13/6

Guatemala for me today look like they can beat a very very poor Grenada side. Both teams have played the same 2 teams in the Gold Cup and the collateral form points to a Grenada side leaking 11 goals in 2 games, and Guatemala only 2 ( both 2nd half Jamaica goals -hinting at a strong defensive display - and the 2nd jamaican goal late on after Guatemala went a man down.

The Murray bet remains then from yesterday so if you want to get involved in Guatemala this evening, the match is at 1159pm

*****ONE A DAY - MURRAY TO BEAT TSONGA REMAINS FROM YESTERDAY and TODAY I WOULD BE HAPPY WITH GUATEMALA TO BEAT GRENADA IN THE MATCH ODDS AT 1.22 CURRENTLY*****

British Summer scuppered the Murray match. At least Cliff Richard was absent which was a bonus. I will look at the day's bets today and see if there is a bet stronger than Murray's. He still looks strong though.

6pm - Helsingborgs v GAIS - 1.56 home

HEAD TO HEADS

02.10.2010	D1	Helsingborgs IF	0-1	GAIS
03.05.2010	D1	GAIS	0-0	Helsingborgs IF
23.08.2009	D1	Helsingborgs IF	0-1	GAIS
13.04.2009	D1	GAIS	1-4	Helsingborgs IF

Last 3 head to heads so tight and 2 Gais away wins by the same scoreline. makes that 1.56 look layable if we were basing our decisions solely on head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 8th. Hels are 2nd and have 2 games in hand over top side Elfsborg so are in a strong position at present. 9 matches played as against 11 for the top side.

Gais have lost 4 of their 10 played so far.

HOME TEAM - HELSINGSBORG

RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWW - only 5 matches and this early in the season may not produce the kind of strong trends and stats we would want for betting and trading. 3 1-0 wins, a 1-1 draw and a 3-0 win ties in with head to heads in indicating this could be tight. 2 of the 1-0's were against 1st and 3rd - perhaps well matched sides? 3-0 was against 4th

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDDWLW - only loss was away against 5th . 4 scorelines have been 1-0 and 2 have been 1-1 which hints, albeit in a small sample, at goalscoring problems for Helsingsborgs, or for those with glasses half full, good defending.

GOAL TRENDS - 20% overs at home. Have scored in all home matches and kept a clean sheet in 4/5

STREAKS - 5 without defeat at home, 3 without a draw overall.

AWAY TEAM - GAIS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLL - win was against 2nd from bottom and draw against 3rd from bottom - telling? ( or must we remember that we are only 10 matches into the season). Losses have come against 7th, 9th and 11th and by conceding 2,2,3.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWWWDLLWLW - 4 of the 5 wins came at home against bottom 7 sides. It seems the losses occur as gais play those higher in the table, e.g. 2-0 loss at home to Elfsborg.

GOAL TRENDS - 40% of away matches over 2.5 goals but remember again the small sample of 5 matches and the fact they have not played any of the top 6 away from home. Have scored in all bar 2 matches this season.

STREAKS - 3 away without a win, 5 without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - it is hard to gauge how Gais will perform this time away against one of the top 6. Current limited scorelines tell us that they should concede at least 2 against better sides in the league. All their wins have come against bottom 7 sides. Concern with Helsingsborg simply not firing at the moment. They have a strong defence , yes, but are regularly just scraping by 1-0. Will this change against perceived weaker opponents today? The head to heads too point towards a tight match.

Again, as with Elfsborg yesterday, the sample of matches we have to deal with means that any decisions are not as accurate as if we were dealing with 20+ match samples.

So, by which side are you most persuaded ? Helsingsborg's inability to score more than 2 frequently at home coupled with the head to heads hinting at a 1-0 tight match or a 1-1.

Or are you persuaded by Gais's concession of 2,2,3 against 7th, 9th, and 11th, and a home loss 2-0 against current league leaders pointing to the concession today of at least 2 against Helsingsborg ( who have 2 games in hand lying 2nd)

6pm - IFK Goteborg v Djurgardens - 1.56 home

HEAD TO HEADS

29.05.2011	Cup	IFK Göteborg	1-0	Djurgårdens IF
22.08.2010	D1	Djurgårdens IF	2-0	IFK Göteborg
06.04.2010	D1	IFK Göteborg	1-1	Djurgårdens IF
24.08.2009	D1	Djurgårdens IF	0-0	IFK Göteborg
11.04.2009	D1	IFK Göteborg	6-0	Djurgårdens IF

Last 2 2010 league results throw a spanner in the works.

LEAGUE POSITION - 9th v 16th of 16.

HOME TEAM -GOTEBORG

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWWD - again a small sample.Loss against 2nd and 7th. Wins against 3rd and 8th and draw v 10th. Have not played the bottom 6 yet.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLWWWDDW - 2 losses at home and 2 away. Draws against 10th (home) and 11th ( away)

GOAL TRENDS - 40% over 2.5 goals at home.3 of last 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 8 of 10 matches this season. Have scored in all of last 6 matches.

STREAKS - 6 overall without defeat, 3at home.

AWAY TEAM - DJURGARDENS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDL - draw was a 0-0 v 3rd place.In all of the other away matches , conceded 3,2,3,3,.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLLLLWDLL - win was at home to 2nd bottom.Against 8th and 10th away from home, lost 2-1 and 3-2 ( playing 9th today)

GOAL TRENDS -80% away matches over 2.5 goals, as on 2 occasions have away scorelines been 3-2.Only 1 of last 4 matches has been over 2.5 goals. HAve failed to score in their last 3.

STREAKS - 5 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - do we oppose Djurgardens today based on their league performance this year, BUT they have not lost in their last 3 meetings against Goteborg. A tricky match to weigh up as Goteborg have not played to bottom 6 yet. On current form, the best Djurgardens can hope for today is a 0-0? Back Goteborg with 0-0 cover?

Again a limited sample of matches means form is not as accurate as it could be.

1159pm - Guatemala v Grenada - 1.22 home

Again basis solely on Gold Cup matches, and Guatemala have lost 2-0 to Jamaica. 2 2nd half goals, and one of the goals after Guatemala got a man sent off. The other match was a 0-0 v Honduras.

Grenada have played the same teams, losing 7-1 to Honduras and losing 4-0 to Jamaica.

This collateral form is all we really have to go on but it suggests Guatemala will win tonight especially if the Honduras collateral form is taken as accurate.

415 CARLISLE

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Judicious, 9/4 Sinatramania, 11/2 Rub Of The Relic, 16/1 Kathlatino, 16/1 Mangham, 20/1Ay Tay Tate, 20/1 So Bazaar, 25/1 Dandarrell, 25/1 Idealism.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not obvious who is going to make the running so JUDICIOUS may be tempted to go on to ensure himself a decent gallop at this shorter trip. He made a good impression when winning at Beverley and may be able to follow up, though there was also plenty to like about the way Sinatramania got the job done here last time and he is also respected.[Emily Weber]

2 dominate the market in this handicap. Faith in at least the fav to place?

820 ROSCOMMON

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Redera, 6/1 One For Joules, 6/1 Uncle Taffy, 8/1 Alderwood, 8/1 Tovaria, 10/1 Clancy Strand, 10/1 Mejd, 10/1 Prospectorous, 12/1 Madame Mado, 12/1 Quartz Debilleron, 14/1 Go On Ya Boyo, 14/1 Par Five, 14/1Strain Of Fame, 16/1 Vital Plot, 20/1 Baby Whizz, 20/1 First Trim, 20/1 Goidelic, 25/1 Erra Go On.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Tony Martin appears to hold the aces here, and Ruby Walsh's call in favour of the penalisedREDERA seems to make the decision straighforward, despite a healthy respect for the progressive Uncle Taffy. [Alan Sweetman]

7/4 in places and a price gapper with Ruby Walsh onboard.

300 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Mawsem, 7/1 Final Flyer, 9/1 Cosmic, 12/1 Farfields, 18/1 Quivvy Waters, 20/1 Brompton Brow, 20/1 Leroy Lately, 20/1 Miss Galross, 33/1 Cool Star, 40/1 French Seventyfive, 50/1 Sposalizio, 66/1 Highland Cathedral.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little or no strength in depth here and it will be disappointing if dual bumper winner MAWSEMcannot do the business. Final Flyer was beaten in a seller latest but may still represent his toughest opponent. [Dave Orton]

Big price gapper here in this maiden hurdle. HAs had 4 previous runs over hurdles.

640 WArWICK

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Night Angel, 7/2 Lana, 9/2 Stepper Point, 20/1 Pressure Drop, 25/1 Lucifers Shadow, 33/1Alnair, 33/1 Especially Red.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Stepper Point has ability and will improve when the penny drops but NIGHT ANGELunquestionably sets the standard on form.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

Now 7 runners and still 2 clear outsiders makes this a 5 horse race for 3 places.

Dolgopolov and Murray matches are scheduled for today. Murray has edged up to 1.3.

SHORTLIST

1159pm - Guatemala v Grenada - 1.22 home - the collateral form makes for a compelling argument to back Guatemala here against Grenada side who have conceded 11 in 2 matches and scored 1.

300 SEDGEFIELD- Mawsem is extremely popular in the market. 1.1 to place and the next best is at evens. A clear round of jumping required

640 WARWICK - looks another of those 7 runner races for 3 places, with 2 clear outsiders and a strong favourite who has remained.. An ideal opportunity for Night Angel to place perhaps given the greater probability to do so? As this race is off at 640pm, the market is illiquid.

AEGON CHAMPIONSHIPS THE FINAL 1230pm TSONGA V MURRAY - Andy Murray now 1.3 to win and is 4/5 against Tsonga, and has won his last 4 sets against Tsonga 6-2. Queens club so "playing at home". Finals are not always clear cut and the momentum of the win against Roddick might have ended after yesterday's rain delay.

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NB Please note that these email advices are duplicated via the blog at the following address.
http://www.cliveoneaday.com

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Please note there is no guarantee that these selections will win. Gambling is high risk and Canonbury Publishing Ltd and it's writers and editors cannot be held accountable for any monetary losses incurred. Please note that any bets you place are at your own risk.

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