Sunday 26 June 2011

26/6

German ladies are imperious in their field. Concerns that 1st round of World Cup might bring a surprise? Solid bet though.
Elsewhere , can Carlton House gain amends for lost shoe at Epsom for Queen? You would expect so.
Esentepe is intriguing for me. 4th in a class 1 last time out, and back to a class 4 today and one of 4 under 18/1.

*****ONE A DAY - 5pm - German (W) v Canada (W) - back German Women in the match odds at 1.11***** - 9 clean sheets in last 10 matches, scoring 4,7,5,5,2,8,2,5,5,3 - they only lose against USA it would seem. The only downfall would be nerves in this World Cup to stop the German ladies collecting.




Misty for me a 6 length winner. Now I was not expecting that! Placed with ease of course.

130pm - Amkar v CSKA Moscow - 1.5 away

HEAD TO HEADS

13.03.2011D1CSKA Moscow2-0Amkar Perm
28.11.2010D1Amkar Perm0-0CSKA Moscow
12.03.2010D1CSKA Moscow1-0Amkar Perm
09.08.2009D1CSKA Moscow1-0Amkar Perm
05.04.2009D1Amkar Perm0-0CSKA Moscow

tight matches with 2 0-0's for CSKA away


LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 1st, 19 v 31 points.

HOME TEAM - AMKAR -


RECENT HOME FORM - WDLLDWWDW - losses at home v 2nd and 12th losing 3-1 to 2nd .REcent wins against 16th, 13th and 11th all 1-0 wins hardly impressive.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLWDLWLWDW - losses against 7th, 14th , 12th , 2nd , 9th - wins against 16th, 11th, 13th, 8th.

GOAL TRENDS - 4 wins, 2 losses, 3 draws, 6 clean sheets, 0.78 scored 0.68 conceded at home.

STREAKS - unbeaten in last 5 with highest goalscore in those of 1-0.

AWAY TEAM - CSKA

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDWWW - draws against 4th and 12th saw CSKA leading. The 2-2 was a 93rd minute equaliser for the opponents - gutting! Wins against 16th, 11th, 15th and a 3-0 v Zenit awarded after Zenit played an illegible player. None too impressive on the surface is it? But they can only beat the team put infront of them and are playing 10th today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWWDLDWWDWWWW - sole loss this season v 8th - Spartak Moscow. Draws against 4th, 7th, 9th , 12th,.

GOAL TRENDS - 4 wins, 2 draws, 3 clean sheets 2.5 scored, 0.83 conceded on average.

STREAKS - 10 without a loss, 8 away without a loss.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the calibre of team CSKA has been beating away has been low which might flatter away form this early in the season,, but they remain unbeaten and scored first in their 2 draws. Perhapas a back to lay trade for them to score first today? Great goalscoring record away, averaging 2.5 augurs well for possible overs, but only 0.68 average conceded by Amkar at home may scupper that.

2pm - Nigeria (W) v France (W) - 1.32 away - France have won 11 in 12 in qualifying but expect Nigeria to show the African trait of enthusiasm and athleticism. Can we take these matches seriously as betting mediums? Not the best technical football and the goalkeepers make Robert Green look good.
France have won 9, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 12 overall, the loss 2-1 v Holland in the Cyprus Cup.
Nigeria have DDLD their last 4 matches, and it is hard to gauge the quality of the teams they have beaten to get to the World Cup.
3pm - Drogheda v Dundee Utd - 1.54 away - pre season begins? Drogs are in a very poor Irish League and Dundee United are in a poor SPL. I doubt this match will be stopping a nation at 3pm.
345pm - Rubin Kazan v Kuban Krasnodar - 1.37 home

HEAD TO HEADS

13.03.2011D1Kuban Krasnodar0-2Rubin Kazan
29.11.2009D1Kuban Krasnodar0-3Rubin Kazan
14.03.2009D1Rubin Kazan3-0Kuban Krasnodar
27.10.2007D1Rubin Kazan2-2Kuban Krasnodar

Last 3 wins without conceding in the league.

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 7th after 15 matches. A win will take Rubin 2nd.

HOME TEAM - RUBIN KAZAN

RECENT HOME FORM - WDDWDWWW and an unbeaten run, since 9th July 2010 of WWWWWWWDDWDDWDWWW - pretty impressive. Only 1 loss in last 26 at home was against CSKA and a 1-0. Draws against 6th, 10th, 16th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL -WWLDLDDWDDWDWWW - losses against 1st and 5th. Wins against 4th, 9th, 11th, 12th, 13th recently. And playing 7th today.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 wins, 3 draws and 5 clean sheets at home. 1.75 scored 0.38 conceded

STREAKS - 10 without a loss, 9 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - KUBAN

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWLDDLL - were not in Premier in 2010. - wins were 1-0's against 12th and 13th. Draws against 5th and 1st - 80th minute equaliser against CSKA, and 0-0 draw against anzhi. Losses against 3rd, 4th, 6th, 15th and playing 2nd today. Warning though that 3 of the losses were 1-0's and you suspect already that this team is set up to defend away from home.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWLWWLWDDDWLLL - last 3 losses were all 1-0's - 4 of the 5 wins this season were at home against 8th, 10th, 11th, 13th ,14th -not a sniff of a win over a top 5 side.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 4 losses, 2 draws 3 clean sheets, 0.5 scored, 0.75 conceded away from home.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS Kuban's problems I feel are away from home, and were in their previous season outside the Premier League. They have a good defensive set up away from home, which resulted in 3 of 4 losses being 1-0's. CSKA could only score 1 against them, and I suspect Rubin will not lose today, and should win eventually in a tight encounter. 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 possible scorelines? Kuban's most recent scorelines have been 0-0, 1-1, 1-1, 3-2 ( anomolous?), 1-0loss, 1-0 loss, 1-0 loss) and away it is even more compelling

Sun20/03/11PRLTom' Tomsk0 - 1Kuban' KrasnodarView eventsMore info
Sat09/04/11PRLDinamo Moskva1 - 0Kuban' KrasnodarView eventsMore info
Sat23/04/11PRLVolga0 - 1Kuban' KrasnodarView eventsMore info
Sat30/04/11PRLLokomotiv Moskva2 - 1Kuban' KrasnodarView eventsMore info
Sat14/05/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala0 - 0Kuban' KrasnodarMore info
Sun29/05/11PRLCSKA Moskva1 - 1Kuban' KrasnodarView eventsMore info
Tue14/06/11PRLKrylya Sovetov1 - 0Kuban' KrasnodarView eventsMore info
Wed22/06/11PRLZenit1 - 0Kuban' Krasnodar

I would entertain a 0-0 back perhaps in the hope the 1st goal is a lateish goal. We might get a reasonable move after 15 minutes.

5pm - Asker v Randaberg - 1.36 home - Norwegian 2nd tier has been surprisingly good to me of late.

HEAD TO HEADS

no head to heads suggest perhaps Randaberg are promoted this season.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 16th of 16.

HOME TEAM - ASKER

RECENT HOME FORM - DDWDLW - only one loss against 12th -draws against 8th, 13th and 2nd, 2 1-1's and a 0-0. Were behind in both 1-1's

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWDDWWDDWLLW - losses against 7th and 12th - 4 of the 5 draws were score draws. Draws against 14th, 8th, 4th, 13th.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 1 loss , 3 draws, 2 clean sheets, 1 scored, 0.83 conceded at home.

STREAKS - 4 without a draw, 2 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - RANDABERG

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLL, scorelines

Sun10/04/111.DBryne7 - 0RandabergView eventsMore info
Mon25/04/111.DAlta4 - 1RandabergView eventsMore info
Mon16/05/111.DKongsvinger4 - 1RandabergView eventsMore info
Sun29/05/111.DSandefjord4 - 0RandabergView eventsMore info
Mon13/06/111.DSandnes Ulf4 - 2RandabergView eventsMore info
Thu16/06/111.DHamarkameratene3 - 0Randaberg

against 2nd,4th, 7th, 10th, 11th,, conceding a minimum of 3 goals.


RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLDLWLDLLL - draws against 1st and 8th and win against 14th

GOAL TRENDS - 0.67 scored and 4.33 conceded on average away.

STREAKS - 6 without a win, 10 away without a win., 6 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - we opposed Randaberg last time as a one a day and it was an easy 3-0 win for Hamkam. Same again today? Concern that ASker have drawn 3 at home so far.

5pm - Germany (W) v Canada (W) - 1.11 home - FIFA Women's World Cup. I really cannot see the Fraulein letting up here. Totally dominant in ladies football, it seems only the USA can beat them. Last head to head was a 5-0. Germans have won last 10 matches and lost 2 against, guess who? - the USA. In all matches bar the USA matches, the Germans scored 4,7,5,5,2,8,2,5,5,3 with 9 clean sheets out of 10.
The Canadians have won 8 of their last 12, 4 of those were 1-0's.Losses have come v the USA and Sweden and draws against the Swiss and Dutch. The USA loss was 2-1 where they were drawing 1-1. Any conclusions to be drawn regarding possible shocks, the likes of which we have seen with the U17 World Cup in Mexico? The Germans are the hosts too so this really is a boon.
6pm - Spartak Moscow v Rostov - 1.41 home

HEAD TO HEADS

14.03.2011D1FK Rostov4-0Spartak Moscow
30.10.2010D1Spartak Moscow2-1FK Rostov
09.07.2010D1FK Rostov1-0Spartak Moscow
01.11.2009D1Spartak Moscow5-1FK Rostov
11.07.2009D1FK Rostov0-1Spartak Moscow
03.03.2009CFSpartak Moscow2-0FK Rostov

a mixed bag but Spartak at home keep winning and away find it difficult.

LEAGUE POSITION - 8th v 14th after 15 matches.

HOME TEAM - SPARTAK MOSCOW

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWLWDL - losses against 4th and 10th, Wins against 9th, 13th, 16th . Draws against 3rd and 11th

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWLDLWWLWWLDDWL - mixed bag - losses against 4th, 2nd, 10th, 5th, 7th and 14th.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 2 losses, 2 draws, 5 clean sheets, 1 scored 0.57 conceded at home.

STREAKS - no standout.

AWAY TEAM - ROSTOV

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDLLLDLD - draws against 12th, 15th and 6th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLDLLWLDLWDLLLD - wins against 8th, 10th and 11th. More likely NOT to win, than win. One of those wins was against today's opponents at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 losses , 3 draws no cleansheets, 0.75 scored , 2 conceded away.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - only 3 wins all season makes Rostov logically opposable (albeit a little early in the season). In head to heads, it seems Rostov lose when they visit Spartak, and Spartak lose when they visit Rostov) Rostov concede 2 on average away. Only 1 scored at home, on average for Spartak though. Tough to call. I suspect Rostov will not win, they have not kept a clean sheet away this season so if 0-0 late on, or Rostov are leading, get ready to pounce you inplay traders.

9pm - Panama U17 v Germany U17 - 1.27 away - the Germans seem to be the only reliable team at this FA Cup, dispatching African
Cup winners Birkino Faso with ease when similarly priced. This tournament has very definitely been a bookies benefit. Beware this is not a must win for a GErman team who have already advanced having scored 9 and conceded 1 in their 2 previous matches. That old maxim " if they don't need to win, they rarely do" has stood up to all leagues and competitions. They seem, though, the standout side thus far.
210 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tough As Nails, 9/4 Lilbourne Lad, 3/1 Choir, 7/1 Vault, 12/1 French Emperor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: To win a race that has been so comprehensively dominated by Ballydoyle would be a great triumph for a small stable, but Michael Mulvany's TOUGH AS NAILS (nap) has a big chance, boasting a form-link to the Coventry winner Power which indicates he can get the better of Lilbourne Lad. [Alan Sweetman]

A quite superb card at the Curragh makes for a refreshing change from the usuaul Sunday dross. No suprise at all to see Choir leapfrog into favouratism for Aiden O'brien and Ryan Moore.

310 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Inxile, 3/1 Hamish Mcgonagall, 9/2 Invincible Ash, 7/1 Arctic, 8/1 Move In Time, 16/1 Calm Bay.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Irish sprints of this standard continue to provide fine pickings for British stables, and INXILE can keep up this season's good work at the main expense of Hamish McGonagall and Invincible Ash . [Alan Sweetman]

Inxile did the business on his last Irish Raid

350 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Carlton House, 3/1 Treasure Beach, 6/1 Seville, 8/1 Native Khan, 10/1 Memphis Tennessee, 12/1 Roderic O´connor, 20/1 Dunboyne Express, 20/1 Notable Graduate.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Aidan O'Brien has another strong hand in a race that he has monopolised in recent years.However, this time his team may lack the resources to cope with CARLTON HOUSE whose problems at Epsom meant that he was unable to show the real extent of his ability. The progressive Treasure Beach is the obvious danger. [Alan Sweetman]

All the media arselicking over Carlton House at Epsom has died down and it's take 2 for the Irish version. This is an 8 runner group 1, 3 places and 3 under 10/1. Watch out for Roderick O'Connor who could run a big race at a big price. Aiden o'Brien has 4 of the 8 runners here so likely there will be a pacemaker and tactics could play a part.

500 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Penitent, 4/1 Pirateer, 6/1 Barack, 6/1 Hujaylea, 7/1 Ask Jack, 10/1 Creekside, 12/1 One Spirit, 20/1 Asheerah, 20/1 Luisant, 25/1 Ezalli.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Penitent is the obvious one, but \ASK JACK ran an excellent ran in the circumstances on his latest outing and can be expected to go very well in this. [Kevin Blake]

Penitent must have a decent place only chance?

200 SALISBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Esentepe, 7/2 Bronze Angel, 11/2 Graphic, 13/2 Ballyheigue, 8/1 Merv, 14/1 Whinging Willie, 16/1 Drummond, 25/1 Jasie Jac, 25/1 Lunar Deity, 33/1 Clowance Keys, 66/1 Samasana.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Richard Hannon has won three of the last five runnings and his Chesham Stakes fourth ESENTEPEsets a decent standard. Stablemate Graphic is open to improvement with his debut experience under his belt, while Bronze Angel also figures in calculations.[Steve Boow]

The market has really contracted here, now 2 only under 10/1 with Esentepe ticking the boxes

515 SALISBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Gatewood, 13/2 Proof, 8/1 Kleitomachos, 10/1 Hawridge Song, 12/1 Red Eyes, 20/1Another Whisper, 25/1 Anatolian, 25/1 Charlie Fable, 25/1 Perfect Rapture, 25/1 The Calling Curlew, 33/1 Bright Abbey, 66/1Brunello.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GATEWOOD looks much the best on form and there's every chance he'll improve for today's stiffer test after sticking well to the task on his Windsor debut. Proof was further back in that race but also shaped as though more of a stamina test were needed and he may come on enough to cause most problems to the selection.[Emily Weber]

3 newcomers and 4 one time outers but a huge price gapper here after only the one run. 4/9 - - - - -7/1 now so likely the place only price will have disintegrated.

525 UTTOXETER

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Themanfromfraam, 13/8 Bold Perk, 16/1 Ammo Away, 16/1 Landenstown Pearl, 16/1Some Catch, 20/1 Diddley Dee, 50/1 Naughtyatiz, 50/1 Subtle Approach, 100/1 Escardo.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THEMANFROMFRAAM and Bold Perk are both well ahead of the game on what they've achieved for their new yards over fences of late. Preference is marginally for the former, who ran up against a well-handicapped one over hurdles between his two chase wins and is worth another chance off his lowly mark.[Emily Weber]

Front 2 to dominate? 3 only under 16/1 in this handicap hurdle. Theman has not been out of the first 2 in his last 3 jumps runs in 2011.


505 WINDSOR

BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Electra Star, 7/2 Lucky Legs, 7/1 Eastern Breeze, 8/1 Indian Mist, 8/1 Regal Salute, 12/1Renoir´s Lady, 20/1 Dansette, 20/1 Graceful Act, 25/1 Lady Valtas, 25/1 Tiger Tess.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ELECTRA STAR is taken to go one better this time, with Lucky Legs, Regal Salute andEastern Breeze next on the list among those that have run.[Richard Austen]

5 under 16/1 should make for a good probability race for the fav, who has Fallon to help out, was a good 2nd last time out, and has relative experience.


SHORTLIST

No Wimbledon today.

2pm - Nigeria (W) v France (W) - 1.32 away - greater organisation about the French and a solid qualifying display should mean they have too much for the Nigerians who are likely to be stubborn.

345pm - Rubin Kazan v Kuban Krasnodar - 1.37 home - last 3 wins in head to heads without conceding. IT seems they score they should win, and they have a long unbeaten home record.

5pm - Asker v Randaberg - 1.36 home - randaberg's away form makes them innediately opposable - right?

5pm - Germany (W) v Canada (W) - 1.11 home - beatable only by the USA it seems, these Fraulein. Possible nerves in first match? Canada lost 2-1 to USA

210 CURRAGH - a 3 horse race for 2 places - and the front 3 are all very tight price wise. Choir for Ballydoyle?

350 CURRAGH - 8 horses - 3 places - 3 under 11/1. Aiden O'brien has 4 runners. was the errant shoe to blame for Carlton House? Surely has a superb place only chance under Ryan Moore? 1.25 to place.

200 SALISBURY - Esentepe is one of only 4 under 18/1 for the stable who has made a habit out of winning this race.

515 SALISBURY - the market expects - Gatewood 1.11 to place, the only horse under evens in the place only market











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