Wednesday 4 May 2011

4/5

Kauto star/nacarat and Celtic are the ones I would take out of today. Goodwood Starlight is a surprising 4/6 given the horse did not place last time out.
I am going to go with Celtic today. They have kept plenty of clean sheets of late and have scored 4 in 2 of their last 3 matches.

*****ONE A DAY - 6pm - Inverness CT v Celtic - back Celtic in the match odds at 1.27




SAborido placed easily, at around 1.13. A little more straightforward than Cardiff!


12pm - FC Seoul v Al Ain - 1.27 home
1230pm - Home United v Balestier Khalsa - 1.37 home

HEAD TO HEADS

15.02.2011

D1

Balestier Khalsa

1-1

Home United

07.10.2010

D1

Home United

0-0

Balestier Khalsa

01.07.2010

D1

Balestier Khalsa

0-1

Home United

14.04.2010

D1

Home United

2-2

Balestier Khalsa

07.09.2009

D1

Home United

3-0

Balestier Khalsa

3 draws in last 4 matches, Home United priced today to end that.

LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 8th after only 10 matches.

HOME TEAM –HOME UNITED

RECENT HOME FORM– WWWLW since the league started again Feb 2011. Loss was a 1-0 v Etoile.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWWWWWDLLWW – losses against Etoile and Singapore Armed forces so not shocks.

DLL was against 1st, 3rd and 4th. – coincidence?

GOAL TRENDS – Average 2.06 scored overall and have kept 5 clean sheets since Feb 2011. 13 goals have been scored in the last half hour of matches.

STREAKS – 4 without a draw, 5 matches overall without a draw

AWAY TEAM - BALASTIER

RECENT AWAY FORM – have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches away which is interesting. DWDWL – comprehensive loss to Tampines could be replicated by Home United today. 0-0 against Etoile though might signal a 0-0 cover today if backing Home United.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDDWLLDLWWL – losses against Tampines, Albirex, Gomback and Singapore Armed forces ( 1st, 6th, 5th and 3rd) Good sign for 4th placed Home United today?

GOAL TRENDS – have not managed to score in the first 20 minutes of matches this season which automatically means laying them for that period in the hope Home United score first.

Average 0.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded this season ( since Feb 2011)

STREAKS – 4 without a draw, 2 away without a draw,

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – not many matches to go on but it seems that Balestier struggle against the top 5 which is good news for 2nd placed Home United today. No strong research as Singapore league is not on www.soccerstats.com. Only loss at home for Home was against Etoile and have only not won against top 4 sides. Baletier are 9th and so this should go with the odds.

Baletier have kept 3 clean sheets away in 5 but generally against other than top 5 sides. Still back Home today and a 0-0 cover perhaps if the markets are liquid enough.

HEAD TO HEADS

16.10.2010

D1

Levski Sofia

4-1

Pirin Blagoevgrad

24.04.2010

D1

Levski Sofia

2-0

Pirin Blagoevgrad

08.11.2009

D1

Pirin Blagoevgrad

0-2

Levski Sofia

13.06.2009

D1

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1-1

Levski Sofia

29.04.2009

Cup

Pirin Blagoevgrad

1-0

Levski Sofia

Have won the last 3, conceding only 1. Away match may be tight for Levski.

LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 12th

HOME TEAM PIRIN

RECENT HOME FORM – LLWWW since Winter break. Wins against 7th, 11th and 13th ( last 2 either side of them in the league.)Kept a clean sheet in those 3 wins. Recent home losses though against 1st and 6th

RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLDWLWLW – last 3 wins at home and already mentioned above.

GOAL TRENDS – average 1.17 scored at home and 0.92 conceded. Have only scored 4 in the first 40 minutes of 2nd half.

STREAKS – 3 home matches won in a row. 7 home matches without a draw.

AWAY TEAM LEVSKI -

RECENT AWAY FORM – WWDW since return from Winter Break. 0-0 draw away to 10th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – LWWWWDWWW – very consistent performers overall. Draw was an away draw mentioned above. Loss was against 3rd placed CSKA sofia.

GOAL TRENDS – average 2.08 scored per match and 0.83 conceded. Have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 away matches.

STREAKS – 3 wins in a row, 6 overall without a loss. 3 away without a loss.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – pirin’s recent home form looks good, 3 wins, none conceded but it is against the top 4 that they struggle, so we must distinguish this.

7 matches without a draw for Pirin plays 1 draw in 8. Back levski and cover 0-0 as Levski recently drew 0-0 away to 10th. Looks like this should be another 2-0 to Levski ?

4pm - Kaliakra v CSKA Sofia - 1.38 away
4pm - Litex Lovech v Sliven - 1.05 home

No sign in head to heads for an emphatic home win?
6pm - Inverness CT v Celtic - 1.31 away

HEAD TO HEADS

16.03.2011

Cup

Inverness CT

1-2

Celtic FC

27.11.2010

PR

Celtic FC

2-2

Inverness CT

22.09.2010

LC

Celtic FC

6-0

Inverness CT

14.08.2010

PR

Inverness CT

0-1

Celtic FC

01.02.2009

PR

Inverness CT

0-0

Celtic FC

Celtic have scored a minimum of 2 in their last 3 head to heads, albeit only one Premiership head to head.Has been generally tight in the SPL at CT.

LEAGUE POSITION- 7th v 2nd and yet again, Celtic must win this game in hand to take a 2 point advantage

HOME TEAM – INVERNESS CT

RECENT HOME FORM – DLLDLWLWD – recent draw against Hearts reasonable enough. Have kept it tight at home against top 3. 1-1 Rangers, 1-0 loss to celtic, 1-1 draw Hearts.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLDWLLWLDDWL – recent wins against St Johnstone ( twice) and Motherwell.Overall against top 3, we have 4 score draws and 2 1-0 losses. Hmmm!

GOAL TRENDS – 38% over 2.5 goals at home. Only 3 of the last 15 matches over 2.5 goals and you could just see Terry Butcher wanting to stick 2 fingers up at Celtic and their title hopes. Have only kept 6 clean sheets all season and conceded in all matches against top 3. Have failed to score in 3 of last 8 matches.

STREAKS – no defeat in 2 at home and no draw in 2 overall.

AWAY TEAM - CELTIC

RECENT AWAY FORM – WLWWDWWWLWWD – draw recently v Rangers, loss v Motherwell can be written off.Previous draw v Hamilton and loss v Hearts. Outside the top 6 Celtic generally win away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWWWWLWWWWWDW – more likely to win probability wise and the recent loss and draw were aberrations.

GOAL TRENDS – 44% overs away from home. 62% clean sheets away from home. 3 of last 8 over 2.5 goals. 13 of last 18 matches have see Celtic keep a clean sheet. Celtic have only failed to score in 3 matches all season.

STREAKS – 7 overall without defeat. Have kept clean sheets in last 3 away matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – standout stat for me is that celtic have kept clean sheets in last 3 away matches, and in 13 of last 18 matches. I suspect if they are to concede it will be a single goal, so perhaps a back of Celtic with a 1-1 cover given CT have been tight against top 3. Celtic have only failed to score in 3 matches this season and given that recent clean sheet stat, we can assume surely they will score first?

745pm - Man Utd v Schalke - 1.52 home


310 KELSO

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Indian Pipe Dream, 15/8 Soft Spoken Guy, 2/1 Jurisdiction.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A small field but still a tricky puzzle to solve. Indian Pipe Dream comes here in good form but slight preference is for chase debutant JURISDICTION, who goes very well here. Soft Spoken Guy would probably prefer some juice in the ground. [Chris Wilson]

3 horses and 2 places for this 3 mile chase - pure probability . No clear fav at all, all closely matched and , again, simple probability chance

530 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Kauto Star, 7/2 Nacarat, 9/2 Kempes, 11/1 Tranquil Sea, 14/1 Roberto Goldback, 20/1Follow The Plan, 20/1 Rare Bob, 33/1 Vic Venturi.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks marked for export for the fourth time in five years, with KAUTO STAR set to put his name on a trophy twice won by the stable with Neptune Collonges. He should be chased home by Nacarat.
[Alan Sweetman]

Will be very exciting to watch and should involve the fromt 4 for the 3 places? AS Spotlight recounts, a non Irish horse has won this 4 of the last 5 years.

605 PUNCHESTOWN

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Waaheb, 5/1 Steps To Freedom, 6/1 Aupcharlie, 7/1 Lovethehigherlaw, 15/2 Go All The Way, 9/1 Ceol Rua, 16/1 Big Time Billy, 16/1 Caolaneoin, 16/1 Jenari, 20/1 Fionn Tra, 20/1 Letter Of Credit, 25/1 Dazzling Susie, 25/1 Shadow Eile, 25/1 Starling Force, 25/1 Tusa Eire.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Waaheb is the talking horse here but there are more than enough reasons to take him on andSTEPS TO FREEDOM makes plenty of appeal after a cracking effort at Aintree. The Cheltenham third and fourth meet again, with Go All The Way entitled to improve for that second career run and respect. [Johnny Ward]

Waaheb I believe was a one a dayer previously and is a slight price gapper here.

550 SEDGEFIELD

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Goodwood Starlight, 3/1 Hobsons Bay, 9/1 Just Rio, 16/1 Baralaka, 16/1 Cauldron, 20/1Hedgerow, 25/1 Glasson Lad, 33/1 Golden Emperor, 50/1 Quo Vista.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GOODWOOD STARLIGHT sets a clear standard and it looks significant that his astute trainer is willing to send him on a 634-mile round trip. For all that there are some unexposed opponents, Hobsons Bay is the only one that has shown anything remotely good enough to trouble the selection.[Stuart Redding]

Clues from Spotlight - long distance to travel for the fav here, one of only 2 under 10/1


210 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 York Glory, 5/2 Calaf, 5/1 El Maachi, 10/1 Dr Red Eye, 10/1 On The Lash, 12/1 Cuckney Bear, 25/1 Kian´s Delight, 25/1 Tootie Flutie, 33/1 Cannon Bolt, 33/1 Coracle, 66/1 Scottish Lake, 66/1 Terrys Flutter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: If Calaf settles better he can go well in this company, but YORK GLORY has done enough in his two runs at Lingfield to think he would be winning races and this surface could be just what he wants judged on his pedigree. His stable continue in good order and the return to 7f is another positive.[Paul Smith]

A class 6 maiden on Southwell's fibresand perhaps not of huge appeal but York Glory has posted a 32 form on the all weather, and is one of 3 under 10/1 and 6 under 33/1 who should fight out the places on fibresand debut.

SHORTLIST

6pm - Inverness CT v Celtic - 1.31 away - a must win to take Celtic 2 points ahead of Rangers - any dangers? Well Caley Thistle have a decent enough tight record against the top 3 albeit not winning. But a run of draws and 1-0 losses hints at a potential spoil this evening? Caley have failed to score in 3 of last 8 and Celtic have kept cleansheets in last 3 away matches and in 13 of last 18 matches. I suspect first goalscorer would be Celtic. CT are unlikely to score 2 goals so 1-1 looks the obvious insurance bet. Celtic have only failed to score in 3 matches this season so I am assuming they will score again and Caley have failed to score in 8 of their last 15 matches.

310 KELSO - pick a horse and hope he does not get beaten by 2 others in a 3 horse race. these 3 cannot be split and this is a superb probability race.

530 PUNCHESTOWN - The market suggest Kauto Star, Nacarat and Kempes will dominate this race - good news for place only backers that it is an 8 runner race and 3 places.

550 SEDGEFIELD - Goodwood Starlight and Hobsons Bay the 2 to focus on here. - Poor form for the favourite last time out is a slight worry but why is he 4/6? 1.12 to place is not giving anything away.



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