Tuesday 21 June 2011

21/6

Again today it look's a case of trying to pick and mix - Sillimae look too good to turn down today against an Ajax team in the estonian league who are just poor. 1.08 is giving nothing away though. The market is very illiquid so I would consider bookmakers here. Or go to Betfair multiples and chance a double on trans narva and Sillimae. Potential rain delays too.

2 Selections Chosen
1Sillamae Kalev v Ajax Lasnamae (Backing Sillamae Kalev @ 1.06)
2Kuressaare v Narva Trans (Backing Narva Trans @ 1.17)

Doubles
SelectionsOdds*StakePotential win
1 and 21.24£100.00£24.00
I want to back Sillimae somehow today.

I have decided to have faith in the World Number 1 today, Wozniaki to win in 2 sets. I really wanted the one a day as Sillimae and then a couple of tennis bets to pump up the odds, but potential congestion in timings means that those seeking to recycle 1 stake may not be able to do so if a tennis match is not over by the time Sillimae kick off at 445pm

*****ONE A DAY - WIMBLEDON'S WOMEN'S TENNIS - 3pm - Wozniacki v Parra Santonja - 1.03 - back Wozniaki in the SET BETTING to win 2-0 at 1.22. ******If the market is not liquid
on betfair then please use a bookmaker who will have sets betting at fixed odds. 1st in the world v 156th in the world and I would
expect a simple afternoon if Wozniaki is injury free.




The joys of place only betting. Trumpington Street 3rd so no harm done. That 5th 2 races ago did signal a ? and the horse clearly is an inconsistent " unreadable" sort.
Argentina, as I predicted, matched Chile and won 4-0. At 1.09, this was the bet of the century really, with goals from Messi and Tevez. I mean these guys were playing Albania! An easy 9% for a big investor! Total yesterday 1.1 + 1.09 = 1.19.
Nadal won in straight sets which was pleasing. As predicted, Murray dropped the first set ( probably deliberately to keep his patented " keep them chewing their nails" style of tennis at Wimbledon).

445pm - Kuressaare v Narva Trans - 1.22 away

HEAD TO HEADS

12.03.2011D1Trans Narva4-0FC Kuressaare
18.09.2010D1Trans Narva5-1FC Kuressaare
14.08.2010D1FC Kuressaare1-4Trans Narva
12.06.2010D1Trans Narva3-0FC Kuressaare
20.03.2010D1FC Kuressaare0-1Trans Narva
26.09.2009D1Trans Narva10-0FC Kuressaare

Trans Narva love playing this lot it would seem. Only one aberration - a 1-0 loss in the midst of 5 spankings. Away from home, 0-1 and 1-4. The hope is they will repeat the 1-4

LEAGUE POSITION - estonian league - 9th v 4th in the league ( a league of only 10 sides)

HOME TEAM - KURES

RECENT HOME FORM - DLLLWLLW - wins against 8th and 6th in the league.Losses against 1st, 2nd 3rd, 5th and 7th. Guess who they are playing today - yes 4th! A positive sign for Trans Narva if kures are losing at home to the top 5. Losses against 1st, 2nd and 5th were only 1-0's so something to note! In 4 of those 5 home losses, Kures could not score a goal.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLDLLLLLLLWDLLLWD - again let's look at the recent positive results. The 2 wins were the home wins mentioned above.Draws were both away, both score draws against 2nd and bottom ( 10th) The draw v bottom was a very messy match.

GOAL TRENDS - 0.88 scored and 1.5 conceded on average at home. 5 losses in 8 home matches. Inconsistent and inconclusive as regards over/under 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 7 at home without a draw ( in all competitions)

AWAY TEAM - TRANS NARVA

RECENT AWAY FORM - DDDLWLWW - 3 away wins in last 4 - the loss was against top of the league. Recent wins of 3-0 v 5th, 1-0 v 6th and 7-0 v 10th augurs well against 9th today.

Away losses came against both tallin sides ( 1st and 3rd)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWDWDWLLWWLDWWWL - last 4 matches have seen 3 consecutive wins then that loss v 2nd in the league.All losses have come against 1st, 2nd or 3rd - any coincidence? implication is that trans narva can cope admirably with the rest of the league with a draw the worse case.

3 draws at the start of the season all came away from home against 7th, 5th, 8th. Remember we are playing 9th today. Which scoreline will it be? The 7-0 thrashing of 10th or the 1-1 draw v 8th?

GOAL TRENDS - last 3 matches all over 3.5 goals with one over 4.5 and one over 6.5 goals. 4 of the last 5 away matches over 2.5 goals. Trans have scored in 6 of their last 7 away matches.They have only lost away against top 3 sides.

STREAKS - 2 match away winning streak - 4 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this could be a 7-0 , a 1-0 or a 1-1. The head to heads suggest a win. The fact kures have gone 7 without a draw indicates an away win as I cannot see them winning. Kures have lost at home against 1st, 2nd , 3rd, 5th and 7th and are playing 4th today ( do note the 1-0 losses against 2 of top 3 which is why I mentioned the 1-0 possibility). Kures were unable to score in 4 of those 5 losses.

3 away wins in last 4 for Trans Narva - the loss against a top 3 side. Scored 3,1,7 in those away wins. All losses for Trans against top 3 indicating worse case today a draw against a team who have not had a draw in last 7 and Trans no draw away in last 4.

HEAD TO HEADS

12.03.2011D1Ajax Lasnamae1-5JK Sillamae Kalev

Scoreline signals that Ajax are newcomers to the Estonian League.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 10th ( of 10)

HOME TEAM - SILLAMAE

RECENT HOME FORM - DWWLLLDL - and they are 1.1 to win today having not won in last 5. Tells you how poor ajax are. Losses against 8th, 4rd, 3rd and 1st and 1-1 draw against 2nd, so to be fair they have played all of the top 4 at home which does not flatter their form.Wins against 6th and 7th. In the context of playing bottom side today, I would not be concerned about losing to top 4.


RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWDWWLLLLLWWDWLL - season started off superbly but met 5 losses on the trot against 8th and 2 matches each against 3rd and 4th. Most recent losses, both 1-0's , came against 1st and 6th - 65th and 80th minute goals . Recent wins came against 7th, 8th and 9th which augurs well against 10th today.

GOAL TRENDS - average 1.13 scored , 1.38 conceded at home. Last 5 wins for Sill at home came without conceding a goal and they are primed to do that today.

STREAKS - 6 at home without a win not of great concern as they were playing top 4.

AWAY TEAM - AJAX

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLLLLL - look at the scorelines -

Sat05/03/11MEILevadia3 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat19/03/11MEIKuressaare1 - 1Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Tue22/03/11MEITrans7 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat09/04/11MEIFlora6 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat23/04/11MEIKalju4 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat07/05/11MEITammeka5 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat21/05/11MEIViljandi3 - 1Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat11/06/11MEIPaide1 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView events

Huge losses to 1st, 2nd, 4th, 7th, 8th and playing 5th today Have failed to score in 6 away matches of 8.

RECENT OVERALL FORM -

Sat05/03/11MEILevadia3 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat12/03/11MEIAjax Lasnamäe1 - 5Sillamäe KalevView eventsMore info
Sat19/03/11MEIKuressaare1 - 1Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Tue22/03/11MEITrans7 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat02/04/11MEIAjax Lasnamäe1 - 2PaideView eventsMore info
Sat09/04/11MEIFlora6 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat16/04/11MEIAjax Lasnamäe0 - 0ViljandiView eventsMore info
Sat23/04/11MEIKalju4 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat30/04/11MEIAjax Lasnamäe0 - 3TammekaView eventsMore info
Sat07/05/11MEITammeka5 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat14/05/11MEIAjax Lasnamäe0 - 3KaljuView eventsMore info
Sat21/05/11MEIViljandi3 - 1Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Sat28/05/11MEIAjax Lasnamäe0 - 3FloraView eventsMore info
Sat11/06/11MEIPaide1 - 0Ajax LasnamäeView eventsMore info
Tue14/06/11MEIAjax Lasnamäe0 - 7TransView eventsMore info
Sat18/06/11MEIAjax Lasnamäe2 - 2KuressaareView events

More impact in this visual format. - they failed to score in 11 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - overwhelmingly over 2.5 goals where ajax is concerned -One anomoly was a 1-0 loss to Paide.

STREAKS - 18 games overall without a win. 10 away without a win and 5 match away losing streak.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - looks wholly justified this 1.1 quote and the ideal should again be a win to nil, 3-0, 4-0, 5-0.

5pm - Dinamo Kiev v FK Senica - 1.33 home - this is a friendly with 2 halves of 35 minutes -Senica are a Slovakian side missing their striker who scored 18 for them last season. Looks a messy match to involve ourselves in. If the market is liquid, the 1.33 for Kiev may be worth a speculative lay. They are missing some players from the Recent under 21 tournament from the National Side.
745pm - Galway Utd v St Patricks - 1.23 away - you know what I think about Irish football and its unpredictability but Galway really are consistent in the fact they consistently get smashed!

HEAD TO HEADS

02.05.2011PRSt Patrick's Dublin5-2Galway United
04.03.2011PRGalway United0-3St Patrick's Dublin
03.09.2010PRGalway United1-1St Patrick's Dublin
02.07.2010PRSt Patrick's Dublin4-2Galway United
26.04.2010PRGalway United0-2St Patrick's Dublin
05.03.2010PRSt Patrick's Dublin2-0Galway United

nearly a clean sweep for St Pats

LEAGUE POSITION - 10th of 10 v 2nd. goal difference -38 to +14

HOME TEAM GALWAY

RECENT HOME FORM - LDLLLLLLL - emphatically poor.Have lost 3-0 and 5-2 already to St Pats this season.

Only lost 1-0 v top side at home though again highlights potential inconsistencies in Ireland.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - 12 losses on the trot. Only win has come away at Bohemians.

GOAL TRENDS - 56% over 2.5 goals at home. Have failed to score in 78% of matches. 8 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals with the exception a 2-0 loss.Have conceded in 16 of 18 matches this season.Have failed to score in 9 of last 11 matches.

STREAKS - 7 match home losing streak - 9 at home without a win - 12 match overall losing streak -

AWAY TEAM - ST PATS

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDWWWWW - hugely contrasting with Galway.Losses away have come against 1st and 4th.Have scored 3-4-3 against the bottom 3 away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLLWDLDDWWWDWWWDWW - superb form.3 of last 4 draws have come at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 44% over 2.5 goals. 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Away to bottom 3, 2 over 3.5 and 1 over 4.5 goals.Have conceded in all of last 5 matches. Have scored in 11 of last 12 matches.

STREAKS - 5 match away winning streak.6 away without defeat, 12 overall without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - dare I say it, this looks straightforward? Remember this is the Irish Premier league where anything can happen, and usually does! A bias towards goals this evening , but a poor show in over 2.5 goals figures for galway at home. That said, St Pats away to bottom 3 have scored 3 minimum.


9pm - North Korea U17 v Netherlands U17 -1.34 away - FIFA U17 World Cup in Mexico and no real surprises yesterday as Brazil won easily as did Germany. If these dutch nippers mirror their more illustrious first team, then they will bring home the points. But we know from the First team of North Korea, that they are likely to be industrious and defensive.
1159pm - Jamaica U17 v Argentina U17 - 1.34 away. Argentina lost 3-0 to France on June 18th so this becomes a must win. The story is the same for the Jamaicans who were beaten by Japan. This World Cup is in a Group Format so it is vital both teams win - so can we discount the draw?
The Jamaicans are looking for their first ever goal in this competition! Obviously the locals are going to be hostile towards Argentina - great rivals and could this affect the youngsters? Only 1-0 and a second half goal beat jamaica -hint of a tough to beat defensive unit?
1159pm - Mexico U17 v Congo U17 - 1.61 home - a surprisingly big price for Mexico considering they are playing in Mexico. 1-0 win over the Netherlands is a good scoreline for the Congolese who are likely to be super fit and enthusiastic - the usual trait of African sides. Mexico beat Korea 3-1 after coming back from behind, and my instinct tells me this is likely to be cagey early doors with a 0-0 back to lay trade an option for 15 or so minutes? Congo have a midfielder called Mavis - when asked about the match he replied " I don't really know, Rita Luvvy"
How important will home support be today?

TENNIS
12pm
Foretz Gacon v Petkovic - 1.09 Pet - 139th v 13th - 1 head to head on clay straight sets win for Petkovic.
Hantuchova v Diatchenko - 1.1 hant - 23rd v 168th.
Kvitova v Glatch - 1.08 Kvit - 8th v 173rd -Glatch won sole head to head on hard in 2009 when kvit ranked 48th - a marked change in
rankings now.
Pavlyuchenkova v Tsurenko - 1.07 Pav - 14th v 141st in the rankings.
1pm
A Beck v Roddick - 1.05 Rod - 156th v 10th in the rankings.No head to heads.
Rezai v S Williams - 1.05 for Mike Tyson's twin sister - 61st v 25th - Tysonette on the decline but too much today? RAnkings
suggest Rezai can put some some resistance?
215pm
Kukushkin v Federer - 1.01 - again look to 3-0 sets ? - 61st v 3rd in the world - could put up some resistance? Or are the Top 10
a class apart?
Malisse v Zverev - 1.14 Mal - 42nd v 103rd - no head to heads.
230pm
Ferrer v Paire - 1.05 Fer - 6th in the World v 115th should open the doors for a 3-0 potential sets win although the 1.49 signals
a battle.You can dutch 3-0 and 3-1 for a 1.11 return.
3pm
Wozniacki v Parra Santonja - 1.03 - look to 2-0 sets for Woz? 1st v 105th -1.22 for 2-0 sets must be a goer with such a gulf in
rankings - outside the top 100!
330pm
Soeda v Tsonga - 1.03 - 3-0 sets or is Tsonga too unreliable for 3-0 straight sets. He was very good at Queens reaching
The Final - 131st v 19th
345pm
Stosur v Czink - 1.06 STOS - 10th v 262nd - 1-0 head to heads 6-4 , 6-1 in hard in 2004.
415pm

Chardy v Djokovic - 1.02 Djok - reliable enough for a 3-0 set win?54th v 2nd in the World. 5-0 head to heads for Novak - 4 hard
and 1 clay and he has not dropped a set.1.25 for 3-0 sets.
430pm
Bartoli v Pliskova - 1.06 Bart - 9th v 229th and 1-0 head to heads 2007 clay 6-1 6-2
Li v Kudryavtseva - 1.09 li - 4th v 72nd - you would hope the top 4 in the world are, well, a world apart from those outside the
top 50.
445pm
Govortsova v A Radwanska - 1.11 Rad - 101st v 11th and 1 head to head 1-0 win hard 2010 6-2 6-3
5pm
Chakvetadze v Sharapova - 1.06 Shar - 52nd v 6th in the world 6-0 in head to heads for Sharapova - no grass head to heads -
last 3 meetings in 2007 all 2 set wins for Sharapova. Is that too long ago to be relevant and applicable today?
515pm
Nalbandian v Reister - 1.12 Nalb - 23rd v 135th - no head to heads.
630pm
Ivanovic v Oudin - 1.15 Iv - 18th v 87th - 1 head to head 2009 on hard -ivanovic went a set down.
Zheng v Ondraskova - 1.13 - 84th v 110th - short odds for such a small gulf in rankings.

There are many ways we can create a one a day here. 3 x 1.06 shots makes 1.18, or a 1.12 shot and a 1.06 shot ( ideal as only
2 to rely upon?Or rely on one match such as Ivanovic at 1.15? Or a 3-0 sets for one of the big boys playing today
such as Federer or Djokovic ( and the ladies - Wozniaki)

550 BALLINROBE

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Dorset Square, 6/1 Lucky Spring, 8/1 Gudnis Gracious Me, 9/1 Apache Drums, 10/1Hearthstead Dream, 12/1 Kristal Komet, 14/1 New Destination, 14/1 Sky Pilot, 16/1 Brog An Ri, 16/1 Mosman Park, 20/1Moby Dick, 20/1 Playdate, 33/1 Carlowsantana, 33/1 The Pott Reidy, 50/1 Blaze Trailer, 50/1 Canulos.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DORSET SQUARE stands out like a sore thumb in this company, but even without him in it, this is an above-average contest for this grade, with Lucky Spring, Apache Drums and Sky Pilot all appealing as ones that could well prove much better than their marks in time. [Kevin Blake]


6/5 - - - - 7/1 - huge price gap but 19 runner handicap in Ireland and 4 places - possible traffic problems? Smullen /Mullins combo though is very tempting.


245 BEVERLEY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Palomar, 9/2 Porgy, 13/2 Hel´s Angel, 10/1 Kames Park, 12/1 White Deer, 33/1 Jenny Soba, 33/1 Miss Wendy, 50/1 Kathindi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It can be a little unnerving to see a fairly useful performer dropped into this grade but PALOMAR (nap) has held his own in hot handicaps on the Flat and over hurdles and it will be disappointing if he can't take this.[Chris Wilson]

2 non runners now makes this a good race - 5 under 25/1 for 3 places. Surely Palomar can be competitive?


400 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Megalala, 7/4 Penang Cinta, 9/2 Sanctum, 14/1 Battle Axe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MEGALALA was just caught after going clear at Newbury last time and could be tough to reel in off just 1lb higher. Penang Cinta is 5-10 at this track and could be a big threat if back near the form of his C&D win last month. [David Moon]

4 runners, 3 under 16/1 and 2 places. An interesting probability race.

600 NEWTON ABBOTT

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Zakatal, 5/2 Ambrose Hill Lad, 7/2 On The Bridge, 15/2 Roanstar, 16/1 Our Double Diamond, 33/1 Cheekychap, 33/1 Lannacombe Clover, 50/1 Praise Hymn, 66/1 Court Finale, 80/1 Cladding, 100/1 Pitton Flight.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ambrose Hill Lad has a bit to prove switched to hurdles by his leading trainer and looks vulnerable. Irish point winner On The Bridge should go well, but this could well be the day that ZAKATAL comes good for current connections and he gets the vote. [Dave Orton]

4 under 16/1 and 5 under 25/1


SHORTLIST

445pm - Kuressaare v Narva Trans - 1.22 away - this looks an obvious away win. My concern is that the home side have kept 2 of the top 3 to 1-0 losses at home. 1-0 is always a precarious scoreline. Kuressaare have not scored in 4 of their 5 defeats against top 5 sides. They are playing another top 5 side today and this really should be a Trans away win.

445pm - Sillamae Kalev v Ajax Lasnamae - 1.1 home - this looks as straightforward as they come, albeit in a 10 team estonian league, and again the temptation is to add this to a tennis bet to up the odds for the day.


745pm - Galway Utd v St Patricks - 1.23 away - St Pats have scored 8-2 in 2 matches this season against Galway. Poor home form plays winning away form. Take away the fact irish football is poor and the form points the way to a nice away win.

1pm - A Beck v Roddick - 1.05 Rod - add that 1.05 to the 1.1 for Sillamae?

230pm - Ferrer v Paire - 1.05 Fer - huge gap in class points to another fairly safe bet here.

3pm - Wozniacki v Parra Santonja - 1.03 - 1st v 156th in the world so surely 1.22 for 2-0 in sets must be a goer here.

345pm - Stosur v Czink - 1.06 STOS - 10th v 262nd - again a huge gulf in class.

415pm - Chardy v Djokovic - 1.02 Djok - 1.25 for 3-0 sets - 5-0 head to heads without dropping a set.

430pm - Bartoli v Pliskova - 1.06 Bart - 9th v 229th - another huge gulf in rankings.

515pm - Nalbandian v Reister - 1.12 Nalb - 23rd v 135th - straight bet on Nalb?

550 BALLINROBE - Dorset square should place with 4 places - potential traffic problems with 19 runners.

245 BEVERLEY - interesting race to look at - 1.19 to place for Palomar in a race where 5 are under 33/1 - huge drop in class to
class 6 claiming company.

400 BRIGHTON - should be 3 horses for 4 places.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

445pm - Kuressaare v Narva Trans - 1.22 away - dominant head to heads and should be a straightforward away win. CONCERNS - 1-0 losses for Kures against 2 of top 3. BUT they have lost at home to all of top 5 in the Estonian League and did not score in 4 of 5 losses against top 7 at home. Narva Trans have scored 3,1,7 in 3 of their last 4 away matches. A poor betting market on Betfair. Ladbrokes has marked this match up and there are no liquidity issues.

445pm - Sillamae Kalev v Ajax Lasnamae - 1.1 home
CONCERNS - home form very poor for Sillamae recently but on closer inspection it was against top 5. Ajax are terrible and are likely to lose to nil. very illiquid market. Similarly, the match is at major bookies so there are no liquidity issues there ( remember Betfair is different as it relies on other people putting the odds up)

230pm - Ferrer v Paire - 1.05 Fer

3pm - Wozniacki v Parra Santonja - 1.03 - 1.22 2-0 in sets looks obvious if the gulfs in rankings play out on court.

345pm - Stosur v Czink - 1.06 STOS - 10th against 262nd.

430pm - Bartoli v Pliskova - 1.06 Bart - 9th v 229th

A multiple pays out 1.14

4 Selections Chosen
1Ferrer v Paire (Backing David Ferrer @ 1.03)
2Wozniacki v Parra Santonja (Backing Caroline Wozniacki @ 1.03)
3Stosur v Czink (Backing Samantha Stosur @ 1.03)
4Bartoli v Pliskova (Backing Marion Bartoli @ 1.03)

4-Folds
SelectionsOdds*StakePotential win
1,2,3 and 41.14£100.00£14.00
*Odds shown are indicative and may vary. More info

Poor value though as betfair as reduced the real match odds in the multiples market.






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