28/5

*****ONE A DAY - 605 CARTMEL - Rive D'estruval to place only***** - currently 1.17 -try to place bet nearer the off.

A very poor day - the claimer was interesting but the 4 horses all under 20/1 have terrible profiles. I hope Timmy Murphy can get Rive D'estruval into the places again. Clear round will suffice.

I picked Le Mans because of their recent clean sheets and the fact they had scored 3 and 4 at home recently. It was the latter factor than ensured victory yesterday as Nantes were 2-0 up in no time, but Le Mans scored the next 3 goals. Enhanced speculators could have backed Le Mans again when 2-0 down at a really juicy price as it was a must win for them.

3pm - Ajax Lasnamae v Flora Tallinn - 1.09 away

HEAD TO HEADS

26.04.2011	Cup	Flora Tallinn	6-0	Ajax Lasnamae
09.04.2011	D1	Flora Tallinn	6-0	Ajax Lasnamae
06.10.2007	D1	Flora Tallinn	10-0	Ajax Lasnamae
11.08.2007	D1	Ajax Lasnamae	0-4	Flora Tallinn
09.06.2007	D1	Flora Tallinn	11-0	Ajax Lasnamae

Most recent head to heads both 6-0 -any reason to desert that scoreline, apart from Flora playing away today.

LEAGUE POSITION - 10th, and bottom v 1st

No full analysis here as Ajax should lose without scoring, and have recently conceded 4,6,3,5,3,3 . Flora have won their last 4 league away matches, scoring 1,2,2,2 and conceding only 1. Sub 1.1 equals goals goals goals. 4-0, 5-0, 6-0 dutched could be within Flora's reach.

4pm - CSKA Sofia v Akademik Sofia - 1.34 home

HEAD TO HEADS

28.11.2010

D1

Akademik Sofia

1-1

CSKA Sofia

And akademik took the lead.

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 15th - last match of the Bulgarian season? If so then CSKA cannot catch the top 2 and a win for Akademik could see them out of the bottom 3 ( pending other results)

HOME TEAM - CSKA

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWWD - recent draw was 2-2 v 13th when CSKA were 2-1 up.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWWWWWDL - last loss was away 4-1 v 4th place.

AWAY TEAM - Akademik

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLWLLLLL - last loss was against the side CSKA drew 2-2 with at home. They beat Akademik 6-0, so some collateral form.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWLLLLLLL - win was a 1-0 v 11th

Not full research as not on soccerstats nor it seems do CSKA gain anything. Akademik have a chance to get out of the bottom 4 which makes them the motivated side against a 1.35 side.

4pm - Litex Lovech v Kaliakra - 1.13 home - title is Litex's is it not? This is their 30th game. 2nd team are on 72 points having already played their 30th game Litex are on 74 points and are playing their 30th game today. They have won the league then? Is this 1.13 therefore not layable? Litex have scored 4 in their last 3 home matches which may be a reason why they are so short in a game they need not win. Motivation? Last home match of the season as league champions.

4pm - Slavia Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia - 1.35 away - questionable motivation in this apparent dead rubber

430pm - Mlada Boleslav v Usti nad Labem - 1.34 home - last match of the Czech season and both gain and lose nothing here. Mlada favourites because Usti are bottom and have only 19 points all season.

430pm - Sparta Prague v Hradec Kralove - 1.32 home - if this is the last game of the season, Sparta are 2nd on 65 points. Leaders are on 69 points and 3rd on 55 points. So nothing to gain from this match.

745pm - Barcelona v Man Utd - Barca are drifting from 2.04 to now 2.14 and United were earlier about 4.2 and are now 3.55. It's a one off and I have no angle in whatsoever. Just enjoy it.

155 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 River Ardeche, 9/4 Folk Tune, 11/4 Visions Of Johanna, 6/1 Viewing, 20/1Binglybonglyboo, 33/1 Always Dixie, 33/1 Dimashq, 33/1 Reel Bluff.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Folk Tune could easily threaten to win his first Flat race for many moons but RIVER ARDECHEhas major claims on the pick of his handicap form from last year and he's never run that well after a break, so it's perhaps best not to read too much into his comeback defeat.[Alistair Whitehouse-Jones]

8 runners, 3 places and 4 under 20/1 - perfect place only race

515 CATTERICK

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Tilliemint, 5/2 Arrivaderci, 11/2 Stilettoesinthemud, 6/1 Miss Emily, 17/2 Midnight Dynamo, 10/1 Bon Appetit, 25/1 Bygones For Coins, 25/1 Let´s Face Facts, 50/1 Ellielusive, 50/1 Willbeme, 66/1 Chipofftheoldblock, 100/1 Areeg.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TILLIEMINT is 0-7 but she sets the standard on a number of frame efforts in 5f-6f maidens, and this 70-rated filly could be hard to beat if running near her best form. The main danger is Arrivaderci, who showed promise when second on her debut at Southwell and is open to improvement. [David Moon]

6 under 25/1 in the betting forecast, and 2 price gappers to 3rd horse.

605 CARTMEL

BETTING FORECAST: Evs Escudero, 6/4 Rival D´estruval, 8/1 Be My Deputy, 10/1 Wings Of Smoke, 25/1 Clogher Cailin, 33/1 Alpha Victor, 66/1 Baileys Benchmark, 100/1 The Dagda, 100/1 Youandme.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a match between RIVAL D'ESTRUVAL and Escudero and the 7lb weight difference sways things in favour of the former, who has shown enough over hurdles to suggest he's capable of winning a race of this nature.[Richard Young]

9 runners, 3 places and 4 under 25/1 in the betting forecast, with the above 2 named dominating the market.

335 HAYDOCK

BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Regal Parade, 4/1 Beacon Lodge, 7/1 High Standing, 7/1 The Cheka, 8/1 Shakespearean, 14/1 Inler, 14/1 Kakatosi, 20/1 Himalya, 25/1 Doncaster Rover.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for REGAL PARADE (nap) who is unpenalised for his Group 1 win at Deauville last August and ran a fine race when second to Delegator at York last time. Shakespearean, who also escapes a penalty for his win in the Hungerford last summer, could be dangerous if allowed to dominate, with Beacon Lodge and The Cheka looking best of the remainder.[Adrian Cook]

Regal Parade should place -17 day course and distance winner. 2nd last time out.

SHORTLIST

As you would expect on a Saturday , this looks to be bookie benefit day .

With the football, there are notable dead rubbers as the Bulgarian and Czech leagues end.

3pm - Ajax Lasnamae v Flora Tallinn - 1.09 away - a pity this is totally illiquid as I would have opted for over 2.5 goals here at a reasonable price.

155 CATTERICK - 8 runners and 3 places and 4 horses under 20/1 - if they dominate then surely the favourite has a good probability chance of placing - currently Visions of Johanna.

605 CARTMEL - Escudero and Rival D'estruval to dominate with the latter at 1.17 to place. as ever in these top heavy markets we have to assume that these 2 will dominate and both place.

335 HAYDOCK - Regal Parade was a superb 2nd to Delegator and the competitiveness of this high class race is shown by the 1.47 quote about him to place.

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