Saturday, 21 May 2011

21/5

*****ONE A DAY - 345 CURRAGH - DUBAWI GOLD TO PLACE ONLY***** - I hope this race is dominated by the 4 runners under 20/1 and Dubawi Gold performs again. In his last race,. his jockey thought
"he would have won easily without Frankel in the field, and he will go to the Curragh for the Irish Guineas."



Peintre D'argent placed and at a nice 1.35 SP.

2pm - Arsenal (W) v Bristol Academy (W) - 1.3 - can't be any worse than the men surely! No research details on this one so only for those in the know who follow ladies football.
3pm - Motherwell v Celtic - 1.36 away - Scottish Cup so take note but historically Celtic have the upper hand over Motherwell. The Motherwell 2-0 win recently was anomolous as CEltic simply did not turn up. Celtic are likely to win this Scottish FA Cup match/.

4pm - Akademik Sofia v Levski Sofia - 1.14 away - the Bulgarians served me well earlier in the week.
HEAD TO HEADS
Hardly compelling.

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 15th or 2nd v 2nd from bottom. As I wrote earlier in the week, the top 3 are dominant in this league.

HOME TEAM AKADEMIK

RECENT HOME FORM - DDLWLLL - recent win was 1-0 against 11th. Lost against 6th, 7th and 1st recently, conceding 2,3,3.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLLWLLLLLL - really poor overall too and that 1.14 looks justified.

GOAL TRENDS - average 0.79 scored at home and 1.5 away.

STREAKS - 6 lost in a row,. 11 games without a draw, 3 defeats on the trot at home, 5 without a draw at home,.

AWAY TEAM - LEVSKI

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWDWWW - last 3 wins have been 3-2 - last match was 3-1 until a 94th minute 2nd goal for opponents. Previous 2 3-2 wins saw Levski concede a penalty in each match,.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDWWWWWWW - can't get much better than that and a stark contrast with home side.

GOAL TRENDS - average 2 goals scored away, and 1.14 conceded - looks a natural for over 2.5 goals ( well the 1.14 should mean over 3.5, 4.5 goals is a goer) Only 2 losses away.

STREAKS - 7 match winning streak, 10 without defeat - 3 match winning streak away,. 5 away without a loss,.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - odds look right. Top 3 dominate in Bulgaria. 3-2's for Levski last 3 matches. Don't think they will concede 2 again but they should score 3 or 4.


5pm - Malaga v Barcelona - 2.48 away -=I thought I would never see Barca at this price domestically - I guess it may have something to do with winning the title already and probably playing the under 12 reserves this evening with the Champions League looming. Consider Barca were 1.09 against this lot earlier in the season.
7pm -Real Madrid v Almeria - 1.13 home - no point researching this one as it is meaningless for both sides. REal cannot win the league and Almeria will remain 20th ( bottom). REal's last match of the season and a goal fest expected. REsearch irrelevant - you either have faith in the odds or you dont. If the former, then this should be over 3.5 goals territory.
745pm - Sligo Rovers v Galway Utd - 1.26 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Sligo have not been beaten in head to heads

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 9th and a 10 team league is a difficult league to research

HOME TEAM - sligo

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWLWW - no draw yet but earlyish in the league season. Beaten 7th and 10th 3-1 and 2-0,.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLDWWWDLLWLWW - 2 of the defeats were against Shamrock Rovers 1-0 home and away/ -have scored 3 in 3 of their last 4 matches - the exception was a 1-0 defeat to Shamrock Rovers.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 over 2.5 goals - 50% clean sheets at home. 5 of the last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Have scored in 9 of last 10 matches,.

STREAKS - 2 match home winning streak. 6 without a draw at home. 6 overall without a draw,.

AWAY TEAM - GALWAY

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLL - win against Bohs and draw against bottom side Drogs Have conceded 2,.5,3 in their last 3 matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDWLDLLLLLLL - dire season for Galway,.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 over 2.5 goals away from home. Have failed to score in 33% of away matches. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in last 9. and failed to score in last 3 and in 5 of the last 6.

STREAKS - 3 match losing streak away - no win in 4 away. 7 match losing streak overall. No win in 9 overall. No draw in 7 overall. No goal scored in 3 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - GAlway are in dissaray, and Irish football is a betting minefield. IF I trust it then Sligo to win to nil?











8pm Lyon v Caen - 1.36 home - at this stage in the season,. you need motivation in order to justify spending valuable time researching and I suppose the threat of being overtaken for 3rd place is motivation for Lyon , who could take 2nd place if they win their 2 remaining matches and Marseille lose theirs.

HEAD TO HEADS

inconclusive head to heads

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 14th

HOME TEAM - Lyon

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWDWDWWDWWW - no defeat in 14 at home. Have beaten teams around Caen in the league - 2-1,. 1-0, 1-0

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDWLWLWLD - inconsistent recently overall,. and as you can guess away from home is where the problems occur.

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 over 2.5 goals at home makes a goals bet a little difficult. HAve kept a clean sheet in 50% of home matches - 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals - the alternative was a 1-1 - have scored bucket loads at home 3,0,4,5,1,3,3,3 - very good.

STREAKS - have conceded in last 6.

AWAY TEAM - Caen

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWLWDLLLWD - beat Marseille 1-2 away but that was 1st match of the season and very anomolous,. Lost 3-1 away to 1st placed Lille,. 2-1 to 4th, drew 1-1 with 5th and lost 3-2 to 6th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWLLLDWDDW - 3 draws were 1-1's

GOAL TRENDS - 56% over 2.5 goals away from home. 4 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals ( thanks to 3 1-1's) Have scored in last 10,.

STREAKS - 2 away without defeat - 5 overall without defeat -

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - not a match I am comfortable with .Lyon have recently scored loads at home and maybe that is an angle in. Caen just are a bad team to research and I cannot dismiss them wholeheartedly.

225 CHESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Question Times, 11/2 King Ferdinand, 11/2 Muffraaj, 8/1 Bertiewhittle, 50/1 Anathena, 66/1Crabbies Ginger, 100/1 Bygones For Coins.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from QUESTION TIMES whose form in a Listed race over this trip at Newmarket on her final start last year is some way in advance of what these rivals have achieved. However, even if that was a fluke, she'd have solid claims on what she'd previously achieved in maidens over further and she's taken to beat King Ferdinand.[Richard Young]


Big price gapper here but a 204 day absence to overcome,. Now 7 runners and only 4 under 50/1

325 CHESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Tortoni, 4/1 Moonville, 12/1 Adranian, 14/1 Monumental Man, 25/1 Echoes Of Joy, 50/1 Bajan Hero, 66/1 Silvas Romana, 100/1 Foolscap.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a bright opportunity for TORTONI to fulfil York debut promise with his apparent main rival drawn on the outside.[Frank Carter]


Another maiden sees 2 under 10/1 -can we trust a 1 time out maiden? Has a good draw which is a good thing for Chester,.

240 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Power, 9/4 Fire Lily, 5/1 Tough As Nails, 12/1 Signifer, 14/1 Muckle Bahoochie, 16/1 An Ghalanta, 16/1Gold Lace, 25/1 Danziger, 100/1 Hexagonal.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A cracking race, with Power bidding to enhance his handler's superb record, though the owners might have an equally strong candidate in Fire Lily. However, preference is for TOUGH AS NAILS, who really impressed at Tipperary last time and might offer that bit more value at the likely odds. [Johnny Ward]

3 under 12/1 and O'Brien 's Power to place at least?

345 CURRAGH

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Dubawi Gold, 5/2 Dunboyne Express, 100/30 Roderic O´connor, 11/2 Zabarajad, 16/1 Slim Shadey, 25/1 High Ruler, 25/1 Oracle, 150/1 Foolproof.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An underwhelming renewal. Though the temptation is to downplay what he achieved at Newmarket,DUBAWI GOLD (nap) still made light work of everything bar Frankel and one wonders would any of these rivals have been able to do what he did then, with Roderic O'Connor floundering in rear. Dunboyne Express has the potential to go close andZabarajad has an each-way chance, but the supplemented British raider can give Richard Hannon back-to-back wins. [Johnny Ward]

Near perfect place only race. 8 horses,. 3 places and 4 under 25/1,.

350 GOODWOOD

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Trumpet Major, 6/1 Hamis Al Bin, 10/1 Right To Dream, 14/1 Bronze Angel, 14/1 Macdonald Mor, 14/1 Radiomarelli, 20/1 Maroosh, 25/1 Orders From Rome, 40/1 Melting Pot, 100/1 Fresteem.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TRUMPET MAJOR took time to get going at Newbury but should know more this time and a maiden such as this should be well within reach. Ewell Place has course experience and is likely to be involved again.[Frank Carter]

4/7 - - - - -7/1 price gapper here albeit a maiden with a sole run,. but money has arrived for him.

740 NEWBURY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Foxtrot Hotel, 5/1 Choose The Moment, 10/1 Art Thief, 10/1 Ippios, 14/1 Fire In Babylon, 20/1Canashito, 33/1 Ollywood, 66/1 Mistress Quick.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unless there's any significant money for Fire In Babylon or Ippios it's hard to get away from FOXTROT HOTEL, who showed more than enough on his debut to suggest he'll be hard to beat in a race of this nature. [Richard Young]

Another price gapper but yet another maiden race,. 1/3 - - - 8/1 now


SHORTLIST

3pm - Motherwell v Celtic - 1.36 away - spanked Motherwell 4-0 last time out - repeat the dose in this Scottish CUp match?

4pm - Akademik Sofia v Levski Sofia - 1.14 away - illiquid market but this looks a stark contrast between home and away and over 3,.5 goals perhaps given it is under 1,.2

7pm -Real Madrid v Almeria - 1.13 home -no research to do - dead rubber but last home match of the current season and perhaps the last show from Ronaldo in a Real Madrid shirt,. Faith in the odds? Faith in goalscoring in this final match against a team who are down

225 CHESTER - good probability race now there are 7 runners and 4 under 50/1 1.13 Question Times . King Ferdinand is 1,.31 and value with still 3 places

345 CURRAGH - 8 runners,. 3 places and 4 under 22/1 - 1,.34 Dubawi Gold to place looks great value if this is confined to the 4 horses under 20/1 - as it is such a high class race , none can realistically be dismissed,.

740 NEWBURY - Foxtrot Hotel is 1/3 already and this race does not go off til 740pm!







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