12/6

With time of the essence I think the Murray match is a great opportunity so I'll stop the analysis and opt for him as it begins at midday

12pm MURRAY V TSONGA -BACK MURRAY IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.27 AEGON CHAMPIONSHIP - find under TENNIS COUPONS IN PLAY

Sea Moon was 1.16 Betfair SP and won.

330pm - Elfsborg v Mjallby - 1.47 home

HEAD TO HEADS

11.09.2010	D1	IF Elfsborg	2-0	Mjällby AIF
09.05.2010	D1	Mjällby AIF	2-0	IF Elfsborg

Wholly inconclusive head to heads. 2 matches -2 identical scorelines - 2 different winners. The last 2-0 win for elfsborg saw Mjallby get a man sent off, and a subsequent penalty for Elfsborg. Their 2nd goal came in the 92nd minute - this is not as impressive as the 2-0 looks on paper.

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 14th in the Swedish League. Both teams have played 10 matches. Elfs go top provisionally with a win today, although top team have played 9 matches only.Mjallby are on 11 points and have won only 3 of their 10 matches this season.

HOME TEAM - ELFSBORG -

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWW - draw was against 9th placed AIK. Elfsborg have scored 2 3 times and 3 twice at home. An element of consistency.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDLWWWLWW - the aberrations coming away from home.

GOAL TRENDS - all over 2.5 goals at home so far. They have conceded in 4/5 home matches so far this season - 3-2 home win against 2nd bottom ( playing 3rd bottom today) may make them vulnerable to conceding again at home.

STREAKS - 3 match home winning streak scoring 3-2-3. No defeat in 5 at home.No draw in 7 - in fact only one draw in all 10 played this season.

AWAY TEAM - MJALLBY

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLD-win against 11th place and draw against 5th. 2 of the 3 losses were only 1-0's and one was against 4th ( playing 3rd today) Have only played 2 of the top 5 away , losing 1-0 and drawing 0-0. A small sample admittedly.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLDWLLWD - wholly inconsistent from Mjallby , and inconsistency does not sit well with traders as they could perform today unexpectedly. Against the top 5 home and away, we have seen 3 1-0 results and a 0-0 , which is not in keeping with Elfsborg's ability to score 3 or 2 in all home matches so far this season.

GOAL TRENDS - 40% overs away from home. Have failed to score in 80% of away matches.Have kept a clean sheet in their last 2 matches and failed to score in 3 of their last 4 matches ( the exception an unexpected 3-0 win for Mjallby!)

STREAKS - no win in 2 away

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is a typical match where the stats are not congruent. Elfsborg scoring 2 /3 at home, yet Mjallby's matches against the top 5 home and away are 2 1-0 defeats, a 1-0 win and a 0-0.

Mjallby have been unable to score away from home in 4 of their 5 matches played which might signal an advantage for Elsborg. A 0-0 initial back to lay trade looks on the cards as I envision a tight match early on. Perhaps a 1-0 scoreline for Elfsborg might be backable initially. Elfsborg have conceded in 4 of their 5 matches this season at home, but this is in direct contrast with Mjallby being unable to score in 4 of their 5 away matches.

A tricky match to weigh up. If we look at Elfsborg solely, then over 2.5 goals has a chance as they score at home, and are more likely to concede as well, but if we focus on the small sample of matches Mjallby have played against the top 5, a 0-0 or 1-0 is the most likely scoreline.

410pm - Ekranas v Dainava - 1.12 - Flora yesterday again showed that these short odds can produce readable correct scores ( 3-0 yesterday). More of the same today?

20.03.2011	D1	Dainava Alytus	0-3	FK Ekranas
12.09.2001	D1	Dainava Alytus	2-0	FK Ekranas

Only 1 very recent head to head here saw a comfortable away win for Ekranas. All of the other head to heads were from 2001!

This is the Lithuanian League top flight. Ekranas are top after 12 matches with 9 wins and 3 draws. So immediately we are looking at the win, and with the odds at 1.12, at the scoreline. Could be another win to nil, and those are the best matches with which to do correct score betting.

WDWDDWWWW for Ekranas in the league so far is great form.REcent draws came against 4th and 7th in the league.

WDDWWW at home recently 2-2 draw against 10th saw opponents a man down take a 2-1 lead, not wholly impressive at all.

Ekranas have had to play a lot of Cup and International Baltic League matches too recently. Will that take its toll? LAst Ekranas home match saw a 7-0 win over 11th ( of 12)

Dainava seem to be newcomers to the league as a previous head to head with Ekranas was back in 2001. Currently 9th in the league, they have played 12, win 4, drawn 2, lost 6.

LLLWWWDWDLLL so far for Dainava - Last match was a 6-0 home loss to 2nd in the league which backs up goals for 1.12 Ekranas today. Wins against 10th, 7th, 6th and 12th ( of 12) for DAinava - they have yet to breach the upper echelons of the league.

Last 2 losses were against 2nd and 3rd , 2-0 and 6-0 so expectation for a clean sheet against top side today?

1-1 draw with 4th and 0-0 draw with 5th may bring slight concern but are the top 3 a step up?

The odds look about right here and Dainava's last 2 matches augur well ( defeats to 2nd and 3rd without scoring). Their draws against 4th and 5th though - can they be dismissed?

Ekranas are unbeaten this season and have a 75% chance of winning and a 25% chance of drawing based on current results. Back the 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 today ( if odds allow?)

11pm - El Salvador v Cuba - 1.3 home - 2 of the worst performers in the Concacaf Gold Cup but it would seem Cuba are the worst of the worst! In this Cup, we can only really go by results in the tournament.

Cuba have lost 5-0 to Mexico and Costa Rica.

El Salvador have lost 5-0 to Mexico too, but drew 1-1 with Costa Rica so make of that what you will. Cuba have been unable to score in 2, and El Salvador have scored, erm, 1! They were unlucky to lose to Costa Rica -a 95th minute equaliser! Not quite a match to stop the nation. El Salvador will get a quarter final berth with a win, which could be the incentive needed for a narrow win?

12pm - Tsonga v Murray - 1.27 for Murray at home as well? Murray is 4-1 in head to heads. Murray has won the last 3, and the last 4 sets he has played against Tsonga have been all 6-2 - fairly comprehensive. The win over Roddick was very impressive and that ankle injury from France seems consigned to the past.

On grass at Wimbledon in 2010, the first 2 sets were 7-5, with the first set going to Tsonga. 4th v 19th in the world. This should be a Murray win here all being well, and with home advantage. First set might be a 7-5 and go with serve until a late break or might be a 7-6?

3pm - Berlocq v Dolgopolov - 1.12 - Dolg is a player I like and have backed at odds much higher than today's. He should oblige with ease. A tennis star of the future. Only 1 head to head was a 2011 Acapulco win for Dolgopolov. He has shot up the rankings now to 21 , and Berlocq is at 58.

235 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Rockview Diamond, 4/1 Gin Rummy, 9/2 El Mcglynn, 6/1 Nini Ok, 10/1Kingdomforthebride, 12/1 Coppertop, 14/1 Rambling Rake, 16/1 Catfromtherock, 33/1 South South West.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROCKVIEW DIAMOND has been notably unlucky to date and can deservedly get off the mark in this, for all that Gin Rummy and El McGlynn should ensure that it wont be easy for him. [Kevin Blake]

Rockview Diamond has run very well in his 3 runs to date and should place .

335 CORK

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Inxile, 11/4 Tiddliwinks, 8/1 Glor Na Mara, 10/1 Blue Dahlia, 12/1 Lechevalier Choisi, 14/1Liberty Lady, 16/1 Oor Jock, 33/1 Calm Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Despite the concerns about the ground, INXILE is going to be very difficult to peg back from his good draw. Tiddliwinks is undoubtedly his main danger. [Kevin Blake]

A listed race at Cork sees the Nicholls raiding party on Inxile. Good to firm ground a slight niggle, but this is an 8 runner race for 3 places with Inxile and Tiddlewinks both around 13/8 with next best at 10/1

215 DONCASTER

BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Tillietudlem, 6/1 Bajan Parkes, 7/1 Mohawk Ridge, 10/1 Sancho Panza, 11/1 Aegean Destiny, 12/1 Aeneid, 12/1 Eastern Magic, 12/1 John Forbes, 12/1 Shifting Gold, 12/1 Silent Lucidity, 14/1 Bright Sparky, 14/1Cornish Beau, 14/1 Think Its All Over, 14/1 Visions Of Johanna, 20/1 Lure Of The Night.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TILLIETUDLEM (nap), given a break since being pulled up over hurdles, has gone well fresh in the past and is well enough weighted to repeat last year's success. Mohawk Ridge may pose most problems.[Paul Johnson]

Tilliedudlem was a 3 figure rated horse running in class 6 flat handicaps last year and he won loads of races in a short period of time. He appears in a class 5 0-70 apprentice handicap here and at 5/1 might be worth a punt if ok after a 218 day absence.

525 ROSCOMMON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Alpine Eagle, 7/4 Spill The Beans, 9/2 Der Spieler, 7/1 Kilflora, 16/1 Sharekan, 25/1 Senior Again, 33/1 Dunegan Castle, 33/1 Valiquest.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If ALPINE EAGLE can produce a performance in keeping with his best hurdles form he should master Spill The Beans who has the advantage of having Ruby Walsh aboard. In receipt of 6lb, Der Spieler could test the pair providing that he jumps adequately at the first attempt. [Alan Sweetman]

4 under 33/1 here in this novices chase

SHORTLIST

410pm - Ekranas v Dainava - 1.12 - this should be a straightforward win to nil but again there is zero interest in market makers on Betfair which is a pity.

11pm - El Salvador v Cuba - 1.3 home - 2 of the poorest teams but Cuba are terrible and El SAlvador have something to aim for with potential qualification to the next round

12pm - Tsonga v Murray - 1.27 - at Queens , Murray could win this one , and has a great head to head record.

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