HEAD TO HEADS
| 29.04.2011 | PR | Galway United | 0-1 | Shamrock Rovers | |
| 24.09.2010 | PR | Shamrock Rovers | 3-0 | Galway United | |
| 17.09.2010 | Cup | Shamrock Rovers | 6-0 | Galway United | |
| 18.07.2010 | PR | Galway United | 0-1 | Shamrock Rovers | |
| 07.05.2010 | PR | Shamrock Rovers | 2-0 | Galway United | |
| 26.03.2010 | PR | Galway United | 0-1 | Shamrock Rovers |
Always good to see a clean sweep in head to heads. The last 2 Shamrock home matches reflect today's odds.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 10th ( of 10) +20 goals v -34 goals.
HOME TEAM - SHAMROCK ROVERS
RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWWWWD - loss against 3rd 0-1 and draw against 4th 1-1 suggest Shamrock can cope well outside the top 4. Against 7th, 8th, 9th, Shamrock have scored 3 in each match at home.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDWLDWWDWDWLWWD - only 2 losses have come against the same team. 4 of the 5 draws have come away to top 7 sides ( albeit in a league of only 10)
GOAL TRENDS - 38% over 2.5 goals at home but remember this is a league of only 10. 50% clean sheets at home. 4 of the 5 matches home and away against bottom 3 have been easily over 2.5 goals, BUT away at Galway the result was only 1-0. This looks like a distinct split with predominantly under 2.5 goals against all of top 6 home and away, and against bottom 4 , 5 of 7 matches have been over 2,5 goals.
STREAKS - 5 at home without defeat.
AWAY TEAM - GALWAY UNITED
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLLLL - very poor run from Galway sees them bottom.Win was 1-0 away to Bohemians and draw was 1-1 against 9th ( of 10). Away to 4 of top 5 ( playing the 5th today in top team Shamrock) - the results are emphatic. Galway have lost 5-2, 2-0, 6-0, 3-0
RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLLLLLLL since 15th April.
GOAL TRENDS - 62% over 2.5 goals based more on concession rate than on Galway's scoring. Galway have failed to score in 50% of matches. 7 of the last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Galway have failed to score in 8 of their last 10 matches.
STREAKS - 5 match losing streak away, 11 overall. No win in 13 overall, no draw in 11 overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - 1.09 looks justified if you can trust Irish football as a betting medium - remember the recent Drogheda loss when all of the form pointed to a win! And remember that this is a league of 10 teams .
230 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Teolane, 6/1 Inetrobil, 8/1 Sajwah, 9/1 Illaunglass, 12/1 Lily´s Angel, 12/1 Samitar, 12/1Switcher, 16/1 Sweet Chilli, 33/1 Judas Jo, 40/1 Hidden Passion, 40/1 Luv U Forever, 66/1 Tip Top Gorgeous, 80/1Anakindalika, 80/1 Toffee Tart.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Only Hidden Passion has form on a soft surface and there are a number of unknown quantities in opposition - six of them yet to taste defeat - but TEOLANE sets a good standard on her Naas Listed win last week and Jim Bolger followed the same route here with his 2008 winner Cuis Ghaire. Switcher looked one to follow on her debut and may prove the biggest threat.[Frank Carter]
7/4 - - - 5/1 price gapper from Ireland.16 runners all 2 year olds are not quite the ideal race but this Teolane is a good horse.
425 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Green Destiny, 7/1 Lost In The Moment, 12/1 Right Step, 12/1 Shamali, 12/1 Spanish Duke, 14/1 Beachfire, 16/1 Resurge, 20/1 Anmar, 20/1 Balducci, 20/1 Bea Remembered, 20/1 Circumvent, 20/1 Waydownsouth, 28/1Riggins, 33/1 World Heritage, 50/1 Gallic Star.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is hard to oppose GREEN DESTINY (nap) who looked a Group-race performer in the making at Newmarket and has been rerouted from Wednesday's Hunt Cup for this. Lost In The Moment finished fast when second at Chester on Saturday and has claims if in the same form, while the rain will suit Spanish Duke and they head the dangers.[Adrian Cook]
15/8 - - - - 7/1 price gapper in a 16 runner handicap = 4 places
640 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sole Danser, 11/4 Moral Issue, 7/1 Spes Nostra, 10/1 Patriotic, 14/1 The Fiery Cross, 100/1Apreslepetitbois, 100/1 Toots Forest.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SOLE DANSER showed sufficient promise last year to believe he can win a maiden of this stature en route to better things. Moral Issue is the alternative.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
8 runners and 3 places - 7 runners now - 2 clear outsiders and an odds on fav.
615 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Separate Ways, 7/1 Jacks Grey, 8/1 A Hit Is A Hit, 10/1 Native Palm, 12/1 Esporao, 12/1London Bridge, 14/1 Seaneen Mac Ri, 20/1 Baileys Ruffit, 20/1 Croi Laidir, 20/1 Ma Heffernans Bar, 20/1 Sargent Foaley, 20/1Shabra Charity, 20/1 Wither Hills, 33/1 Current Example, 33/1 Jacks Law, 33/1 Montelaguna, 33/1 Nazine.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SEPARATE WAYS, a classy five-time winner on the Flat, shaped well first time over hurdles at Tipperary under Ruby Walsh and the pair have plenty going for them here.
Jacks Grey and A Hit Is A Hit are two possible dangers. [Brian Fleming]
Big price gapper here
825 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Mossey Joe, 4/1 Harold´s Cross, 5/1 The Fonze, 7/1 Skip Two, 14/1 Bally Wall, 14/1Predateur, 14/1 Selection Box, 16/1 Dream Champion, 33/1 Information, 33/1 Knock On The Head, 50/1 Essifer, 150/1 Roley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A fascinating decision and one that will delight Down Royal patrons that MOSSEY JOE (nap)comes here. He is in a different league to these rivals, only five of whom are in the handicap proper, and should win again.The Fonze, Harold's Cross and Skip Two look the dangers, if such exist. [Johnny Ward]
"different league to these rivals" for Mossey Joe.
725 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/11 Rainbow Springs, 9/4 Minaret, 28/1 Unbeatable, 33/1 Queen Of Epirus, 40/1 County Hotel, 50/1 Rachael´s Ruby.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RAINBOW SPRINGS has been expensive to follow in maidens since her standout third in the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac last autumn, but a switch back to slow ground could work in her favour and she should be able to capitalise on this golden opportunity. The one who could give the selection something to think about is well-bred Godolphin newcomer Minaret. [David Moon]
2 under 28/1 !
900 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bahia Emerald, 6/1 Obiter Dicta, 7/1 Aristeia, 10/1 Goodwood Treasure, 12/1 Celtic Sixpence, 12/1 Da Ponte, 12/1 His Grace, 16/1 Cocohatchee, 20/1 Golden Taurus, 20/1 Hoover, 25/1 Arctic Mirage, 25/1Reginald Claude, 25/1 Shostakovich.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these have plenty to prove and although BAHIA EMERALD (nap) ought to have plenty going for her after hacking up at Yarmouth last week she does have to prove herself on easier ground. Obiter Dicta is well worth considering returned to shorter and is preferred of the others.[Emily Weber]
13/8 - - - - 7/1 price gapper.Changeable ground might worsen come 9pm?
605 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Prophesy, 5/2 Cheerful Giver, 6/1 Disagree, 7/1 Vegas Rocks, 10/1 Danequest, 14/1 Le Rouge Alex, 14/1 Lord Jim, 16/1 March On Rome, 20/1 Misty Girl, 25/1 Go On Murt.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A quick opportunity for PROPHESY to atone for an instance of beaten favouritism here last Saturday. Providing than the blinkers have a positive effect on his concentration he should master Cheerful Giver andDisagree. [Alan Sweetman]
5 under 20/1 here at present ( market may change) -expect the Ballydoyle fav to improve?
410 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Odin´s Raven, 9/2 Jackday, 11/2 Dazzling Light, 13/2 Beat The Shower, 8/1 Red Kestrel, 10/1 Wicked Daze, 12/1 Los Nadis, 12/1 Record Breaker, 25/1 Strikemaster.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ODIN'S RAVEN (nap), who has been in good form under both codes this year, escapes a penalty for his success in a competitive apprentice event at York last Friday and should take plenty of beating with the return to 1m6f unlikely to prove beyond him on this sharper track. Dazzling Light, Jackday and Beat The Shower can fight out minor honours.[Steve Boow]
8 runners now and 3 places. And a price gapper.
210 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Flying Pickets, 13/8 Mad For Fun, 3/1 Valley Ace, 20/1 Sophar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very trappy, as all four runners may be able to stay 7f on breeding but it's not certain that any will set the pace that would guarantee a truly run event at the trip. Mad For Fun and Flying Pickets's best form efforts hardly set an insuperable standard, so maybe VALLEY ACE can improve past both if the first-time visor has a positive effect. [Jeremy Grayson]
should be 3 horses for 2 places here.
245 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Emperor Of Rome, 3/1 John Louis, 9/2 Sugar Apple, 8/1 Joyful Sound, 12/1 Decadence, 16/1 Chapter Five, 16/1 Le Chat D´or, 22/1 Harvey´s Hope, 33/1 Chlodan, 33/1 Miss Emily, 66/1 Chalkie, 150/1 Annalika, 150/1 Regy From Sedgy, 150/1 Regythelion.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No surprise at all to see Emperor Of Rome give it a good go from the front again, and he sets a clear standard of those to have run. Sugar Apple and JOHN LOUIS are two newcomers with much to
recommend them, though, and the latter is taken to emulate his half-sister in recording a win as a 3yo for Charlie McBride. [Jeremy Grayson]
10/11 favourite.
SHORTLIST
8pm - Shamrock Rovers v Galway Utd - 1.09 home - irish unpredictability perhaps summed up in last head to head - only a 1-0 away win for 1st against bottom. but last 2 head to heads at Shamrock have been 3-0 and 6-0 . I am, though, still smarting by the Dundalk and Drogs result of 10th June.The betting market at Ascot has been pretty good with the price gapper this week, and Teolane is another in the 230 - but this is a 13 runner 6 furlong good to soft fillies race for 2 year olds - oh man!! Can we trust 2 year olds? By definition they are still learning?
1.47 to place I suppose encapsulates all my worries.
425 ASCOT - And another Ascot price gapper in Green Destiny here in this 15 runner handicap ( was 16). yes, Betfair are still paying out for 4 places which is great news and 1.4 is fairly generous given the performance of other price gappers this week at Ascot( they have all been placed, mostly in the first 2 at Ascot - canford cliffs, so you think, fame and glory, frankel)
640 AYR - is very interesting as it is a 7 runner race now but still 3 places on Betfair. A bit of a headscratcher as this is a strong odds on favourite who has not had a run out for 320 days. That is the big concern.
There are 2 clear outsiders at 50/1 and 100/1 here reducing the competitive field to 5 runners for 3 places - so the probability that a favourite will place as not, is very good.
Obvious alternative could be Moral Issue here at 10/3 currently. I would need to do an update were this to be a one a day selection as I have found to my cost ( remember Locum!) that there will be a lot more revealed via the betting market right up to race time.
825 DOWNROYAL - the Racing Post correspondent is certainly getting in a lather about Mossey Joe appearing here." stands out a mile as the class act" is some strong words. Handicap chase and a " brilliant jumper". So why 5/4? Should be get on to place and take advantage of this standout ( apparently) horse?
725 GOODWOOD - very obvious for Rainbow Springs. a debutant is 2nd fav from Godolphin at 9/4 and it's 33/1 bar the rest!
210 REDCAR - lucky dip - should be 3 horses for 2 places.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
8pm - Shamrock Rovers v Galway Utd - 1.09 home - form points to an easy Shamrock win, but then the form pointed to an easy Drogheda win on 10th June. The vagiaries of Irish football betting!EVENING RACING
640 AYR, 725 GOODWOOD and 825 DOWNROYAL all need a look nearer race time. 725 GOODWOOD is standout with Rainbow springs currently 1.11 to place which, in an apparent 2 horse race for 2 places, is tempting.
NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com
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