19/6

It's a tricky day today. My speculative bets would be on England u17 v rwanda u17 in the U17 World Cup in Mexico. It just looks like a mismatch doesn't it ( without any form to go on!) In the 230 Hexham, Twisted offers a ready alternative to Priors Gold in a jumps race ( hurdles) where 3 are under 50/1 for 3 places. He completes and he should place. I am reminded of recent losers Fashionable Gal ( fell at last) and Mossey Joe( blunder 3rd out and lost all momentum - both of these jumps races and both horses traded below 1.11 but ended up losers)

Another speculative bet would be the USA to beat jamaica at the Concacaf Gold Cup early tomorrow morning.. I get my info from the Racing Post on this and the argument is compelling

530 HEXHAM sees an interesting bumper and Atalanta Falcon looks good for Elliott/Maguire. 7 runners, 3 places , 3 under 16/1

*****ONE A DAY 530 HEXHAM - ATALANTA FALCON TO PLACE - try Betfair SP as it is a long way to race time***** I have chosen this race because it is a flat race ( and 2 recent losses have been over jumps, and 2 unlucky losses at that down to jumping errors near the end of the race) 7 runners and 3 places makes the likelihood of a market leader placing quite high, exacerbated by the market which indicates there are 3 under 16/1 who should dominate.

Tampines Rovers, Await the Dawn, CSKA Moscow and Mexico all obliged yesterday.

1110am - Japan v Kuwait - 1.18 home - no real form analysis can be done.

3pm - Lunds BK v Husqvarna - 1.38 home

HEAD TO HEADS

17.10.2010	D3S	Husqvarna FF	1-1	Lunds BK
25.04.2010	D3S	Lunds BK	3-2	Husqvarna FF

Only 2 head to heads here see Lunds unbeaten.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 14th of 14 in the Swedish 3rd tier. 9 games played for Lunds and 8 for Husqvarna

HOME TEAM - LUNDS

RECENT HOME FORM - WWLD - only 4 matches played at home. 1-0 loss against 6th. The 2 wins were 2-0's against 8th and 10th. The draw was unlucky with an 89th minute equaliser.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDWDLWDW - 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss. Strong form, albeit only a few matches into the season,. 3 draws all score draws. 2 of them should have been Lund wins were it not for 80+ minute equalisers.

GOAL TRENDS - tough to decipher without soccerstats.Only 1 team have scored 2 or more in a match, and that 2nd goal was an 87th minute goal. 4 matches at home, 2 clean sheets. Average 1.25 scored and 0.5 conceded albeit from only 4 matches.

STREAKS - 3 overall without a loss. 2 home matches without a win.

AWAY TEAM - HUSQVARNA

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLL - 0-0 draw against 8th. loss scorelines - , 3-0, 3-1, 2-0 Consistent concession rate against 6th, 4th and 12th.Since September 2010 in ALL matches ( not just league) Husqvarna have conceded 5,2,5,3,3,2,4,0,3,3,2

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLLWLL - win against 9th in the league was at home. 2,3,3,3,0,3,2 conceded so far in the league.

GOAL TRENDS - average 2 conceded overall and away, with 0.25 scored on average away.

STREAKS - 11 away without win, 7 overall without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Swedish 3rd Division is new to me but it looks as if Husqvarna will lose by 2/3 if trends continue., It must be said we have limited matches to go with to research but the away side's trends are the strongest.

3pm - Molde v Sogndal - 1.39 home

HEAD TO HEADS

12.02.2011	CF	Molde FK	1-0	Sogndal
09.06.2010	Cup	Molde FK	1-3	Sogndal
11.02.2009	CF	Molde FK	0-0	Sogndal

No real meeting in anger of late. 2 friendlies and a cup match.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 14th in the Norwegian top flight , and we have the league on www.soccerstats.com so we can get a good idea re form trends.

HOME TEAM - MOLDE

RECENT HOME FORM - DWLWW - loss was 2-0 against 12th placed Rosenborg. Draw was 2-2 against top side. 4 of these 5 matches over 2.5 goals .Wins against 5th, 8th and 11th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDDWWLWWLWW - losses away to 7th and 9th 3-0 and 5-0 a little concerning .Take them away though and its 6 wins.

GOAL TRENDS - 80% over 2.5 goals at home ( remember in 5 matches only). Have conceded in all home matches. 9 of 11 matches played over 2.5 goals. Cleansheets kept in only 2 matches ( both away) -

STREAKS - 2 match winning streak at home. 4 without a draw at home.8 without a draw overall.

AWAY TEAM - SOGNDAL

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWL - win was against 5th placed and 1-0. 2 1-0 losses against 4th and 7th and 2-0 and 2-1 losses against 3rd and 6th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLDWWLLW - recently losses against 13th and 6th. Wins, only 3, against 5th ( away) , 9th and 10th ( home)

GOAL TRENDS - 20% over 2.5 goals away but remember only 5 matches. Only 3 matches all season have been over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 2 of last 3 matches.

STREAKS - 5 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - limited matches to work off. 6 wins in last 8 for Molde is good form. Losses were away. 9/11 matches over 2.5 goals and Molde have conceded in all home matches. 4 without a draw, 8 overall without a draw links in with Sogndal'ss 5 away matches without a draw.

Goals trends based on 5 matches and therefore not accurate. 9/11 overs for Molde and 8/11 for Sogndal UNDER 2.5 goals. Away to top 7, 4 losses and a 1-0 win. 2 losses were 1-0, this hints maybe at laying Molde ?

410pm - Ekranas v Mazeikiai - 1.16 home - Lithuanian top flight - huge amounts on Betfair to lay Ekranas ( good news for backers as there is plenty of liquidity on the back side.)

HEAD TO HEADS

10.04.2011	D1	FK Mazeikiai	1-2	FK Ekranas
18.09.2010	D1	FK Mazeikiai	0-3	FK Ekranas
12.06.2010	D1	FK Ekranas	5-0	FK Mazeikiai
03.04.2010	D1	FK Mazeikiai	0-2	FK Ekranas

Dominant in head to heads -last match 1-1 til an 83rd minute Ekranas winner.

LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 7th of 12

HOME TEAM - EKRANAS -

RECENT HOME FORM - WDDWWWW - 3 1-0 wins in the last 4 matches and now we get an idea why the layers are out in force!1-0's against 2nd, 8th and 9th. All of the 1-0's involved goals after 60 minutes and 1 was a 79th minute penalty - hardly impressive BUT it does relay that Ekranas do not concede.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDWDDWWWWW - last 5 wins saw 4 1-0's and a 7-0. 7-0 was against 11th of 12.

GOAL TRENDS -6 of last 7 matches under 2.5 goals. 5 of those matches under 1.5 goals so Ekranas doing just enough. 2.29 scored on average at home with 0.43 goals conceded on average.

STREAKS - 6 at home without defeat, 9 overall.

AWAY TEAM - MAZEIKIAI

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLLWWWD - wins against 5th, 10th and 11th. Losses against 2nd and 9th

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLLLDWWLWDDD - only 1 loss in last 8. 2 of last 3 draws have been 0-0 .

GOAL TRENDS - 1.79 scored, 1.29 conceded on average away

STREAKS - 4 away without a loss

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - That 1.16 looks very shaky if we take onboard that 5 of Ekranas's last 7 matches have been under 1.5 goals. There have been 5 1-0 wins in last 7 matches, Mazeikiai have drawn their last 3, 2 of them 0-0.

It suggests to me a throwaway lay of Ekranas at the odds of 1.17, a back of 0-0 ( albeit in a very illiquid betting market - do not take the odds of 14 as they arewrong). A wholly illiquid betting market where there are no market forces and thus the odds on offer are out of kilter.

745pm - UKRAINE u21 v SPAIN u21 - 1.41 away

Bate Borisov and Suduva are other matches of interest today but what is the point labouring over research when the betting markets are so poor for those matches? I am hoping this under 21 match will be more popular as Spain are involved.

No head to heads .6 of Ukraine's last 7 matches have been draws - they lost against Holland. 3 of Spain's last 4 matches were draws. Both sides drew with England.

Spain have only lost 1 match in their last 12 ukraine have only won 2 in their last 11 matches, against Czech and Dutch back in October 2010.

Tough to quantify this match, but I would suggest this looks like defence v attack.

9pm - Rwanda u17 v England u17 - 1.36 away - FIFA u17 World Cup and instinct surely tells us that with the structures and funding in place, England must have a great chance.

3 losses in last 4 for Rwanda against France, Burkino Faso and Senegal. Tough to weigh up the form as England will not have met the same sides.

England have lost 3 of their last 5 against Holland, Denmark and Poland.

Group C match and played I think in Mexico.

220 HEREFORD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Round Tom, 9/4 Teenage Kicks, 9/2 Mohi Rahrere, 10/1 Notabotheronme, 12/1 Minella Bliss, 100/1 Colwyn Bay, 100/1 Muzey´s Princess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This could develop into a match and in receipt of weight ROUND TOM (nap) looks a better option than Teenage Kicks.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

8 runners - 3 places - 5 under 100/1 makes this a great place only race. Round Tom the favourite here in this conditional jockey's handicap hurdle./

230 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Priors Gold, 9/4 Twisted, 11/2 Tekthelot, 11/2 Turbolinas, 33/1 Pagan Flight, 40/1Dancing Gizmo, 40/1 War Kitty, 66/1 Fred Grass, 100/1 Kalanisi Kid.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive PRIORS GOLD may well be good enough to defy a double penalty in another weak race but Twisted, who receives plenty of weight from the selection, could prove a serious threat if building on his Sedgefield effort.[Steve Boow]

Turbolinas is a non runner. 3 under 33/1 here makes this a great place only race. As we know ( Mossey Joe, Fashionable Gal) these jumps races can change in a heart beat with a tardy jump.

Twisted looks the value here.

330 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Bescot Springs, 6/1 Worth A King´s, 10/1 Frosty Spring, 10/1 Papa Golf, 10/1 Saddlers Mot, 10/1 Wor Rom, 14/1 Still Calm, 33/1 Hot Gazpacho, 50/1 Morecambe Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from BESCOT SPRINGS, who has shown more than enough in two outings over fences to suggest he'll be hard to beat in this very ordinary event. Worth A King's may be capable of better in this sphere and looks the main danger. [Richard Young]

8/13 - - - -5/1 - price gapper but a novices chase and we know all about chases.

530 HEXHAM

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Atlanta Falcon, 6/4 Golden View, 7/2 Powerful Ambition, 14/1 Kaduna, 20/1 Japp, 40/1Astitchintime, 50/1 Celtic Mystique.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting clash of recent winners and it's very difficult to choose between the two. Slight preference is for ATLANTA FALCON with the obvious concern for Golden View being whether this race will come too soon after his C&D victory eight days ago, for all he probably didn't take much out of himself. Powerful Ambition may still do better.[Steve Boow]

3 under 16/1 here and no obstacles ( national hunt flat race)

SHORTLIST

3pm - Lunds BK v Husqvarna - 1.38 home - Swedish 3rd division and it seems Husqvarna concede 2/3 regularly.

745pm - UKRAINE u21 v SPAIN u21 - 1.41 away - I would like to lay Ukraine here somehow but the price is too high. Perhaps back 0-0 and Spain at 1.41? Ukraine likely to be highly defensive.

3pm - Molde v Sogndal - 1.39 home - it might be worth backing Molde here if Sogndal have not scored in 2 of their last 3?

9pm - Rwanda u17 v England u17 - 1.36 away - Rwandans likely to be fit but naive and this looks like a decent bet here, based on logic and not really any form.

230 HEXHAM - 3 under 33/1 here for 3 places. Priors Gold 1.06 to place, but Twisted, at 11/4 , is 1.15 to place. A clear round will suffice.

530 HEXHAM - Atlanta Falcon and Golden View the 2 to focus on - 7 runners and 3 places.

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