14 June

Obvious bets today? Frankel to place only at 1.09 and USA to beat Guadeloupe at 1.1 - together they make a 1.19 bet which is enticing.

More speculative? Canford Cliffs/Goldikova to place in the 230 ASCOT and I will opt for Canford Cliffs to place. It is a risk as this is top drawer, and there is a slight element of softness to the ground, but I hope the market domination of these 2 reflects in the business end of the race and they both place.

*****230 ASCOT - CANFORD CLIFFS TO PLACE ONLY - around 1.35 to place*****

Well done Murray and Guatemala. Murray of course gives people value for money by ensuring 3 sets, and those who can follow the match, why not back favourites who lose the first set in 3 set matches. Why? Because they must win the 2nd set to stay in the match.

1230pm - Home United v Woodlands Wellington - 1.15 home. Woodlands are the whipping boys in the Singapore Premier League. Singapore Cup and not a league match. How much will this change Woodlands' mentality? This is 2nd v bottom in the league and as you know I prefer cup matches featuring teams who are in different leagues.

6 wins in their last 7 puts Home United in a good place in the league. Losses have come against 1st, 3rd and 4th - obvious then that Home United find the top 4 a struggle but basically win against the rest.

February 2011 saw the last head to head - a home win 2-0 for Home United - not really in keeping with a 1.16 quote ( which suggests 3 or 4 goals to nil)

Only 1 loss in the last 12 at home was against 5th placed Etoile.

7 wins in last 8, 4 wins on the trot at home.3,2,2,2,5,4,3 scored at home in those wins. Consistent and matches head to heads where Home United have scored 3,2,2,2,2 in their last 5 matches.

Woodlands have lost 9 of their last 11 matches. Win was against 10th ( of 12).Have conceded 4,5,1,5 in their last 4 losses.

Lost 7 of last 9 away matches. Last match a win -85th minute winner against 10 man Young Lions and Woodlands also missed a penalty.

These 2 play each other in the league at the weekend so I guess it is important to put down a marker in this match?

The form from the league points to a tightish match and a 2 goals win for Home United with the possibility of Woodlands scoring at least 1. But this is the Cup so there may be team changes especially with Home United 2nd in the league and in with a serious chance of winning the league.

345pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Rostov - 1.25 home

HEAD TO HEADS

14.11.2010	D1	Zenit St Petersburg	5-0	FK Rostov
24.07.2010	D1	FK Rostov	1-3	Zenit St Petersburg
13.09.2009	D1	Zenit St Petersburg	2-0	FK Rostov
03.05.2009	D1	FK Rostov	2-1	Zenit St Petersburg

Well, Zenit have scored 8 goals in their last 2 matches with Rostov.

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 12th - a win will take Zenit top provisionally.

HOME TEAM - ZENIT

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWDDW - limited home league matches. Zenit have been busy in the UEFA Cup. The loss was a match awarded 3-0 to CSKA because Zenit fielded an illegible player. Draws against 6th and 7th. 2,3,1,2,3

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLWWDDDLWD - too many draws of late and poor overall form really.One loss we know , the other against 10th in the league. Last draw should have been a win. A 96th minute equaliser for opponents!

GOAL TRENDS - 3 of the 4 legitimate home matches were over 2.5 goals. Zenit score an average 1.83 and concede 1 at home.

STREAKS - 3 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - ROSTOV

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLDLLLD - draws against bottom and 6th - Rostov were 2-0 up in their last match against bottom, and ended drawing. Against 2nd in league recently, Rostov only lost 1-0 and they did get a man sent off afterwards. Rostov lost 2-1 against top, CSKA, they were 2-0 down.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLWLDLWDL - mixed bag from rostov - inconsistency and inconsistency is bad for the bettor.Wins against 13th and 14th in the league.

GOAL TRENDS -rostov score an average 0.83 and concede an average 1.83 away.

STREAKS - 3 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Only 12 matches so far in this league and is it a case of rostov having a bad start, or are they automatically opposable. Remember that with only 12 matches to work with , there are , realistically, no strong trends and stats. Zenit are clear in recent head to heads and their odds reflect another scoreline like their last. The loss at home was not a loss! 3 of 4 home matches were over 2.5 goals. An angle in? Rostov lost 1-0 to 2nd in league and 2-1 to top in league. What will it be today? Faith in Zenit simply winning?

as we saw with the Swedes yesterday, this is the early part of the season and shocks cannot be ruled out.

2am - Guadeloupe v USA - 1.1 away - we only really have Gold Cup to go on.

Guadeloupe lost 1-0 to Canada. Man sent off after 4 minutes and also Canada's goal was a penalty.

They lost 3-2 against Panama. 3 down and a man down so a fine recovery.

Note that guadeloupe have had a man sent off twice.

USA beat Canada 2-0 and lost 2-1 to Panama. They are in poor form. But surely need will see them through?

230 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Canford Cliffs, 11/8 Goldikova, 13/2 Cape Blanco, 16/1 Cityscape, 20/1 Rio De La Plata, 40/1 Ransom Note, 100/1 Flash Dance.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Arguably the most mouth-watering race of the whole meeting. Confidence in CANFORD CLIFFSbeing able to mow down Goldikova would be diminished if the ground softens any more, not that she's a huge fan of give in the ground, but for sure he's a better horse than the same stable's Paco Boy who ran the French phenomenon close in this last year. If the going became really testing, Cityscape's prospects would increase considerably.[Paul Johnson]

The betting market mirrors the betting forecast. Will both of the main protagonists place?

345 ASCOT

BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Frankel, 8/1 Excelebration, 12/1 Dream Ahead, 12/1 Wootton Bassett, 14/1 Dubawi Gold, 16/1 Grand Prix Boss, 20/1 Zoffany, 66/1 Neebras, 150/1 Rerouted.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FRANKEL, who left the world open mouthed with the staggering manner of his 2,000 Guineas success, must surely win if turning up in the same form. The form of that victory and his Greenham defeat of Excelebrationlooks solid and it remains to be seen if Dream Ahead, his main rival on the figures, lasts this trip, with his trainer having mentioned big summer sprints as possible targets further down the line.[Paul Johnson]

A major surprise if Frankel does not place. Excelebration looks a good value each way alternative.

845 NEWTON ABBOTT

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Jive Master, 4/1 Indie Go, 5/1 Lundy Bay, 10/1 Magic In Motion, 10/1 Sovereigns Legacy, 14/1 Almighty Bruce, 20/1 Sir Frog, 25/1 Marsh Lane, 33/1 Arachnid, 33/1 Darius Khan, 33/1 Miss Morwood.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A very ordinary bumper in which Tim Vaughan's Irish point winner JIVE MASTER may well be good enough to score on his rules debut. [Chris Wilson]

3 under 14/1 currently but note the race time!

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Home United v Woodlands Wellington - 1.15 home - odds like this equals many goals but recent results have seen Home beating Woodlands by around 2 goals. A cup match too and they both meet at the weekend in the league.

345pm - Zenit St Petersburg v Rostov - 1.25 home - Zenit are unbeaten at home. They have scored 8 to no reply in last 2 head to heads. But Rostov only beaten narrowly by top and 2nd (1-0 and 2-1) away. Rostov are opposable based on away form, not necessarily overall form. Early season ( only 12 matches in)

2am - Guadeloupe v USA - 1.1 away - a must win for the USA.

230 ASCOT - Goldikova v Canford Cliffs? The place odds are good at 1.37 and 1.41 currently and signal a top flight race. Ground may play a part, and if I look at the Statman trends for this race, Canford Cliffs ticks most boxes. Tough choice to make and an assumption both horses will place .

345 ASCOT - a huge price gapper - 1.37 to win and 1.09 to place. No chinks in the armour that are apparent. Excelebration to place at 2.04 is the speculative alternative. Frankel surely will trounce this lot if all is in order.