from 1st match and we may see an improvement today 3) Ibra might be out for Sweden although they did not need him in their recent 4-1 win.
930pm - Venezuela v Spain - 1.36 away - Spain in friendlies - yikes! But beat USA 4-0 last time and this 1.36 could look big come the end of this match. We are betting blind as we do not know the team news.
150am - Brazil v Romania - 1.23 home - Right - where's the catch? This looks a steal! A provisional Brazil team off the internet
of Victor; Maicon, David Luiz, Lucio, Andre Santos; Sandro, Elias, Henrique (or Elano); Robinho, Neymar, Fred. and beware that Ronaldo will be playing between the 30 minute to 45 minute mark . Yes Ronaldo ( not the diving sissy but the real Ronaldo!) as a tribute .
630 FFOS LAS - Themanfromafraam has one last win in him? Then he should place should he not as he is well ahead of the handicapper. His last race was far too quick and again only 6 days rest may catch him out back over chase fences?
445 REDCAR - set me free is 1.18 to win and should do so, although last pleasing effort was over 7 furlongs on the all weather. Fallon takes over from conditional last time. 3 under 50/1 and the only rival would seem to be the unknown Born to shine.
430 SALISBURY - Istishaara is not 13/8 - - - -4/1 favourite in an 8 runner race for 3 places. A fillies handicap is the negative - 1.38 to place is the positive ( 3 places and 8 runners)
900 SOUTHWELL - WEstern Approaches looks a good call here , albeit 9 hours before the off and there is a big potential mover in Midnight Myth for value seeking speculators. I cannot recount the price for WEstern Approaches at the moment as the market is so illiquid
7pm - Sweden v Finland - 1.38 home - I have named the chinks in the armour here - local rivalry/new Finnish manager/Ibra possibly out but Sweden at home are good betting propositions and I hope the Finns showed their true capabilities in struggling against San marino because if so they will get mullered tonight. Potential saver on 1-0 to Finland? eg if you back Sweden with £100, cover that by backing Finland to win 1-0 for £4 at odds of 32 ( Finland's 2 away wins have been 1-0's)
930pm - Venezuela v Spain - 1.36 away - oh BLEEP! Torres ( cow's arse- banjo!) may take over from David Villa ( class act - goal machine) in this final friendly before Spain take a rest. I cannot get a definitive team sheet just yet
Casillas; Ramos, Pique, Albiol, Iraola; Bruno, Xabi Alonso, Iniesta, Silva; Torres, Llorente is mentioned on one site with the possibility of Xavi coming on at some stage.
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