23/6

The under 17's FIFA World Cup throws up 2 matches this evening which, if this was the first team, I would weigh in with. But results at the World Cup have thrown up some huge surprises. Brazil though are playing at home(ish) and Australia are relative newcomers at this level . Is this enough, or will the Aussies frustrate?

Ferrer v Harrison - Ferrer is drifting at present to 1.16 currently but 6th v 122nd. Surely over 5 sets, Ferrer must come through?

robson v Sharapova - 1.03 and 1.16 for 2-0 sets. Surely Robson cannot take a set off World number 6 as 254th in the world.

Wozniaki v razzano - 2-0 in sets is another obvious one today. 1st v 96th in the world

210 WARWICK looks the best race of the day. Slight concern it is a 3 year old maiden. Sea Soldier has had 3 runs, and most recently 16 days ago where he came 2nd. In a race where 3 only are under 25/1, I hope he can place again.

*****ONE A DAY 220 WARWICK- SEA SOLDIER TO PLACE ONLY - 3 under 20/1 I hope Sea Soldier replicates comeback 2nd 16 days ago. Please wait til nearer the off or use Betfair SP*****

2 short prices but no problems with either and they made around a 1.15. A pity my confident research in the Ruskies did not result in a bet as both sides won , and I was particularly pleased to have noticed how Zenit's opponents keep things tight, but do not score. Result? - 1-0 win to Zenit - the value of research.

4pm - Jordan v Korea Republic - 1.4 away - Under 23's -AFC Olympics Asian Qualifiers. A lot to play for and as I showed yesterday with a red hot Spain u21 v Belarus u21, we saw a Belarus side taking the lead and holding on for a draw in a Semi Final. South Korea have won the last 2 head to heads easily, 4-0 and 3-1, the last in an Olympic qualifier on 19th June this year. Yet again it is difficult to weigh up these 2 teams as they play against sides from different regions of the world. South Korea are unbeaten in their last 9, 3 wins , 2 draws, 4 wins . South Korea have scored 4,3,3,4,1,3,3 in those wins. And the hope is they will replicate that as they already have recently against Jordan.

6pm - Helsingborgs v Trelleborgs - 1.48 home

HEAD TO HEADS

29.05.2011	Cup	Helsingborgs IF	2-1	Trelleborgs FF
02.03.2011	CF	Trelleborgs FF	1-3	Helsingborgs IF
25.08.2010	D1	Helsingborgs IF	1-0	Trelleborgs FF
05.04.2010	D1	Trelleborgs FF	0-0	Helsingborgs IF
27.09.2009	D1	Trelleborgs FF	4-2	Helsingborgs IF
18.05.2009	D1	Helsingborgs IF	2-2	Trelleborgs FF

Helsingborgs have won the last 3 head to heads but one was a friendly and the other a cup match. The match that counted, a league match, saw a 1-0 Historically tight encounters at Helsingborgs between these 2.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 12th of 16th. Helsingborgs are 1 point behind top side, and have 2 games in hand so are in decent nick.Trelleborgs have only won 4 of 12.

HOME TEAM - HELSINGBORGS

RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWW - 3 1-0 results, a 1-1 and what seems an anomolous 3-0. 1-0's against 1st, 8th and 13th.1-1 draws against 4th and 9th

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDDWLWDD - only 1 win in last 4.Last 3 scorelines 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 -are Helsingborgs having trouble here scoring?

GOAL TRENDS - 17% over 2.5 goals albeit in a limited 5 matches at home.Have kept clean sheets in 67% of matches and scored in all home matches. Have kept clean sheets in 4 of 6 home matches( 1st, 5th, 8th, 13th)

Have scored in 10 of 11 matches.

STREAKS - 6 at home without defeat.Have drawn their last 2.

AWAY TEAM - Trelleborgs

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDWDL - wins against 5th and 15th.Draws against 10th and 16th , both 1-1's.Losses against 3rd and 4th both 4-2 and 4-0. Are Trelleborgs vulnerable to top 5 away?

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWDWWWDLLL - Trelleborg have conceded 4 in their last 2 matches against 3rd away and 9th at home. 2 wins at home, 2 wins away.

GOAL TRENDS - 50% overs away from home.Have conceded in 10 of their last 12 matches.Have scored in 10 of their 12 matches this season.

STREAKS - 4 overall without a win.3 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - are Trelleborg vulnerable against the top 5away. They have conceded 4 goals in both matches against 3rd and 4th. Helsingborg are unbeaten at home, but 3 wins were 1-0's and 2 draws were 1-1. Very tight! Helsingborgs have scored in 10 of 11 matches this season and Trelleborg have scored in 10 of 12 this season.

Limited matches to work with. Perhaps back a 0-0 initially and 1-1 scoreline to trade?

6pm - Malmo FF v Gefle - 1.56 home

HEAD TO HEADS

15.08.2010	D1	Malmö FF	2-0	Gefle IF
28.03.2010	D1	Gefle IF	1-3	Malmö FF
24.09.2009	D1	Gefle IF	0-3	Malmö FF
29.04.2009	D1	Malmö FF	0-0	Gefle IF

Malmo seem to have the measure of gefle , scoring consistently 3-3-2.

LEAGUE POSITION -7th v 5th and it is the lower positioned team which is the favourite.

HOME TEAM - MALMO

RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWW - wins against 3rd, 8th, 15th and 16th. Loss against 10th 0-2

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWLLDWDLW - losses away against 1st and 6th

GOAL TRENDS - 40% over 2.5 goals at home.

STREAKS - 5 at home without a draw.2 match home winning streak.

AWAY TEAM - GEFLE

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDLWD - draws against 8th, 9th and 13th - wins away to 3rd and 6th., loss against 2nd.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWWLDWLDWDDW - 3 0-0's in last 5 matches a concern? 0-0's away to 8th and 9th and home against 14th and 15th.

GOAL TRENDS - 33% over 2.5 goals away. Have kept a clean sheet in the last 5 matches. Have failed to score in 4 of last 6 matches.

STREAKS - 5 overall without defeat because 5 clean sheets on the trot.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is not a straightforward match and we do not need to get involved if there are no standout stats or conclusions. Will Gefle continue their strong recent defensive displays which has seen 5 clean sheets on the trot.

9pm - Australia U17 v Brazil U17 - 1.25 away - a look at yesterday's U17 results and you will recognise that this Tournament is very hard to read and not a betting medium. But hey, this is BRazil - right? 3-0 win against Denmark for Brazil and 2-1 for Aussies against Ivory Coast. Likely that Brazil will be layable initially and may see it through in 90.

9pm - Burkina Faso U17 v Germany U17 - 1.22 away - as above. Looking yesterday, USA lost to Uzbekistan, Uruguay scored a last gasp winner against the might of Rwanda. 6-1 German win against Ecuador and 1-0 loss for Birkino against Panama. recognising that this u17 world cup is very unpredictable, the Germans look the best betting proposition. Birkino Faso are African Champions at u17 level.

9pm - Selfoss v Vikingur Olafsvik - 1.51 home

HEAD TO HEADS

13.08.2009	D2	Vikingur Olafsvik	1-6	UMF Selfoss
05.06.2009	D2	UMF Selfoss	3-0	Vikingur Olafsvik
29.08.2008	D2	Vikingur Olafsvik	4-3	UMF Selfoss
22.06.2008	D2	UMF Selfoss	4-0	Vikingur Olafsvik

Totally dominant and 2 wins at home without conceding.

LEAGUE POSITION - Icelandic 2nd division. 2nd against 9th after 7 games

HOME TEAM SELFOSS

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWW - only 4 matches - all over 2.5 goals with ease.Losses against 1st and 4th and wins against 10th and 12th ( of 12). Playing 9th today, and wins against 10th and 12th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLDWWW - last 3 wins have 4,3,3 goals scored .

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 clean sheet at home.2.5 scored, 1.75 conceded at home on average albeit a very limited number of matches.

STREAKS - Unbeaten in last 4, scored 4,3,3 in last 3 matches against 12th, 6th, 10th.

AWAY TEAM - VIKINGUR

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDW - loss against 4th, draw against top and win against bottom ( after 7 matches of course)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDDDWW - losses against 5th at home, 4th away, draws against 7th, 1st, 11th , 2 1-1 draws and a 0-0.Wins 2-0 against bottom away, and 2-1 against 6th at home. Viking were leading in the 2 1-1 draws.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 of the 7 matches under 2.5 goals. Average of 1 scored and 1 conceded overall so far this season albeit in a very limited number of matches.

STREAKS - 6 games without a loss in a row.3 away without a loss

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Head to heads immediately point to goals and Selfoss winning to nil. We have only 7 matches to work on. Do we take the head to heads as a safe point to back up the favouratism for Selfoss?

WIMBLEDON

12pm -

Halep v S Williams - 1.08 Serena - 58th v 28th in the world. No head to heads

Ivanovic v Danilidou - 1.13 Ivanovic

Johansson v Goerges - 1.14 Goerges - 70th v 16th and johansson was less than impressive against Heather Watson yesterday and showed some temperament which could see her beaten against a better ranked player who has beaten her in the French Open in 2 straight sets.

Wickmayer v Tatishvili - 1.16 Wickmayer - 19th v 118th and Wickmayer has 2-0 in head to head on clay without dropping a set. 1pm

Anderson v Djokovic - 1.02 Djok - 36th v 2nd in the world 2-1 head to heads for Djoko - have played in 2011 and won both in 2 straight sets . 115pm

Cetkovska v A Radwanska - 1.1 Rad

Mello v Llodra - 1.12 Llodra - 89th v 35th

Nalbandian v Haider Maurer - 1.15 Nalbandian - 23rd v 78th -no head to heads. 3pm

Dimitrov v Tsonga - 1.16 Tsonga - 62nd v 19th -1-0 to Tsonga in head to heads straight sets on hard. 315pm

Ferrer v Harrinson - 1.15 Ferrer - 6th v 122nd in the world. Expect a win for Ferrer , not necessarily a 3-0? 415pm

Mannarino v Federer - 1.01 - 55th v 3rd in the World - 3-0 sets so far for 1.01 shots at Wimbledon (Murray was 1.03) - no head to heads 5pm

Robson v Sharapova - 1.03 Sharapova - 254th v 6th and this should surely be a 2-0 to Sharapova? Possible that Robson will put up a "plucky Brit" display? 515pm

Bartoli v Dominguez Lino - 1.05 Bart - 9th v 48th - Dominguez has won sole head to head on clay in 2007.

Wozniacki v Razzano - 1.04 Woz - 2-0 last time she was out and priced again to do the business with a minimum of fuss.1st v 96th 4-0 in head to heads without dropping a set. On grass in 2009 at Eastbourne, 7-6, 7-5 - 2 very tight sets. But has Woz simply improved dramatically since? 235 FFOS LAS

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 First In The Queue, 5/2 Lava Lamp, 11/4 Sorcillera, 11/2 King´s Realm, 12/1 Not In The Clock, 33/1 Union Zak, 50/1 Oscar Sierra, 100/1 Hi Wycombe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LAVA LAMP was at his best when visored on the Flat last year and may have more to offer with the headgear tried for the first time in this sphere. He is preferred to First In The Queue.[Frank Carter]

4 under 14/1 here and an ideal race of 8 runners and 3 places, albeit a novices hurdle.

800 HAMILTON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Striking The Wind, 3/1 Muffin Mcleay, 4/1 Shalloon, 10/1 Dancing Paddy, 33/1Goninodaethat, 66/1 Ebony Breeze, 100/1 Hard Rok.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to draw any firm conclusions from the jockey bookings for Mark Johnston's duo butSTRIKING THE WIND has the benefit of experience and if seeing out the trip should be well up to winning a maiden like this.Muffin McLeay looks the danger.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 under 25/1 and Mark Johnston fav ( he has 2 horses in this race)

220 WARWICK

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kawssaj, 2/1 Sea Soldier, 9/2 Logans Legend, 20/1 Wordiness, 33/1 The Buska, 50/1 Poppet´s Joy, 66/1 Isdaal, 66/1 Minety Lass, 66/1 Phlorian.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KAWSSAJ (nap) shaped as though this trip could suit when second over 1m on his debut and can provide Kremlin House with a second successive victory in this race at the main expense of Sea Soldier.[Paul Johnson]

3 under 20/1 makes this an ideal race, particularly for a speculative place back of Sea Soldier? A 2 year old maiden is the main bone of contention.

SHORTLIST

4pm - Jordan v Korea Republic - 1.4 away -consistently score 3 or more, have beaten Jordan twice, once in June 3-1 and Korea Republic just look too good? Trust under 23's though in a Potential Olympic qualifier. Highly illiquid.

6pm - Helsingborgs v Trelleborgs - 1.48 home - 2nd in the league, only 1 point behind leaders but 2 games in hand. Potential goalscoring issues. I cannot see them losing, so perhaps back 0-0 insurance bet?

9pm - Australia U17 v Brazil U17 - 1.25 away - perhaps over 1.5 goals at 1.17 can help to cover a potential shock? this World Cup has seen plenty of shocks in matches where teams seem to be mismatched.

9pm - Burkina Faso U17 v Germany U17 - 1.22 away - German efficiency? As I say above, this looks a mismatch on paper, but at this under 17 level, Burkino Faso are African champions, and we have seen the good performances of the likes of Rwanda.

9pm - Selfoss v Vikingur Olafsvik - 1.51 home - last met 2009 and scored 3 and 6 in 2 wins. On head to heads, Selfoss look great at 1.51? Highly illiquid market.

315pm - Ferrer v Harrinson - 1.15 Ferrer - 6th v 122nd - huge gulf in rankings makes this 1.15 seem quite high

5pm - Robson v Sharapova - 1.03 Sharapova - 1.16 for 2-0 sets.254th v 6th and really Robson should not win a set here if Sharapova's

serve does not falter and Robson does not gain some " wings" from the home support.

515pm - Wozniacki v Razzano - 1.04 Woz - 1.22 again for 2-0 sets - it worked last time. 1st v 96th - there was a tight grass match 7-5

, 7-6 which is the slight concern to 2-0 sets.

235 FFOS LAS - 4 under 14/1 but 1.4 to place for the fav tells you this is far from clear cut. A nice price for a speculative bet but we are

dealing with not that good novice hurdlers

800 HAMILTON - Johnston horses first and 2nd in the betting with Striking the Wind odds on - 1.14 currently ( note race time)

220 WARWICK - looks the best race of the day - 1.06 to place for Kawssaj to place and 1.24 for Sea Soldier in a race where there are 3

under 20/1 and 4 under 50/1 Faith in Sea Soldier here today to finish in the first 3? Obviously Kawssaj is the one who should place with

ease

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

9pm - Australia U17 v Brazil U17 - 1.25 away - on paper this looks easy, but then so would Canada v england ( 2-2 draw) , USA v Uzbekistan( 1-2 win to uzbeks) -you get the idea. At this level there seems to be a lot more naivete and thus more open matches. Surely though the Brazilians can win here eventually. 1.17 for over 1.5 goals covers any potential shock.

9pm - Burkina Faso U17 v Germany U17 - 1.22 away - again on paper this is a walkover for the Germans, but at this level Burkino Faso are African Champions, and prior to the match against Ecuador, the Germans were not that prolific.

220 WARWICK - Sea Soldier perhaps worth the risk here in a race where 3 are under 20/1 and 4 under 50/1 . Kawssaj is obvious.

315pm - Ferrer v Harrinson - 1.15 Ferrer - surely the gulf in rankings -6th v 122nd, makes this 1.15 now very appealing.

5pm - Robson v Sharapova - 1.03 Sharapova - 1.16 for 2-0 sets - 254th v 6th and surely 2-0 sets is a goer here realistically.

515pm - Wozniacki v Razzano - 1.04 Woz - 1.22 again for 2-0 sets - another 2-0 a distinct possibility. My concern here is the last grass

match in 2009 7-5, 7-6.

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