Saturday 18 June 2011

18/6

I wish yesterday I had held on til today. Mexico look rock solid today and we have the return of the rock solid price gappers at Ascot.

I will opt for Mexico today.

*****ONE A DAY - Mexico v Guatemala - back Mexico in the match odds at 1.14******

This is one of those days where I could easily put up Tampines Rovers against Woodlands Wellington, and Await the Dawn at Ascot today. I would also get involved with CSKA but only from a trading perspective.




I should have stayed with Rainbow springs despite the return. So much for reliance on the Racing Post journos and the " brilliant jumping " of Mossey joe - sprawled badly on landing 3 out and lost all momentum. A pity as he was clear and was pinging the fences before that. That's chasing!
Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 and Rainbow springs would have been an ideal bet yesterday, but I chased price rather than certainty.

HEAD TO HEADS

04.04.2011D1Woodlands Wellington1-3Tampines Rovers
21.03.2011D1Woodlands Wellington0-1 ABDTampines Rovers
16.09.2010D1Woodlands Wellington2-4Tampines Rovers
21.06.2010D1Tampines Rovers5-0Woodlands Wellington
30.05.2010CupTampines Rovers2-1 AETWoodlands Wellington
31.03.2010D1Woodlands Wellington0-4Tampines Rovers

Clean sweep in head to heads.


LEAGUE POSITION - top v bottom ( league of 12 sides) - game in hand for Tampines and with 2nd only 1 point behind, a win would be nice to remain top. Only 5 points all season for Woodlands - 12 losses, 1 win, 2 draws. +21 goals v -27 goals difference.

HOME TEAM - TAMPINES


5,4,1,1,5,1,3 goals scored at home. Either only one or a bucket load! Slight lack of consistency - e.g. 2nd bottom, only won 1-0 with an 80th minute goal. But against 4th, won 3-1 with ease and opponents scored in the 93rd minute so should really have been 3-0

RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWWDW - draws against 2nd and 7th. Both draws saw Tampines score first and concede in the 81st and 88th minutes. Frustrating.

RECENT FORM OVERALL WWWDWLW - loss 2-0 away to 8th but was 1-0 until Tampines got a man sent off and opponents get a penalty immediately afterwards.

GOAL TRENDS - average 2.86 at home and 0.86 conceded at home. Tough to formulate 2.5 goals as not on soccerstats.

STREAKS -11 at home undefeated.

AWAY TEAM - WOODLANDS WELLINGTON

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDLLLLW - win came away to 10th place Young Lions -1-1 at halftime - Young Lions get a man sent off. Woodlands even missed a penalty but got a late winner .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLLLLWLL -

GOAL TRENDS - Woodlands have not scored in 8 of the last 9 away matches. Against top 5, Woodlands recent results? - 5-1 loss, 5-0 loss, 3-1 loss, 2-0 loss, 5-0 loss.

STREAKS - 6 away without a draw. Recent win against Young Lions has halted a rather poor away run. 13 of last 16 matches away - Woodlands have failed to score.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - it seems that any positive result Woodlands get will come by accident rather than design ( sending off , penalty that kind of thing). Expect 3,4,5 goals from league leaders?

130pm - Dinamo Moscow v Tomsk - 1.5 home

HEAD TO HEADS

29.08.2010D1Tom Tomsk1-0Dynamo Moscow
10.04.2010D1Dynamo Moscow0-0Tom Tomsk
17.10.2009D1Dynamo Moscow0-1Tom Tomsk
30.05.2009D1Tom Tomsk2-3Dynamo Moscow

Last 3 matches very tight indeed.

LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 10th after 13 matches.

HOME TEAM DINAMO MOSCOW

RECENT HOME FORM - WWDDWD - any coincidence that the draws came against 1st, 2nd and 4th? Dinamo extremely lucky to come out with 2 draws from these matches. 1 match saw a 93rd minute equaliser and the other saw an 88th minute penalty. The last draw, 1-1 , again saw a 96th minute Dinamo equaliser - the somewhat taints the form doesn't it. They are some lucky barstewards and I will be asking them to buy my lottery tickets.

2 of the remaining wins were 1-0s, 84th and 48th minute goals.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWDDWDDWWDL - we know about the home draws. 2 away draws against 11th and 14th were 0-0. Losses came against 5th and 12th, and both 3-0 losses.

GOAL TRENDS - do you get the impression that, largely, Dinamo have trouble infront of goal? Or if they score 2 in a match, the 2nd is typically in the last 10 minutes of the match.

STREAKS - 4 home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - TOMSK

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWWDL - losses against 4th, 14th and 12th - wins against 11th and 16th (bottom)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDWDWDDWLDD - 5 of the 6 draws have come at home.Last 5 draws all score draws.

GOAL TRENDS - 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. 1.17 scored and 2 conceded on average away from home.

STREAKS - 3 overall without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - you get the feeling this match may not be a goalfest. Perhaps a back of 0-0 to trade initially , but a poor 13.5. 1.5 looks layable initially for Dinamo given the amount of late goals and tight matches ( note too the head to heads) 3 losses in 13 matches for Tomsk and a massive 6 draws .

345pm - Spartak Nalchik v CSKA Moscow - 1.44 away

HEAD TO HEADS

14.11.2010D1Spartak Nalchik1-1CSKA Moscow
25.07.2010D1CSKA Moscow1-2Spartak Nalchik
17.10.2009D1Spartak Nalchik1-1CSKA Moscow
22.07.2009D1CSKA Moscow0-0Spartak Nalchik

Tight matches with Spartak actually unbeaten in head to heads. Looking at the following league positions, perhaps there has been a change of fortune.

LEAGUE POSITION - 16th (bottom) v 1st CSKA are top and they have only played 12 ( others on 13) -they are 4 points clear.

HOME TEAM - SPARTAK NALCHIK

RECENT HOME FORM - WDLLDD - losses against 7th and 10th saw Nilchak 2-0 and 3-0 down before final scores of 2-1 and 3-2. So traders, trade out if CSKA are well ahead, or perhaps being cheeky, lay CSKA in the expectation of a Nilchak fight back late on? and the draws? 2 2-2 draws against 2nd and 14th and a 1-1 against 12th, Draw against Zenit care of an 88th minute equaliser even a man down. These draws largely characterised by Nilchak losing initially.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDDLLLDDDDLL - no win at all in last 12. The win was a 1-0 home win against 2nd from bottom with an 89th minute penalty! Draws against 2nd, 5th, 13th, 12th, 6th, 14th. As we saw, the draws against top sides saw Nilchak rather lucky to draw.

GOAL TRENDS - 1.57 scored, 1.6 conceded at home on average hints at a natural score draw!

STREAKS - 12 without a win, 5 at home without a win.

AWAY TEAM - CSKA MOSCOW

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDWW - 4 of the 5 matches over 2.5 goals. The other was a 1-1 with 2nd goal in 60th minute so a successful over 2.5 goals. CSKA scored 3,1,2,3,4 in those away matches. Draws against 10th and 7th saw CSKA winning. One was particularly gauling as the opponents scored an equaliser in the 93rd minute.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWWDLDWWDWW - loss was against Moscow rivals ( 1-0 v 8th, 78th minute goal). Last 3 draws saw CSKA leading then conceding a 2nd half goal.

GOAL TRENDS -2.6 scored on average away and 1 conceded per match ( albeit only 5 matches)

STREAKS - 7 away without a loss ( overall - 5 in the league)

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I think that CSKA will score first herre, but whether they will hold out is another matter, so they look good for a back to lay trade. Playing bottom today, who have not won in their last 12, and their draws have largely come from them conceding first.

745pm - Sligo Rovers v UCD - 1.25 home - you can research this if you want - it is at soccerstats, but I am not getting involved in Irish football for a short while.


1am - Mexico v Guatemala - 1.14 home - we can only really go by COncacaf Gold Cup scorelines.
Mexico have won 5-0, 5-0, 4-1 against El Salvador, Cuba, Costa Rica.
Guatemala have drawn 0-0 with Honduras, lost 2-0 to jamaica, and beat Grenada 4-0.
No collateral form and a hope the odds are right, as they suggest another 3,4,5 goals from the mexicans.




305 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Await The Dawn, 8/1 Drunken Sailor, 10/1 Calvados Blues, 10/1 Passion For Gold, 10/1Poet, 12/1 Campanologist, 14/1 Laaheb, 16/1 Harris Tweed, 20/1 Kings Gambit.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: AWAIT THE DAWN has looked up to winning at the top level when easily taking Group 3s on his last two starts and should be very hard to beat in this Group 2. He gave the very strong impression at Chester last time that a step up to 1m4f will be well within range. Calvados Blues can chase him home.[Mel Cullinan]

Soft ground a great concern at Ascot today, but this is a huge price gapper. 8/11 - - - -10/1 representing Ryan Moore and Aiden O'Brien.

220 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Margot Did, 6/1 Katla, 6/1 Ladies Are Forever, 10/1 Celerina, 10/1 Googlette, 12/1 Favourite Girl, 14/1 Perfect Blossom, 20/1 Bold Bidder.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MARGOT DID has tested the patience of her supporters but she rewarded those who had stuck with her last week and she looks to have strong claims of following up in this field. Katla, Ladies Are Forever andGooglette look the main dangers this time.[Paul Smith]

Now down to 8 runners and 4/5 - - - -5/1 price gapper this Margot Did. A better chance of placing obviously than in an 11 horse race.

405 AYR

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Apostle, 2/1 Holy Roman Warrior, 11/2 Tight Lipped, 7/1 Letsgoroundagain, 14/1 Thirkleby, 16/1 Ladykin, 25/1 Tyre Giant Dot Com, 50/1 Lollypop Lady.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is a drop in class for Apostle but he could be vulnerable to the less-exposed HOLY ROMAN WARRIOR whose stable has won this race for the last two years.[Frank Carter]

A good race to look at. 8 runners now , 4 under 16/1 only, and Apostle 5/4 and clear fav as I write.

715 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Maqaraat, 5/1 Palagonia, 12/1 Magic Rhythm, 16/1 Al Raqi, 16/1 Dollar Deal, 16/1 Secret Era, 25/1 Bollin Mandy, 66/1 Prices Lane, 100/1 Fiftynotout, 100/1 Kindlelight Soleil, 100/1 Knowe Head, 100/1 Royal Deal, 150/1 Ossie Ardiles.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The likes of Palagonia and Secret Era may have designs on depriving him of the early lead, and a drop below 1m2f for the first time this season asks a question, too. Nevertheless, it will still rate a big disappointment if Dee Stakes second MAQARAAT can't put this lot to the sword en route to a return to better company.[Jeremy Grayson]

Huge price gapper. 3 2nd places on the trot augurs well for another place today.

700 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Firebeam, 6/4 Escape To Glory, 8/1 Bambika, 14/1 Aaranyow, 14/1 Abacist, 33/1 Don´t Call Me Tiny, 33/1 Pressbuttonb, 100/1 Beggers Belief, 100/1 Bird Dog, 100/1 Dark Pegasus, 100/1 Pastoral Jet.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ESCAPE TO GLORY and Firebeam are dropping back in trip and the selection's better draw could prove decisive.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

4 under 20/1 and 2 to dominate?

215 REDCAR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Red Duke, 3/1 Keep Swinging, 9/2 Comical, 8/1 Rock Supreme, 12/1 Fine Kingdom, 16/1Dubai Destiny, 25/1 Lady Advocate, 25/1 Priestley´s Reward.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent maiden for the course. RED DUKE shaped like a winner in waiting on debut and the extra furlong should be very much in his favour. Keep Swinging takes the eye among the newcomers and Comical is likely to step up considerably from his first run.[Frank Carter]

8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 14/1 and an evens favourite - all looks fine and dandy BUT this is a maiden with 5 debutants, and a strong fav who has only had the single run. Faith in the betting market therefore being accurate.


SHORTLIST

1230pm - Tampines Rovers v Woodlands Wellington - 1.12 home - expectation for 3,4 goals and a comfortable lunchtime for Tampines Rovers

345pm - Spartak Nalchik v CSKA Moscow - 1.44 away - bottom v top and an expectation that CSKA will score first. I would prefer to trade though if 1-0, 2-0 coming into the late 2nd half. For instance, CSKA led away in head to heads on both occasions before drawing 1-1

1am - Mexico v Guatemala - 1.14 home - this looks a very strong bet indeed as Mexico have scored 14 and conceded only 1. No collateral form though so faith in a reproduction of their recent form.

305 ASCOT - won on soft and an Irish horse, Await the Dawn is an outstanding price gapper today 1.19 to place and if the market is accurate, Await the Dawn should win, or worse case place.

220 AYR - 5 under 20/1 and Margot Did could follow up? Hayley Turnips on board. 1.17 to place.

715 HAYDOCK - Maqaarat should place with ease but the market is illiquid. Perhaps the value lies in the win only market or in Palagonia to place. Because the market has yet to come to life, it is better to wait until nearer 715pm

700 LINGFIELD - escape to glory the best choice of the 2 main protagonists? He has the better draw.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1230pm - Tampines Rovers v Woodlands Wellington - 1.12 home - now 1.13 with £4500 available, this should be very straightforward for Tampines.

345pm - Spartak Nalchik v CSKA Moscow - 1.44 away - bottom v top and I would back CSKA but with the idea of trading if they are leading by a single goal going into the last 3/4 of the match, given Spartak Nalchik could stage a late comeback as they have don on many occasions. Perhaps back CSKA, with a 1-1 cover bet as I cannot see Spartak scoring 2?

1am - Mexico v Guatemala - 1.14 home - looks a very solid proposition today.

305 ASCOT - Await the Dawn looks standout today - the reason I did not get involved in Ascot yesterday was the soft ground but this Irish horse has soft ground winning form - 1.19 to place.







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