Thursday 19 May 2011

19/5

*****ONE A DAY - 1230pm - Hougang v Tampines Rovers - back Tampine Rovers at prices down to 1.25 where there is around £2000 waiting. You can hold out for 1.3 by placing a bet at 1.3 using Betfair's KEEP BETS facility and this bet will be triggered in the odds for Tampines Rovers hits 1.3 in running.******

Alternatively, the major online bookmakers are offering odds - 1.33 is readily available at ladbrokes for instance. Try to place your bet as near to 1230pm as possible. Tampines have scored 3,3,3,3,5 against Hougang in their last 5 matches and 3 twice in the last 2 away against Hougang


I wish I opted for Porto last night. They always do what is necessary and 1-0 was the perfect scoreline.

1230pm - Hougang v Tampines Rovers - 1.34 away

HEAD TO HEADS

22.02.2011D1Tampines Rovers5-2Hougang United
23.10.2010D1Sengkang Punggol1-3Tampines Rovers
08.07.2010D1Tampines Rovers3-0Sengkang Punggol
28.04.2010D1Sengkang Punggol0-3Tampines Rovers
11.09.2009D1Tampines Rovers3-1Sengkang Punggol
25.06.2009D1Sengkang Punggol1-1Tampines Rovers

Hougang must have changed their name - I thought " there's only one Sengkang Punggol" was quite catchy. I think, as there are so many recent encounters, we should look at home head to heads for Hougang.

23.10.2010D1Sengkang Punggol1-3Tampines Rovers
28.04.2010D1Sengkang Punggol0-3Tampines Rovers
25.06.2009D1Sengkang Punggol1-1Tampines Rovers

The last 2 scorelines are very much in keeping with a 1.34 shot away from home

LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 1st

HOME TEAM - HOUGANG

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWDLW - scorelines since return from the break to a new season in 14th Feb 2011. 3 wins have all been 1-0's against 5th, 10th and 12th ( in a league of 12) so not overtly impressive beating bottom side ( who normally get spanked) 1-0.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWLDWLWWWL - 4 wins in 6 - should we be concerned? Well they were against 5th, 11th and 12th ( of 12) so perhaps we should not get carried away. Recent losses v 2nd and 4th augurs well against Tampines.

GOAL TRENDS - score 1, concede 1.5 on average at home in the 6 matches they have played at home.

STREAKS - 6 games without a draw and no other standout stats at home.

AWAY TEAM - TAMPINES ROVERS

RECENT AWAY FORM - DWWWWW - good stuff away from home.Recent win was against 9th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWWWWWDW - last draw was against 6th placed, but Tampines are not losing recently home or away.

GOAL TRENDS - 1.67 goals scored on average and 0.5 goals conceded on average away. 6 away matches and 3 clean sheets.

STREAKS - 2 away without a draw. 5 league wins on the trot away. THe streaks at Futbol24.com focus on all matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the recent winning form of Hougang should be put into context, they were against the bottom 2 most recently and I expect Hougang to have trouble against the top side as they have done against 2nd and 4th who they lost to recently.

HEAD TO HEADS

27.02.2011D1Geylang United2-0Singapore Armed Forces
20.07.2010D1Singapore Armed Forces0-2Geylang United
01.06.2010D1Geylang United0-3Singapore Armed Forces
03.02.2010D1Singapore Armed Forces1-1Geylang United
07.01.2010CFSingapore Armed Forces5-1Geylang United
09.09.2009D1Singapore Armed Forces4-1Geylang United

Geylang have won the last 2 meetings so I think I will leave that here. And they drew 2-2 last match when I think they were 1.14 shots to win. SAF are not backable for me.




3pm - Netherlands U19 v Israel U19 - 1.35 home - this is a Euro Qualifier so is worth investigating and if the nippers are mini me's of the First Team, then the Dutch should be backed.Dutch have drawn only 1 in their last 12 matches and that draw was nearly not a draw as it took a 91st minute equaliser.THere is no real collateral form to work with either as both sides have played different international sides.
Only 1 loss at home in last 12 for Dutch was a 1-0 loss to Austria.
3 wins in last 4 away for Israel but the question is regarding the calibre of the opposition relative to the Dutch ( Lithuania, Hungary and Blearus)


430pm - HJK Helsinki v Jaro - 1.43 home - season is young in Finland. Helsinki are LWWW in their 4 matches so far ( 2 wins at home).
Jaro LLWD for Jaro, so inconclusive and the Rosenborg shock loss 1-0 recently tells us that we cannot really make strong judgements until the season has a few matches under its belt.


745pm -Peterborough v MK Dons - 1.88 home - to add to another difficult day football wise, these are the play offs and are like a Cup Final. Tough to research.

435 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Midsummer Sun, 6/1 Tafaneen, 8/1 Golden City, 8/1 Rishikesh, 10/1 Al Khawaneej, 12/1Lady Amakhala, 12/1 Madrasa, 20/1 Sciampin, 25/1 Star Alliance, 66/1 Amtired, 66/1 Leah´s Angel.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Although not living up to expectations in a hot Newmarket contest on debut, MIDSUMMER SUNlooks sure to have improved for the experience and the extra 2f isn't going to harm him in what looks a very winnable maiden.Tafaneen should leave her debut effort behind now upped in trip, with Golden City being another likely improver.[Mark Brown]

A very eyecatching price gap here for Midsummer Sun. Now 1/2 in places and really walloped in. Rishikesh is the mover of interest and one of only 3 under 16/1.

5th of 7 on debut and very green indeed is not the form of a 1/2 shot, although there are clues as to some ability if he is being touted as a Derby horse possible.

505 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Solar Sky, 5/1 Sunday Bess, 8/1 Nuzool, 10/1 Indochina, 12/1 Redhotdoc, 14/1 Lidar, 33/1Aeneid, 33/1 Neptune Equester, 50/1 Ahwaak, 66/1 Bigern, 66/1 Khalashan.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: As in the first division, Henry Cecil appears to hold all the aces, with SOLAR SKY fully expected to build on his promising debut and take this en route to bigger things. Sunday Bess is the obvious danger.[Mark Brown]

Another price gapper, another one time outer, in another maiden. 2nd in a 14 runner class 4 maiden on debut

"Solar Sky, a half-brother to several winners, including Oaks winner Love Divine, put up a most eyecatching performance from off the pace after being held up and running a bit green. A similar contest looks a formality."


550 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Nayarra, 5/2 Huma Bird, 12/1 Charlotte Rosina, 14/1 Sweet Ovation, 33/1 Finalist, 33/1Princess Palmer, 50/1 Leading Star.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mick Channon has his 2yos in fine form and NAYARRA, who came across a useful sort when second on her debut at Warwick, is likely to be a tough nut to crack. Huma Bird looks the most interesting newcomer.[Adrian Cook]

7 runners and 2 places and Nayarra " likely to be a tough nut to crack"

5 newcomers though and Nayarra has only had one run ( as is the theme today)

805 SANDOWN

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Tanfeeth, 7/2 Tin Pan Alley, 7/1 Monopolize, 10/1 Almagest, 12/1 Tanassuq, 16/1 Elfaaten, 16/1 Native Colony, 20/1 Bright Abbey, 20/1 Brunello, 50/1 Boston Court, 100/1 Dare To Bare, 100/1 Milton Hill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hamdan Al-Maktoum is triply represented here and his TANFEETH sets a clear standard on his latest second at Chester. The market should help sift out the newcomers and once-raced sorts, the most interesting of them Tin Pan Alley and the Abdulla pair Almagest and Monopolize.[Adrian Cook]

another maiden in a difficult day and Tanfeeth is the price gapper ( more so in the live market at 4/6 - - - -5/1 and one of 5 under 20/1 so probability wise has a great chance if there are no proverbial dark horses amongst the 5 newcomers and 2 one time outers open to progression.


315 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 La Estrella, 2/1 Cobo Bay, 10/1 Crystal Celebre, 16/1 Dunaskin, 33/1 Paint The Town Red, 100/1 Host The Band.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LA ESTRELLA has a flawless record at this track and he should be able to deal with these inferior rivals now back in claiming company.[Paul Smith]

3/10 La Estrella now and Cobo Bay 4/1 are the only 2 under 14/1

750 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Bingo Lady, 6/1 Our Ned, 13/2 Dontbecodnme, 7/1 Roseini, 10/1 Missvoque, 10/1 Tisonlyme, 12/1 Coffey´s Pub, 12/1 Milanabbey, 12/1 Saddlenomore, 12/1 Sligo Publican, 14/1 Ennisnag, 14/1 Sonata D´amour, 16/1Morgana Le Fay, 16/1 She´s Got Grit, 16/1 Sweet Maria, 20/1 Dear Bach, 20/1 Maxwells Demon, 20/1 Rose Ellie, 25/1 Echo Lodge.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Problems with her jumping meant that it was a while before BINGO LADY was rewarded for her ability. She looks a solid bet here after finishing second at Cork in her first bumper. Once-raced pointing winners Our Ned andDontbecodnme possibly rate the main dangers. [Alan Sweetman]

"a solid bet" in a 19 runner Irish Bumper at 750 in the evening. Hmmmm!

820 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Make It Better, 9/2 Merchant Royal, 8/1 Autumn Day, 8/1 Nevada Knight, 10/1Unanswered, 12/1 Chrisdonlady, 16/1 Cadilac Jack, 20/1 He´s A Magpie, 20/1 Magical Mother, 25/1 Bahamian Reward, 25/1Blakesbrook, 25/1 Howryagettinon.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MAKE IT BETTER(nap) can maintain her winning sequence here, possibly at the main expense of Nevada Knight and Merchant Royal. [Alan Sweetman]

4 race winning streak and Make it better is one of 2 currently under 10/1 and is odds on currently in this hunter chase.

850 TIPPERARY

BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Golden Call, 9/2 Clondaw Warrior, 11/2 Intentandpurposes, 7/1 Honours Rule, 8/1Anserdefone, 12/1 Kansascity Shuffle, 14/1 Deploy Magic, 16/1 Thawmetoesout, 25/1 A Drop Of Bubbly, 33/1 Fresh´s Fever.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The only dual points winner in the field and representing a powerful trainer/jockey combinationGOLDEN CALL is hard to resist. Main dangers look to be Clondaw Warrior and Intentandpurposes the latter of whom is the only runner with racecourse experience. [Alan Hewison]

I would have to agree here - Gordon elliott and Nina Carberry look a powerful combo for Golden call.

No obstacles bar this being a bumper at 850 pm ( and in bumpers we ideally want to see the market)

340 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Chicklemix, 7/2 Milano Supremo, 7/1 Sharadiyn, 16/1 Old Style, 66/1 Exit To Freedom, 66/1Long Range.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Milano Supreme ran quite well here last time and is open to improvement but CHICKLEMIXlooks the one to beat despite carrying a penalty for her recent Fakenham win.[Chris Wilson]

3 under 14/1 for 2 places

SHORTLIST

1230pm - Hougang v Tampines Rovers - 1.34 away - Hougang have won 3 recently but 2 of those were against the bottom 2 sides. In a league of only 12, there is a concern that surprise results such as 1.14 SAF going 2-1 down and drawing last match could occur through overfamiliarisation. Tampines scored 3 on 2 separate occasions away to Hougang and are certainly priced to repeat the dose today. Tampines have scored 3,3,3,3,5 against Hougang or their apparent alter ego Senggang Punggol.

435 HAYDOCK - well 5th of 7 on debut does not make me want to run out and back Midsummer sun at 1.13 to place but there must be a reason for such a shortening in price.

505 HAYDOCK - Solar Sun looks a safer propsition but the current place only price is only 1.08

550 SANDOWN - 2 under 20/1 here in this 2 year old maiden -the market has not spoken for the 5 debutants and there are some 6+ hours fior the market to work but as things stand, faith in the betting and Nayaara to place at 1.13 or thereabouts.

805 SANDOWN - Tanfeeth looks primed to place - he could go handicapping now so keeping him in a maiden might be a tip in itself. Illiquid market as you would expect for a race at 805.

315 SOUTHWELl - La Estrella is 1.1 to place and should do so in a match up here and on her favoured Southwell surface.

850 TIPPERARY - Golden Call for GOrdon Elliott and Nina Carberry stands out


SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

1230pm - Hougang v Tampines Rovers - 1.34 away - Tampines in fine winning form and have not scored less than 3 in last 5 meetings, including 3 in last 2 aways - surely they can repeat the dose here? - A very illiquid market might temper enthusiasm.

505 HAYDOCK - Solar Sun looks solid but alas the market agrees and 1.08 to place - 1.25 to win might be worth chancing?

550 SANDOWN - Nayaara is one of 2 under 20/1 and faith in the market here? 1.13 to place.

850 TIPPERARY - Golden Call.










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