HEAD TO HEADS
| 07.08.2010 | L1 | Southampton | 0-1 | Plymouth Argyle | |
| 26.12.2008 | LCh | Plymouth Argyle | 2-0 | Southampton | |
| 25.11.2008 | LCh | Southampton | 0-0 | Plymouth Argyle |
Only 1 head to heads of interest was an away win for Plymouth
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd from bottom v 2nd - another top v bottom affair Plymouth need to win their next 2 matches to have any chance of survival . A win today takes them onto 45 points, joint with 3rd bottom but inferior goal difference.
2 matches remaining for Saints and they cannot catch Brighton at the top. With far far superior goal difference to 3rd placed Huddersfield, and on the same points, Saints must win ( or match Hudds ) in their last 2 matches to get 2nd place. 2nd place is between Saints and Huddersfield.
HOME TEAM - PLYMOUTH
RECENT HOME FORM PLYMOUTH - DDLLLWWLWW - 12TH, BOTTOM, 20TH AND 5TH were the teams Plymouth beat at home recently - fighting tooth and nail for the wins and doing what is necessary at home.Against top 6 at home, lost 2-0 to Brighton, play Saints today, beat Huddersfield 2-1 (23rd October), lost 3-0 to Peterborough, beat Milton Keynes 1-0 ( recent), lost 2-1 to Bournemouth.
PLYMOUTH RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWWWLDLLWLWWL - 3 wins in last 5 ( 2 at home) and 2 recent losses by a single goal. Against top 6, no draw in 11 matches and given both sides must win, lay the draw today? We will be having both sides fighting hard for the win.
PLYMOUTH GOAL TRENDS - 48% over 2.5 goals at home. 9 of last 10 matches under 2.5 goals. last 3 matches have been 1-0s which signal Plymouth try to keep it tight. Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3. Have scored in 4 of last 5 and failed to score in last match. 5 of the 7 matches against top 4 sides home and away were over 2.5 goals with one other match 2-0 and the other 1-0.
PLYMOUTH STREAKS - no draw in 8 at home. Won last 2 at home. No draw home and away against top 6. No draw in 7 matches overall.
AWAY TEAM - SAINTS
SAINTS RECENT AWAY FORM - WDDLWWDWLWW - 3 wins in last 4 and 5 wins in last 7 perfect for the run in. SAints have beaten 21st Dagenham 3-1, beaten 22nd Bristol 4-0 and are playing 23rd today. But lost to bottom side Swindon away 1-0 as recently as 1st March.
SAINTS RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWWWDWWWLWWWW - loss against 9th placed Rochdale away ( Rochdale beat Saints at home too.
SAINTS GOAL TRENDS - like PSV, Saints have scored 55 in the 2nd half. all season.Saints have scored 2,3,3,2,1,3,2,2,0,1,2,2,3 - that is an average of exactly 2 per game in their last 13. 45% over 2.5 goals away. 2 of last 3 over 2.5 goals As you see, Saints have scored 2 a lot, and in 6 of last 13 matches, scorelines have been 2-0 so have not registered in the over 2.5 goals stats. 4 of these 6 2-0's would have definitely been successful over 2.5 goal trades as the 2nd goal was scored early enough. Saints have kept a clean sheet in an impressive 5 of their last 7 matches. SAints have scored in 12 of last 13 matches.
SAINTS STREAKS - 2 match winning streak away. Won last 4 matches. No draw in 8 matches. No defeat in 4. Have not conceded in last 2.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is a season defining match for both sides and with so much in stake I would equate this with a one off match where form may not be reflected in the outcome. So there may be a surprise result.
But, if we are judging this game on form, then laying the draw looks a goer here - no draw in 8 matches for Saints, Saints have kept a clean sheet in 5 of last 7 ( cover 0-0 if laying the draw?), no draw in 8 at home for Plymouth, no draw in 7 overall for Plymouth and no draw home and away against the top 6 ( 11 matches) . As this is a must win, laying the draw is logical.
To reiterate, though, anything could happen in a unique match given the circumstances of both sides.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 11.12.2010 | LCh | Middlesbrough | 1-0 | Cardiff City | |
| 06.03.2010 | LCh | Cardiff City | 1-0 | Middlesbrough | |
| 13.12.2009 | LCh | Middlesbrough | 0-1 | Cardiff City |
That's just great, Cardiff are saying . They need a win today and are playing a side where the tightness of the match is fully apparent .
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 16th and this is a great example of why I look at League Position. Cardiff must win to go 2nd -this is Cardiff's last home match this season. Boro are in mid table mediocrity and gain nothing and lose nothing.
HOME TEAM CARDIFF
CARDIFF
RECENT HOME FORM - WWDWDWLDWWD - recent draw 2-2 with QPR saw Cardiff 1-0 and 2-1 up. Only 3 losses at home against 4th, 6th and 12th.CARDIFF
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLLDDWWWWDW - no loss in 8 and 5wins in last 6. Last 3 draws 2-2, 3-3 and 2-2 and CArdiff led in each match.CARDIFF
GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs/unders. 6 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 4. Have scored 2,4,3,2 in last 4 home matches. Have scored in last 8 matches.STREAKS
CARDIFF - 4 without a defeat at home( 8 overall)
AWAY TEAM BORO
BORO RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWLDWDLW - inconsistent away - recent wins away against 3rd from bottom and 10th. Have lost all 5 away against top 6, and lo and behold the 1-0 loss appears in 2 matches ( remember head to head scorelines?)
BORO RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWDWDWDDLWW - huge amount of goals recently, 7,3,0,3,6,3,6,2,4,6,3 in Boro's matches in stark contrast with head to heads . None of those matches against top 6.
BORO GOAL TRENDS - 55% away so this match is up in the air as far as goals is concerned. BUT 12 of the last 15 matches have been over 2,5 goals. Boro have conceded in 15 of their last 16 matches. Boro have scored in 11 of last 12 matches .
BORO STREAKS - 2 away without a draw, 3 in total.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is a match where the home team must win and the away team must sort out their summer holiday arrangements. The 1-0 crops up a lot here and I would think about backing Cardiff and covering the 0-1 ( Boro lead) and 0-0 . This is an option as 0-0 is at 20 and 0-1 at 30. So if backing Cardiff in the match odds at 1.5 for £100, back 0-0 at 20 for £5.73 and 0-1 at 30 for £3.82. Surely though Cardiff have the requisite motivation and star quality ( old David Bellamy) to make this last home match count?
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Glor Na Mara, 11/4 Imperial Rome, 4/1 Alexander Pope, 7/1 Zabarajad, 8/1 Dubawi Star, 12/1 Oracle, 16/1 Peahen, 25/1 Foolproof.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IMPERIAL ROME is certainly going the right way and he is selected to take another step up the ladder in this. Glor Na Mara will need to bounce back to form on this more suitable ground if he is to belatedly justify his lofty reputation. [Kevin Blake]
This should concern the 5 under 16/1 for 3 places here and Imperial Rome has leapfrogged Glor Na Mara into favouratism.
320 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Look At Me, 5/2 Lolly For Dolly, 6/1 Duchess Of Foxland, 8/1 Seeharn, 10/1 Emiyna, 12/1Enchanted Evening, 16/1 Intapeace, 20/1 Headford View, 25/1 Claiomh Solais.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: LOOK AT ME has the potential to develop into a high-class filly and is selected to make a winning reappearance in this. Lolly For Dolly is likely to find this test to be on the sharp side, but she shouldnt be too far away nevertheless. [Kevin Blake]
Eminya is a very interesting market mover into 7/2 3rd favourite and Johnny Murtagh needs no introduction.
420 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/4 So You Think, 8/1 Termagant, 10/1 Bob Le Beau, 16/1 Mid Mon Lady, 20/1 Windsor Palace, 25/1 Cashelgar.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Even allowing for the fact that all of Ballydoyles other recent Australian imports have needed their first run in Europe, it will be a major surprise if the exciting SO YOU THINK doesnt make a winning start to what could be a lucrative campaign. If Termagant came back to her best, she would make him work for it. [Kevin Blake]
Aiden O'Brien fav 1/5 - - - -12/1 in the live betting and very obvious - 181 day absence and European debut.
210 DOWNROYAL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Doux Douce, 4/1 Golan Guy, 6/1 Dumitas, 8/1 Native Palm, 8/1 Table Forty Six, 12/1 Jacks Grey, 20/1 Captain Toby, 33/1 Brega Queen, 33/1 Cut Your Cloth, 33/1 Jessies Girl, 33/1 Misty Queen, 33/1 Oh So Gogo, 50/1 Buttonhole Rose, 50/1 Pink Goddess, 50/1 Quivvy Castle, 50/1 Spiker The Biker, 50/1 Wheatfield.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This maiden lacks strength in depth and Cork third DOUX DOUCE makes most appeal for the in-form Gordon Elliott yard over the 102-rated Golan Guy and Dumitas. [Brian Fleming]
5 under 14/1 and Doux Douce represents Gordon Elliot and has Nina Carberry onboard. A maiden hurdle though.
SHORTLIST
515pm - Cardiff v Middlesbrough - 1.5 home - consideration for the back of Cardiff and cover of 0-1 Boro and 0-0. Acknowledge that Boro games of late have been bursting with goals though, but none of recent opponents top 6 and this is a contrast of motivated v unmotivated.
250 CURRAGH - Imperial Rome is 1.27 to place in an 8 runner race for 3 places.
320 CURRAGH - Eminya is a big market mover here and around 1.67 to place.
420 CURRAGH - on a very difficult day, perhaps some solace in So you think 1.2 the win, 1.1 to place. 3rd in the Melbourne Cup in November 2010 , surely there is nothing to match him today?
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
What a difficult day's racing. Maidens, horses coming off layoffs, fields with big priced favs, maidens, tough handicaps - yes it's Bank Holiday Monday.
Of those above, only So you think appeals in the 420 Curragh. Elsewhere I think the Cardiff bet I have conjured up looks very strong indeed.
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