Monday 6 June 2011

6/6

I am not taken by Albirex's recent away from and inability to score until very very late in matches, so will dismiss them. Golden Call? I want to see the market nearer 550 as this is a bumper but I am sure this horse will run very well. Rajnagan looks like he has one more race in him in this handicap hurdle and the hatrick is a possibility with a clear round ( remember Fashionable Gal?) - Tongue tie back on and could be a good placer.
In the football, the limited Toulon tournament form points to easy afternoons for both France and Mexico, with the latter it seems favoured in the market against a China youth side conceding 3 and 4 and not scoring. Kick off is at 5pm and a hope that the market is more liquid as there is 4 1/2 hours to go.
I hope the markets are liquid, and I will opt for the Mexicans today

*****ONE A DAY - 5pm - China Youth v Mexico Youth - back Mexico Youth in the match odds at 1.22 -try to place bet nearer to 5pm as the markets will hopefully have fleshed out, or use a bookmaker ( no liquidity issues)*****




It seems the Irish behaved themselves yesterday and there were no shocks in the FAI Cup.

HEAD TO HEADS

Albirex Niigata (S)5-0Tanjong Pagar Utd
21.07.2004D1Tanjong Pagar Utd0-3Albirex Niigata (S)
11.05.2004D1Albirex Niigata (S)1-1Tanjong Pagar Utd
02.03.2004D1Tanjong Pagar Utd0-3Albirex Niigata (S)

8 goals in the last 2 matches without reply. Although the most recent head to head was 16th Feb this year and quite emphatic. That is all we can really go on.

LEAGUE POSITION - 11th ( off 12) v 4th. Tanjong have only managed 6 points in 15 matches.

HOME TEAM - TANJONG

RECENT HOME FORM - DLDLLDL - let's look who the draws were against - 12th, 10th and 3rd. The draw with 3rd was a 2-2 draw with Singapore Armed Forces which was a real surprise and unexpected by all. The other draws were against bottom 3 sides. Losses at home v 1st, 2nd, 6th and 8th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLDLLLLDWLL - the win - against Woodlands Wellington and a 0-1 win with a 79th minute winner.

GOAL TRENDS - Average 0.43 scored and 2.43 conceded at home.Have won none at home.

STREAKS - 9 home matches without a win.

AWAY TEAM - ALBIREX

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWWLL - no draws away in 2011. Losses against 1st, 2nd and 6th.Wins against 8th, 10th and 12th augurs well for game against 11th although win against Woodlands was only a 1-0 ( 12th) with an 86th minute goal and win against 8th was 1-0 with an 81st minute winner.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWWDLWWLWW - recent 2 losses against 1st and 6th

GOAL TRENDS - 1.5 scored, 1 conceded away on average.

STREAKS - 6 without a draw overall and 10 without a draw away from home.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Tanjong have surprised S.A.F. with a 2-2 draw and it must be noted Albirex only beat a couple of teams recently by 1-0 scorelines with 81 and 86th minute goals. It took them 86 minutes to break down Woodlands who are a dire team, so slight concern with Albirex away. However, the 5-0 head to head must augur well surely?

145pm - Selangor v Perlis - 1.14 home - Malaysian League and nothing in a quick glimpse of Selangor's form hints at them scoring 3/4 today.
5pm - China Youth v Mexico Youth - 1.22 away - the annual Toulon Tournament for the youngsters and all we can go by is the form at this tournament where China Youth have lost 3-0 to Hungary and 4-0 to the French. How do we equate the Mexicans with these 2 teams?
Mexico Youth lost 4-1 to France and beat Hungary 2-0. There is collateral form, therefore, with Hungary - is that enough to convince us to oppose the Chinese today?
5pm - France Youth v Hungary Youth - 1.4 home - as above, only recent form at the Tournament is worth looking at. France youth are at home and enjoying it, 4-1 against Mexico and 4-0 against China thus far. A feeling that Hungary are vulnerable if Mexico can beat them, and France in turn can beat Mexico so comprehensively. In the context , then, 1.4 seems value?
2am - Jamaica v Grenada - 1.29 home - the Concacaf Gold Cup and clearly the teams involved are taking it seriously with Mexico scoring 5 last night .

1-1 in most recent meeting perhaps a slight worry. Will the Premiership contingent play for Jamaica? Jamaica's odds today reflect a scoreline more in keeping with the 2008 head to heads.

500 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Junoob, 5/2 Zakon, 7/2 Satwa Dream, 12/1 Oculist, 12/1 Rowan Ridge, 16/1 Dhampas, 25/1Miss Excel, 50/1 Officer Lily.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: JUNOOB has needed a couple of races to learn his trade but there were very encouraging signs at Goodwood last time and he should be more streetwise today. He can improve past Zakon.[Chris Wilson]

8 runners and 3 places and currently 3 under 14/1 - a maiden race so slight negative as regards these horses still being on a learning curve.


520 LISTOWEL

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Annacarton, 9/4 Jamsie Hall, 5/1 Chrisdonlady, 6/1 The Baler, 10/1 Emergency Cover, 12/1Code Of Silence, 16/1 Autumn Day, 33/1 Coffey´s Pub, 33/1 Strand Street, 50/1 Ardghallan, 50/1 Strategic Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A suitable opportunity for ANNACARTON to add to his tally here. The ones most likely to trouble him are Jamsie Hall and Chrisdonlady. [Alan Sweetman]

It'll certainly be good fun at Listowel , Co Kerry , today but the card is a devilish one. Annacarton has Miss Katie Walsh onboard and could run into a place with a clear round. Hunter Chase

550 LISTOWEL

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Thewesthowaya, 4/1 Golden Call, 5/1 Dance The Devil, 6/1 Dingaling, 13/2 Bless N´ject, 10/1 Mountain Retreat, 10/1 Trabajo, 12/1 Eyesontheprize, 14/1 Its Ironic, 50/1 Miss Mexico, 50/1 Patchin Jack, 66/1 Carrig Shot, 100/1 Cool Stream, 100/1 Oso Crafty.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Thewesthowaya looks the pick of the Mullins pair and will consequently prove a popular choice, but GOLDEN CALL shaped like a horse with a big future himself in winning at Tipperary and that form has been franked.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

This could be a battle of the ladies here - Nina Carberry and Katie Walsh. You will recall I made mention of newcomer Golden Call when first seen at Tipperary last time out. The horse won well and could be the value call here with experience in this bumper. As ever, the market will tell all nearer the off.

440 NAAS

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Teolane, 4/1 Princess Sinead, 6/1 Naseem Sea, 7/1 Crimson Sunrise, 8/1 Basantee, 10/1Homecoming Queen, 12/1 Guru Girl, 16/1 Gold Lace, 33/1 Feathers And Bows.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Teolane is a very promising filly, but this drop in trip makes her vulnerable and PRINCESS SINEAD could well be able to confirm form with her from their meeting over this C&D last month. [Kevin Blake]

THe trainer likes Teolane and touted her as an Ascot horse. The market also likes Teolane today, into 4/5 market leader for Bolger/Manning. Still learning but impressive last time out and could come on again.

Slight concern that Teolane only ran 8 days ago and is already dropping in trip.

245 NEWTON ABBOTT

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rajnagan, 5/1 Call To Arms, 8/1 Baccalaureate, 10/1 Olivino, 12/1 Nothing Is Forever, 12/1Sweet World, 14/1 Swiss Guard, 20/1 Rampant Ronnie, 20/1 Tignello.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RAJNAGAN (nap) would have won with another 7lb on his back at Uttoxeter so the hat-trick looks a distinct possibility. Call To Arms could chase him home again.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Big price gapper here on a hatrick in a handicap. Winning runs in handicaps ( especially hurdles) will end eventually but the market points out that it may not be today.8/11 - - - - -- 6/1 in the live betting market.

345 NEWTON ABBOTT

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Joker Choker, 3/1 Lava Lamp, 7/2 Big Robert, 6/1 Maadraa, 10/1 De Luain Gorm, 20/1Resolute Road, 33/1 Narcisco, 50/1 Fisberry, 50/1 Shared Secret, 100/1 Jasper Cliff, 100/1 Jigsaw Financial, 200/1 Cruise In Luxury, 200/1 Telescopic.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Joker Choker has more on his plate this time under a double penalty and LAVA LAMP is a sporting alternative over a trip that should benefit him.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

6 under 33/1 here - these 6 for the 3 places? Lava Lamp and Jokerchoker currently both 15/8


SHORTLIST

1230pm - Tanjong Pagar v Albirex Niigata (S) - 1.21 away - the gulf between these 2 teams was made clear in last head to heads. Was the 2-2 draw with S.A.F. by Tanjong a sign of the Armed Forces's weakness and not Tanjong's strengths. Slight concern with Albirex only beating Woodlands 1-0.

5pm - China Youth v Mexico Youth - 1.22 away - China have found life difficult here with 3-0 and 4-0 losses. Can Mexico continue? It looks as if China have trouble scoring so it is hoped Mexico will score.

5pm - France Youth v Hungary Youth - 1.4 home - France have scored 4 goals in previous 2 matches and the 1.4 looks very reasonable here - but the market on Betfair is totally illiquid so better perhaps to take bookmaker prices without a liquidity issue.

550 LISTOWEL - first race to be shortlisted today as I think goldencall could be the value here to place in this bumper. Thewesthowaya is the favourite here but Golden Call just looks a better profile of horse. Betfair SP would have to be taken as the market is wholly illiquid.

440 NAAS - Teolane is already odds on. Any concern with running 8 days ago and drop in trip here? But the market is very confident and the trainer really likes this horse.

245 NEWTON ABBOTT - Rajnagan looks primed to win again, and worse case surely place with a clear round/ Ahead of the handicapper?

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1230pm - Tanjong Pagar v Albirex Niigata (S) - 1.21 away - Albirex have scored 6,5,1,2,4 in their last 5 matches which is very impressive. I am a little concerned with their away form. They have only scored 2 goal in their last 3 away matches - an 81st minute winner, did not score against Hougang, and a 93rd minute consolation against Tampines - stark contrast to recent exploits.


5pm - China Youth v Mexico Youth - 1.22 away - Mexico should exploit the feeling that China are out of their depth here and unable to score. Illiquid market but if it fleshes out this looks a good bet.

5pm - France Youth v Hungary Youth - 1.4 home - again suffering from a lack of liquidity here on Betfair, although plenty of 1.33 at the bookies. Collateral form should see France win here, they have scored 4 in each of their last 2 matches

550 LISTOWEL - I have no idea what the place only price will be, which probably means this will not be the one a day, but a speculative punt on Golden Call again could pay off today.

245 NEWTON ABBOTT -Rajnagan looks like he has one more hoorah in him today. prophetic words from the analyst of the last win "connections could do with getting him out again fairly quickly before the handicapper exacts his revenge." That is precisely what connections have done and the market makes Rajnagan warm order to follow up ( and place at least surely?)








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