Tuesday 31 May 2011

31/5

So, faith in Murray the that ankle after a night off? If so, then 1.37 is a nice price for world number 4 winning the last 2 sets. Alternatively, Turkey under 19 are 1.16 with ladbrokes and are 1.24 with Betfair. Take advantage of the Betfair price as the bookies expect an easier ride for Turkey's nippers.
jack's Revenge has all sorts of contraptions on which admittedly did the trick last time. 5/4 - - - 6/1 and the best price gapper of the day.

Decisions , decisions , decisions.

*****ONE A DAY - FRENCH OPEN 2pm- MURRAY V TROIKI - Back Murray in the match odds at 1.37****** The hope here is that the momentum of the last 2 sets ( won 12 games, conceded 5) comes to play after a day of rest . World Number 4 back on track and posting set results that we would have expected. The rest will hopefully help the ankle.


Derry won as they liked and were safer than another day of jumps after the last fence exit of Fashionable Gal when all out the winner. I needn't have worried as Executive's Hall won, and The Strawberry One and There and Then both placed.

3pm - Germany U19 v Hungary U19 - 1.23 home

HEAD TO HEADS

20.07.2008U19Hungary U191-2Germany U19
14.05.2007U19Hungary U190-0Germany U19

No recent head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION - not relevant.

HOME TEAM - GERMANY U 19

RECENT HOME FORM - LLWWWWDDLW - only 1 win in last 4.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLLWWWWDDWLW -recent loss was against Belgium, 2-1 when Germans scored first.

GOAL TRENDS - no general stats available but 10 of last 12 matches at home have been over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 3 without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - HUNGARY

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLDLDWW - Both wins recently against the Finland u19. Some of these matches from 2009 and none from 2010

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLWLLWWLDWW - only one draw in last 12

GOAL TRENDS - 3 of the last 4 away matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 3 without a loss away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no real collateral form makes this a difficult match to decipher. Has a chance of over 2,5 goals based solely on very recent matches.



HEAD TO HEADS - none

LEAGUE POSITION - irrelevant

HOME TEAM -TURKEY

RECENT HOME FORM- WWDWLWWLWLWD - recent losses at home to Italy, Poland and Spain

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWLWWLDWWLWD - in these matches, Turkey have played Poland in consecutive games, and Montenegro latest in consecutive games.

GOAL TRENDS - 10 of the last 12 matches overall have been over 2.5 goals -the others featured 2 goals each. 9/12 at home over 2.5 goals including last 5.

STREAKS - 2 at home without a loss

AWAY TEAM - MACEDONIA

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLDLLL - recent win against Czechs and draw against Bosnia

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLDLLDLLWDLL - recent win at home 4-0 v Romania.

GOAL TRENDS - consistent concession rate - 2,3,3,3,5,3,0,3,1,2,3,3 away and a 1.25 shot should be able to replicate that

STREAKS - 5 away without a win, 3 away without a draw.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no collateral form so hard to gauge the strength of the teams Macedonia are losing to. consistently conceding 2,3 or more , and a 1.25 side at home could continue that?


TENNIS - 215pm -
Monfils v Federer - 1.16 Federer - Fed could be worth laying initially as Monfils is a French player at the French Open.
2pm -

A Murray v Troicki - 1.37 Murray - this was a superb enhanced bet with Murray losing the first 2 sets. Yes

is injured hence the quite generous odds for someone in the top 5. One set match now and Murray has won 6-3, 6-2 last 2 sets. Surely momentum is with him

535 BALLINROBE

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Sublime Talent, 11/4 Laganbank, 9/2 Fairwood Massini, 10/1 Groody Hill, 10/1 Mr Shahady, 12/1 Nomansland, 20/1 Dabeina, 20/1 Knockshe Heather, 20/1 Micks, 25/1 Asymmetrical, 25/1 Cloghogue Lass, 25/1 Glass Lough, 25/1 Johnnycarpethead, 33/1 Cinderella Story, 33/1 Sulki Rose.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SUBLIME TALENT (nap) was clear of the remainder when third behind two useful sorts at Fairyhouse in January and a reproduction of that form should be good enough on this more suitable ground. Laganbank andFairwood Massini look next best. [Alan Hewison]

Weld on the flat is dominant, and here he is with the fav in a maiden hurdle. Paul Carberry onboard.

840 BALLINROBE

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Robin Angevin, 6/1 Kasszec, 7/1 Nashville Swing, 10/1 Fabius Maximus, 12/1 Roxborough, 12/1 Subtle Leader, 16/1 Oscar Wings, 16/1 The Parish Padre, 20/1 Sids Choice, 25/1 Daunting Task, 25/1 Farganstown Lad, 25/1 Old Supporter, 33/1 Temple Castle.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ROBIN ANGEVIN, by the standards of his yard's bumper horses, would need to be no star to win this on debut. Those with form seem moderate in the main. [Johnny Ward]

Price gapper but debutant in a late night irish bumper where the market is king.

345 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Jack´s Revenge, 9/2 Lady Barastar, 6/1 Iron Green, 12/1 Divine Rule, 12/1 Hello Tomorrow, 14/1 Gud Day, 16/1 Disturbia, 16/1 Emmeline Pankhurst, 25/1 Comrade Bond, 40/1 Tegan, 50/1 Caledonia Prince.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Jack's Revenge scored by 15l last week and has to be the one to beat under his penalty but there might be some value in opposing him on this slower ground with LADY BARASTAR who looks sure to improve for this step up in trip. Iron Green is the other one with strrong claims to be in the money, but three of the others are making their handicap debuts.[Richard Austen]

Class 6 0-65 handicap price gapper now 11/10 - - - -- 6/1 currently in the betting.15 length winner last time and up 5 lbs here.

550 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mabroor, 2/1 Wise Venture, 4/1 Monnoyer, 5/1 Red Hearts, 25/1 Singspiel Spirit, 50/1 Fen Flyer, 50/1 Selbaar.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Monnoyer and Red Hearts will be no pushover but they face two unbeaten colts who are likely to be plying their trade at a higher level in the coming months in the shape of MABROOR and Wise Venture, both of whom made a winning debut in races which are working out well.[Frank Carter]

Mabroor represents Mark Johnston and I always like these when they are market leaders. This should be a 4 horse race ( 4 under 14/1) for 2 places so effectively a 50/50 chance of placing.

655 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Whey Sauce, 5/1 Albaasil, 6/1 Burj Hatta, 6/1 Polperro, 10/1 Patriotic, 14/1 Myboyalfie, 16/1Height Of Summer, 16/1 Jumeira Field, 20/1 Makheelah, 25/1 Fluctuation, 25/1 Media Hype, 25/1 Norcroft Jem, 66/1 Centre Stage, 66/1 Handel´s Messiah.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Whey Sauce is having her first run in maiden company and if she can reproduce her Musidora performance, she would have to go close. ALBAASIL could be the type to improve considerably this summer though and he is taken to make a winning return to action.[Paul Smith]

Yes, it's off at 655 so ideally need to see the market around then but 4 under 20/1 currently and 3 are around 3/1. The mover is burj Hatta.

900 YARMOUTH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Shouda, 4/1 Cane Cat, 5/1 Spirit Of Love, 8/1 Moment Of Clarity, 10/1 Tt´s Dream, 12/1Chantilly Dancer, 12/1 Escardo, 16/1 Art Scholar, 33/1 Cragganmore Creek, 66/1 Carlcol Girl, 66/1 Lady Freda.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SHOUDA has shown enough promise to think he could win races and he has been found a very ordinary contest here. The hat-trick chasing Cane Cat could prove the main danger.[Paul Smith]

Curley favourite here so market important.


SHORTLIST

6pm - Turkey U19 v FYR Macedonia U19 - 1.25 home - my hope for Turkey will hinge on whether Macedonia can continue their woeful recent concession rate, 2s and 3s abound.

FRENCH OPEN - 2pm - A Murray v Troicki - 1.37 Murray - Momentum is surely with Murray now he has won the

last 2 sets 6-3 and 6-2 He has had a night to rest and get treatment for the ankle injury. Troiki looks like

a rabbit in the spotlight now

840 BALLINROBE - Mullins and Katie Walsh on Robin Angevin worth a speculative punt ( and it is speculative

as we have to wait nearer the off, in an irish bumper where the betting market will tell all.

345 LEICESTER - Jack's Revenge is 5/4 - - - - 6/1 price gapper and expected to replicate performance

of last time out - 1.3 to place.

550 YARMOUTH - probability race with 4 under 25/1 and 3 under 11/1 - trust the market leader here Mabroor?


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

FRENCH OPEN - 2pm - A Murray v Troicki - 1.37 Murray - which Murray turns up today? The rest period has quashed the

momentum Murray had but if the night's rest cures the ankle, then this is his match at good odds.

6pm - Turkey U19 v FYR Macedonia U19 - 1.25 home - in such a poor day we may have to venture to these under 19's - always a slight risk as there is no collateral form.

345 LEICESTER - Jack's REvenge is the best price gapper of the day. Concerns? Class 6 0-65 - poor animals. Also we have a claimer on today who negates some of the rise in the handicap. Illiquid betting market at present.Around 1.3 to place.





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