HEAD TO HEADS
| 13.11.2010 | |||||
| 14.03.2010 | |||||
| 22.08.2009 | |||||
| 31.05.2009 |
Nothing in the head to heads to suggest that Timi are 1.29 shots?
LEAGUE POSITION 2nd v 16th – this is why we look at league position. It may explain the price. Timi win today and they go 2 points ahead of leaders at the top. Unirea are 16th and a win keeps them in the bottom 3 but brings them closer to breaking the 30 point barrier.
HOME TEAM TIMI
TIMI RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWDDDDW – 2 2-2 draws sandwiched between 2 0-0’s –well they are unbeaten since the Winter Break.
TIMI RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWDDWDLDWWD – recent loss away to 4th in the league.
TIMI GOAL TRENDS - 5 clean sheets at home against 2 clean sheets away for Unirea
TIMI STREAKS
AWAY TEAM - UNIREA
UNIREA RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLLLLLLL – tells it all really and this is a match where recent form supercedes head to heads it would seem. 4,2,5,3,2,3, conceded in last 6 away matches.
UNIREA RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLDLLLLWLLLW – recent wins came home against 14th and 17th ( 2nd from bottom)
UNIREA GOAL TRENDS – 7 of last 8 matches overall over 2.5 goals. Have only scored 1 goal in the last 5 away matches. Average 0.4 scored and 2.27 conceded per away match.
STREAKS
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads not withstanding, Unirea are in deep doo doo. Quite obviously opposable based on Away form where they have lost consistently unirea have only scored 1 goal in the last 5 away matches. SLight concern with historical head to heads showing 0-0's,. 1.16 though, as you know, should signal an easy 3/4 goal win.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 19.12.2010 | |||||
| 17.01.2010 | |||||
| 23.08.2009 | |||||
| 05.04.2009 |
Like the Timisoara match, the head to heads do not portray a 1.29 shot.
LEAGUE POSITION – 7th v 13th – 2 teams safe from home. With 4th place on 62 points and Juve on 56, can they breach 4th place? A win today takes them to 56 points.
HOME TEAM- JUVE
JUVE RECENT HOME FORM – LWLWLLWWD – HAVE scored 2,3,2 in their last 3 home matches. Have lost at home against 14th and 15th, and Chievo are 13th.
JUVE RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWLLLDWWWDDW - no defeat in 7 matches now.
JUVE GOAL TRENDS - 71% over 2.5 goals at home is something to work with, although as was seen in the Fenerbahce match, it may be more about functionaility ( 1-0) than goals performance. 2 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Last 3 home matches over 2.5 goals. Home matches against 10th-14th inclusive have all been over 2.5 goals. 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches. Have scored in 6 of last 7 matches.
JUVE STREAKS - 3 at home without defeat - 7 overall without defeat.
AWAY TEAM – CHIEVO
CHIEVO RECENT AWAY FORM – LLDWDLLWLL – recent win came against bottom side Bari. . Of the top teams away from home, Chievo have only beaten Napoli and that was the 4th match of the season so is unrepresentative.They have lost the other 4 and drawn 1-1 against the top 6. Chievo have only won 4 away and 2 of those were against the bottom 2 sides.
CHIEVO RECENT OVERALL FORM – DLLLDLWDLWLW – recent wins against 15th and 17th.
CHIEVO GOAL TRENDS - 47% over 2.5 goals away from home. 8 of last 9 matches have been under 2.5 goals. Cheivo have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches.
CHIEVO STREAKS - Chievo score first in 22.9% of matches which hints perhaps that their opponents, with home advantage are most likely to score first?
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - a suspicion neither side will gain much, albeit Juve could find a top 6 berth by season end if they keep winning (does that mean European football?) Again, taking our cues directly from the stats and not from the fact we know what time of year it is and shocks may occur ( 3-1 Stoke anyone?), Chievo look readily opposable. They have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 matches, they score first in only 23% of matches. Chievo have won only 4 away and 2 of those were against bottom 2.Conflicting goals stats. 71% Juve at home but 8 of Chievo's last 9 matches have been under 2.5 goals.
3 clean sheets in last 5 for Juve meeting a team failing to score in 6 of last 8 suggests a speculative correct score bet to nil for Juve?
I am not convinced by any goals angles here given the MIXED goals MESSAGES.
8pm - Fulham v Liverpool.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 26.01.2011 | |||||
| 11.04.2010 | |||||
| 31.10.2009 | |||||
| 04.04.2009 |
Tight head to heads bar an anomalous 3-1 Fulham home win ( and Fulham are home today)
LEAGUE POSITION – a win takes Fulham 8th but of greater incentive arguably is a win taking Liverpool 5th – a top 5 finish after the season they have had is a superb achievement.
HOME TEAM – FULHAM
FULHAM RECENT HOME FORM – DLWWWDWWW – and have scored 3 in each of the last 3 wins. Surprisingly strong form coming into the end of the season.No wins though at home to top 7 sides, 2-2 draw Man United, 0-0 draw Chelsea, 1-4 loss Man City, 1-2 loss Spurs.
FULHAM RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDDDWLWLDWW – recent losses away at Everton and Man Utd.
FULHAM GOAL TRENDS – 53% over 2.5 goals at home. Have kept a clean sheet in 53% of home matches - over 1 in 2!! Last 2 matches over 2.5 goals. Last 3 home matches have seen Fulham score 3. 5 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Fulham have won 3-0 in last 2 matches. Have scored in 7 of last 8 matches.
FULHAM STREAKS – 3 match home winning streak – 7 matches without defeat at home. Have not conceded in last 2 home matches Have kept a clean sheet in 6 of last 7 home matches.
AWAY TEAM - LIVERPOOL
LIVERPOOL RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLWWLWLD – quite poor away form still under King Kenny.Liverpool have only won 4 away matches all season and 3 of them were in last 6 away matches!
LIVERPOOL RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWWDLWWLWDWW – both recent losses away to West Ham and West Brom.
LIVERPOOL GOAL TRENDS – Liverpool have scored in last 9 away matches , winning only 3 of them. 53% over 2.5 goals away from home. 6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Liverpool last did not score on 29th December 2010 and have only failed to score in 5 matches all season.
LIVERPOOL STREAKS – 2 away without a win.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – we must put this match into the context of the season and time of the year. Nothing hand on heart for both teams here, but I would suggest Liverpool would be incentivised the best to gain a top 5 finish. We must take note of Fulham winning 6 of their last 7 home matches but what to make of the fact they have not won at home to top 7 sides? Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 53% of home matches. Liverpool have only won 4 matches away all season, but they did not have Suarez and Carroll all season! A great stats is the fact that Liverpool have scored in last 9 away matches and in all matches since 29th December 2010. What chance they score today? Does this make Fulham a lay to start off with? ( be flexible if you watch and Fulham dominate to get out of said lay)
A toughie for me and if you compare it to other matches that have been, there have been far clearer trading matches than this one.
310 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Muhandis, 7/4 Emilio Largo, 9/2 Dililah, 16/1 Mokalif, 25/1 Brent Pelham, 40/1 Disturbia.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MUHANDIS was disappointing on his handicap debut last time but that race was won by a subsequent Group 3 winner and the pick of his form sets the standard returned to a less competitive level. That said, Emilio Largo is definitely a potential improver on his debut for Henry Cecil and it would be very significant if the market makes the right noises on his return from nearly a year off the track.[Steven Boow]
2 horses only under 10/1 and faith in the fav to place?
220 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Bannock, 6/1 Arcticality, 7/1 Made In The Shade, 9/1 Galilee Chapel, 12/1 Phoenix Clubs, 14/1 Neil´s Pride, 20/1 Musical Strike.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The betting may give an idea of the strength of the opposition but this looks an obvious opportunity for BANNOCK to step up on his debut second at Doncaster. Arcticality may prove the pick of the others.[Frank Carter]
7 runners and 2 places the only negative here. A big price gapper in this maiden representing the excellent Mark Johnston and Joe Fanning Combo that I love so much. Bannock is now 2/5 - 1.42 in the win market and 1.14 place market .
320 REDCAR
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Spinatrix, 15/8 Pantella, 3/1 Lady Kildare, 14/1 Gorgeous Goblin, 14/1 Noels Princess, 50/1Cool In The Shade, 50/1 Dorden, 50/1 Dream Dream Dream.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Spinatrix should be all the better for her reappearance run but the close proximity of Gorgeous Goblin does hold down that Doncaster form and preference is for PANTELLA, who should improve for today's longer trip. A bit of rain won't harm her cause.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]
3 horses under 14/1 in an ideal 8 runner and 3 place race. 3 dominate but tough to choose between them. Maiden fillies too can be unpredictable.
550 ROSCOMMON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Long Live The King, 6/1 Minsk, 7/1 Sam Bass, 7/1 Secretsubstitute, 7/1 Sportsmaster, 8/1Hired Hand, 10/1 Further Detail, 10/1 Teajaybe, 16/1 Florry Knox, 16/1 Highly Efficient, 20/1 Indian Landing, 25/1 Bo Hengy, 33/1 Hill Of Content, 50/1 Mac Tigue.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LONG LIVE THE KING is entitled to improve over this trip and can get off the mark for his in-form yard. This is a winnable maiden, with Sam Bass one of the main dangers. [Johnny Ward]
Price gapper for the Ballydoyle mob.
800 TOWCESTER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Coolefind, 11/8 Armoury House, 6/1 Fruitfull Citizen.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Armoury House recorded a fine win last time but, given his previous record, it may be dangerous to take the form literally. COOLEFIND is a prolific winner and can take this race for the second year running.[Chris Wilson]
3 horses and 2 places for this Hunters Chase - pure probability race and a clear round required.
740 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alkimos, 9/2 Moment Of Time, 5/1 Amoya, 10/1 Knightly Escapade, 14/1 Loyaliste, 16/1Cyber Star, 20/1 Glyn Ceiriog, 20/1 Sugar Hiccup, 25/1 Mina´s Boy, 33/1 I´m A Celebrity, 33/1 Toymaker, 50/1 Woop Woop.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The likes of Knightly Escapade and Moment Of Time are open to improvement butALKIMOS ran well in a better race at Newmarket on his debut and he looks the one to beat.[Emily Weber]
Price gapper in this 13 runner maiden - has only had the one run though and has Fallon onboard. 8/13 - - - -11/2 -a decent price gap in the live betting market.
230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Van Go Go, 100/30 Selinda, 6/1 She´s Cool Too, 12/1 Aquasulis, 16/1 Masivo Man, 40/1Early Ambition, 40/1 Foolscap, 40/1 Jettie.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: VAN GO GO is a bit better than the average early-season and has good prospects of notching a third win. Aquasulis failed to give her running last time but has decent place claims on her previous run.[Frank Carter]
8 runners and 3 places for this claimer for 2 year olds. Now 7 runners and 4 only under 20/1 -Van go go is 1.07 to place but She's Cool too might be worth a shot at 1.35 as she is currently 4/1 2nd fav.
SHORTLIST
4pm - FC Timisoara v Unirea Urziceni - 1.16 home - very illiquid betting market.
745pm - Juventus v Chievo - 1.29 home - dismiss the head to heads which are tight and do not show a 1.29 shot. Little motivation for Juve other than a Europa League place, but Chievo have not scored in 6 of last 8 and Juve scored 3,2,3 in their last 3 home matches.
220 REDCAR - only 2 places is a slight concern in this maiden but Bannock has shortened considerably and if 1.14 at the off, I will be interested. Slight risk with one time out 2 year olds as they are still learning, but Fanning takes over the reigns and that may be just the tonic.
800 TOWCESTER - Coolefind seems to be a safe enough conveyance and this is a superb probability race. Will he complete in this hunter chase ( winning and placed form suggests so) and will he be beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race?
Best to take Betfair SP
740 WINDSOR - Akimos looks a good thing here if the price gap is accurate. 8/13 - - - - - 5/1 and Fallon retains the ride. again there are risks attached with one time outers at such as short price.
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