28/6

What I am going to do today is put up Camberley Two in a 5 horse race for 3 places and then do an update in time for the races this evening. the earliest of which is 630 ( although Pint size has not run on the surface at Southwell and that is a big negative for me)

I will do an update on the blog only at around 630pm for the 650 Sligo and 8pm Southwell and will look to top up CAmberley two.

*****ONE A DAY - 500 BRIGHTON - BACK CAMBERLEY TWO TO PLACE ONLY***** TRY TO PLACE BET AS LATE AS POSSIBLE AS IT IS STILL 5 1/2 HOURS TIL RACE TIME. The probability of a strong market leader not finishing in the first 3 in a 5 horse race is small. I just hope that the horse completes and finds the undulations at Brighton to his liking.

There will be an update only on the BLOG for the sake of immediacy as the email might delay beyond the 650 SLigo if indeed that is the 2nd race.

www.cliveoneaday.com

password stable634

at around 630pm this evening ( assuming of course that Camberley two does not get beaten by 3 horses in a 5 horse race.

Job made easier yesterday with a reduction to 7 runners making York Glory highly likely to place.

1230pm - Albirex Niigata (S) v Balestier Khalsa - 1.23 home - I read both of yesterday's Singapore matches extremely well.

HEAD TO HEADS

06.04.2011	D1	Balestier Khalsa	0-1	Albirex Niigata (S)
26.07.2010	D1	Balestier Khalsa	1-1	Albirex Niigata (S)
03.06.2010	D1	Albirex Niigata (S)	0-1	Balestier Khalsa
08.03.2010	D1	Balestier Khalsa	1-0	Albirex Niigata (S)
03.11.2009	D1	Albirex Niigata (S)	3-0	Balestier Khalsa
24.07.2009	D1	Balestier Khalsa	2-0	Albirex Niigata (S)

Plenty of recent history and a mixed bag. No dominant team.

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 9th - 31 points plays 16 points.

RECENT HOME FORM HOME TEAM - ALBIREX -WLLWDWWWW - losses against 1st and 5th, and draw against 7th. Winning streak v 3rd, 12th, 1st, 10th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDLWWLWWWL - losses v 6th, 2nd and 8th. Losses v 6th and 8th were 1-0s ( ties in with tight head to heads against 9th?) Incident packed 1-0's. Albirex missed a penalty in one match, the opponents got a man sent off and scored an 84th minute winner. In the other match, Albirex lost to a penalty. Wins against 9th, 3rd, 12th, 11th, 10th 1st scoring 1,6,5,2,4,2. The 1 was against today's opponents.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw at home, 6 clean sheets. 2.12 scored, 1.06 conceded on average at home.

STREAKS - 9 without a draw overall.5 won at home in a row, 7 without a loss at home.

AWAY TEAM - BALESTIER

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWDWLLLLL - wins against 8th and 11th, draws against 5th and 6th. Losses against 2nd, 1st, 10th, 3rd, 7th. Playing 4th today and have lost against top 3 away. Have conceded 5,5,2,1,2 in those defeats failing to score in 4 of those 5 matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWLLLLWLLL - no draws! - losses v 4th, 2nd, 1st, 5th, 10th, 3rd, 7th, 6th. So lost to 1st all the way to 7th - top 7. Wins against 11th, 12th and 8th

GOAL TRENDS - 2 wins, 5 losses, 2 draws and 3 clean sheets away. 0.89 scored, 1.89 conceded on average away.

STREAKS - 12 games without a draw, 7 away without a draw, 6 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads are worryingly, and consistently, tight which means we cannot rule out a tight match. But does recent form supercede these head to heads? Balastier have lost recently to all of the top 7 home and away, and only beaten the whipping boys in 11th and 12th. 5 defeats on the trot away conceding 5,5,2,1,2.

For Albirex, Wins against 9th, 3rd, 12th, 11th, 10th 1st scoring 1,6,5,2,4,2. The 1 was against today's opponents.

9 without a draw for Albirex, 12 without a draw for Balastier perhaps an angle in?

2pm - Colombia (W) v Sweden (W) - 1.29 away - Women's World Cup - another potential banana skin as Colombia are on the way up. 5th v 30th in rankings, so Sweden should win, but there is no collateral form.

6pm - Sirius v Hammarby TFF - 1.34 home

HEAD TO HEADS

06.09.2010	D3N	Hammarby TTF	1-1	Sirius IK
24.05.2010	D3N	Sirius IK	1-2	Hammarby TTF

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 14th of 14 after 10 games

HOME TEAM - SIRIUS

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWDD - poor home form. losses v 2nd and 3rd and draws v 11th and 12th - both 1-1's and Sirius playing catch up in both games.

RECENT FORM OVERALL -

Sun	17/04/11	DI1	Boden	0 - 3	Sirius	View events	More info
Mon	25/04/11	DI1	Sirius	0 - 2	Vasalund	View events	More info
Sat	30/04/11	DI1	Forward	2 - 2	Sirius	View events	More info
Sun	08/05/11	DI1	Sirius	0 - 1	Väsby United	View events	More info
Sat	14/05/11	DI1	Dalkurd	1 - 2	Sirius	View events	More info
Mon	23/05/11	DI1	Sirius	2 - 0	Syrianska IF	View events	More info
Sat	28/05/11	DI1	Karlstad	0 - 3	Sirius	View events	More info
Sun	05/06/11	DI1	Sirius	1 - 1	IFK Luleå	View events	More info
Mon	13/06/11	DI1	Valsta Syrianska	1 - 2	Sirius	View events	More info
Mon	20/06/11	DI1	Sirius	1 - 1	Frej

Losses v 2nd and 3rd, draws v 7th, 10th 11th.

GOAL TRENDS - 1 win, 2 losses, 2 draws, 1 clean sheet.0.8 scored, 1 conceded at home.

STREAKS - only 10 matches to go on - 6 without a loss, 3 at home without a loss.

AWAY TEAM - HAMMARBY

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLLL conceding 2,3,1,2,4 against 8th, 6th, 11th, 10th, 12th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLWLDLDLL - win against 13th of 14 - 2 1-1 draws against 3rd and 7th

GOAL TRENDS - 5 losses, 0.2 scored and 2.4 conceded on average away.

STREAKS - 7 away without a win, 9 away without a draw

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads point to Hammarby not losing but they have lost 5 away on the trot, hence the market makers see a similar picture today against a team they historically have not lost against , albeit in 2 matches. 1 win only for Sirius at home in 5 makes this a difficult match to weigh up, Remember we do not need to get involved in every match researched if there is no angle in.

730pm - Tre Fiori v Valletta - 1.28 away - CHampions League would you believe! Tre Fiori are from San Marino and Valletta are from Malta. Naturally these 2 have never met, but the minnow status of San Marino on the international stage could hint that the odds are about right today?

2am - Peru v Senegal - 1.48 home - another in a series of International Friendlies featuring South American sides preparing for the Copa America? Peru's last 3 matches have been 0-0. Senegal's last match was 0-0. Again we cannot do any collateral form albeit we can suggest that Peru will be playing their strongest side. This game is taking part in Peru and I cannot track down any previews as yet

WIMBLEDON

215pm -Paszek v Azarenka - 1.15Az - there are no rankings on the WTA tennis website which is frustrating. Head to heads, 2008 Montreal to Azarenka 6-4 , 7-5

330 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Polperro, 9/2 Misty Isles, 15/2 Informed Award, 9/1 Cordillera, 10/1 Munaawib, 33/1 Miss Excel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POLPERRO sets a clear standard on his frame efforts in three useful 1m/1m2f maidens and should be able to convert a good opportunity for a yard which is 4-9 with 3yos at this track in recent seasons. The main form danger isMisty Isles, who took a good step forward when third on her comeback at Newbury. [David Moon]

Now even shorter 4/11 - - - - 5/1 price gapper here . Slight concern re possibility of softening ground for these maidens.

500 BRIGHTON

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Camberley Two, 11/2 Russian Ice, 9/1 Hawk Moth, 10/1 Konstantin, 25/1 His Grace, 40/1Arowana.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Lightly raced CAMBERLEY TWO found a big jolt of improvement when hammering his rivals here last week and had no trouble defying a penalty in an apprentice handicap at Salisbury on Sunday. He should be very hard to stop if turned out quickly and can complete a hat-trick. [David Moon]

1/2 - - -- 6/1 now in a 6 runner race. Still 3 places on Betfair? YES!! Again slight concern with the ground today but an outstanding probability surely that the fav can place in the first 3? - multiple handicap winners will stop winning eventually, but surely in a 50/50 race where he has only 3 to beat to place, he should place again?

215 HAMILTON

- I am afraid I cannot cut and paste at the moment as I am in an internet cafe as my home internet is weak. This is a 6 horse 2 year old maiden on good to soft ground 2/5 now and one of only 2 under 10/1, Vassaria has 2 3rd places . Niggles - half the field are newcomers

245 HAMILTON - this is a claimer which is a great probability race - 5 runners - 3 under 33/1 for 2 places - default to the favourite Tro Nesa 6/4, with 2nd fav 7/4 and 3rd fav 5/2 - really a pick and hope here.

650 SLIGO

4 horses for 2 places and 2 under 12/1 here - Waydownsouth the strong market leader - soft ground at Sligo

630 SOUTHWELL - Like York Glory's race, this is an ideal race - 8 runners - 3 places and 4 horses under 16/1 with an 11/10 - - - - 4/1 favourite. The only concern with Pint size is the fact he has not run on this surface. But probability wise, he is in an ideal position to place if handling Southwell's unique surface

800 SOUTHWELL - This is another ideal race, albeit a maiden. 8 runners - 3 places and 4 under 20/1 with the favourite at 10/11 currently ( do note the time of this race though) - the favourite Triviality has run at Southwell previously which counts for something.

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Albirex v Balastier - 1.23 home - head to heads are too tight to suggest a confident back of Albirex, but are these head to heads superceded by the recent form which has seen Balastier lose to all of the top 7 ( they are playing 4th today)?

330 Brighton - Polperro looks to have a great chance of placing in this maiden for 3 year olds + but the odds for the place are likely to be less than appealing - now a non runner as I go to check the price which hints that perhaps the ground at BRighton might be softer than advertised.

500 BRIGHTON - an outstanding probability race now as there are only 5 runners remaining for the 3 places on Betfair. Camberley two is only 1.05 to place though but the probability of him getting beaten by 3 horses in a 5 horse race is slight.

This race offers a superb chance for speculators to pick out of the 3 horses remaining under 33/1 to place

245 HAMILTON - a superb probability race this one - 3 horses under 50/1 for 2 places -

6/4 - Tro Nesa

2/1 Saucy Brown

5/2 Sands of Dee

None of the 3 can be dscounted and I would go, by default to the favourite at 1.36 to place

EVENING RACING

650 SLIGO - WAydownsouth at 1.08 to place in a 50/50 race - only 2 under 12/1 , Waydownsouth has won on soft ground which is what we have at Sligo today.

630 SOUTHWELL - an ideal race but not an ideal surface - - 8 runners - 3 places - 4 under 22/1 and an 11/10 - - - 4! favourite in Pint Size ( there are in fact only 3 under 11/1) The problem is that Pint Size has not raced on the Fibresand

Illiquid market at the moment for Pint size and this race.

800 SOUTHWELL - a 5 furlong maiden is perhaps not the ideal race, but this is an ideally profiled race - again 8 runners - 3 places - 3 under 22/1 and a 5/6 favourite in Triviality who has run 2nd of 10 at this surface previously.

The betting market is shockingly illiquid at present, as you would expect with 8 1/2 hours til race time. Looks an outstanding probability chance for Triviality to place albeit in a 5 furlong maiden. One thing a plus is that these are not 2 year olds

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

Albirex's head to heads are too tight for me to entertain a back of them, although recent form points to Balastier again falling short as they have done against all of the top 7 sides home and away.

500 BRIGHTON - outstanding probability chance on CAmberley two in a 5 horse race for 2 places. The odds though reflect that at 1.05

245 HAMILTON - speculators get ready - 3 horses and 2 places - take your pick and hope it is not the horse which finishes 3rd

650 SLIGO - Waydownsouth 1.08 to place and I had the idea that CAmberley two and Waydown could be our 2 pronged attack today?

800 SOUTHWELL - outstanding probability race as it is now a 7 runner affair for 3 places and there are only 3 horses under 22/1 here.

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