HEAD TO HEADS
| 17.12.2010 | D1 | Trabzonspor | 3-0 | Kardemir Karabükspor | |
| 24.09.2008 | Cup | Trabzonspor | 2-0 | Kardemir Karabükspor |
Only 1 read head to head of significance saw an easy home win without conceding.
LEAGUE POSITION - 8th play 2nd. Kardemir have nothing to play for at all. Trab are equal on points with Fenerbahce and are 2nd because they are 7 goals inferior in goal difference. Both matches begin at 6pm and I am slightly worried that Trab will throw in the towel if Fenerbahce are winning 3-0 for instance unless they feel they can score 11 to take the title on goal difference!!
HOME TEAM - KARDEMIR
RECENT HOME FORM - DLWDWLWL - Lost 1-0 to Fenerbahce and drew 1-1 with 3rd placed Bursaspor.Wins have generally come against bottom 9 but beat 4th placed 3-2 at home recently. Tight against top teams .
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDLWLLWDLW - inconsistent recently last 2 wins against 12th and 15th and draw against 13th so no major shocks against top teams recently.
GOAL TRENDS - 69% over 2.5 goals at home. 3 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals. 1-0 loss to Fenerbahce was only 2 matches ago so ample warning to Trabonspor about possible defensive frustrations from the home side. Have conceded in 12 of the last 14 matches. Have failed to score in 3 of the last 5 matches.
STREAKS - 4 at home without a draw.
AWAY TEAM - TRABZONSPOR
RECENT AWAY FORM - LWWWWWDW - very respectable - loss against Fenerbahce and draw v 9th placed team. Only 1 win away all season and 3 draws which were all 0-0's - maybe an insurance on 0-0?
RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDWWWWWWDWWW - one 0-0 draw and one 3-3 home draw
GOAL TRENDS - 56% over 2.5 goals relatively low because again we have a strongly defensive away side. 31 scored and 11 conceded. So all in their favour today. .Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. Kept a clean sheet in 5 matches on the trot, but not in the last 2 matches. Have only failed to score in 6 all season, but 4 of those were away.
STREAKS - 7 without defeat away , 14 without defeat overall.0-0, 0-1, 0-0 against 6th, 7th and 9th in the league slight concern for Trab.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - again we need to inject some recent circumstances into this match as well as research. Trab need Fenerbahce to draw or lose, and them to win, in order to win the title.
Goal difference realistically means that if Fenerbahce win, Trab will have to win by Fener's goal difference in their game +8 in order to take the title by 1 goal! My concern here is if Fenerbahce are winning easily by half time, Trab will know that really they cannot score 7+ in one match away from home to get the title.
HEAD TO HEADS
| 18.12.2010 | D1 | Fenerbahçe SK | 1-0 | Sivasspor | |
| 04.09.2010 | CF | Sivasspor | 0-3 | Fenerbahçe SK | |
| 31.01.2010 | D1 | Sivasspor | 1-5 | Fenerbahçe SK | |
| 16.08.2009 | D1 | Fenerbahçe SK | 3-0 | Sivasspor | |
| 21.04.2009 | Cup | Sivasspor | 0-0 | Fenerbahçe SK | |
| 04.03.2009 | Cup | Fenerbahçe SK | 3-1 | Sivasspor |
Generally in head to heads, Fener hold the upper hand Last match saw a 77 minute winner which is in stark contrast to the 5 and 3 they scored in previous league matches. The 5 and 3 scoreline is much more in keeping with a 1.19 shot. To put this match into context, Fenerbahce are equal on points but vastly superior in goal difference and realistically cannot be caught if they win ( unless Trab score double figure goals without conceding today)
LEAGUE POSITION - 15th v 1st - Sivasspor are safe from harm, and Fener just need to win I think with the safety of a 7 goal margin over joint top Trab.
HOME TEAM - SIVASSPOR
RECENT HOME FORM - DLWWWDDD - 3 1-1 draws on the trot and last 2 wins were 1-0's but perhaps foot off the pedal now they are home and free. In 2 of the draws, Sivasspor needed late goals , one a 92nd minute equaliser. Similarly one of the wins was a 1-0 with a 92nd minute goal. Have lost at home against 2nd and 3rd, and drawn with 4th, so perhaps top teams a bridge too far.
RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWWWWDLDDD - last 4 draws were 1-1's
GOAL TRENDS - 31% over 2.5 goals at home -scored 23, conceded 20 - 4 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals ( but those 4 were 1-1's) - have conceded in all of last 6 matches. Have scored in all last 15 matches.
STREAKS - drawn last 3 at home. 6 matches without losing at home.
AWAY TEAM - FENERBAHCE
RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWWWWWW - superb stuff scoring 3,4,2,3,3,5,1 in their last 7 matches away. And it is those goals that could have wrestled the title from Trab come 8pm. 3 losses against 5 of top 6 away from home. Wins away from 7th to 18th apart from 1 loss against 13th.
RECENT OVERALL FORM -WWWWWWWWWWDWWWWWW - nothing more to say really.Draw was 0-0 home draw against Bursaspor.
GOAL TRENDS - 69% over 2.5 goals away.Scored 39 and conceded 23. Only 2 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept clean sheets in 4 of last 5 matches. Have only failed to score in 3 matches all season, 2 of those at home.
STREAKS - 8 match away winning streak, 11 matches without a draw away, 17 matches unbeaten overall.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - out of Trabonzspor and Fenerbahce,it is the latter surely holding all the aces. 7 goals difference and playing a team safe from harm with little to play for. Fener will be motivated if Trab are leading ( as these matches go off at the same time) but Trab will be dispirited if Fener are leading by a comfortable margin because of the goal difference.
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 So You Think, 4/1 Famous Name, 10/1 Campanologist, 100/1 Mid Mon Lady, 100/1 Windsor Palace.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SO YOU THINK is one of the most exciting horses in Europe and it will be a major surprise if he fails to win his first European Group 1 in this. The admirable Famous Name is the one for the forecast. [Kevin Blake]
If Famous Name is relegated to 2nd favourite, and the fav is so short, then this means that So you think must be some horse! A great probability race. 2 at 100/1, one at 16/1 and we have a 1/5 and 9/2 horse. Surely Famous Name is a reasonable place only bet here?
525 CURRAGH
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Apache, 6/1 No Such Number, 6/1 Zafarqand, 7/1 Hudson, 10/1 Irish Review, 10/1Sportsmaster, 12/1 Fountain Of Honour, 16/1 Luggers Hall, 20/1 Ajiaal, 25/1 Bankroll, 25/1 Cloudgazer, 33/1 Mighty Whitey, 33/1 Pure Greed, 50/1 Ansgar, 50/1 Argentinian Tango, 50/1 Indian Landing, 50/1 Lead Or Bread, 50/1 Surf´s Up, 50/1 To Pack, 66/1 Delphi Mountain, 100/1 Cash Or Casualty, 100/1 Houdini Bright, 100/1 Phlorian.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: APACHE has enough ability to win this if he wants to, though there are enough newcomers of potential interest on paper to suggest he will be made to work. Of those, Hudson is particularly interesting. [Johnny Ward]
Zararquand is the market mover here into 9/4 - trust Apache to at least place?
215 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Mr Tallyman, 6/1 Master Performer, 7/1 Rangefinder, 7/1 Stronghaven, 9/1 Santiago Boy, 11/1 Northern Acres, 12/1 Barliffey, 14/1 Gleann Na Ndochais, 16/1 Parky, 16/1 Talk Of Saafend, 16/1 Zaru, 20/1 Bello Regalo, 40/1 Golden Emperor, 40/1 Kalanisi Kid, 50/1 Acol, 50/1 Flyjack.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A shortage of credible contenders despite the big field. MR TALLYMAN sets a fair if hardly insurmountable standard on his Sedgefield novice handicap third back from nearly a year off recently and may be good enough, with Stronghaven and Master Performer taken to fill the placings. [Mel Cullinan]
Master Performer is the market mover in a race which sees 4 only under 16/1 but this is a big ( 16) runner novices hurdle.
315 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Omokoroa, 9/4 Another Dimension, 11/4 Latin Connection, 9/1 Mocha, 33/1 Norminster, 33/1Tobayornottobay, 50/1 Bubses Boy, 100/1 Highland Cathedral, 100/1 Rats, 100/1 Supreme Dawn.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Three stand out on form. With Omokoroa's jumping leaving something to be desired and Latin Connection a tricky ride and not sure to stay it can pay to side with ANOTHER DIMENSION, despite the forecast fast ground being an unknown factor.[Frank Carter]
4 under 33/1 to dominate for the 3 places with clear rounds of course?
455 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Abragante, 4/1 Sacred Mountain, 9/2 Special Portrait, 11/2 L´oudon, 7/1 Floreana, 14/1 Beau Traveller, 20/1 Kilbricken Rose, 40/1 Royal Man.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: One-time decent handicapper ABRAGANTE did enough when winning a Sedgefield hunters chase last time to suggest that he can take care of these rivals and go in again. Sacred Mountain may be next best. [Mel Cullinan]
8 runners and 3 places so ideal for place only betting. Abragante a strong favourite could place with a clear round in a race where 3 are 20/1 or bigger.
220 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Fuschia Belle, 4/1 Phoenix Rose, 7/1 All Guns Blazing, 10/1 After Dark, 16/1 Five Foot Fillie, 20/1 Cruise Over Beal, 20/1 Goldfish, 20/1 Kate Appleby, 25/1 Clogher Storm, 25/1 Hollymount Lass, 25/1 Justfour, 25/1Phar From Fashion, 33/1 Busy Monkey, 50/1 Angel Star, 50/1 Arctic Clouds, 50/1 Delia´s Girl, 50/1 Now Were Broke, 50/1The Blarney Rose.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bumper winner FUSCHIA BELLE is an absolute stand-out in this company. She should have little trouble in dealing with Phoenix Rose and All Guns Blazing who appear to the main contenders for a share of the money.Fammi Sognare could feature if getting a run. [Alan Sweetman]
"absolute standout" but the big field! That big field though should ensure a good price for the place in this maiden hurdle.
245 LONGCHAMP
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It hasn't often paid to oppose GOLDIKOVA over the years and, although now a 6yo, she showed no signs of deterioration last season and can repeat last year's success in the race. Runner-up 12 months ago, Byword again looks the main threat, ahead of Dick Turpin, who'll be making a quick reappearance after his Lockinge disappointment. [Mark Brown]
Goldikova surely the standout here!
SHORTLIST
5pm - Guimaraes v Porto - 1.36 away - I normally don't get involved in Cup Matches but then Porto are no normal side this season and I would be cursing my luck if avoiding to back them again after their 1-0 win in the Europa League.
I am presuming this is a Cup Final as www.scorestime.com as this match with Porto first. Expect Porto to, yet again, do what is necessary. Last 2 meetings have been worryingly close. 1-0 last time until a 90th+ minute winner after Opponents got a red card, and a 1-1 prior to that which was some achievement for Guimaraes as that was one of 3 draws only for Porto all season.
6pm - Karabukspor v Trabzonspor - 1.28 away - should win and good for traders but heads might go down if Fener are winning easily.
6pm - Sivasspor v Fenerbahce - 1.19 away - only nerves perhaps are the spanner in the works for Fener. Fener must simply match Trab in what ever they do as long as Trab have not scored 8 in the process. A win for Fener and they win the title ( goal difference seems insurmountable for Trab) against a Sivasspor side safe from harm.
310 CURRAGH - it takes some horse to relegate FAmous Name to also ran today and So you think must be some beast.1.22 to win and 1.08 to place. What interests me here is FAmous Name's 1.46 to place in a race which should involve 3 under 100/1 for 2 places. Campanoligist is the 14/1 spoiler.
315 KELSO - 4 under 33/1 makes this race extremely appealing.Omokoroa is 1.16 to place, Latin Connection 1.35 ( illiquid) and Another dimension 1.44 .
245 LONGCHAMP - Goldikova must place surely? I do not know what the place only price will be until nearer the off. - No Betfair SP in France is a pity.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
6pm - Sivasspor v Fenerbahce - 1.19 away - the advantage is with Fenerbahce here and only nerves should stop them.
310 CURRAGH - So you think must be some horse if Famous NAme is as big as 9/2. BAck the win at 1.22 or Famous Name to place at 1.46 ( although the latter is more devastating in Group 3 company)
5pm - Guimaraes v Porto - 1.36 away - faith in the treble for Porto? Last 2 matches in the league quite tight but this will crown off an exemplary season. Slight concern that this could go to extra time.
245 LONGCHAMP - Goldikova surely has it to place here?
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