Friday, 10 June 2011

10/6

Cygnet we would look for a clear round of jumping but he wasn't that fluent last time. Still from a probability perspective, it is hoped 4 under 16/1 dominate.

At present Dundalk look a good bet this evening in the Irish Premier League against a side who have not scored in 5 of their last 6 matches. Dundalk have scored 2, 3 home and away and won the lost against bottom 3 ( of which Drogs are 2nd bottom.)


***** 745pm - DUNDALK v DROGHEDA - BACK DUNDALK IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.31 ***** - Plenty of time to get the bets on. Not the most reliable of leagues and a hope Drogs continue to struggle to score and Dundalk continue to score.




No drifts in the market just at the off, and no lay gamble! Mexico won 5-0, and speculators could have got over 2.5 goals easily and halftime/fulltime ( only one goal scored before halftime).
Stella Point placed at 1.16, nowhere near the odds I saw earlier in the day.

1230pm - Hougang v Harimau Muda B - 1.28 home - Singapore Cup and Singapore top flight v Malaysian Premier League. Harimau have lost their last 6 matches, 4 of them 1-0 .Hougang are 6th in the Singapore league. Their last 3 games have been postponed - may have taken the edge off? Harimau are 10th of 12 - 5 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses Have lost all away bar win and draw against bottom 2. Tough match to weigh up as they are from different leagues but I would expect the Singapore league to be stronger.
5pm - Suduva v FBK Kaunas - 1.11 home - as with the Mexicans, perhaps a goals fest? Whilst I would like to focus on this match, the markets on betfair for this Lithuanian LEague match are far too illiquid
730pm - Al Ahly (Cairo) v Petrojet - 1.37 home- Egyptian Top flight. Not on soccerstats so I will not be using the betting research template I normally do.
Al Ahly have been in good nick of late with overall form of WWDWWWDW in the league - as a result after 23 matches they lie 2nd in the league. They have a game in hand and a win will take them joint top on points ( but 2nd on goal difference unless they win by 6) Draws came against 8th and 6th, and are playing 9th today.
At home, WWDDWWWD at home in the league. Draws against 14th, 1st and 8th.
4 of the last 5 matches in all competitions at home for Al Ahly have been 1-0's so slight concern there.
2 of those goals were 82nd and 83rd minute goals which hints at a 0-0 possible back to lay trade? Al Ahly may have trouble scoring.
Petrojet are outsiders as they have lost their last 4 matches, interestingly 2 3-1 losses then last 2 were 1-0 losses against 6th and 11th. Petrojet have scored 1,1,1,1,1,0,0, in their last 7 matches and hints again at a tight match today.
They have lost 5 of their last 6 and the 1-0 win was a 69th minute goal.
Not too bad away from home, LWDDWLWDWLL - 1-1 draw with 3rd, 3-1 win over 4th, and 5th beat them 3-1.
Al Alhy are unbeaten at home but 6 wins and 5 draws mean we cannot discount a draw.
This could be a tight match or the 3-1 could rear its ugly head. I would look for a 0-0 back to lay trade initially I think as the value trade here. Al Alhy unbeaten at home so lay of Petrojet if they score first?
745pm - Cork City v Athlone - 1.23 home

I cannot see a 1.23 shot here with that kind of recent head to head form!!

745pm - Dundalk v Drogheda - 1.27 home

HEAD TO HEADS

22.04.2011PRDrogheda Utd1-2Dundalk FC
10.09.2010PRDrogheda Utd1-3Dundalk FC
05.07.2010PRDundalk FC2-1Drogheda Utd
30.04.2010PRDrogheda Utd1-3Dundalk FC
14.03.2010PRDundalk FC2-2Drogheda Utd
18.02.2010CFDundalk FC2-1Drogheda Utd

Dundalk have won 5 of last 6 and also conceded in all matches - also all head to heads over 2.5 goals.

LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 9th - but 25 points plays 5 points. Drogs in desparate form.

HOME TEAM - DUNDALK

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDDDW - few draws creeping in there. Have drawn 1st and 2nd at home 1-1 and 5th and 7th both 0-0, but importantly, have beaten 8th and 10th , scoring 3 goals at home in both matches ( league of only 10) and Drogs are 9th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWDDWWWWL - recent loss was 1-0 v 2nd placed Sligo Rovers away from home. 3 of last 4 matches have been 1-0s - 2 wins 1-0 and a loss 1-0.

GOAL TRENDS - 29% over 2.5 goals at home but remember this is a small league so these stats are usually over exaggerated and from a small sample. 6 of last 7 matches under 2.5 goals . Last 4 home matches all under 2.5 goals ( a couple of 1-1's though) Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 - the only one they didn't was a 1-0 loss. Home and away against bottom 3, Dundalk have scored 3,2,2,2,3 -consistent and winning.

STREAKS - 7 at home without defeat - 5 overall without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - DROGS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLLLLW - recent win was 2-1 over Galway who happen to be bottom of the league.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - 13 losses, 2 draws and one loss overall sums them up - dire.

GOAL TRENDS - away to top 5 have conceded 32232 in their defeats ( ties in perhaps with Dundalk's performances against bottom 3? 62%over 2.5 goals away from home largely due to concession rate. 3 of last 4 have been over 2.5 goals.Have conceded in all matches this season. Have failed to score in 5 of last 6 matches.

STREAKS - 10 without a draw - 8 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - look all out opposable do the drogs, failing to score in 5 of last 6. Could signal a Dundalk win by 2 or 3

8pm -Shelbourne v Mervue Utd - 1.23 home
Not on soccerstats and First Division

A clean sweep by Shelbourne makes this interesting. 5 of the 6 head to heads over 2.5 goals.
3rd v 11th and 61 points play 19 points. Huge gulf in class it would seem.
Shelbourne - only one loss in last 12 was 3-2 against Monaghan when Shelbourne were leading.
Shelbourne have won 7 of last 8 matches.
5 of the scorelines were 1-0's which might sound some small alarm bells. A recent 1-0 against bottom side
Home form not too impressive - WDLWWDW - draws against 5th and 6th.
2 of last 3 wins were 1-0 wins.
4 losses in last 9 league matches not too bad for Mervue - I was expecting worse.Losses have come against 1st and 2nd but only beatn 1-0 by 2nd team;
A different story away - DLLWLWLLL-Wins against 12th and 7th. They were unlucky against Waterford(2nd) in that they had a man sent off and a penalty awarded.

2am - Grenada v Honduras - 1.11 away - again goals likely? - 4-0 head to head in 2009. Gold competition? - Grenada were beaten 4-0 by Jamaica and Honduras drew 0-0 with Guatemala. The odds point to another 4-0 mauling or thereabouts for the Grenadiers!


645 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Cala Santanyi, 5/2 Puttingonthestyle, 9/2 Sally Friday, 8/1 Galiando, 8/1 Pagan Warrior, 12/1Proper Charlie, 25/1 Emmeline Pankhurst, 66/1 Amor Patrice.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Puttingonthestyle is capable of winning races but the fitting of headgear is a slight concern andCALA SANTANYI gets the nod on this occasion. She has run well on both starts this year and may have a bit more improvement in her.[Paul Smith]

2 under 7/1 cannot be split here - Ryan Moore on Cala has had 2 runs 23 in form and has that all important experience.

900 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dashwood, 3/1 Volito, 8/1 C´mon You Irons, 10/1 Seamus Shindig, 10/1 Simple Rhythm, 14/1 Starwatch, 16/1 Luisa Tetrazzini.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Volito has been doing enough to think he has a race in him soon and the booking of Richard Hughes is a positive. That said, DASHWOOD is progressing at a rate of knots and he should prove up to overcoming his latest 6lb penalty.[Paul Smith]

8 down to 7 runners and still 3 places? Good form from fav but multiple handicap winners will end their winning run soon.

200 MR

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Cygnet, 2/1 Peadar Miguel, 7/1 Barnack, 10/1 Mathaaq, 14/1 Bedouin Bay, 20/1 Glancing, 25/1 Encompassing, 25/1 Mutamaleq, 33/1 General Lygon.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This will offer more of a stamina test than Huntingdon but PEADAR MIGUEL did enough there to suggest he can go very close if repeating the effort and the healthy allowance he receives from Cygnet tips the scales in his favour.[Jonathan Neesom]

4 under 16/1 for this novices hurdle and I like Maguire/McCain partnerships on favourites.

300 MARKET RASEN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Points Of View, 15/8 Stage Acclaim, 14/1 Laureldean River, 20/1 Alfloramoor, 33/1 Eco Boxer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POINTS OF VIEW has finished runner-up in his last three starts but there was nothing wrong with his attitude over hurdles last summer and this offers him a fine chance of chasing success. Stage Acclaim is the only viable alternative.[Jonathan Neesom]

2 under 14/1 and a beginners chase means that we need to see a clear round

650 NAVAN

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Maunsells Duke, 11/2 See You Smile, 6/1 Primalova, 8/1 Mo Saoirse, 10/1 Salaamie, 10/1Stones Peak, 10/1 The Educator, 12/1 Grey Steel, 12/1 Rita Pride.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: See You Smile ran well over this C&D in her penultimate start and despite conceding weight all round has to be considered from her favourable draw but in a race that lacks quality Dermot Weld's MAUNSELLS DUKE looks the pick dropping down to this minimum trip for the first time. [Brian Fleming]

Weld/Smullen favourite is very interesting here. Maunsells is now a non runner so See you smille a ready alternative?

505 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Grumeti, 11/2 Conjuror´s Bluff, 11/2 Prime Mover, 13/2 Secret Edge, 8/1 Amerthyst, 12/1Face Value, 12/1 Pandorica, 12/1 Sugar Hiccup, 14/1 Peira, 16/1 Spyder, 20/1 Cultural Desert, 25/1 Swaninstockwell, 25/1Uncle Dermot.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The likes of Conjuror's Bluff, Prime Mover and Secret Edge have the potential to do better now they are qualified for a mark but Haydock winner GRUMETI (nap) has the strongest 2011 form on offer and he should be capable of further improvement.[Steve Boow]

5/4 - - - 6/1 price gapper here in Grumeti.




SHORTLIST

745pm - Dundalk v Drogheda - 1.27 home - an inability for Drogheda to score in 5 of their last 6 makes them vulnerable to a team who have scored 2-3 in their matches against bottom 3 sides and won the lot.

2am - Grenada v Honduras - 1.11 away - over 2.5 goals may increase the odds but Honduras not as solid a betting proposition as Mexico.

200 MARKET RASEN - 4 under 16/1 but a novices hurdle means we would need a clear round. Cygnet for me at 1.17 appeals to place.

And that is it from me today in a very tricky day's horse racing . Cygnet we would look for a clear round of jumping but he wasn't that fluent last time. Still from a probability perspective, it is hoped 4 under 16/1 dominate.








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