Sunday, 8 May 2011

8th May

That's 3 rock solid bets on the trot now and the kind I should be finding daily. Valencia scored 2 in no time for the over 1.5 goals bet.

1230pm - Augsburg v FSV Frankfurt - 1.29 home

HEAD TO HEADS

11.12.2010

D2

FSV Frankfurt

1-2

FC Augsburg

25.04.2010

D2

FSV Frankfurt

1-1

FC Augsburg

04.12.2009

D2

FC Augsburg

2-0

FSV Frankfurt

12.04.2009

D2

FSV Frankfurt

2-1

FC Augsburg

Augsburg have not lost the last 3 head to heads

LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 12th. 6 points behind Hertha Berlin and maybe the title is slipping away from Augsburg. A win, however will keep the pressure on Hertha Berlin. Frankfurt are safe and have nothing to play for at all.

HOME TEAM – AUGSBURG

AUGSBURG RECENT HOME FORM – WDWLDWWWDL – losses and draws at home have come generally against top 10 sides. From 11th -18th inclusive, 6 wins and a 2-2 draw v Osnabruck.. 2 recent losses at home have come against 3rd and 10th

AUGSBURG RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDWWWDWWDWLD – only 1 loss in last 12 overall.Unbeaten home and away against teams outside the top 10

AUGSBURG GOAL TRENDS – 56% over 2.5 goals at home. 44% clean sheets at home. Have scored 29 and conceded only 13 goals at home. 6 of last 7 matches under 2.5 goals. Kept clean sheets in 5 matches on the trot, but not in last 2 matches. 2,2,1,3,2,2,3 scored against bottom 8 sides at home ( of which Frankfurt is one)

AUGSBURG STREAKS – 2 at home without a win.

AWAY TEAM - FRANKFURT

FRANKFURT RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLLLDLD – 2 score draws recently against 14th and 16th away from home. Have lost against all of the top 5 away from home, albeit 1-0’s against 3rd and 4th

FRANKFURT RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLDLLLLLDLLWDL – very poor overall form.only 1 win against 8thplace at home in recent matches. Lost 7 and drawn 1 home and away against top 5.

FRANKFURT GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 over 2.5 goals away from home. 3 of last 5 under 2.5 goals but 16 of last 21 matches over 2.5 goals so general trend is clear. Frankfurt have conceded 6,3,2,2,3,2,2,1 in last few away matches.

FRANKFURT STREAKS – 9 away without a win

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Frankfurt’s recent form is probably the reason Augsburg are so short at home, because I was thinking looking at Augsburg’s stats that they were not the stats of a 1.29 shot! Motivation is with Augsburg quite clearly at the moment.Augsburg have not lost at home outside of the top 10 ( where Frankfurt reside). 2,2,1,3,2,2,3 scored by Augsburg against bottom 8 sides at home ( of which Frankfurt is one) is fairly consistent and averaging 2+ at home against bottom 8 sides. Frankfurt away have conceded 6,3,2,2,3,2,2,1 in their last 8 away matches which should make them vulnerable today. 9 away matches without a win for Frankfurt and it looks as if they are opposable today.

Goal trends are a little mixed – 6 of last 7 Augsburg matches under 2.5 goals and 3 of Frankfurt’s last 5 matches under 2.5 goals but look at Frankfurt’s concession rate away from home recently and note too that 16 of Frankfurt’s last 21 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Possible correct score bet? 2-0, 1-0, 2-1? Speculative because of the inconsistent goals trends.

1245pm - Kilmarnock v Celtic - 1.32 away - McSod's law dictates you back Celtic when they lose, leave Celtic alone and they win by 4! Pitiful performance against Inverness hints that any potential involvement here should be via neutral goals bets just to ensure surprises are covered? Rangers won easily so this is, as ever, a must must win for the Bhoys.

HEAD TO HEADS

Wed

20/04/11

PRL

Kilmarnock

0 - 4

Celtic

View events

More info

Tue

21/12/10

PRL

Celtic

1 - 1

Kilmarnock

View events

More info

Sun

19/09/10

PRL

Kilmarnock

1 - 2

Celtic

View events

More info

Sat

27/03/10

PRL

Celtic

3 - 1

Kilmarnock

View events

More info

Sat

13/03/10

SCC

Kilmarnock

0 - 3

Celtic

View events

More info

Tue

02/02/10

PRL

Kilmarnock

1 - 0

Celtic

View events

More info

Sat

31/10/09

PRL

Celtic

3 - 0

Kilmarnock

View events

More info

Wed

04/03/09

PRL

Kilmarnock

1 - 2

Celtic

Another away match for the Bhoys but they won 0-4 last time.

LEAGUE POSITION – 5th v 2nd. Nothing to play for for Kilmarnock and Celtic are in the doo doo .1 match in hand and 4 points behind Rangers. A loss will almost certainly hand the title to Rangers.

HOME TEAM - KILMARNOCK

KILMARNOCK RECENT HOME FORM – WDLDWWDLD – last 2 draws against Caley Thistle and 2-2 v Hearts. At home to Old Firm, it is 2-3 loss to Rangers and 0-4 loss to Celtic.

KILMARNOCK RECENT FORM OVERALL – WLLWWLWDDLLD – 2 of last 3 losses were against Old Firm. 3 losses and a 1-1 away draw against Celtic in the 4 home and away matches against Old Firm.

KILMARNOCK GOAL TRENDS – 65% over 2.5 goals at home. 25 scored 24 conceded. Last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 7 of last 11 matches over 2.5 goals. 3 of last 4 home matches over 2.5 goals with the exception a 1-1. Kilmarnock have conceded 4,4,2 in their last 3 matches.

KILMARNOCK STREAKS – 3 at home without a win.

AWAY TEAM – CELTIC

CELTIC RECENT AWAY FORM – WWDWWWLWWDL – recent losses both shocks and both away. Recent losses against 6th and 7th, and playing 5th today

CELTIC RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWLWWWWWDWL – 2 losses we know about and draw was 0-0 v Rangers.

CELTIC GOAL TRENDS – 47% over 2.5 goals away from home. 59% clean sheets away from home did not stop Caley thistle scoring 3 last match. 3 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept cleansheets in 4 of last 6 matches, but not in last 2 matches. Have failed to score in only 1 of last 8 matches and in 3 all season. Over 2.5 goals against 4th, 5th and 6th away already this season.

CELTIC STREAKS – 2 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – I don’t know what to make of Celtic, they have an Arsenal like zeal for fecking it all up. On a pure stats basis, Killy have conceded 7 at home to Rangers and Celtic. 2 of last 3 losses were against Old Firm. Kilmarnock have conceded 4,4,2 in their last 3 matches. 3 at home without a win for Killy.

Celtic’s last 2 losses have both been away.

On a pure motivation perspective, this is a must win for Celtic and a win and lose nothing for Killy.Not a team I am afraid I can trust , this Celtic side, after an out of the blue piss poor performance against Caley Thistle. I note, though, that an equally pitiful performance away to Motherwell was followed by 5 wins on the trot, 3 at home and 2 away. A match I would put at the bottom of the pile and I would put preference to a match as good as Valencia v Sociedad last night with the kind of quality stats we can sink our teeth into ( 94% over 2.5 goals away from home for Sociedad).

2pm - Bologna v Parma - 1.4 for the draw. We keep seeing these odds on draws in Seria B and they do not seem to materialise, or at least throughout the match the draws at odds on are layable to trade. 1.4 for a draw is ridiculous .
15th v 13th here and I am not going to do any research into this match suffice to say the 0-0 is at 3.85 - I was going to say back the 0-0 expecting it to be a little bigger. The market is illiquid as I write. £34,000 is waiting to back the draw in the match odds. I would insitinctually lay it at such short odds, but this match looks as if it has already been arranged .

3pm - FC Basel v Bellinzona - 1.2 home -in matches of only 10 teams, the stats from research are skewed as teams meet on numerous occasions throughout a season. So no indepth form analysis here. Basel are 2nd by 2 points and a win takes them top, albeit dependent on what Zurich do.A win will take Bellinzona 8th.
5 wins and a draw for Basel at home since a return from the Winter Break. 8 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. Have scored in all home matches.77% over 2.5 goals overall.
HAve beaten Bellinzona 4-0 already away.
Bellinzona have lost 5-0 and 4-0 away to top 3.Have conceded 2,4,3 in their last 3 away matches.


6pm - Barcelona v Espanyol - 1.18 home. When the finishing line is within grasp, perhaps we may see a hiccup or 2, or maybe this is barcelona!!

HEAD TO HEADS

18.12.2010

D1

Real CD Espanyol

1-5

FC Barcelona

17.04.2010

D1

Real CD Espanyol

0-0

FC Barcelona

12.12.2009

D1

FC Barcelona

1-0

Real CD Espanyol

21.02.2009

D1

FC Barcelona

1-2

Real CD Espanyol

Tough to beat at the Nou Camp when Espanyol meet. 1-2 loss and 1-0 win in 2009. Barca emphatic in 2010 away though

LEAGUE POSITION – TOP v 8th. A win takes Barca 8 points clear and the title in the bag I think. Espanyol go nowhere with a win.

HOME TEAM – BARCA

BARCA RECENT HOME FORM – 14 match home winning streak.

BARCA RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDWWWWDWWWDWL – loss away to Sociedad saw Barca score first. Last 3 draws all 1-1 draws.

BARCA GOAL TRENDS – 71% over 2.5 goals at home, 69% overall. Have failed to score in only 1 home match this season. Have conceded none in the first 15 minutes of matches, and 6 in the first half all season. Scored 44, conceded 10 at home this season. 47% clean sheets at home. Score first in 88% of matches.

BARCA STREAKS -14 match home winning streak – 16 without defeat at home.

AWAY TEAM - ESPANYOL

ESPANYOL RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWWLLLLDL – have lost away to all of top 5 , conceding 3,2,4,2.All away matches over 2.5 goals against top 7 sides.

ESPANYOL RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLLLWLLWLLDDLW – last 3 wins have been at home. Have lost all matches played home and away against top 4 sides.

ESPANYOL GOAL TRENDS – 59% over 2.5 goals away from home. Espanyol have not scored in their last 5 away matches. 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals but only 3 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 17 of last 20 matches. Have failed to score in alternate matches in last 8 matches.

ESPANYOL STREAKS – 6 away without a win, have not scored in last 5 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – a win today will wrap up the title. It is a choice between the tight scorelines of head to heads at the Nou Camp ( 1-2 loss to barca, 1-0 win) – or being swayed by Barca’s 1-5 demolition job last time these 2 met, Espanyol’s inability to score in last 5 away matches, Espanyol’s loss to all of top 5 away, all over 2.5 goals matches .

Slightly conflicting goal stats here. Sub 1.2 , as you know, should signal goals and a 3-4 goal win, so speculators can hope for over 3.5 goals/over 4.5 goals trades but note the last head to heads.

A correct score bet to nil for Barca might pay off too if Espanyol continue having trouble scoring away.

6pm - Bucaspor v Trabzonspor - 1.29 away

HEAD TO HEADS

03.12.2010

D1

Trabzonspor

2-0

Bucaspor

Only 1 head to head tells us bucaspor must be the promoted side. Easily done at home last time for Trab - well the 2nd goal was a penalty so perhaps not as easily as first thought..

LEAGUE POSITION – 16th v 2nd and the perennial bottom v top 25 points 3rd bottom with next best on 33 points, I feel Bucaspor should be resigned to their defeat. Trab, though, are 2nd only on goal difference here.to Fenerbahce – 3 goals behind.

HOME TEAM - BUCASPOR

BUCASPOR RECENT HOME FORM – WDWWLWLWL – no draw in 7 at home. –Recent wins against bottom 2 at home, and 4th and 8th. – 6 of last 7 home matches over 2.5 goals and the exception was a 2-0 loss. Against top 3 at home, lost recently 3-5 to Fenerbahce and 0-2 to Bursaspor. That 3-5 match perhaps a signal to Trabzonspor that they could impact goal difference today?

BUCASPOR RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLWLLLWLLWLLD – goal laden matches of late.

BUCASPOR GOAL TRENDS - – 47% over 2.5 goals at home. Have failed to score in 47% home matches – nearly 1 in 2!! A 14 match recent streak without a draw was ended by a 3-3 draw last match. Perhaps there is still some leverage to be had in opposing the draw ( as a trade only )with so many goals being scored in Bucaspor matches? – last 7 matches over 2.5 goals and last 3 matches have had 8,8,and 6 goals with Buc conceding 5,5,3. Have conceded in 16 of last 17 matches. Have scored in all of last 5 matches.

BUCASPOR STREAKS – 7 at home without a draw. 3 overall without a win.

AWAY TEAM - TRAB

RECENT AWAY FORM – WWLWWWWWD – last draw was 0-0 v 7th who they drew 0-0 with at home.Only loss away was against top team. Have won the 5 away matches against bottom 6 that they have played.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWWDWWWWWWDW – unbeaten in 12 matches Last draw was a 0-0 away draw and the 2 prior were home draws.

GOAL TRENDS – 53% over 2.5 goals away from home. Have kept a clean sheet in 47% of away matches. 4 of last 5 matches under 2.5 goals. Trab have kept a clean sheet in all of last 5 matches and 6 of last 7 matches.They have failed to score in only 1 of last 11 matches. Have scored 3,2,and 7 against bottom 4 sides away from home.

STREAKS – 6 without defeat away, 12 overall. 5 matches overall without conceding.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Bucaspor are bottom 3 regardless it would seem. Trab have to win and think about goal difference. They are doing their bit by keeping 5 clean sheets on the trot, 2 in last 2 away matches. 6 of last 7 home matches over 2.5 goals for bucaspor includes a 3-5 epic with the League leaders!Last 7 matches for Buc over 2.5 goals and last 3 matches had 8,8 and 6 goals with them conceding 5,5, and 3. This is in marked contrast to Trab keeping 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches and 4 of their last 5 matches being under 2.5 goals.

Trab have won the 5 away matches they have played against bottom 6 sides,and are unbeaten in last 12 overall.

Looks like a Trab win, but the goal trends are sending mixed messages, Buc with 22 in their last 3, Trab keeping 5 clean sheets in a row!

Remember we are not obligated to get involved in a match which may simply be too hard to read.

6pm - Karabukspor v Fenerbahce - 1.33 away

HEAD TO HEADS

05.12.2010

D1

Fenerbahçe SK

2-1

Kardemir Karabükspor

Fenerbahce were 2-0 up in this fixture which augurs well today

LEAGUE POSITION – 8th v 1st. As you know, Fener are top on goal difference only so emphasis on the win and preferably a clean sheet or more goals scored.

HOME TEAM KARDEMIR

KARDEMIR RECENT HOME FORM – WWDLWDWLW – have not played any of the top 2 at home but drew 1-1 with Bursaspor and beat Gazientaspor 3-2

KARDEMIR RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLDDLWWDDLWLLWD – inconsistency. Have lost both away matches against top 2 2-1 and 3-0. Inconclusive of course .Have only won 1 match in 15 against top 9 and that was the 3-2 home win.

KARDEMIR GOAL TRENDS – 73% over 2.5 goals at home is maybe something we can work with. 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 10 of last 12 matches.Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of the last 3 matches.

KARDEMIR STREAKS – 3 at home without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - FENERBAHCE

FENERBAHCE RECENT AWAY FORM – WLWWWWWWW – obviously solid away form Only 4 losses all season. They were away from home and 3 of them were away to top 4 sides. The inference here is that outside the top 5 should be a win for Fenerbahce. Fenerbahce have scored 3,4,4,2,3,5 in their last 6 matches away.

FENERBAHCE RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWWWWWWWWDWWWW – draw was 0-0 v 3rd in the league at home.

FENERBAHCE GOAL TRENDS -73% over 2.5 goals away from home and matches Kardemir’s 73% over 2.5 goals in their home matches. Over and under 2.5 goals have run alternately of late for Fener.U/O/U/O/U/O/U/O/U/O/U/O/U – That is quite some sequence and explained I think by the fact that the last 6 away matches have been over 2.5 goals and last 7 home matches under 2.5 goals.9 of last 15 matches have seen clean sheets from Fenerbahce. Only one of those 9 was an away match hinting that Fener concede away and eventually win.

FENERBAHCE STREAKS – 7 match away winning streak – 10 away without a draw.15 overall without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – of the top 2’s matches today in the Turkish league, this match looks more straightforward. 73% over 2.5 goals for both home side in home matches and away side in away matches is the kind of congruency we want to see. Fenerbahce’s recent winning streak puts them firmly in the driving seat, as does the fact they were 2-0 up when they last met Kardemir. Fenerbahce have conceded regularly away from home, yet still won, so enhanced bettors take note if Kardemir score first.

815pm - Porto v Pacos Ferreira - 1.26 home - well they keep winning even after winning the title so there is no let up from this great Porto side with a great attitude. No research here , rather just take a punt on Porto to continue their fine season? Fraught with dangers for as you know they have the title in the bag.


12pm - Wolves v West Brom 2.26 home

HEAD TO HEADS

20.02.2011

PR

West Bromwich

1-1

Wolverhampton

15.04.2008

LCh

Wolverhampton

0-1

West Bromwich

1-1 in recent February meeting and since then, West Brom are safe but Wolves of course far from safe.Wolves scored first on that occasion

LEAGUE POSITION – 19th v 13th and a win takes Wolves out of the bottom 3.and drops Blackpool in it. The incentive could not be greater.

HOME TEAM – WOLVES

WOLVES RECENT HOME FORM – WWLWLWWDLD – home form has been steady enough but oh how they wish those draws were wins. 3-3 against Spurs is a point salvaged, but 1-0 v Fulham is 2 points dropped with an 80th minute Fulham equaliser.

WOLVES RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLWLDWDWLLDLD – poor last 5 matches have left Wolves more desparate .

WOLVES GOAL TRENDS – 65% over 2.5 goals at home. Scored 25, conceded 26. Have conceded 16 goals in the last quarter of an hour.5 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals ( 2 1-1 draws also).Have conceded in last 5 matches. Have failed to score in 2 of the last 4 matches.

WOLVES STREAKS – 3 at home without a win. 5 overall without a win.

AWAY TEAM – WEST BROM

WEST BROM RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLLLDWWD – recent good away form has helped West Brom to safety. Last 3 matches over 3.5 goals.

WEST BROM RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDDDWDWWLDW - only losses recently against Chelsea and Man City is perfectly respectable.,

WEST BROM GOAL TRENDS – 71% over 2.5 goals away from home. Last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in all away matches this season Have conceded in all bar one match home and away all season. Have scored in all of last 10 matches .Have only won 1 of the 6 matches away to bottom 7 ( 1-3 away win v Brum)

WEST BROM STREAKS – 4 away without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – must win v safe now! These desperation stakes matches can herald some surprises, so with the caveat in place, what do the stats tell us? Well 65% home for Wolves and 71% away over 2.5 goals for West brom is a good starting point. Wolves have failed to score in 2 of the last 4 matches. Team news ideal as Kevin Doyle and Ebanks-Blake are described in the Racing post as “ doubts” – as 2 forwards, it is vital news for final decision making! We must acknowledge this is a nothing game for West Brom but as this is a local derby of sorts, we should be assured a good attitude from them as far as giving it their all.

2pm - Inter v Fiorentina - 1.79 home

205pm - Stoke v Arsenal - 1.84 away

HEAD TO HEADS

23.02.2011

PR

Arsenal FC

1-0

Stoke City

27.02.2010

PR

Stoke City

1-3

Arsenal FC

24.01.2010

Cup

Stoke City

3-1

Arsenal FC

05.12.2009

PR

Arsenal FC

2-0

Stoke City

24.05.2009

PR

Arsenal FC

4-1

Stoke City

Pretty clear cut in the Premiership –Arsenal win and can score 2,3 or more if on song.

LEAGUE POSITION – 12th v 3rd and a loss for Chelsea today and win for Arsenal will put them on the same points as Chelsea albeit with inferior goal difference. Can Arsenal win the title if the top 2 draw today and Arsenal win their 3 remaining matches? It would have to take Man Utd losing /drawing last 3 matches for that to be a consideration. Still, I feel there is enough for Arsenal to play for to warrant them taking this match ultra seriously. Stoke are safely tucked in mid table mediocrity dreaming of more of the same next year.

HOME TEAM - STOKE

STOKE RECENT HOME FORM – LLWWWDWDW – held Chelsea to a 1-1 last draw after scoring first as well. At home to the top 4, Stoke have lost 1-2 to United, drawn 1-1 with Chelsea and City – all of those matches have been tight and late goals have played a part – enough to suggest that Stoke can be a side to frustrate.

STOKE RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLWLLDLWDLDWD – it is the away form that largely contributes the defeats into the overall form.

STOKE GOAL TRENDS – 41% over 2.5 goals at home. Have kept clean sheets in 35% of home matches. 4 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals.Have kept a clean sheet in last 2 matches which includes Blackpool away - the only side to keep Blackpool from scoring at home. Stoke have only scored 1 goal in the first quarter of an hour this season so are immediately vulnerable at the start of a match.

STOKE STREAKS – 7 without defeat at home. 2 1-1 draws against 2 of the top 3 and nearly a 1-1 draw with United saved by a very late winner .

AWAY TEAM – ARSE

ARSE RECENT AWAY FORM – DWWDDWDL – loss was 2-1 at Bolton and threatened to be a 1-1 until a 90thminute winner. Van Persie is a name consistently on away match scoresheets so we would want to see him today if backing Arsenal or contemplating a goals bet.

ARSE RECENT OVERALL FORM – DWWDDDWDDLW – too many draws for Arsenal has turned the season into “what might have been” Arsenal were 4-0 up away to Newcastle and 3-1 up away at Spurs and if translating those to 6 points would actually be vying for the title as I write!

ARSE GOAL TRENDS – 71% over 2.5 goals away from home. Average 2.11 scored away from home.Start the match with 13 in the first quarter of an hour, and remember Stoke have only scored one all season. 4 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals.

ARSE STREAKS – 2 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Arsenal still have a season to play for. 2nd place is realistic if United beat Chelsea and Arsenal win today. At least they will be on parity with Chelsea on points but inferior goal difference. The 1-1 seems to crop up regularly when Stoke meet the top 4, and was a profitable trade when Stoke met Man Utd too, despite the final scoreline of 2-1 to United.

Arsenal have only won 1 of their last 5 away matches and could be layable at 1.86 ( after all it is an odds on price) in the hope that Stoke can frustrate as they have done against the top 4 who have visited them.

410pm - Man Utd v Chelsea - 2.34 home

5pm - Twente v Ajax - 2.72 away -Dutch Cup match.

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