Saturday 25 June 2011

25/6

3 strong shortlisters today
Race 1) 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 16/1 suggests Regal parade has one to beat to place
Race 2) - 2 under 20/1 here - 7 runners - 3 places - Midday must place at 1.06 but Misty for Me at 1.27 the value? Only has to beat 4 horses to place, 2 are priced 50/1 and 100/1 which should reduce competitive field to 5 horses for 3 places ( again 2 are priced 33/1 and 28/1) Misty for Me has largely been running over 7 and 8 furlongs, and was 5th over 1 mile 4. Back now to 1 mile 2 furlongs)

*****335 CURRAGH - BACK MISTY FOR ME TO PLACE ONLY AT AROUND 1.27*****
I hope I do not rue missing the obvious 1.06 Midday in favour of the slightly better price. Misty for Me should be able to finish in the first 3 surely if the betting market is accurate ( 2 under 20/1). Probability is on his side too - 7 runners now and 3 places still on Betfair. 2 are 50/1 and 100/1 reducing field to 5 runners for 3 places. Slight concern with trip.


Laura Robson put up a stout display. Luckily Sharapova scraped that first set and eased on through.

HEAD TO HEADS

28.03.2011D1Gombak United0-1Singapore Armed Forces
05.09.2010D1Gombak United0-2Singapore Armed Forces
04.06.2010D1Singapore Armed Forces0-1Gombak United
18.03.2010D1Gombak United1-0Singapore Armed Forces
30.09.2009D1Gombak United2-1Singapore Armed Forces
07.07.2009D1Singapore Armed Forces4-1Gombak United

Most recent matches have been tight affairs and 50/50, most lately in SAF's favour.

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 7th, SAF have played one fewer matches and a win will put them 2nd.

HOME TEAM S.A.F.

RECENT HOME FORM - WWLWDWWW - loss against top side and draw against 5th

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWDLDWWWWW - draws against 5th and 11th ( against 11th a big shock as S.A.F. were priced at 1.09 - Loss 6-3 against 4th placed.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw, 3 clean sheets.Average 2 scored and 0.57 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 5 match winning streak, 5 without a loss at home.

AWAY TEAM -

RECENT AWAY FORM - GOMBACK -LWDWWDLL - inconsistent of late away - losses against 2nd, 5th and 8th. Wins away against 9th, 10th, and 12th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDWWWDLLLLW - wins against 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th hints that they are only able to beat the bottom sides.REcent losses against 2nd, 5th, 8th and 10th.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 3 losses, 2 draws.0.75 scored and 1 conceded on average away.

STREAKS - 6 overall without a draw, 3 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - despite close head to heads, Gomback only seem able to exclusively beat the bottom 4. This may hint at a 1-0, worse case 1-1 for S.A.F?

HEAD TO HEADS

04.05.2011D1Olimps/RFS0-0FK Jurmala-VV
27.10.2010D1FK Jurmala-VV0-3Olimps/RFS
26.09.2010CupOlimps/RFS0-0/p.6-7FK Jurmala-VV
21.08.2010D1FK Jurmala-VV2-2Olimps/RFS
08.05.2010D1Olimps/RFS0-2FK Jurmala-VV
30.09.2009D1Olimps/RFS2-0FK Jurmala-VV


Not the kind of overwhelming head to heads that suggest a 1.34 home side. There is no money in this market at all


LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 9th in a league of 9. Best left alone I think.


11pm - Colombia v Senegal - 1.48 home - international friendly - Columbia v Senegal u23? Is this another friendly prior to the copa America , as we have seen with argentina and Costa Rica recently. The match will be played in Medellin in Colombia and, as hinted at, the Senegal team is more of an under 23/Olympic team that the full National Team.


WIMBLEDON
1pm

Wozniacki v Gajdosova - 1.21 Woz - 1st v 28th and 2-0 straight sets wins in head to heads on hard court in 2007, 2008
115pm
Lisicki v Doi - 1.14 Lisicki - 62nd v 133rd
215pm
Nalbandian v Federer - 1.06 Federer - 23rd v 3rd - 8v 10 in head to heads.Last met 2008, and no grass head to heads.
315pm

Ferrer v K Beck - 1.14 Ferrer -6th v 125th -a nice gulf in class .2 wins on hard for Ferrer in straight sets, latterly in 2010 where last set
was a 7-5.

455 CHESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Georgebernardshaw, 2/1 Granny Mcphee, 5/2 Lang Shining, 10/1 Bright Applause, 14/1Dream Of Fortune, 66/1 Grethel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lang Shining is never far away at this level but GEORGEBERNARDSHAW and Granny McPhee are decent handicappers having their sights lowered and conditions swing the pendulum in favour of the top one.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Potential for soft ground here. George is an ex Ballydoyle hot pot who looks to be going downhill. 3 under 14/1 here and 2 places

230 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Princess Sinead, 7/2 Rigoletta, 8/1 Jemima´s Pearl, 8/1 Soon, 10/1 Money Spider, 10/1Redoutable, 12/1 Chieftess, 12/1 Oh Happy Days.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRINCESS SINEAD could have found a weaker maiden but her Naas form suggests she will be hard to beat. Rigoletta is a big danger, whereas there are two choicely-bred newcomers too in Soon and Redoubtable.

8 runners and 3 places and a favourite with 2 2nds in this soft ground maiden.

335 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Midday, 11/4 Misty For Me, 16/1 Chrysanthemum, 20/1 Aoife Alainn, 20/1 Claiomh Solais, 33/1 Empowering, 50/1 Obama Rule.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A rematch of the 2010 Yorkshire Oaks, with race-fitness now a possible factor in enablingMIDDAY to uphold form with dual Oaks heroineSnow Fairy. Another course Classic winner Misty For Me looks the clear pick of the others. [Alan Sweetman]

2 under 16/1 here makes Misty for me the value call. - 7 runners and 3 places

410 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Times Up, 4/1 Red Cadeaux, 5/1 Nebula Storm, 11/2 Address Unknown, 11/2 Admiral Of The Red, 12/1 Admiral Barry, 12/1 Zerashan, 33/1 Penthesilea Eile.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TIMES UP (nap) looked full of himself at York, continues to improve and will be hard to beat on that form. It is difficult to see anything progressing past him - indeed five-year-olds have a good record - with the promisingAdmiral Of The Red taking a big leap in class after an all-the-way maiden victory. [Johnny Ward]

8 runners and 3 places here and a strongly felt favourite

755 LINGFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Deck Walk, 9/2 Dare To Bare, 5/1 Major Domo, 14/1 Ibiza Sunset, 18/1 Reggie Perrin, 20/1Oculist, 25/1 Chatterer, 25/1 Steely.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DECK WALK sets the standard on her promising third in a decent Nottingham maiden on debut and is open to plenty of improvement stepped up in trip. The main form dangers are Dare To Bare and Major Domo who both have BHA marks in the low 70s. [David Moon]

Another 8 runner, 3 place race with a fav who has only had one run. 3 under 10/1 and 4 under 20/1

200 NEWCASTLE

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Regal Parade, 7/2 Genki, 4/1 Waffle, 15/2 Doncaster Rover, 11/1 Rain Delayed, 16/1 Eton Rifles, 16/1 Winker Watson, 33/1 Secret Witness.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: REGAL PARADE (nap) has leading prospects on last month's Duke Of York Stakes second but there must be a strong chance that this dual Group 1 winner can step up on that form on this more suitable surface. In that case he should be hard to beat, with reliable Genki and Wokingham second Waffle taken to fill the placings. [Mel Cullinan]

11/10 - - - 9/2 and another top class race

225 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Right To Dream, 5/2 Macdonald Mor, 9/2 Classy Strike, 11/1 Kathryn Perry, 14/1 Atlantis Crossing, 16/1 Breaking The Bank, 20/1 Lady Jane Grace, 20/1 Pond Life, 20/1 Scouting For Girls, 25/1 Distant Voyage, 66/1Calusa Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RIGHT TO DREAM (nap), who had the misfortune to stumble across the subsequent Coventry Stakes second when favourite to fulfil his debut promise, is taken to recover the losses and reverse earlier form withMacdonald Mor.[Paul Johnson]

3 under 14/1 here albeit in another 2 year old maiden where 5 horses are newcomers.

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Singapore Armed Forces v Gombak Utd - 1.41 - S.A.F have won last 2 head to heads away at Gomback 2-0 and 1-0 but lost the last home head to head 1-0. Gomback, from my research, have only beaten 9th, 10th, 11th and 12th in a league of 12. The inference therefore is that S.A.F should not lose at home today. They are on a 5 match unbeaten home run, 3 match winning home run, and have won their last 5 overall. They are in good nick. They average 2 scored at home this season. Wins away for Gomback against 9th, 10th and 12th should not concern S.A.F.


1pm - Wozniacki v Gajdosova - 1.21 Woz - 1st v 28th and 2-0 straight sets wins - she was in really great form last round and this looks a
big price - I suppose because the difference in rankings is shorter


315pm Ferrer v K Beck - 1.14 Ferrer -6th v 125th -a nice gulf in class - over 5 sets ferrer should win, barring injury.

230 CURRAGH - Princess Sinead has superb form , beaten by Maybe and Teolane, BUT on good to firm ground , today is soft. Illiquid

betting market

335 CURRAGH - 7 runners, 3 places, 2 only under 16/1 and obviously Midday and Misty for me are the 2 to focus on. 1.06 to place for Midday

and Misty for Me is around 1.29 to place ( market needs fleshing out)

410 CURRAGH - targeted for Times up, 4 only under 10/1 here but a high class race - 8 runners and 3 places. 1.33 to place relays the

competitive nature.

200 NEWCASTLE - 8 runners, 3 places - 4 under 16/1 makes this an ideal race for the price gapper fav to place? 1.19 to place but a very

poor betting market as I write.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

315pm Ferrer v K Beck - 1.14 Ferrer -6th v 125th - big gulf in class should hopefully see Ferrer through in 5 ( if it needs 5 sets)


335 CURRAGH - 2 superb horses in Maybe and Misty for Me. 7 horses-3places - 2 under 16/1 makes this obvious. Maybe is obvious though

at 1.06 but Misty for Me at 1.29 or thereabouts looks more value

200 NEWCASTLE - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 16/1 makes this another perfect place only race. 1.22 to place





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